April 23, 2018 Weather and Climate Report – Low Confidence

Written by Sig Silber

The level of confidence in the 6 -10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Forecasts is extremely low today. This may be due to the transition out of the La Nina or perhaps to the unusual situation of the overall distribution of sea surface temperatures. The details have to do with a number of factors which include the forecasted location and track of two Lows/Troughs: one impacting the Northeast and Quebec and the other a Pacific Low/Trough where its willingness to come ashore next weekend and its subsequent track at this point in time is not clear. Of course, this has significant impacts with respect to the Southwest and Southern Plains Drought. Everything east and south of those two key features may be impacted.

Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side for social media buttons.

This graphic shows the Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies over the last four weeks.

Because we are still having snowy weather, we make it easy to get a snow forecast. This is the six-hour snow forecast.

Looking further out.

NOAA Snow Forecast looking ahead to Days 4, 5 (top Row) 6 and 7 (bottom row). When you view these graphics you can click on them to enlarge them.

A. Now we return to our regular approach and focus on Alaska and CONUS (all U.S.. except Hawaii) 

I am starting with a summary first for temperature and then for precipitation of small images of the three short-term maps. You can click on these maps to see larger versions. The easiest way to return to this report is by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. Larger maps are available later in the article with the discussion and analysis.

For most people, the summary with the small images will be sufficient. Later in the article for those with sufficient interest there is a full description of the factors determining the maps shown here with a detailed analysis of the ENSO situation which so dramatically impacts the forecasts below. I have include the best graphic I have for the Day 1 -5 Period.

First Temperature

This shows magnitude rather than probability of  being higher or lower than Normal and shows the middle day of the five day period.			It is difficult to compare this with the other maps that show deviation from climatology as we expect the north to be cooler than the south. But it does seem to be consistent with the 6 – 10 day map. You can  see the difference between North and South is now reduced to 20F which is much less of a difference than for the past few weeks.
		Click to Enlarge
		Transitioning from the 6 to 10 day outlook on the left (also called Week One) to the 8 to 14 day outlook (Week Two) on the right   →
		The pattern is fairly progressive west to east.
To the right is the week 3 and 4 Forecast.                                                   → There is a warm anomaly for Alaska. There is a CONUS western and southern tier warm anomaly and a central CONUS cool anomaly .			↑ ←  The transition from the 8 -14 day forecast shown above to the week 3/4 forecast seems feasible.

then Precipitation

The five day QPF is shown to the right. The units are different than the other maps i.e. in units of precipitation (inches) not probabilities of exceeding or being less than climatology.			It is difficult to compare this with the  other maps as some places are naturally more wet than others. But it seems to be somewhat consistent with the 6 – 10 day map and this is a Day 1 – 5 Map and the precipitation pattern for Days 6 – 10 may be very different.
		Transitioning from the 6 to 10 day outlook on the left to the 8 to 14 day outlook on the right.     →
		The precipitation pattern, unlike the temperature pattern, is perhaps less progressive west to east. .
To the right is the week 3 and 4 Experimental Forecast.    →                Northwest Alaska is dry southwest Alaska is wet. . For the CONUS northern tier there are two dry anomalies one for the Northwest and one for the Great Lakes. Florida is wet and there is a large central Mississippi River Valley wet anomaly that extends both to the west and east. .			↑ ←  The transition from the 8 -14 day forecast shown above to the week 3/4 shown to the left seems feasible but not very likely.

 Let us focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.

You can see from this animation that we have the same pattern of moisture entering the Northwest and also crossing Mexico and entering CONUS from there.

Tonight, Monday evening April 23, 2018, as I am looking at the above graphic, you see the same pattern but with less activity in the Northwest..

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events. You can convert this graphic into a flexible forecasting tool by clicking here. One can obtain views of different geographical areas by clicking here.

And Now the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts

60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

You can enlarge the below daily (days 3 – 7) weather maps for CONUS by clicking on Day 3 or Day 4 or Day 5 or Day 6 or Day 7. These maps auto-update so whenever you click on them they will be forecast maps for the number of days in the future shown. You can see the next East Coast Nor’easter.

What is Behind the Forecasts? Let us try to understand what NOAA is looking at when they issue these forecasts.

Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 7. The Day 3 forecast can be found here. the Day 6 Forecast can be found here. Actually all the small graphics below can be clicked on to enlarge them.

When I look at this Day 7 forecast, there is a Low just off Kamchatka with surface central pressure of 1000 hPa. This week, the Hawaiian High with surface central pressure of 1028 hPa and extending on shore and northward into the Gulf of Alaska will play a decisive role in blocking storms after Day 7 from tracking down offshore of California but forcing them to stay north or travel down the Great Basin. But further to the west there is another Low with surface central pressure of 1008 hPa so it is not clear how this will evolve.

Over the Rockies there is a Low with surface central pressure of 1004 hPa which presumably arrived before the Hawaiian Ridge was in place. The Northeast has a Low with surface central pressure of 1000 hPa and the Southeast has a High with surface central pressure of 1024 hPa.

It is a lot less confusing than last week.

I provided this K – 12 write up that provides a simple explanation on the importance of semipermanent Highs and Lows and another link that discussed possible changes in the patterns of these highs and lows which could be related to a Climate Shift (cycle) in the Pacific or Global Warming. Remember this is a forecast for Day 6. It is not the current situation.

The table below showing the Day 3, Day 4, Day 5, Day 6 and Day 7 of this graphic can be useful in thinking about how the pattern of Highs and Lows is expect to move during the week.

From left to right and then down, Days 3 and 4 top row, Days 5 and 6 second row and Day 7 to the right. These are small images but you can if you want click on them and get larger images but even with the small images you can trace the evolution of the pattern. The graphics update but my commentary below does not so it is just a guide for how to read these graphics.
You can see the Hawaiian High staying south possibly to bring warm dry weather to the Southwest. The graphics update when NOAA updates their graphics so it will be interesting to watch the development of these Lows. Things to look for in general are the position and strength of the Aleutian Low, the Hawaiian High and any troughs especially if they extend far to the south and are over water.

Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream.  The below graphics and the above graphics are very related.

Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems especially in the winter The sub-Jet Stream level intensity winds shown by the vectors in this graphic are also very important in understanding the impacts north and south of the Jet Stream which is the higher-speed part of the wind circulation and is shown in gray on this map. In some cases however a Low-Pressure System becomes separated or “cut off” from the Jet Stream. In that case it’s movements may be more difficult to predict until that disturbance is again recaptured by the Jet Stream. This usually is more significant for the lower half of CONUS with the cutoff lows being further south than the Jet Stream. Some basic information on how to interpret the impact of jet streams on weather can be found here and here.  I have not provided the ability to click to get larger images as I believe the smaller  images shown are easy to read.

Current	Day 5
We still seem to have a split Polar Jet Stream with Northern and Southern Branches. Not sure if what I am seeing is the southern branch of the Polar Jet Stream or the Subtropical Jet. At any rate the major actions seems to be to the north.

Putting the Jet Stream into Motion and Looking Forward a Few Days Also

To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.

This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.

Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on “earth” adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on “earth” to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns. This amazing graphic covers North and South America. It could be included in the Worldwide weather forecast section of this report but it is useful here re understanding the wind circulation patterns.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Because “Thickness Lines” are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define “Thickness” and its uses. The 540 Level generally signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. Thickness of 600 or more suggests very intensely heat and fire danger. Sometimes Meteorologists work with the 500 mb heights which provide somewhat similar readings to the “Thickness” lines but IMO provide slightly less specific information. Thinking about clockwise movements around High Pressure Systems and counter- clockwise movements around Low Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Here is the whole suite of similar maps for Days 3, 4, 5, 6 and repeated for Day 7. Of interest is the Pacific Coast Storm which looks like it will not make it very far south.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here is the seven-day cumulative precipitation forecast. More information is available here.

Four – Week Outlook: Looking Beyond Days 1 to 5, What is the Forecast for the Following Three + Weeks?

I use “EC” in my discussions although NOAA sometimes uses “EC” (Equal Chances) and sometimes uses “N” (Normal) to pretty much indicate the same thing although “N” may be more definitive.

First – Temperature

6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook issued today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on April 23, 2018 was 2 out of 5

8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook issued today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on April 23, 2018 was 1 out of 5).

Looking further out.

Now – Precipitation

6 – 10 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on April 23, 2018 was 2 out of 5)

8 – 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on April 23, 2018 was 1 out of 5)

Looking further out.

Here is the 6 – 14 Day NOAA discussion released today April 23, 2018 and the Week 3/4 discussion released Friday April 20, 2018

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 29 – MAY 03, 2018

TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATE ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN RECENT DAYS, AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD HAVE PROGRESSED FROM PREDICTING A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TO LIFTING THE TROUGH EASTWARD OVER QUEBEC. TODAY’S DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST INDICATES WEAKER MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAN THE MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES LARGER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND GIVES GREATER WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT RIDGING OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING GREATER POSITIVE ANOMALIES THAN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.

UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS STATES, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. UNDER SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS, INCLUDING CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF OREGON, NEVADA AND ARIZONA. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS INDICATED BY A CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.  

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. WITH A DEEPER PREDICTED TROUGH, THE GEFS PREDICTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS, WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES NORMAL DRY CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THIS REGION. OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTS ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH THE FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AROUND A PREDICTED RIDGE. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES MOST LIKELY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTWARD, WITH A FORECAST OF A STRONGER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOW TO THE WEST, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER WEST TEXAS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WERE FAVORED IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THESE REGIONS OF DISAGREEMENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,  AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHERE  DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ALONG MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO MAINE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, UNDER ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. FORECAST

CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL CIRCULATION FORECASTS AND THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 – 07 2018

TODAY’S WEEK 2 DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW GREATER DISAGREEMENT THAN FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PARTICULARLY SHOWS WEAKER POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE WEST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS WERE GIVEN GREATER WEIGHT IN THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND THAN THE GEFS OR CANADIAN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IN WEEK 2, COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, WITH DECREASING MODEL SUPPORT FOR A STRONGER  ROUGH  OVER THE REGION. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS HAVE DECREASED, WITH AN INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY AND DECREASED MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN WEEK 2, AS INDICATED BY THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH A FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE WEST.

THE WEEK 2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN CONUS HAVE DECREASED AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN HAS INCREASED. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS MOST LIKELY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON INTO PARTS OF NEVADA AND IDAHO. THE AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH GREATER AGREEMENT FOR THIS REGION IN THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE CIRCULATION FORECASTS AND GREATER DISAGREEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 17.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat May 05 2018-Fri May 18 2018

La Nina conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, however the weekly average Nino 3.4 SST anomaly is now above the -0.5 Celsius threshold used to identify La Nina conditions. La Nina conditions have weakened in recent weeks, and a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected in the spring. The RMM MJO indices indicate a weakening MJO signal over the Indian Ocean in the past few days, with dynamical models forecasting no MJO signal in the next several weeks. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, ECMWF, and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as forecasts from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental ensemble prediction systems. Consideration is also given to the possible evolution of the predicted circulation pattern in Week 2.

The various dynamical model guidance for the Week 3-4 Outlook shows some significant differences between individual models. Early in the Week 2 period, dynamical models consistently predict a ridge over western North America and troughs over the eastern CONUS and the Aleutian Islands. As Week 2 progresses, a trough is forecast to lift out of the eastern CONUS as 500-hPa heights rise. The ECMWF ensemble predicts a trough over the eastern CONUS to redevelop in Week 3-4. CFSv2 forecasts are somewhat consistent with the ECMWF, indicating below normal 500-hPa heights and troughing over the central CONUS in Week 3-4. The CFS predicts above normal 500-hPa heights over the Northeast, which is more consistent with several of the SubX models, including the NCEP GEFS. The MME mean of the SubX indicates above normal 500-hPa heights over the Northeast and near-zero anomalies over the remainder of the CONUS, due to substantial model disagreement. CFS, ECMWF, and the SubX MME mean predict positive 500-hPa height anomalies over most of mainland Alaska, and relatively weak troughing over the Aleutian Islands in Week 3-4. Most dynamical model forecasts predict near or above normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii.

There is substantial disagreement among the various dynamical model temperature forecasts for Week 3-4. The ECMWF model predicts a large area of below normal temperatures from the Great Plains states across the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard, with below normal temperatures extending southward to the Gulf Coast. The CFS and ECCC (Environment Canada) model forecasts confine below normal temperatures to the Central and Northern Plains states and eastward, predicting near to above normal temperatures for parts of the Southern Plains and Southeast. CFS temperature forecasts also indicate near to above normal temperatures for parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast regions.

The Week 3-4 Outlook indicates below normal temperatures are most likely from parts of the Northern and Central Plains eastward into the Midwest region. Equal chances of above and below normal temperatures are indicated for most other areas of the eastern CONUS, where there is substantial disagreement among the various model forecasts. Above normal temperatures are most likely for Alaska, under above normal mid-level heights. Above normal temperatures are most likely for the western CONUS, as indicated by a consensus of dynamical models, as well as along the Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula, consistent with surrounding above normal SSTs. Hawaii is likely to have above normal temperatures, as predicted by nearly all dynamical models and consistent with above normal SSTs.

Dynamical model forecasts are in very good agreement on the precipitation outlook for Week 3-4, despite substantial disagreement in the mean circulation pattern for the period. The ECMWF, CFS, and all SubX models indicate an area of above median precipitation over the central CONUS. Uncertainty in the location of precipitation leads to a forecast of equal chances of above and below median precipitation over most areas of the CONUS. Above median precipitation is indicated in Week 3-4 across parts of the Central and Southern Plains into the Central Mississippi Valley, where there is greater confidence due to a consensus among dynamical model forecasts. Below median precipitation is most likely for the Northwest CONUS and from eastern areas of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region, where the CFS and ECMWF precipitation forecasts are in agreement. Below median precipitation is most likely for areas of Northwest Alaska, and above median precipitation is most likely for southwestern regions of the state, consistent with the CFS, ECMWF, and the SubX MME mean forecasts. Forecasts from the CFS, ECMWF, and virtually all individual SubX models indicate increased probabilities of above median precipitation for Hawaii for the Week 3-4 period.

Some Indices of Possible Interest:

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

NCEP-NEFS	CFSv2

Analogs to the Outlook.

Now let us take a detailed look at the “Analogs”.

NOAA normally provides two sets of Analogs.

A. Analogs related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. “Analog” means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and the recent pattern is used to initialize the models to predict the 6 – 14 day Outlook.

B. There is a second set of analogs associated with the Outlook. It compares the forecast (rather than the prior period) to past weather patterns. I have not been regularly analyzing this second set of information. The first set applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set, relates to the correlation of the forecasted outlook 6 – 10 days out and 8 – 14 days out with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during a longer period that includes the dates covered by the 6 – 10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Outlook. The second set of analogs also has useful information as it indicates that the forecast is feasible in the sense that something like it has happened before. I am not very impressed with that approach. But in some ways both Approach A and B are somewhat similar. I conclude that if the Ocean Condition now are different then the analogs and if the state of ENSO now is different than the analogs that is a reason to have increased lack of confidence in the forecasts and vice versa.

They put the first set of analogs in the discussion with the second set available by a link so I am assuming that the first set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so. But NOAA prefers the first set (A) as it helps them (or at least they think it does) assess the quality of the forecast.

Here are today’s analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. The first set (A) which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today.

(t) = a month where the Ocean Cycle Index has just changed or does change the following month.

The spread among the analogs from April 12 to May 3 is 21 days which is fairly tight. I have not calculated the centroid of this distribution which would be the better way to look at things but the midpoint, which is a lot easier to calculate, and fairly accurate if the dates are reasonably evenly distributed, is about April 22. These analogs are centered on 3 days and 4 days ago (April 19 or April 20). So the analogs could be considered to be close to being in sync with respect to weather that we would normally be getting right now.

For more information on Analogs see discussion in the GEI Weather Page Glossary.  For sure it is a rough measure as there are so many historical patterns but not enough to be a perfect match with current conditions. I use it mainly to see how our current conditions match against somewhat similar patterns and the ocean phases that prevailed during those prior patterns. If everything lines up I have my own measure of confidence in the NOAA forecast. Similar initial conditions should lead to similar weather. I am a mathematician so that is how I think about models.

Including duplicates, there are five Neutral Analogs, five La Nina analogs and zero El Nino Analogs. The pre-forecast analogs this week strongly favor McCabe Conditions C and D which are opposite but both suggest a Western Drought either to the north or to the south.The oceans low-frequency cycles appear to be strongly associated with AMO+. The AMO is in its positive phase. The issue appears to be uncertainty about the PDO which is not a surprise since the PDO is highly correlated with ENSO and we do not really know what the current phase of ENSO is i.e. Neutral or La Nina. The pre-forecast analogs support the uncertainty by NOAA in their 6 – 14 Day Forecast.  

The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time. One of the major reasons that I write this weather and climate column is to encourage a more long-term and World view of weather.

In color	Black and White same graphics

You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.

Historical Anomaly Analysis

When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.

A Useful Read

Some might find this analysis which you need to click to read interesting as the organization which prepares it focuses on the Pacific Ocean and looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of ENSO events.

Recent CONUS Weather

This is provided mainly to see the pattern in the weather that has occurred recently.

And the 30 Days ending  April 14, 2018	And the 30 Days ending April  21, 2018
Not much change in the precipitation pattern, the temperature cold anomaly is more intense.	It appears that NOAA did not update their graphic this week.
Remember, these maps are a 30 average so the most distant seven days are removed and the most recent seven days are added.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understand the drought situation for the U.S. If is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. The drought monitor is not just based on precipitation but the condition of the land so it generally reflects more than a month’s precipitation and temperature and wind.

Because of the current drought conditions we now publish a Drought Update on Thursdays. You can access the most recent report here.  But notice the doubling of the size of area designated as D3.

Below are the Temperature followed by the Precipitation Outlooks for the month and three months shown in the Legend. These maps are issued on the Third Thursday of the Month. The maps for the following month (but not the three-month maps) are updated on the last day of the month. The 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 Day update daily and the Week 3/4 Map Updates every Friday so usually these are more up to date. Also the three shorter-term maps will generally cover a slightly different time period since they update daily as the month progresses. But these reference maps are sometimes useful if one wants to understand how the current month was originally forecast to play out.

	To the left is the full month Temperature Outlook. To the right is the three-month Temperature outlook
	To the left is the full month Precipitation outlook. To the right is the three-month Precipitation outlook.

B. Beyond Alaska and CONUS Let’s Look at the World which of course also includes Alaska and CONUS

It is Useful to Understand the Semipermanent Pattern that Control our Weather and Consider how These Change from Winter to Summer. These two graphics (click on each one to enlarge) are from a much larger set available from the Weather Channel.  They highlight the position of the Bermuda High which they are calling the Azores High in the January graphic and is often called NASH and it has a very big impact on CONUS Southeast weather and also the Southwest. You also see the north/south migration of the Pacific High which also has many names and which is extremely important for CONUS weather and it also shows the change of location of the ITCZ which I think is key to understanding the Indian Monsoon. A lot of things become much clearer when you understand these semi-permanent features some of which have cycles within the year, longer period cycles and may be impacted by Global Warming. We are now in the second half of April and should be returning to the set of positions shown below for July (and that appears to be happening at least in the Pacific).For CONUS, the seasonal repositioning of the Bermuda High and the Pacific High are very significant. Notice the Winter position of the Pacific High (Hawaiian High). It has been further north than usual for this time of the year. But it is forecast to drop down closer to its usual position

Forecast for Today (you can click on the maps to enlarge them)

Temperature.	Precipitation.
Not a lot of surprises here.  But Equatorial Africa is very warm.	We again see the dry belt stretching from Northern Africa to Eastern Asia now including part of Southeast Asia. But it does not seem as well defined as all Winter. The Southern Hemisphere is very wet.

Additional Maps showing different weather variables can be found here.

Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)

World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for six days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 6 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here

And now we have experimental forecasts from the U.S. NAEFS Model. They are difficult to read without first enlarging them.

Looking Out a Few Months

Here is the precipitation forecast from Queensland Australia:

It is kind of amazing that you can make a worldwide forecast based on just one parameter the SOI and changes in the SOI. But the current reading of the SOI is probably more impacted by the SOI than ENSO so its predictive value out three months is questionable.

JAMSTEC Forecasts

One can always find the latest JAMSTEC maps by clicking this link. You will find additional maps that I do not general cover in my monthly Update Report. Remember if you leave this page to visit links provided in this article, you can return by hitting your “Back Arrow”, usually top left corner of your screen just to the left of the URL box.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal for this Time of the Year i.e. Anomalies

My focus here is sea surface temperature anomalies as they are one of the two largest factors determining weather around the World. If we want to have a good feel for future weather we need to look at the oceans as our weather mostly comes from oceans and we need to look at

• Surface temperature anomalies (weather develops from the ocean surface and
• The changes in the temperature anomalies since that may provide clues as to how the surface anomalies will change based on the current trend of changes. This is not that easy to do since the oceans are deep, there are many currents, winds have an impact etc. Two ways that are available to use are to look at the change in the situation today compared to the average over a period of time and NOAA also produces a graphic of monthly changes. I use both. The first set of graphics is simply looking at the average compared to today and that is below.

Three Month Average Anomaly	Current Anomaly
La Nina shows up	The cool anomaly is displaced to the west a bit. We see a lot of white where we used to see blue.

And when we look in more detail at the current Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to ENSO.

First the categorization of the current daily SST anomalies.
Mediterranean, Black Sea and Caspian Sea	Western Pacific	West of North America	North and East of North America	North Atlantic
All are warming to some extent	Mostly warm along eastern coast of Asia;	Slightly Warm Bering Sea Warm off Baja but offshore and stretching to the Dateline.	Warm off Nova Scotia	Warm north of British Isles.
Equator	The La Nina cool anomaly exists only south of the Equator.
Africa	West of Australia	North, South and East of Australia	West of South America	East of South America
Slightly cool of North Africa Mixed south  of Africa	Cool but mostly offshore	Slightly warm to the north .	Cool off Ecuador and offshore Cool off 60S	Warm off 30S to 50S

Then we look at the change in the anomalies.  The SST  anomaly is sort of like the first derivative and the change in the anomaly is somewhat like a second derivative. It tells us if the anomaly is becoming more or less intense.

Here it gets a little tricky as for this graphic red does not mean a warm anomaly but a warming of the anomaly which could mean more warm or less cool and blue does not mean cool but more cool or less warm.
Mediterranean, Black Sea and Caspian Sea	Western North Pacific	West of North America	East of North America	North Atlantic
Eastern Mediterranean warming	Warming around Japan Cooling off Indochina	Cooling southwest of Alaska .	Fairly Neutral	Warming around British Isles .  .
Equator	Eastern Pacific consistently extreme warming to the east except in one spot at about 90W.
Africa	West of Australia	North, South and East of Australia	West of South America	East of South America
Warming west of Angola Warming east of Africa beyond Madagascar	Mostly neutral	Mostly  Neutral	Sleight cooling offshore of 40S	Warming east of 30S to 50S

This may be a good time to show the recent values to the indices most commonly used to describe the overall spacial pattern of temperatures in the (Northern Hemisphere) Pacific and the (Northern Hemisphere) Atlantic and the Dipole Pattern in the Indian Ocean. Notice the change in the PDO in July of 2017 and the stability of the AMO index.

Switching gears, below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period.

 * Moderate Confidence that the indicated anomaly will be in the upper or lower third of the historical range as indicated in the Legend. ** High Confidence that the indicated anomaly will be in the upper or lower third of the historical range as indicated in the Legend.

C. Progress of ENSO

A major driver of weather is Surface Ocean Temperatures. Evaporation only occurs from the Surface of Water. So we are very interested in the temperatures of water especially when these temperatures deviate from seasonal norms thus creating an anomaly. The geographical distribution of the anomalies is very important. To a substantial extent, the temperature anomalies along the Equator have disproportionate impact on weather so we study them intensely and that is what the ENSO (El Nino – Southern Oscillation) cycle is all about. Subsurface water can be thought of as the future surface temperatures. They may have only indirect impacts on current weather but they have major impacts on future weather by changing the temperature of the water surface. Winds and Convection (evaporation forming clouds) is weather and is a result of the Phases of ENSO and also a feedback loop that perpetuates the current Phase of ENSO or changes it. That is why we monitor winds and convection along or near the Equator especially the Equator in the Eastern Pacific.

Starting with Surface Conditions.

TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC (a good way of viewing data related to the part of the Equator and the waters close to the Equator in the Eastern Pacific where we monitor to determining the current phase of ENSO. It is probably not necessary in order to follow the discussion below, but here is a link to TAO/TRITON terminology.

And here is the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic. The top part shows the actual temperatures, the bottom part shows the anomalies i.e. the deviation from normal.

Location Bar for Nino 3.4 Area Above and Below

My Calculation of the Nino 3.4 Index

I calculate the current value of the Nino 3.4 Index each Monday using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W Nino 3.4 measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions.

So as of Monday April 23, in the afternoon working from the April 22 TAO/TRITON report [Although the TAO/TRITON Graphic appears to update once a day, in reality it updates more frequently.], this is what I calculated.

Calculation of Nino 3.4 from TAO/TRITON Graphic

My estimate of the daily Nino 3.4 SST anomaly tonight is -0.2 which is clearly an ENSO Neutral not a La Nina value. NOAA has reported the weekly Nino 3.4 to be warmer than last week at -0.2 which is clearly an ENSO Neutral value not a La Nina value and is the same value I have calculated. Nino 4 is reported to be warmer than last week at +0.1. Nino 3 is reported as the same at -0.3. Nino 1 + 2 which extends from the Equator south rather than being centered on the Equator is reported a bit warmer at -1.2. It was up there close to -3.0 at one time so this index has been declining as an anomaly (rising) quite a bit and also fluctuating quite a bit which is not surprising as it is the area most impacted by the Upwelling off the coast. So it is an indication of the interaction between surface water and rising cool water. Thus it is subject to larger changes. I am only showing the currently issued version of the NINO SST Index Table as the prior values are shown in the small graphics on the right with this graphic. The same data in graphic form but going back a couple of more years can be found here.  The full table of values can be found here.

This graphic brings the Nino 3.4 up to date and is easy to read. It may be more reliable than the NOAA readings.

Here is another way of looking at the TAO/TRITON Graphic. It is a fast way to assess the strength of an ENSO Event and provides a way to track it.  

The below table only looks at the Equator and shows the extent of anomalies along the Equator. The ONI Measurement Area is the 50 degrees of Longitude between 170W and 120W and extends 5 degrees of Latitude North and South of the Equator so the above table is just a guide and a way of tracking the changes. The top rows show El Nino anomalies. The two rows just below that break point contribute to ENSO Neutral.

The next graphic overlaps with the subsequent topic but I will show it here.

The discussion in this slide says it better than I could. One might compare the current reading to Oct/Nov 2017. The anomaly had returned to zero then reversed for a month and then returned to zero and now has gone positive. In retrospect it was the Kelvin Wave (#1) Activity the Upwelling Phase and the MJO which caused the brief reversal of the warming trend.

A side by side comparison can be useful

Comparison Week Probably Third Week of December 2017	Current Week

Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies

It is the ocean surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. So we are interested in the actual ocean surface temperatures and the departure from seasonal normal temperatures which is called “departures” or “anomalies”. Since warm water facilitates evaporation which results in cloud convection, the pattern of SST anomalies suggests how the weather pattern east of the anomalies will be different than normal.

A major advantage of the Hovmoeller method of displaying information is that it shows the history so I do not need to show a sequence of snapshots of the conditions at different points in time. This Hovmoeller provides a good way to visually see the evolution of this ENSO event. I have decided to use the prettied-up version that comes out on Mondays rather that the version that auto-updates daily because the SST Departures on the Equator do not change rapidly and the prettied-up version is so much easier to read. The bottom of the Hovmoeller shows the current readings. Remember the +5, -5 degree strip around the Equator that is being reported in this graphic. So it is the surface but not just the Equator.

This next graphic is more focused on the Equator and looks down to 300 meters rather than just being the surface.

We are back to a single Kelvin Wave phase in operation. The up-welling phase of Wave #1 reached South America and is no longer a factor re the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area but is a factor further east.. The down-welling phase of Wave #2 is at the 120W. The down-welling phase will provide the warm water to end this La Nina and in our opinion already has.

 Let us look in more detail at the Equatorial Water Temperatures.

We are now going to look at a three-dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view and an average of the subsurface heat content to a more detailed view from the surface down This graphic provides both a summary perspective and a history (small images on the right).

.

Anomalies are strange. You can not really tell for sure if the blue area is colder or warmer than the water above or below. All you know is that it is cooler than usual for this time of the year. A later graphic will provide more information. Aside from buoyancy the currents tend to bring water from that depth up to the surface mostly farther east. These currents are very complicated and made even more so by the uneven nature of the ocean floor. So the exact pattern of where this warm water will erupt is beyond my level of understanding. But it will erupt to the surface in multiple different places.

Now for a more detailed look. Below is the pair of graphics that I regularly provide. The date shown is the midpoint of a five-day period with that date as the center of the five-day period. The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters. At different times I have discussed the difference between the actual values and the deviation of the actual values from what is defined as current climatology (which adjusts every ten years except along the Equator where it is adjusted every five years) and how both measures are useful for other purposes.

There is neutral water from the Dateline to 110W but colder to the east. We now have warm water with a maximum anomaly of +4C developing west of the Dateline and crossing the Dateline at depth to 110W, the result of another Down-welling Kelvin Wave: Wave #2. La Nina is over but its demise is not yet acknowledged by NOAA.

The 28C Isotherm is at the Dateline, the 27C Isotherm is at 160W, the 25C Isotherm is now at 110W and in many places at the surface further east. The 20C Isotherm still close to reaching the surface due to the cool water being pushed to the surface by Kelvin Wave #2. .

The flattening of the Isotherm Pattern is an indication of ENSO Neutral just as the steepening of the pattern indicates La Nina or El Nino depending on where the slope shows the warm or cool pool to be. That flattening has occurred and we have gone to an ENSO Neutral thermocline.

Tracking the change.

And now let us look at the atmosphere.

This graphic shows the Low-Level Wind Anomalies near the Equator. The 850 hPa level is above the surface but close to the surface.	And now the Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies which tell us where convection has been taking place. The bottom of a Hovmoeller graphic shows the most recent readings.
Reds and browns would be suppressed easterlies or enhanced westerlies and are typical of El Nino. You see the recent change in the pattern.	We see the change in the pattern of suppressed OLR as the MJO moves through and the La Nina declines.

And Now the Air Pressure to Confirm that the Atmosphere is Reacting to the Sea Surface Temperature Pattern. The most Common way to do that is to use an Index called the SOI.

This index provides an easy way to assess the location of and the relative strength of the Convection (Low Pressure) and the Subsidence (High Pressure) near the Equator. Experience shows that the extent to which the Atmospheric Air Pressure at Tahiti exceeds the Atmospheric Pressure at Darwin Australia when normalized is substantially correlated with the Precipitation Pattern of the entire World. At this point there seems to be no need to show the daily preliminary values of the SOI but we can work with the 30 day and 90 day values.

Current SOI Readings

SOI = 10 X [ Pdiff – Pdiffav ]/ SD(Pdiff) where Pdiff = (average Tahiti MSLP for the month) – (average Darwin MSLP for the month), Pdiffav = long term average of Pdiff for the month in question, and SD(Pdiff) = long term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month in question. So really it is comparing the extent to which Tahiti is more cloudy than Darwin, Australia. During El Nino we expect Darwin Australia to have lower air pressure and more convection than Tahiti (Negative SOI especially lower than -7 correlates with El Nino Conditions). During La Nina we expect the Warm Pool to be further east resulting in Positive SOI values greater than +7).

To some extent it is the change in the SOI that is of most importance. The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Ocean Equatorial Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource.

Forecasting the Evolution of ENSO

The CFS.v2 is not the only forecast tool used by NOAA. The CPC/IRI Analysis which is produced out of The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University is also very important to NOAA.

Here is the most recent update.

IRI Technical ENSO Update

Published: April 19, 2018

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart. During ENSO events, OISSTv2 often shows stronger anomalies than ERSSTv4, and during very strong events the two datasets may differ by as much as 0.5 C. Additionally, the ERSSTv4 may tend to be cooler than OISSTv2, because ERSSTv4 is expressed relative to a base period that is updated every 5 years, while the base period of OISSTv2 is updated every 10 years and so, half of the time, is based on a slightly older period and does not account as much for the slow warming trend in the tropical Pacific SST.

Recent and Current Conditions

In mid-April 2018, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly was at the level of warm-neutral to borderline La Niña. For March the SST anomaly was -0.73 C, indicating weak La Niña, and for January-March it was -0.79 C, also in that range. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C. Similarly, for La Niña, the anomaly must be -0.5 C or less. The climatological probabilities for La Niña, neutral, and El Niño conditions vary seasonally, and are shown in a table at the bottom of this page for each 3-month season. The most recent weekly anomaly in the Nino3.4 region was -0.4, showing warm-neutral conditions. However, the pertinent atmospheric variables, including the lower level zonal wind anomalies, the Southern Oscillation Index and the anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation (convection), continue showing patterns suggestive of La Niña. On the other hand, subsurface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed to moderately above-average, suggesting that the dissipation of the La Niña is imminent, if not occurring right now. Given the current and recent SST anomalies, the subsurface profile and the conditions of most key atmospheric variables, it appears we are currently in transition from weak La Niña to neutral, ending the weak-to-moderate La Niña of 2017-18.

Expected Conditions

What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward? The most recent official diagnosis and outlook was issued approximately one week ago in the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, produced jointly by CPC and IRI; it stated that the La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral during the March-May season. A La Niña Advisory was once again issued with that Discussion. The latest set of model ENSO predictions, from mid-April, now available in the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, is discussed below. Those predictions also suggest that the SST is likely to return to neutral during within the March-May season.

As of mid-March, more than 90% of the dynamical or statistical models predict neutral conditions for the initial Apr-Jun 2018 season, with less than 10% showing a continuation of La Niña conditions. Over the course of the rest of 2018, probabilities for neutral remain greater than 50% through Sep-Nov, after which probabilities for El Niño rise to over 60% for Oct-Dec and over 70% for Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb 2018-19. At lead times of 3 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean’s observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. For the Jul-Sep 2018 season, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, 65% of models predicts neutral conditions and 35% predict El Niño conditions. For all models, predictions for La Niña probabilities are less than 10% for the Apr-Jun and May-Jul periods, and near zero during the second half of 2018.

Note  – Only models that produce a new ENSO prediction every month are included in the above statement.

Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model predictions as the actual probabilities. At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and skill uncertainty must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, leading to more climatological probabilities in the long-lead ENSO Outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models. Furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution from that taken verbatim from the raw model predictions.

An alternative way to assess the probabilities of the three possible ENSO conditions is more quantitatively precise and less vulnerable to sampling errors than the categorical tallying method used above. This alternative method uses the mean of the predictions of all models on the plume, equally weighted, and constructs a standard error function centered on that mean. The standard error is Gaussian in shape, and has its width determined by an estimate of overall expected model skill for the season of the year and the lead time. Higher skill results in a relatively narrower error distribution, while low skill results in an error distribution with width approaching that of the historical observed distribution. This method shows probabilities for La Niña at approximately 10% for the full range of seasons, from Apr-Jun 2018 through to Dec-Feb 2018-19. Probabilities for neutral conditions begin at 90% for Apr-Jun, drop to about 60% for Jun-Aug and to less than 40% from Sep-Nov through the final season of Dec-Feb.  Meanwhile the probabilities for El Niño, which begin at 0% for Apr-Jun, rise to about 30% for Jun-Aug, 40% for Jul-Sep, exceed 50% beginning with Sep-Nov and reach 60-65% for Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb 2018-19.  A plot of the probabilities generated from this most recent IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume using the multi-model mean and the Gaussian standard error method summarizes the model consensus out to about 10 months into the future. The same cautions mentioned above for the distributional count of model predictions apply to this Gaussian standard error method of inferring probabilities, due to differing model biases and skills. In particular, this approach considers only the mean of the predictions, and not the total range across the models, nor the ensemble range within individual models.

In summary, the probabilities derived from the models on the IRI/CPC plume describe, on average, a strong preference for ENSO-neutral from Apr-Jun to Jun-Aug 2018, approximately equal probabilities for neutral or El Niño conditions for Aug-Oct, followed by a period from Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb 2018-19 when El Niño conditions are between approximately 55% and 65% likely. Probabilities for La Niña are roughly 10% throughout the entire forecast period. A caution regarding this latest set of model-based ENSO plume predictions, is that factors such as known specific model biases and recent changes that the models may have missed will be taken into account in the next official outlook to be generated and issued early next month by CPC and IRI, which will include some human judgment in combination with the model guidance.

The above is based on looking at a variety of models and other information but we should not forget that NOAA has their own model.

And here is what is called the plume of a variety of forecast models.

Forecasts from Other Meteorological Agencies.

Here is the JAMSTEC Model Forecast

And the short discussion related to the March 1 ENSO forecast. We should have an updated discussion soon. .

Mar. 16, 2018. Prediction from 1st Mar., 2018 ENSO forecast:

The La Niña-like condition will disappear by late spring. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.

Indian Ocean forecast:

A normal state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist in 2018.

Atlantic Ocean forecast:

The Atlantic Niño appears to develop in 2018.

Regional forecast:

On a seasonal scale, most part of the Eurasian Continent will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in spring and summer. In India, however, we expect colder-than-normal condition in summer. Northwestern U.S., western Canada, northern Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, western, eastern and southern Africa, and northern Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal spring. This colder condition in northern Brazil and southern Africa will stay even in boreal summer.

As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for the Philippines, Indochina, northern India, eastern Africa, Mexico, eastern U.S. and northern Brazil during boreal spring, whereas western/central U.S., Europe, Iran, Indonesia, southern China, Australia, southern Africa, and southern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition during boreal spring. This drier condition will stay in Europe, central U.S., southeastern Australia, and Indonesia in summer.

Most part of Japan will experience warmer and wetter-than-normal conditions in spring and summer; we expect an active rainy season in 2018.

Here is the Nino 3.4 report from the Australian BOM (it updates every two weeks)

And the ENSO Outlook Discussion Issued on April 24, 2018

El Niño–Southern Oscillation expected to remain neutral through winter

In the tropical Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. All climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm slowly, but temperatures will remain close to average through the southern hemisphere winter.  

Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are close to average for this time of year. Beneath the surface, the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than average, but well within the neutral range. In the atmosphere, cloud patterns remain La Niña-like, but trade winds are close to average.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will continue to rise, but remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of the southern autumn and winter. By September, two of the eight models suggest ocean temperatures may approach El Niño thresholds.

Climate model outlooks for ENSO and the IOD have lower accuracy during autumn than at other times of the year. Hence current model outlooks for these climate drivers should be viewed with some caution.

Indian Ocean IOD (It updates every two weeks)

Indian Ocean Dipole Outlook  Discussion Issued April 24, 2018

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The weekly index value to 22 April was −0.03 °C.

Three of the six international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipate that the IOD will become negative IOD during the southern hemisphere winter. A negative IOD during winter tends to enhance rainfall across southern Australia.

It should be noted that outlook skill is lower at this time of year.

The IOD Forecast is indirectly related to ENSO but in a complex way. It is important to understand how and where the IOD is measured.

IOD Positive is the West Area being warmer than the East Area (with of course many adjustments/normalizations). IOD Negative is the East Area being warmer than the West Area. Notice that the Latitudinal extent of the western box is greater than that of the eastern box. This type of index is based on observing how these patterns impact weather and represent the best efforts of meteorological agencies to figure these things out. Global Warming may change the formulas probably slightly over time but it is costly and difficult to redo this sort of work because of long weather cycles.

D. Putting it all Together.

At this time it would seem that La Nina Conditions along the Equator have come to an end. The actual impacts on Worldwide weather lag the change in conditions along the Equator so we may have impacts from this La Nina for one or two more months but these impacts seem to be tailing off quite dramatically.

Forecasting Beyond Five Years.

So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast.

The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS. It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.

The odds of a climate shift for the Pacific taking place has significantly increased. It may be in progress. The AMO is pretty much neutral at this point (but more positive i.e. warm than I had expected) so it may need to become a bit more negative for the “McCabe A” pattern to become established. That seems to be slow to happen so I am thinking we need at least a couple more years for that to happen. Our assessment is that the standard time for Climate Shifts in the Pacific are likely to prevail and it most likely will be a gradual process with a speed up in less than five years but more than two years. The next El Nino may be the trigger and it is probably three or more years out.

E. Relevant Recent Articles and Reports

Weather in the News  

Nothing to Report

Weather Research in the News

Warm Forecast for 2022

Precipitation for California

Warning:  UCAR/NCAR increasingly are reporting results only for RCP 8.5 the so-called “Business as Usual” IPCC Scenario which is extremely unlikely to happen. They offer a feeble excuse that they do not have sufficient computational capacity to assess all four scenarios. That does not mean that these studies are useless but my experience is that there is a huge difference in model results from the RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 when similar studies are presented. So consider the source and the motivation of those who write and publish papers in this area. 

Perhaps the above two reports should should be in the Global Warming Section. I have them in the Weather Research Section simply to provide greater focus for the article in the Global Warming Section as I think it might be more significant.

Global Warming in the News

Convergent evidence for widespread rock nitrogen sources in Earth’s surface environment  Here is the Link. I think this link gets you to the data. This is another link which might be useful.

    B. Z. Houlton1,*,†, S. L. Morford1,2,*, R. A. Dahlgren1

Science  06 Apr 2018:Vol. 360, Issue 6384, pp. 58-62 DOI: 10.1126/science.aan4399

I do not like directing readers to pay walls to obtain information that was publicly funded. But with persistant use of Google, I was able to obtain quite a bit of information related to this research. The links sometimes work and sometimes do not. It may be that when you get there via Google the links open.

Here is the Abstract

Abstract

Nitrogen availability is a pivotal control on terrestrial carbon sequestration and global climate change. Historical and contemporary views assume that nitrogen enters Earth’s land-surface ecosystems from the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that bedrock is a nitrogen source that rivals atmospheric nitrogen inputs across major sectors of the global terrestrial environment. Evidence drawn from the planet’s nitrogen balance, geochemical proxies, and our spatial weathering model reveal that ~19 to 31 teragrams of nitrogen are mobilized from near-surface rocks annually. About 11 to 18 teragrams of this nitrogen are chemically weathered in situ, thereby increasing the unmanaged (preindustrial) terrestrial nitrogen balance from 8 to 26%. These findings provide a global perspective to reconcile Earth’s nitrogen budget, with implications for nutrient-driven controls over the terrestrial carbon sink.

The Supplement contains a lot of information and it can be accessed here.  I have extracted the key graphics and tables. I believe the supplement probably is more useful than the origininal article.

What does it all mean?

I am not sure. Century Link intervened last night and took out my phone and Internet so I have had less time than I wanted to study the materials.

Back to the Houlton et al Paper, I think the above means that the Global Warming models may need to be reviewed to see how well they handle this new information. It may also suggest mitigation strategies. 

F. Table of Contents for Page II of this Report Which Provides a lot of Background Information on Weather and Climate Science

The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)

2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.

4. Computer Models and Methodologies

5. Reserved for a Future Topic (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)

G. Table of Contents of Contents for Page III of this Report – Global Warming Which Some Call Climate Change.

The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

1. Introduction

2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming

3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming

4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming

H. Useful Background Information

The current conditions are measured by determining the deviation of actual sea surface temperatures from seasonal norms (adjusted for Global Warming) in certain parts of the Equatorial Pacific. The below diagram shows those areas where measurements are taken.

NOAA focuses on a combined area which is all of Region Nino 3 and part of Region Nino 4 and it is called Nino 3.4. They focus on that area as they believe it provides the best correlation with future weather for the U.S. primarily the Continental U.S. not including Alaska which is abbreviated as CONUS. The historical approach of measurement of the impact of the sea surface temperature pattern on the atmosphere is called the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which is the difference between the atmospheric pressure at Tahiti as compared to Darwin Australia. It was convenient to do this as weather stations already existed at those two locations and it is easier to have weather stations on land than at sea. It has proven to be quite a good measure. The best information on the SOI is produced by Queensland Australia and that information can be found here. SOI is based on Atmospheric pressure as a surrogate for Convection and Subsidence. Another approach made feasible by the use of satellites is to measure precipitation over the areas of interest and this is called the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Precipitation Index (ESPI). We covered that in a weekly Weather and Climate Report which can be found here. Our conclusion was that ESPI did not differentiate well between La Nina and Neutral. And there is now a newer measure not regularly used called the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). More information on MEI can be found here. The jury is still out on MEI and it it is not widely used.

The below diagram shows the usual location of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. When the warm water shifts to the east we have an El Nino; to the west a La Nina.

Click for Source

Interaction between the MJO and ENSO

This Table is a first attempt at trying to relate the MJO to ENSO

History of ENSO Events as measured by the ONI

The new SON reading of -0.8 is the fifth La Nina Reading. Not all Meteorological Agencies Worldwide will necessarily accept this La Nina to be legitimately declared but most will. The full history of the ONI readings can be found here. The MEI index readings can be found here.

Four Quadrant Jet Streak Model Read more here This is very useful for guessing at weather as a trough passes through. It would apply to the states that are at the apex of the trough.

If the centripetal accelerations owing to flow curvature are small, then we can use the “straight” jet streak model. The schematic figure directly below shows a straight jet streak at the base of a trough in the height field. The core of maximum winds defining the jet streak is divided into four quadrants composed of the upstream (entrance) and downstream (exit) regions and the left and right quadrants, which are defined facing downwind.

Isotachs are shaded in blue for a westerly jet streak (single large arrow). Thick red lines denote geopotential height contours. Thick black vectors represent cross-stream (transverse) ageostrophic winds with magnitudes given by arrow length. Vertical cross sections transverse to the flow in the entrance and exit regions of the jet (J) are shown in the bottom panels along A-A’ and B-B’, respectively. Convergence and divergence at the jet level are denoted by “CON” and “DIV”. “COLD” and “WARM” refer to the air masses defined by the green isentropes.

[Editor’s Note: There are many undefined words in the above so here are some brief definitions. Isotachs are lines of equal wind speed. Convergence is when there is an inflow of air which tends to force the air higher with cooling and cloud formation. Divergence is when there is an outflow of air which tends to result in air sinking which causes drying and warming, Confluence is when two streams of air come together. Diffluence is when part of a stream of air splits off.]

Here is a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.

When we discuss the jet stream and for other reasons, we often discuss different layers of the atmosphere. These are expressed in terms of the atmospheric pressure above that layer. It is kind of counter-intuitive to me. The below table may help the reader translate air pressure to the usual altitude and temperature one might expect at that level of air pressure. It is just an approximation but useful.

Re the above, H8 is a frequently used abbreviation for the height of the 850 millibar level (which is intended to represent the atmosphere above the Boundary Layer most impacted by surface conditions), H7 is the 700 mb level, H5 is the 500 mb level, H3 is the 300 mb level. So if you see those abbreviations in a weather forecast you will know what they are talking about.

Tropical Activity Possibly Impacting CONUS.

When there is activity and I have not provided the specific links to the storm of “immediate” interest, one can obtain that information at this link. At this point in time, no (new) tropical events are expected to appear in this graphic during the next 48 hours. If that changes, we will provide an update.

Now let us look at the Western Pacific in Motion.

The above graphic which I believe covers the area from the Dateline west to 100E and from the Equator north to 45N normally shows the movement of tropical storms towards Asia in the lower latitudes (Trade Winds) and the return of storms towards CONUS in the mid-latitudes (Prevailing Westerlies). This is recent data not a forecast. But, it ties in with the Week 1 forecast in the graphic just above this graphic. Information on Western Pacific storms can be found by clicking here. This (click here to read) is an unofficial private source but one that is easy to read.