January 31, 2019 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity

Written by Sig Silber

U.S. and World Agriculture and More: Plus an Expanded Weather Forecast Section.

Updated at 3:45 PM February 1, 2019 to Reflect the New Week 3 – 4 Forecast which is not favorable for all of the Western Drought but is favorable for much of the Four-Corners Area.

Looks like NOAA has decided to ban drought and he who controls the computer controls the computer output. Reassessment works wonders. Might the reassessment have been impacted by forecasts? We think so. If so it was a loss of discipline now or before when such high levels of drought were declared – at least that is our thinking on this subject. But that does not change the reality that the picture is looking a lot better right now. Between tonight’s report and our report on the February Update that we will publish tomorrow, readers will better understand the change in the weather pattern that is now predicted.

Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.

West

Temperatures were mixed in the region as they were below normal through the Rocky Mountains and above normal through the rest of the region. It was a mainly dry week over much of the West with only areas of the central and northern Rocky Mountains into the Great Basin recording above-normal precipitation. The driest conditions were along the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and California, where departures were 1-2 inches below normal. Even with a dry week, a reassessment of conditions was done, which allowed for quite a few improvements over California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. In most of California, a full category improvement was done in response to the short-term indicators. Nevada had conditions improve by a full category in both the eastern and western portions of the state. In Utah, severe drought was improved in the northern portions of the state while in Oregon, extreme drought was eliminated from the southern part of the state. Severe drought conditions were eliminated from the western part of Arizona while conditions improved over north-central and northeastern Colorado. Moderate drought was expanded in central Idaho where the upper elevation snow accumulation has been lagging and dry conditions have been developing over the last 6 months.

And here is the new drought forecast for February.

1. Introduction.

We are reorganizing the presentation and plan to expand it.

Current Week (this information is repeated prior to the forecast section of the report)

For reference purposes here is the precipitation information for the prior seven days. It is not the same as what is shown in the USDA Crop Report when it is published (not during the Partial Government Shutdown) which covers the Sunday to Saturday period which corresponds to the crop reports. The below is the current seven-day period and updates in this article automatically every day.

And here is the snow situation.

Now the Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts.

Days 1 – 5. Temperature above, precipitation below	Temperature Above, Precipitation Below. Two Overlapping Periods. Days 6 – 10 are considered Week – 1 and Days 8 – 14 are considered Week -2. The overlap reflects the difficulty of pinning down the timing a week in advance.		↑ ← The Week 3 – 4 forecast was updated on Friday February 1, 2019. Our comments on the impact of the change are found later in this article.

Now we take a look at the current drought situation.

he U.S. Drought Monitor (full report can be accessed here)

This report is now organized as follows:

1. Introduction
2. Present Drought Conditions
3. Last Week’s Weather
4. Information from our Weekly Weather Column (the forecast maps auto-update) and combined with brief commentary from me provides a forecast which I attempt to interpret re the likely change in drought conditions
5. U.S. Crop Information
6. International Crop Information and related weather
7. Prior month’s weather and month-to-date weather excluding the prior week when I have that information. Drought is based on cumulative deficits.
8. A science theme if we have one.
9. Economic Impacts (it will time to get that part of the report going.
10. Reference Information. (This includes a lot of information on reservoirs and river flows)

2. Present Drought Conditions

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

Below is the same map but just CONUS and with statistics and below that map I have provided a cut-out of the statistics which I think you can click on to enlarge.

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

We are showing the change maps for the states that improved the most. (You can click on any of these maps and get a larger version)

This pair of maps might make it easier to get a general idea of what is happening in the worst part of the drought area.

Last Week	This Week

Here is one approach to thinking about this area.

This looks at evaporation

This map which covers the West may be useful also.

Here is a larger view of the above statistics table.

In the list of references there are links to a number of sources for that information including importantly the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) which can be accessed here. It makes it easier to find the regional and state reports. I am on the mailing list for some of them and found the regional report for the West via a search engine.

Here is part of the explanation for the overall situation in the West. Looking at the information from the network of SNOTEL sites. These are mainly in remote locations often at high elevations. they report by telecommunications hence their name.

Then we look at how much snow there is to melt when it is warmer.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the drought has been upgraded. The green is where the level of drought has been downgraded.

Better in Colorado

No Change

No Change

Some Deterioration in Texas Panhandle, Some Improvement in South Texas

Improvement in South Florida

Big Improvement in California. Improvements in Nevada, Arizona Utah, Colorado and Oregon. Mixed in Wyoming.

Some may find this way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and hopefully it’s demise will also be fairly rapid. When you read these graphics remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

Here is the discussion which was issued with the Drought Monitor today.

This Week’s Drought Summary

Colder than normal temperatures dominated most of the United States for the week, especially areas east of the continental divide. The eastern half of the country remained quite wet, with most areas east of the Missouri River recording above-normal precipitation for the week. The cold settled in as a polar vortex descended south and arctic air blasted the Midwest, Great Lakes and portions of the Plains at the end of the current period.

Northeast

Temperatures were mixed during the week; coastal areas were normal to slightly above normal while portions of New York and Pennsylvania were normal to slightly below normal. The region was wet from the impact of a winter storm that tracked through the region. Most areas were 0.50 to 1.50 inches above normal precipitation for the week. No drought issues are being observed in the region.

Southeast

Most areas were cooler than normal for this week, with departures of up to 3 degrees below normal observed throughout the region. Almost the entire region received ample precipitation for the week, with areas of Florida recording close to 4 inches above normal. The ample rain in south Florida allowed for a full category improvement to the drought status this week where severe drought was eliminated and moderate drought was confined to the coastal regions of east Florida.

Midwest

Cold temperatures dominated the region. Areas of the upper Midwest were 15-20 degrees below normal for the week while southern areas were 5-10 degrees below normal. Ample precipitation was recorded over most of the region, with areas of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio at over an inch above normal for the week. No drought issues are being observed in the region.

High Plains

The colder than normal temperatures were also impacting most of the High Plains, where temperatures were about 5 degrees below normal over most areas. The region was mostly drier than normal for the week, with only areas of the Dakotas, southeast Nebraska, and eastern portions of Colorado and Wyoming receiving slightly above normal precipitation. The conditions did not warrant any changes to the drought status this week in the pockets of remaining drought in North Dakota and eastern Colorado.

South

The colder than normal temperatures made their way into the South, with most of the region having temperatures 3-6 degrees below normal for the week. Most of the region was dry, but above-normal precipitation was recorded from southern Texas up into Louisiana and Arkansas, with departures of up to 1.50 inches above normal for the week. The rains in southern Texas did allow for some improvement to the drought status there, but abnormally dry conditions were expanded in other portions of southern Texas as well as farther north in the panhandle.

West

Temperatures were mixed in the region as they were below normal through the Rocky Mountains and above normal through the rest of the region. It was a mainly dry week over much of the West with only areas of the central and northern Rocky Mountains into the Great Basin recording above-normal precipitation. The driest conditions were along the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and California, where departures were 1-2 inches below normal. Even with a dry week, a reassessment of conditions was done, which allowed for quite a few improvements over California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. In most of California, a full category improvement was done in response to the short-term indicators. Nevada had conditions improve by a full category in both the eastern and western portions of the state. In Utah, severe drought was improved in the northern portions of the state while in Oregon, extreme drought was eliminated from the southern part of the state. Severe drought conditions were eliminated from the western part of Arizona while conditions improved over north-central and northeastern Colorado. Moderate drought was expanded in central Idaho where the upper elevation snow accumulation has been lagging and dry conditions have been developing over the last 6 months.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Most areas of Hawaii were normal to below normal for temperatures this week, and in response to an El Niño-like weather pattern, dryness has continued to develop across the state. Abnormally dry conditions were expanded to cover the entire state while severe drought was introduced on Maui and expanded on the Big Island and moderate drought was expanded on the Big Island and Kauai. No changes were made in Alaska and Puerto Rico this week, but several reservoirs were being monitored in Puerto Rico as dryness continues across the island.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, there will continue to be an active storm track across the country where a significant storm will impact the West coast and into the intermountain West and Southwest, bringing the chance for significant precipitation. The eastern half of the United States will also have good chances of widespread precipitation, with the greatest amounts over the Tennessee valley and lower Mississippi basin. High temperatures during this period look to be warmer than normal, with the warmest highs over the central Plains and South with departures of 9-12 degrees above normal. Cooler temperatures will impact the West coast and New England with departures of 3-6 degrees below normal.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that almost the entire country is showing above-normal chances of above-normal precipitation, with the greatest probabilities over the Midwest and into New England. A few areas are projected to have above-normal chances of below-normal precipitation, including the Florida peninsula and portions of northern California and into the Pacific Northwest. The greatest probability of above-normal temperatures is over the eastern third of the United States and into Texas as well as in Alaska. The West and High Plains have the greatest probabilities of below-normal temperatures, with the greatest chances over North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and portions of northern Wyoming and Idaho.

Soil Conditions as of January 31, 2019

Wildfires are still possible. But the risk is not high right now.

And we do not want to ignore floods. The updated map can be obtained here.

3. Last Week’s Weather

The maps in this section which are synchronized with the crop report have not updated since the Partial Federal Shutdown. But maps in Section 6 which are related to the date you look at this report are updating.

For the convenience of the reader I have added copies of the two key maps to this section and they follow.

Current Week

For reference purposes here is the precipitation information for the prior seven days. It is not the same as what is shown in the USDA Crop Report when it is published since the crop week covers the Sunday to Saturday period which corresponds to the crop reports. The below is the current seven-day period and updates in this article automatically every day.

And here is the snow situation.

This

In Section 8 we discuss the three types of drought: meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological. We could add another category called “environmental”. The below graphic shows how much is growing on the surface.

4. Current Forecast for Precipitation and Drought.

First we show the current month and then the Seasonal Forecast through April which was issued on January 17, 2019 with the full Seasonal Outlook. These two forecasts are sued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here. We either show the latest or both in this report. Sometimes we show them in more than one place in this report for the convenience of the reader.

And here is the longer seasonal drought forecast which was issued on January 17, 2019. It will update on February 21, 2019. It will be discussed in more detail in our Two-Part Report on the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook.

And now the current precipitation forecasts so that we can make our own assessment of the drought forecast. Here I provide the weather forecasts for different periods of time in which should allow the reader to assess the likelihood of this forecast working out as shown over the next three to four weeks. Since we publish this week on Thursday, we update the discussion for the Week 3 – 4 forecast when it is updated on Friday. This is important as the current Day 6 – 14 forecasts and the week-old week 3 – 4 forecast overlap to some extent.

First weather hazards

Additional information can be obtained here. We also now publish a Live Severe Weather article which can be accessed here. The link to our Severe Weather Events article changes every Sunday night and the current version can always be found in the directory which can be accessed here.

Now the Temperature Forecast .

This shows magnitude rather than probability of being higher or lower than Normal and shows the middle day of the five day period.	Looks like the Northwest Quadrant will tend be cool* in Week – 1 (Days 6 – 10). The pattern persists into Week – 2 but is less amplified and shifts a bit to the east and north. * warmer or cooler than climatology		↑ ← The Week 3 – 4 forecast was updated on Friday February 1, 2019. It is a continuation of the pattern.

And then the Precipitation Forecast

The five day QPF is shown above. The units are different than the other maps i.e. in units of precipitation (inches) not probabilities of exceeding or being less than climatology.	It is generally wet in the East in Week -1. But in Week – 2 the Northeast wet anomaly deamplifies but the pattern expands to the west.		↑ ← The Week 3 – 4 forecast was updated on Friday February 1, 2019. It is similar to the prior forecast but more favorable for most of the Four Corners Area.

Here are two other useful graphics from my weekly report which update automatically.

First the Day 3 Mid-Atmosphere pattern.

And then the Day 7 forecast.

The below is of interest.

5. U.S. Crop Information

Impact of drought on important crops (the percentage impacted is shown at the top of each graphic)

6. International Crop and Weather Related Information

7. Prior Month and when available the Current Month-to date Weather (excluding prior week)

Current Month to Date.

And then temperature:

You can generate a wide variety of different graphics here.

8. Science Theme When we Have One.

No Science Theme this week.

9. Economic Impacts

Nothing to report other than the Australia information reported in the weather section.

10. Additional Reference Information

Reservoir Status. This will now be updated as we receive new graphics which is not weekly. We updated most of the graphics this week.

Reservoirs and Stream Flow

Let us look at California

We update these graphics when we receive new ones. They do not auto-update. They tend to change slowly.

This article provides a little background on the problem.

This is not as graphically pleasing. Updates can be obtained here.

We have added more rivers to the discussion. Above we have reservoirs and they are of course connected by rivers. Both are important and provide insight.

Below is a more complete description of

Sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln