March 1, 2019 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Too Cold, Too Wet

Written by Sig Silber

U.S. and World Agriculture: Plus an Expanded Weather Forecast Section.

It is hard to believe but the #1 problem currently is too cold and too wet. This is seriously impacting agriculture. We included the full agriculture report in the article tonight. Between the strong MJO and the evolving but very weak El Nino, the Drought has been almost erased. Problems if any now tend to be too much precipitation in many states possibly compounded by colder than normal conditions.

Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.

1. Introduction and Special Reports.

This is a great presentation and should be watched. You should be able to get to it by clicking on the graphic but if that does not work click here.

New Drought Forecast

And some weather highlights from last week.

Drought Aftermath…Make Hay While the sun shines but beware if you are a buyer of hay.

This information and much else is available nationwide at the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) which can be found here.

Later we have a full weather forecast analysis but here is a summary.

First the Temperature Forecast .

This shows magnitude rather than probability of being higher or lower than Normal and shows the middle day of the five day period.	Looks like the Northern Tier and the Eastern Half of CONUS will be cool* in Week – 1. The stagnant pattern persists but in Week – 2 the cool anomaly is slowing shifting west! * warmer or cooler than climatology		↑ The cool anomaly shrinks and heads south. Re drought that is good for Texas. ← .

And then the Precipitation Forecast

The five day QPF is shown above. The units are different than the other maps i.e. in units of precipitation (inches) not probabilities of exceeding or being less than climatology.	It is generally wet. But there are a few small dry areas. In general it is favorable for additional drought improvement. But flooding has become a real problem.		↑ The extreme Southwest will be dry in Week 3 -4. Other than that it looks favorable for continued improvement with respect to drought. ←

This report is now organized as follows:

1. Special Reports and Introduction
2. Present Drought Conditions
3. Last Week’s Weather
4. Information from our Weekly Weather Column (the forecast maps auto-update) and combined with brief commentary from me provides a forecast which I attempt to interpret re the likely change in drought conditions
5. U.S. Crop Information
6. International Crop Information and related weather
7. Prior month’s weather and month-to-date weather excluding the prior week when I have that information. Drought is based on cumulative deficits.
8. A science theme if we have one.
9. Economic Impacts (it will time to get that part of the report going.
10. Reference Information. (This includes a lot of information on reservoirs and river flows)

1. Introduction.

2. Present Drought Conditions

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

Below is the same map but just CONUS and with statistics and below that map I have provided a cut-out of the statistics which I think you can click on to enlarge.

Last Week	This Week

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

We are showing the change maps for the states that improved the most and deteriorated the most.

This pair of maps might make it easier to get a general idea of what is happening in the worst part of the drought area.

Last Week	This Week

Here is one approach to thinking about this area.

This looks at evaporation

This map which covers the West may be useful also.

The change over time has been dramatic and this graphic is a week out of date. The change this week is even more impressive.

In the list of references there are links to a number of sources for that information including importantly the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) which can be accessed here. It makes it easier to find the regional and state reports. I am on the mailing list for some of them and found the regional report for the West via a search engine.

Streamflow for New Mexico. This table only goes through January.

Here is part of the explanation for the overall situation in the West. Looking at the information from the network of SNOTEL sites. These are mainly in remote locations often at high elevations. they report by telecommunications hence their name.

Then we look at how much snow there is to melt when it is warmer.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the drought has been upgraded. The green is where the level of drought has been downgraded.

Better in in Wyoming, Colorado. and North Dakota

No Change

No Change

Deterioration in Texas. Minor improvement in Louisiana.

Some deterioration in South Carolina

Changes in many states. For all of these states we provided individual maps earlier. Those maps will enlarge when clicked on this week.

Some may find this way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and hopefully it’s demise will also be fairly rapid. When you read these graphics remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

Here is the discussion which was issued with the Drought Monitor today.

This Week’s Drought Summary

A pair of late-winter storms blanketed large areas of the West with snow, easing drought; bolstering high-elevation snowpack; and further improving spring and summer runoff prospects. The first storm system, which swept across the Southwest from February 20-22, produced heavy precipitation in core drought areas of the Four Corners States and deposited measurable snow in locations such as Las Vegas, Nevada, and Tucson, Arizona. The second storm – in actuality a series of disturbances – began to affect parts of the Northwest during the weekend of February 23-24 and later delivered another round of heavy precipitation across northern California. Farther east, drenching rain resulted in aggravated and expanded flooding from the northern Mississippi Delta into the southern Appalachians. Rainfall totaled 4 to 12 inches or more in the flood-affected area, with some of the highest amounts occurring in the Tennessee Valley. On February 23-24, thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. Farther north, a blizzard briefly engulfed portions of the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest. The short-lived but fierce storm produced several inches of snow, driven by wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, mainly on February 23-24. High winds also raked the southern Plains – without the benefit of significant precipitation – compounding the effects of short-term dryness on winter wheat and rangeland health.

Northeast

Neither dryness nor drought exists in the Northeast. Snow has been lacking, however, in some northern Atlantic locations. For example, season-to-date snowfall through February 26 in Boston, Massachusetts, totaled just 10.5 inches, or 31% of normal.

Southeast

Despite record-setting warmth, there was no change to Florida’s depiction of abnormal dryness (D0). Outside of Florida’s existing dry area, Gainesville tied a monthly record with a high of 89°F on February 21, and surpassed that mark with a high of 91°F on February 23. Gainesville’s previous earliest 90-degree reading had occurred on March 10, 1974. Similarly, Vero Beach – within Florida’s D0 area – reported a monthly record high of 90°F on February 24. Florida’s D0 area will be monitored for possible drought development, as Vero Beach’s February 1-26 rainfall totaled just 1.03 inches (42% of normal). Farther north, warm, mostly dry weather prevailed in the abnormally dry (D0) area centered over the South Carolina coast. January 1 – February 26 rainfall totaled less than one-half of normal in South Carolina locations such as North Myrtle Beach (3.01 inches, or 44% of normal) and Charleston (2.35 inches, or 36%), and barely one-half of normal in Wilmington, North Carolina (3.72 inches, or 52%), and Savannah, Georgia (3.43 inches, or 55%). Given the ongoing warmth and dryness, D0 was expanded farther into southeastern North Carolina and southeastern Georgia.

South

Some of the heavy rain that fell across the mid-South grazed the central Gulf Coast region, resulting in a slight reduction in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0). Farther west, abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) was broadly expanded across western and southern Texas, as well as southwestern Oklahoma. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 21% of the winter wheat in Texas was in very poor to poor condition on February 24. On the same date, 28% of Texas’ rangeland and pastures were categorized as very poor to poor, while statewide topsoil moisture was 42% very short to short. Topsoils were especially dry (moisture was 86% very short to short) on Texas’ southern high plains and in the lower Rio Grande Valley (79% very short to short). From December 1, 2018 – February 26, 2019, rainfall in McAllen, Texas, totaled just 1.81 inches (55% of normal). Elsewhere in Texas, year-to-date precipitation through February 19 totaled less than one-quarter of an inch in Childress (0.19 inch, or 11% of normal), Dalhart (0.08 inch, or 9%), and Lubbock (0.04 inch, or 3%).

Midwest

Ongoing stormy weather continued to affect the north-central U.S., setting a variety of February and all-time monthly snowfall records. It has already become the snowiest month on record in Wisconsin locations such as Wausau (48.6 inches through February 26; previously, 37.6 inches in December 2008) and Eau Claire (50.7 inches; previously, 35.2 inches in January 1929). Previously dry areas in Minnesota have received enough precipitation in recent months to eradicate D0.

High Plains

Abnormal dryness (D0) was also removed from North Dakota, following a protracted period of below-normal temperatures and frequent snowfall events. The drought situation for Wyoming and Colorado will be covered in the section devoted to the West.

West

As described in the summary section, major storm systems affected core drought areas in Oregon and the Four Corners region, respectively, leading to locally significant reductions in the coverage of dryness (D0) and moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4). By late February, nearly all Western river basins, except a few in southern New Mexico, are experiencing near- to above-average snowpack. In addition, the recent spate of cold weather has maximized snow accumulations, even at middle and lower elevations. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water content of the Sierra Nevada snowpack by February 26 stood at 36 inches – 150% of average for the date and approximately 130% of average peak value. In Oregon, extreme drought (D3) was eradicated, while substantial reductions were realized in the coverage of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2). Drought was nearly pushed out of California, with only a lingering sliver of moderate drought (D1) along the Oregon border. Major improvements were also introduced in parts of Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, and Arizona. Extreme drought (D3) was nearly eased out of southern Colorado, leaving a remnant area of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) across northern New Mexico. In another example of a major reduction, the former large Western area of moderate drought (D1) was split into three pieces, with cuts across Nevada/Idaho, and Utah/Wyoming/Colorado, respectively.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Small increases in the coverage of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) were introduced in southeastern Alaska, where colder- and drier-than-normal conditions persisted. Winter precipitation deficits continued to increase across the region, leading below-average snowpack. In addition, low reservoir levels – in part due to longer-term precipitation deficits across southeastern Alaska – continue to result in concerns related to hydroelectric power generation and an increased reliance on diesel fuel. Meanwhile in Hawaii, heavy rain fell early in the drought-monitoring period across Maui and the Big Island. The Hawaiian rain led to further reductions in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) in southern Maui, as well as the elimination of severe drought (D2) from the Big Island. In addition, the Big Island’s coverage of dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) was reduced, amid the ongoing wet spell. Farther east, drier-than-normal conditions continued to dominate Puerto Rico on time scales ranging from a few days to 6 months. The most significant Puerto Rican drought (D1) stretched along much the southern coast and into portions of the interior. A new area of moderate drought (D1) was introduced in northwestern Puerto Rico, courtesy of low streamflow and rainfall deficits at various time scales. Reports from the island indicate a recent increase in grassfires, especially in southern drought areas, as well as local concerns related to low aquifers and low reservoir levels.

Looking Ahead

The storm system currently affecting the West will lose some organization while traversing the central and eastern U.S. Nevertheless, 5-day rainfall totals could reach 1 to 3 inches or more in the Southeast, while periods of generally light snow will affect portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. During the weekend and early next week, a strong surge of cold air will engulf the Plains and Midwest, with sub-zero temperatures expected as far south as northern sections of Kansas and Missouri. In addition, sub-freezing temperatures could reach into the Deep South. Farther west, a new storm system should arrive in California during the weekend, with wintry precipitation rapidly spreading eastward across portions of the southern U.S. by early next week. Outside of the contiguous U.S., Alaska’s drought areas will continue to experience cold, mostly dry weather during the next few days, while locally heavy showers over Hawaii’s Big Island will shift east of the state by late in the week. Elsewhere, conditions over Puerto Rico will favor a slight increase in shower activity, although no widespread, organized rainfall is expected into early next week.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for March 5 – 9 calls for the likelihood of colder-than-normal conditions nationwide, except for near-normal temperatures in southern Florida and above-normal temperatures in parts of the Southwest. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal weather from California into the middle Mississippi Valley should contrast with below-normal precipitation in the upper Great Lakes region and most areas east of the Mississippi River.

Soil Conditions as of January 31, 2019

Wildfires are still possible. But the risk is not high right now.

And we do not want to ignore floods. The updated map can be obtained here.

Let’s see if this animation works.

3. Last Week’s Weather

The maps in this section are synchronized with the crop report. We now have the weather information but not yet the crop reports.

This is more current but less informative.

This

Here is the SWE (water content of the snow) version.

Current Week

For reference purposes here is the precipitation information for the prior seven days. It is not the same as what is shown in the USDA Crop Report when it is published since the crop week covers the Sunday to Saturday period which corresponds to the crop reports. The below is the current seven-day period and updates in this article automatically every day.

4. Current Forecast for Precipitation and Drought.

First we show the current month and then the Seasonal Forecast through April which was issued on February 21, 2019 with the full Seasonal Outlook. These two forecasts are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here. We either show the latest or both in this report. Sometimes we show them in more than one place in this report for the convenience of the reader.

The three-month Drought Outlook will be updated on March 21, 2019.

And here is the March one-month drought forecast which was issued on February 28, 2019. It will update on March 31, 2019.

And now the current precipitation forecasts so that we can make our own assessment of the drought forecast. Here I provide the weather forecasts for different periods of time in which should allow the reader to assess the likelihood of this forecast working out as shown over the next three to four weeks. Since we publish this week on Thursday, we generally update the discussion for the Week 3 – 4 forecast when it is updated on Friday. This is important as the current Day 6 – 14 forecasts and the week-old week 3 – 4 forecast overlap to some extent. But since this week, we are publishing on Friday, no update will be required.

First weather hazards

Additional information can be obtained here. We also now publish a Live Severe Weather article. The link to our Severe Weather Events article changes every Sunday night and the current version can always be found in the Directory which can be accessed here.

Now the Temperature Forecast .

This shows magnitude rather than probability of being higher or lower than Normal and shows the middle day of the five day period.	Looks like the Northern Tier and the Eastern Half of CONUS will be cool* in Week – 1. The stagnant pattern persists but in Week – 2 the cool anomaly is slowing shifting west! * warmer or cooler than climatology		↑ The cool anomaly shrinks and heads south. Re drought that is good for Texas. ← .

And then the Precipitation Forecast

The five day QPF is shown above. The units are different than the other maps i.e. in units of precipitation (inches) not probabilities of exceeding or being less than climatology.	It is generally wet. But there are a few small dry areas. In general it is favorable for additional drought improvement. But flooding has become a real problem.		↑ The extreme Southwest will be dry in Week 3 -4. Other than that it looks favorable for continued improvement with respect to drought. ←

Here are two other useful graphics from my weekly report which update automatically.

First the Day 3 Mid-Atmosphere pattern.

The below is of interest.

5. U.S. Crop Information

Impact of drought on important crops (the percentage impacted is shown at the top of each graphic) They were updated this week. The situation does not change rapidly.

6. International Crop and Weather Related Information

Summary of Weather Conditons for key areas in January, 2019

7. Prior Month and when available the Current Month-to date Weather (excluding prior week)

Current Month to Date. (I show two graphics because one will flip over to March tomorrow morning so I froze the February data for reference)

And then temperature: (I show two graphics as the February month to date will flip over to March tomorrow)

You can generate a wide variety of different graphics here.

8. Science Theme When we Have One.

No Science Theme this week.

9. Economic Impacts

Energy prices depend on the weather. In this case the seem to depend on the forecasts which means model discrepancies.

10. Additional Reference Information

Reservoir Status. This will now be updated as we receive new graphics which is not weekly. We updated many of the graphics this week.

Reservoirs and Stream Flow

Let us look at California

We update these graphics when we receive new ones. They do not auto-update. They tend to change slowly.

This article provides a little background on the problem.

This is not as graphically pleasing. Updates can be obtained here.

We have added more rivers to the discussion. Above we have reservoirs and they are of course connected by rivers. Both are important and provide insight.

Below is a more complete description of

Sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln