April 4, 2019 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Planting Reports Disappoint

Written by Sig Silber

U.S. and World Agriculture: Plus an Expanded Weather Forecast Section

Updated at 10 p.m. EDT April 5, 2019, to reflect the new Week 3 – 4 forecast which refines our assessment of how the drought will be impacted during late April. It also impacts the new planting season.

The Drought has shifted its location and we will go into that. It is not a serious problem yet as temperatures in most areas are expected to remain mostly moderate, but it’s something to monitor. Flooding is more of a concern. We have some new information on reservoirs, rivers, and early planting. We also discuss the Australian rice woes. Plus we provide our midweek weather forecast.

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Drought Shifts

1. Special Reports, Summary Weather Forecast and Information on how this Report is Organized.

Here is the current status of flooding.

More information can be found here.

March Crop and Soil Conditions Report

We left that in the normal position in this report. It is very interesting but long so you can read it there. It is called the March Report but probably only covers up to March 24 as it was issued on March 26 which was prior to the end of March.

Reservoirs and Rivers.

Summary Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast (helpful to predict drought and floods etc)

Here is the summary of the forecast for the next approximately twenty-five days. We provide this so that we can make our own assessment of the drought forecast. Here I provide the weather forecasts for different periods of time in which should allow the reader to assess the likelihood of this forecast working out as shown over the next three to four weeks. Since we publish this week on Thursday, we generally update the discussion for the Week 3 – 4 forecast when it is updated on Friday. This is important as the current Day 6 – 14 forecasts and the week-old week 3 – 4 forecast overlap to some extent.

Later we provide additional information relative to the weather forecast analysis but here is the summary.

First the Temperature Forecast.

This shows magnitude rather than the probability of being higher or lower than Normal and shows the middle day of the five day period.	Looks like there is a cool anomaly which will moderate but shift west and south a bit in Week -2 * warmer or cooler than climatology		The Week 3 – 4 forecast was issued on April 5. It is favorable for the Four-Corners drought but not the Washington State area or the Southern Tier east of Texas. .

And then the Precipitation Forecast

The five-day QPF is shown above. The units are different than the other maps i.e. in units of precipitation (inches) not probabilities of exceeding or being less than climatology.	The wet anomaly at middle lattiudes in Week – 1 will to some extent track the cool anomaly in Week 2.		The Week 3 – 4 forecast was issued on April 5. It is favorable for much of the newly forming mild Southern Tier Drought but not Texas and Louisiana.

Here is the discussion released today with the Week 3-4 Update.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Apr 20 2019-Fri May 03 2019

EL Nino conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The RMM MJO index depicts little to no MJO activity over the past couple of weeks. Both the GEFS and ECMWF suggest that the MJO is likely to remain weak during the next two weeks. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, the ECMWF, and the JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as forecasts from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental ensemble prediction systems. Consideration is also given to the possible evolution of the predicted circulation pattern for Week-2.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting troughs over the Aleutians and the western CONUS, and a ridge over mainland Alaska. Dynamical model ensembles from the CFS, ECMWF and JMA favor below normal 500-hPa height anomalies over the Aleutians and above normal 500-hPa height anomalies over mainland Alaska. Near to below normal 500-hPa height anomalies are also indicated over the western CONUS, while above normal 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the eastern or southeastern CONUS. All dynamical models favor near to above normal 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii.

Enhanced chances for above normal temperatures extend across much of Alaska underneath ridging, with probabilities exceeding 80 percent across parts of southwestern mainland Alaska. A predicted trough over the western CONUS favors elevated chances for below normal temperatures over parts of the Central Great Basin, the Southwest, the Central and Southern Rockies, and the Great Plains. Above normal temperatures are favored across the northern tier and eastern half of the CONUS, consistent with the CFS and SubX forecasts.

The Week 3-4 precipitation outlook indicates increased probabilities of above median precipitation for parts of the southeastern CONUS, while below median precipitation is forecast over southern New Mexico and southwestern Texas, consistent with the CFS and ECMWF forecasts. The predicted trough over the western CONUS enhances chances for above median precipitation over the northeastern CONUS, supported by the CFS/ECMWF/JMA correlation weighted forecasts. Anomalous ridging leads to enhanced probabilities of below median precipitation for western portions of mainland Alaska. Conversely, above normal precipitation is favored for the Aleutians underneath the trough forecast over the region.

Sea surface temperature anomalies are currently weakly negative across northwestern Hawaii and slightly positive around southeastern Hawaii. Dynamical model guidance, including the experimental SubX models, depict enhanced chances for above normal temperatures over the southeastern islands. Dynamical model precipitation forecasts favor below median precipitation which is consistent with weak El Nino conditions.

Additional Information on the forecast is provided later.

Organization of this Report

This report is now organized as follows:

1. Special Reports, Weather Forecast Summary, and information on how this Report is organized. .
2. Present Drought Conditions
3. Recent Weather
4. Selected information from our Weekly Weather Column (the forecast maps auto-update) and combined with brief commentary from me provides a forecast which I attempt to interpret re the likely change in drought conditions. But we will not repeat the forecast summary shown in the introduction as having duplicate information increases the chances of errors during updating.
5. Monthly Reports as they become available.
6. Science theme if we have one.
7. Economic Impacts of Weather other than on Agriculture. It will take time to get that part of the report going.
8. Reference Information.

Monthly Reports will include:

• Crop Report (Covered in Section 5)
• Analysis of the Prior Month’s Weather for the U.S.
• Analysis of the Prior Month’s Weather Internationally
• Current Status of Reservoirs and River Flow.

2. Present Drought Conditions

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

Below is the same map but just CONUS and with statistics and below that map I have provided a cut-out of the statistics which I think you can click on to enlarge. When you click on graphics that I have set up to enlarge often with your mouse right click and then click on “view image” and that will work.

Last Week	This Week

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

For those interested in a particular state, those maps can be accessed here.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the drought has been upgraded. The green is where the level of drought has been downgraded.

Minor improvements in Colorado.

No Change

No Change

Mostly Deterioration in Texas (except South Texas), Louisiana, MIssissippi

A repeat of last week. Deterioration in Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. But this is deterioration from essentially non-drought conditions.

Deterioration in Washington. Improvement in Colorado (whch shows up in two maps and it looks like improvmeent in one county in New Mexico.

This pair of maps (two map fragments for the current week) might make it easier to get a general idea of what is happening in the worst part of the drought area.

Last Week	This Week

Here is one additional approach to thinking about this area.

Some may find this way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

Here is the discussion which was issued with the Drought Monitor today.

This Week’s Drought Summary

Large portions of the continental United States remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. The Northeast was completely free of drought or abnormal dryness, as was the Midwest, where significant river flooding concerns continued. Short-term dryness continued in parts of central and western Texas, with some moderate and severe drought shifting northward, while widespread rain in southern Texas led to improvements in conditions there. Short-term precipitation deficits in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, southern Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle, and South Carolina led to the expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought in some of these areas. Moderate drought was also expanded in parts of north-central Washington in response to short-term precipitation deficits there. Another dry week in Hawaii led to degradation in drought conditions on most of the islands.

Northeast

Near-normal temperatures occurred in much of the Northeast this week, with below-normal precipitation common except for northern Maine and areas adjacent to Lakes Ontario and Erie. The entire region remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

Southeast

Relatively cool conditions prevailed in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama, while temperatures in Florida were closer to normal this week. Moderate rain fell in parts of northern Florida, southern Georgia, and South Carolina this week, but otherwise, the region was generally dry. In response to short-term dryness over the past 1 to 3 months, areal coverage of moderate drought expanded into the western Florida Panhandle, the Alabama Gulf Coast, parts of southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia. Short-term dryness in the past 1 to 3 months also led to moderate drought expanding a bit in southeastern parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

South

Aside from southern Texas and northeastern Oklahoma, much of the region was dry over the past week. Temperatures were below normal in most of the region, except for southwestern Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Moderate drought was added this week in southwestern Louisiana and in the Baton Rouge area because of short-term precipitation deficits over the past few months. Very dry conditions over the past 3 months led to moderate drought expanding into the Austin, Texas, area. Severe drought shifted northward in parts of south-central Texas in response to changes in short-term precipitation deficits there. After a widespread half-inch or more of precipitation this past week, short-term precipitation shortages were alleviated enough for widespread improvement in drought conditions in southern Texas. Elsewhere, some short-term dryness was taking place in Arkansas and Tennessee, but this was outweighed by longer-term precipitation surpluses.

Midwest

Moderate to heavy precipitation fell across much of the southern part of the region this week, particularly from northern Missouri eastward into Ohio. Temperatures this week were moderate to slightly below normal. The region remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, while significant flooding remained a concern.

High Plains

Widespread precipitation fell across much of Nebraska and eastern Kansas this week while most of the rest of the region experienced drier weather. On the whole, temperatures were relatively close to normal in the region, with a cold pocket in northwestern Nebraska and a few warmer areas showing up in the western Dakotas. Aside from a reduction in abnormal dryness around Colorado Springs in response to decreasing long-term precipitation deficits, no changes were made to the map this week east of the Continental Divide, and the High Plains remained nearly devoid of drought or abnormal dryness.

West

Widespread precipitation affected northern California, western Oregon, and the northern Sierra Nevada this week. Precipitation also fell in the mountains north of the Snake River Valley in Idaho, southwestern Montana, northern Utah, and central Wyoming. Relatively warm conditions prevailed along the Pacific Coast, and in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Elsewhere, temperatures were generally near normal. Moderate drought was expanded in parts of north-central Washington where precipitation deficits over the last 1-3 months led to the development of moderate drought. Low to very low snow water equivalent is also evident in the Idaho Panhandle and in northwestern Montana, and while this has not yet developed into moderate drought, abnormally dry conditions continue here. Abnormal dryness was reduced in the San Luis Valley in Colorado, where long-term precipitation deficits continued to abate.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Moderate and severe drought continued this week in southeastern Alaska, where precipitation deficits since January 1 range from 4 to 16 inches below normal. Above-normal temperatures have led to early runoff and high streamflow in some areas, but hydro-electric power production is still struggling in the region, and low water levels and high water temperatures are threatening salmon. Dry weather during the past week in most of Hawaii, particularly on the leeward sides of islands, continued the trend of dry conditions from March and led to deteriorating conditions for vegetation. On most islands, some areas saw a 1-category degradation from normal conditions to abnormal dryness or from abnormal dryness into moderate drought. Severe drought remained in southwestern Kauai. No changes were made in Puerto Rico this week.

Looking Ahead

Widespread precipitation is forecast this week from the Central Plains eastward through the East Coast. The heaviest amounts are forecast in eastern Texas and Arkansas and in the central Gulf Coast states. Precipitation is also forecast in the Sierra Nevada, northwestern California, western Washington and Oregon, and mountainous areas of Wyoming, northern Utah, and Idaho. Widespread above-normal temperatures are forecast over the next week, particularly in the central continental United States.

Here is part of the explanation for the overall situation in the West. Looking at the information from the network of SNOTEL sites. These are mainly in remote locations often at high elevations. they report by telecommunications hence their name.

Then we look at how much snow there is to melt when it is warmer.

Soil Conditions

Wildfires are still possible.

3. Recent Weather

The cold temperatures has had a negative impact on a number of different crops. But snow can protect certain crops.

This is more current but less informative.

This

Here is the SWE (water content of the snow) version.

Last Seven Days

For reference purposes here is the precipitation information for the prior seven days. It is not the same as what is shown in the USDA Crop Report since the crop week covers the Sunday to Saturday period which corresponds to the crop reports. But I have not included in this article the weather graphics that correspond to the crop week. I think it may have created confusion.

Below is the current seven-day period and updates in this article automatically every day. It is a better tool for making forecasts.

Current Month to Date.

And then temperature

You can generate a wide variety of different graphics here.

4. Current Forecast for Precipitation and Drought.

First, we show the current month forecast. Sometimes we show them in more than one place in this report for the convenience of the reader.

And here is the April one-month drought forecast which was issued on March 31, 2019. It will be updated on April 30, 2019.

Here is the Seasonal Forecast through June 30 which was issued on March 21, 2019 with the full Seasonal Outlook. These two forecasts are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here. The three-month Seasonal Drought Outlook will be updated on April 18, 2019.

We provided the summary approximately 25 Day Forecast earlier. Here is additional information that relates to this forecast.

First weather hazards

Additional information can be obtained here. We also now publish a Live Severe Weather article. The link to our Severe Weather Events article changes every Sunday night and the current version can always be found in the Directory which can be accessed here.

And we do not want to ignore floods. The updated map can be obtained here.

Let’s see if this animation works.

Here are additional useful graphics from my weekly report which update automatically. The forecast maps were shown in the Introduction.

First the Day 3 Mid-Atmosphere pattern.

The below is of interest.

5. New Reports

Topsoil	Subsoil

No Map this week.

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln