Written by Sig Silber
This Article has been updated. To access the updated article click on Maria Threatens Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico – 19Sep2017
1:45 AM EDT Sept 19, 2017: Maria moved over Dominica (see map in body of article) at about 11PM EDT Monday evening. More interactions with land can be expected as per the NHC: “Maria is expected to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles.”
BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017: …EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA…
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This is an active period in the tropics so we are starting with the overview of the situation in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Those potentially impacted by any of these storms should consult their local sources of information. The Public Advisories and other information that is available from the NOAA National Hurricane Center can be found here. Information from the Weather Prediction Center can be found here.
First the Atlantic
More Detail
And now the Pacific.
We start our Report with currently Tropical Storm Maria. The”M” Designation means a very powerful storm: Category 3 or higher.
And the Discussion
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were able to fly a single pass from northwest to southeast through the eye of Maria just prior to 0000 UTC. The aircraft found a peak SFMR wind of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall, i.e. category 5 intensity. Raw objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS reached as high as T7.3 just before the center moved over land. Based on these data, the initial wind speed was increased to 140 kt on the earlier special advisory, and that intensity is maintained for this advisory, although some slight weakening may have occurred as the small core of the hurricane passed over Dominica. Since the center has moved over land, the aircraft has not been able to make a second pass through the eye. The aircraft will be in the storm a few more hours and should be able to provide additional center fixes once the eye moves west of Dominica.
Maria is forecast to remain within an environment of low wind shear and over warm water during the next couple of days. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, Maria is expected to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are possible due during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles. Land interaction and a slight increase in shear are likely to cause some gradual weakening after Maria moves over the southwestern Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.
Maria is moving west-northwestward or 300/8 kt. A weak ridge located over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of Maria is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 5. The track guidance is in good agreement and little change was required to the NHC track forecast through 72 hours. At days 4 and 5, the global model envelope has shifted slightly eastward and the NHC forecast was adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the HFIP correct consensus and ECMWF model.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands.
2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 15.5N 61.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 17.9N 65.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 18.7N 66.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 20.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 22.8N 71.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS… NEVIS… AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO… CULEBRA… AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER
Here is the current Track Map for Jose.
Jose Discussion
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017
Aircraft data indicate that the peak winds of Jose haven’t changed much since the last flight, with similar pressure values and flight-level winds. The wind speed will remain 65 kt in accordance with the flight-level winds, but this could be generous as the SFMR was a bit lower.
Satellite images show that Jose has become a little less tropical, with an elongated cloud pattern suggesting that the cyclone has some hybrid characteristics. Jose should eventually weaken in a day or so as it moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream into a more stable environment. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which is similar to much of the guidance, and Jose should become post-tropical in a few days. The long range forecast intensity depends on how far south the system moves, but since the predicted track is still over cool waters, slow weakening is anticipated.
The center of Jose took a north-northwest turn earlier tonight due to a convective burst, but it now appears it is back to moving toward the north. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. All of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore of southern New England, but close enough to cause tropical-storm-force winds for a portion of the area. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose drifting to the south and southwest under a blocking ridge forming over the northeastern United States. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England.
2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. This rainfall could cause isolate flooding. Elsewhere Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the majority of the mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 35.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 36.2N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 39.4N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 38.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WATCH HILL TO HULL
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA’S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON
* NEW HAVEN TO WATCH HILL
General Weather Situation
We believe that it is easier to understand what is going on with individual storms if they are put into the context of the overall weather situation.
Some of the graphics below show the two storms of most interest. Other graphics will be more relevant for Jose as it moves north and comes into view.
Additional Graphics
This is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. This graphic is now very relevant as one can see three storms in this graphic. .
