Written by Sig Silber
The recent series of Pacific storms is coming to an end. There may be one more for the Northwest. We have some activity along the East Coast. It seems that we are in a period where the weather pattern is changing every two weeks. It is partly related to the time of the year and partly related to the transition from a Near-La Nina Cool Event to pretty much straight-forward ENSO Neutral. For some reason, NOAA is having difficulty coming to grips with that.This does not show up in the short-term weather forecasts based on “dynamic models” as they simply work from current observed conditions (human input is involved), but it impacts longer-term forecasts which we reported on Saturday night. Most importantly it is misleading. The underlying problem may well be that our current system for characterizing the phases of ENSO may not be as sophisticated as needed to have the characterizations be maximally useful.
From this morning’s NOAA ENSO Update, “Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions”:
* NOAA must maintain that position until February 9th when they receive updated talking points. This is an overly rigid way of running a Meteorological Agency.
First some housekeeping information. For those who want the forecasts beyond three months, we reported two days ago on the January 19 NOAA 15-Month Forecast and compared the first nine months of the NOAA Outlook with that of JAMSTEC in a special Update that you can get to by clicking here. Remember if you leave this page to visit links provided in this article, you can return by hitting your “Back Arrow”, usually top left corner of your screen just to the left of the URL box. We will of course publish a new 15 Month Update Report shortly after NOAA issues their update on February 16, 2017.
A. Focus on Alaska and CONUS (all U.S. except Hawaii)
First Let us focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.
This graphic provides a good indication of where the moisture is. It is a bit different than just moisture imagery as it is quantitative.
Image credit: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD. More explanation can be found at Atmospheric Rivers (Click to read full Weather Underground Dr. Bob Henson article)
To turn the above into a forecasting tool click here and you will have a dashboard for a short-term forecasting model.
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below.
The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.
U.S. 3 Day to 7 Day Forecasts
Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 3. The Day 6 forecast can be found here.
You can enlarge the below daily (days 3 – 7) weather maps for CONUS by clicking on Day 3 or Day 4 or Day 5 or Day 6 or Day 7. These maps auto-update so whenever you click on them they will be forecast maps for the number of days in the future shown.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. More information is available here.
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Because “Thickness Lines” are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define “Thickness” and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. Remember that 540 relates to sea level.
The graphic that I have been showing below was the Eastern Pacific a 24 hr loop of recent readings. When working, it does a good job of showing what is going on right now. When I published and in recent weeks, that graphic was not being displayed but the NOAA website indicated that was a temporary outage. So for the time being I have substituted a static version of that image which works almost as well. However you can obtain somewhat similar imagery loop image by clicking here. It actually provides more functionality than the either the previously or currently displayed version but you have to click to get it as I have not figured out how to get it to display otherwise. It is really cool imagery and explains a lot. For now you have the static image without clicking but can click to view a more elaborate loop image. The loop image provides a better feel for the speed at which things are taking place. But this Quasi-Polar view provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.
I have stopped showing the Tropical events graphic. We are still having tropical events even though it is January but we can track them with the other graphics that I am presenting including the graphic above and below. They are both the same graphic which you can tell by looking at the date and time stamp but the above graphic covers a larger area and is centered on the Eastern Pacific and the graphic below is centered on North America. That provides more resolution than trying to work with a single graphic that covers a larger fraction of Planet Earth.
Below is the current water vapor Imagery for North America. It is an enlargement of the graphic two above which covers the Eastern Pacific and CONUS and this is an enlargement of the CONUS portion.
Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream.
First the current situation. Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems. The sub-Jetstream level intensity winds shown by the vectors in this graphic are also very important in understanding the impacts north and south of the Jet Stream which is the higher-speed part of the wind circulation and is shown in gray on this map. In some cases however a Low-Pressure System becomes separated or “cut off” from the Jet Stream. In that case it’s movements may be more difficult to predict until that disturbance is again recaptured by the Jet Stream. This usually is more significant for the lower half of CONUS i.e. further south than the Jet Stream.
Now looking at the 5 Day Forecast
.
Putting the Jet Stream into Motion and Looking Forward a Few Days Also
To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.
This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.
When we discuss the jet stream and for other reasons, we often discuss different layers of the atmosphere. These are expressed in terms of the atmospheric pressure above that layer. It is kind of counter-intuitive to me. The below table may help the reader translate air pressure to the usual altitude and temperature one might expect at that level of air pressure. It is just an approximation but useful.
Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on “earth” adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on “earth” to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns. This amazing graphic covers North and South America. It could be included in the Worldwide weather forecast section of this report but it is useful here re understanding the wind circulation patterns.
Four- Week Outlook
I am going to show (for reference purposes), the three-month FMA Outlook. the Early Outlook for the single month of February, the 6 – 10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Maps and the Week 3 – 4 Experimental Outlook. I use “EC” in my discussions although NOAA sometimes uses “EC” (Equal Chances) and sometimes uses “N” (Normal) to pretty much indicate the same thing although “N” may be more definitive.
First – Temperature
Here is the Three-Month FMA Temperature Outlook issued on January 19, 2017:
Here is the Temperature Outlook for February issued on January 19, 2017
6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook issued today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 23 was 3 out of 5)
8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook issued today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 23 was 3 out of 5)
Looking further out.
January 29 to February 6 | February 4 to February 17 |
Alaska will be warm. The West, Southern Tier, and Southeastern CONUS will start out being cool except for a narrow sliver of the West Coast benefiting from offshore winds. A warm Northern Tier anomaly from the Dakotas east to the Great Lakes will gradually extend further south into the Great Plains and eventually to Texas and neighboring states as well as towards the East Coast.. | Northwest Alaska will remain warm. It will be warm for CONUS West and cool in the Southeast Quadrant of CONUS along the Southern Tier extending in the west up the Pacific Coast through California and in the eastern half of CONUS up the Mississippi Value into most of Illinois and Indiana. There will be a cool anomaly in extreme New England and a larger cool anomaly extending southwest from upper Michigan through Eastern Montana to Utah and into part of Northeast Nevada. Between the warm and cool anomalies it will be EC, The transition to the pattern shown in the Week 3 – 4 Forecast from the pattern shown in the 8-14 Day forecast seems to be feasible. |
Remember the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook was issued last Friday and I am looking at the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts issued today i.e. Monday. So that explains the overlap of dates. Remember that the Week 3 – 4 Forecast covers two weeks so it can appear to not mesh perfectly but actually do so over the two-week period. |
Now – Precipitation
Here is the three-month FMA Precipitation Outlook issued on January 19, 2017
And here is the Updated Precipitation Outlook for February issued on January 19, 2017
6 – 10 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 23 was 3 out of 5)
8 – 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 23 was 3 out of 5)
Looking further out.
.
January 29 to February 6 | February 4 to February 17, 2017 |
Alaska is wet, CONUS starts out dry but the dry anomaly gradually shrinks to the south and east with EC and wet anomalies filling in those areas. . | Western Alaska turns dry but the Alaskan Panhandle is wet. For CONUS there are three dry anomalies shown: one for the Western Great Lakes States extending down into Northern Missouri. There is a large western Southern Tier dry anomaly and another in South Florida and these may really be the same pattern missing certain states simply because it is too far south to include them. The one wet anomaly extends from just east of the Northwest Coast into Northwest North Dakota.The Week 3 – 4 forecast is in part a significant change from the 8 – 14 Day forecast with respect to the Northern Tier suggesting that one or the other may not work out at least early in the period. |
Remember the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook was issued last Friday and I am looking at the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts issued today i.e. Monday. So that explains the overlap of dates. Remember that the Week 3 – 4 Forecast covers two weeks so it can appear to not mesh perfectly but actually do so over the two-week period. |
Here is the NOAA discussion released today January 23, 2017
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 – FEB 02, 2017
TODAY’S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. TODAY’S BLENDED 500-HPA CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE.
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S., UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S., FAVORING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK THAT BRINGS STORM SYSTEMS OVER ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON UPPER LEVEL, OFFSET BY SOME DYNAMIC MODEL TOOLS DISAGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 – FEB 06, 2017
BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE TROUGH NEAR ALASKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE CONUS, TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORECAST BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN CONUS, DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS THERE.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS EXCEPT ALASKA SOUTH COAST AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE IN THE AREA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS, BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF COAST REGION AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INACTIVE OF THE STORM TRACK BEHIND OF THE FORECAST TROUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME DYNAMIC MODEL TOOLS DISAGREEMENT AND INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 16
Some might find this analysis click to read interesting as the organization which prepares it focuses on the Pacific Ocean and looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of ENSO events.
Analogs to the Outlook.
Now let us take a detailed look at the “Analogs” which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. “Analog” means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 – 14 day Outlook.
Here are today’s analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the Outlook but I have not been regularly analyzing this second set of information. The first set which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set, which I am not using, relates to the correlation of the forecasted outlook 6 – 10 days out with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 – 10 Day Outlook. The second set of analogs may also be useful information but they put the first set of analogs in the discussion with the second set available by a link so I am assuming that the first set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so.
Day | ENSO Phase | PDO | AMO | Other Comments |
Jan 24, 1956 | La Nina | – | + | |
Jan 27, 1958 | El Nino | +(t) | + | Modoki Type II |
Jan 2, 1992 | El Nino | + | – | Modoki Type II |
Jan 3, 1992 | El Nino | + | – | Modoki Type II |
Jan 13, 1995 | El Nino | -(t) | – | Modoki |
Jan 18, 1995 | El Nino | -(t) | – | Modoki |
Jan 15, 2006 | El Nino | + | + | |
Jan 6, 2008 | La Nina | – | + |
(t) = a month where the Ocean Cycle Index has just changed or does change the following month.
One thing that jumped out at me right away was the spread among the analogs from January 2 to January 27 which is 26 days the same as last week. I have not calculated the centroid of this distribution which would be the better way to look at things but the midpoint, which is a lot easier to calculate, is about January 15. These analogs are centered on 3 days and 4 days ago (January 18 or January 19). So the analogs could be considered to be a bit out of sync with the calendar meaning that we will be getting weather a little earlier than we would normally get for this time of the year.
For more information on Analogs see discussion in the GEI Weather Page Glossary.
There are six El Nino Analogs, two La Nina Analogs and zero ENSO Neutral Analogs. Looks like the analogs are suggesting that El Nino Conditions Apply. The phase of the ocean cycles is totally indecisive. This suggests that the NOAA 6 – 14 Day Outlook and Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook is as good a guess as any other guess.
The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time. One of the major reasons that I write this weather and climate column is to encourage a more long-term and World view of weather.
McCabe Condition | Main Characteristics |
A | Very Little Drought. Southern Tier and Northern Tier from Dakotas East Wet |
B | More wet than dry but Great Plains Dry |
C | Northern Tier and Mid-Atlantic Drought |
D | Southwest Drought extending to the North and also the Great Lakes |
You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.
Historical Anomaly Analysis
When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.
Recent CONUS Weather
This is provided mainly to see the pattern in the weather that has occurred recently.
Here is the 30 Days ending January 14, 2017
And the 30 Days ending January 21, 2017
B. Beyond Alaska and CONUS Let’s Look at the World which of Course also includes Alaska and CONUS
Todays Forecast
Additional Maps showing different weather variables can be found here.
Near Term
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool.
Although I can not display the interactive control panel in my article, I can display any of the graphics it provides so below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for three days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 3 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here
Precipitation
Temperature
Looking Out a Few Months
Here is the new precipitation forecast from Queensland Australia:
JAMSTEC
JAMSTEC issued their ENSO forecasts and climate maps on January 10. We published a special Update Report on Saturday Night January 21 which can be accessed by clicking here. Remember if you leave this page to visit links provided in this article, you can return by hitting your “Back Arrow”, usually top left corner of your screen just to the left of the URL box. One can always find the latest JAMSTEC maps at this link. You will find additional maps that I do not general cover in my monthly Update Repor.t
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal for this Time of the Year i.e. Anomalies
And when we look at the current Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to ENSO.
Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.
Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the January 17, 2017 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
* Moderate Confidence that the indicated anomaly will be in the upper or lower third of the historical range as indicated in the Legend.
Look at the Western Pacific in Motion. NOAA is having problems with their web site so I have temporarily substituted a static image but you can find a somewhat similar loop version by clicking here. It actually provides more functionality than the displayed version but you have to click to get it as I have not figured out how to get it to display otherwise.
C. Progress of the Cool ENSO Event
Starting with Surface Conditions.
TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC (a good way of viewing data related to the part of the Equator and the waters close to the Equator in the Eastern Pacific where we monitor to determining the current phase of ENSO. It is probably not necessary to follow the discussion below, but here is a link to TAO/TRITON terminology.
And here is the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.
———————————————— | A | B | C | D | E | —————– |
The below table which only looks at the Equator shows the extent of anomalies along the Equator. I had split the table to show warm, neutral, and cool anomalies. The top rows showed El Nino anomalies. When there were no more El Nino anomalies along the Equator, I eliminated those rows. The two rows just below that break point contribute to ENSO Neutral and after another break, the rows are associated with La Nina conditions. I have changed the reference date to May 23, 1016.
Subareas of the Anomaly | Westward Extension | Eastward Extension | Degrees of Coverage | |||||
As of Today | May 23, 2016 | As of Today | May 23 2016 | As of Today | In Nino 3.4 | Dec 12, 2016 | May 23, 2016 | |
These Rows Show the Extent of ENSO Neutral Impacts on the Equator | ||||||||
0.5C or cooler Anomaly | Dateline | 155E | Land | 155W | 85 | 50 | 95 | 50 |
0C or cooler Anomaly | 170W | 155W | LAND* | Land | 75 | 50 | 85 | 60 |
These Rows Show the Extent of the La Nina Impacts on the Equator | ||||||||
-0.5C or cooler | 165W | 145W | 145W | Land | 20 | 20 | 65 | 50 |
-1C or cooler Anomaly | LAND | 140W | LAND | 105W | 0 | 0 | 40 | 35 |
-1.5C or cooler Anomaly | LAND | 135W | LAND | 120W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
* Actually the -0.5C for the moment is not on the Equator east of about 135W. The water south of the Equator has been warmer and right now shows on the Equator and slightly north of the Equator. But for the moment I am showing the 0C anomaly to be on the Equator from 170W to LAND. This graphic changes daily and the warm intrusion might back off or may not. If it still is crossing the Equator next week I will report it as no longer extending to Land. Right now there is actually a small area of +0.5C or El Nino level water within the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area.
I calculate the current value of the ONI index (really the value of NINO 3.4 as the ONI is not reported as a daily value) each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W Nino 3.4 measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions.
So as of Monday January 23, in the afternoon working from the January 22 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated. [Although the TAO/TRITON Graphic appears to update once a day, in reality it updates more frequently.]
Anomaly Segment | Estimated Anomaly | |
Last Week | This Week | |
A. 170W to 160W | -0.6 | -0.3 |
B. 160W to 150W | -0.7 | -0.5 |
C. 150W to 140W | -0.4 | -0.4 |
D. 140W to 130W | -0.0 | -0.1 |
E. 130W to 120W | +0.2 | +0.1. |
Total | -1.5 | -1.2 |
Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI | (-1.5)5 = -03 | (-1.2)/5 = -0.2 |
From Tropical Tidbits.com
The above is from a legacy “frozen” NOAA system meaning the software is maintained but not updated. It seems to show a cycle in the Nino 3.4 Index Values. I see that as I monitor the TAO/TRITON graphic. My best guess is that it is related to the MJO but it certainly is intriguing. If this was read like a stock chart one might conclude that there had been a triple bottom and an upside breakout. Below is a “frozen” version of this graphic that I updated last week with the trend lines for the highs and lows added. I think it is pretty clear that this method of analysis has value. One sees the Nino 3.4 value as reported by the CDAS system to be hovering at the 0C level.
Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies
It is the ocean surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. So we are interested in the actual ocean surface temperatures and the departure from seasonal normal temperatures which is called “departures” or “anomalies”. Since warm water facilitates evaporation which results in cloud convection, the pattern of SST anomalies suggests how the weather pattern east of the anomalies will be different than normal.
I had stopped showing the below graphic which is more focused on the Equator but looks down to 300 meters rather than just being the surface. But over the last month there has been sufficient change to warrant including this graphic.
Let us look in more detail at the Equatorial Water Temperatures.
We are now going to change the way we look at a three-dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view and an average of the subsurface heat content to a more detailed view from the surface down. Notice by the date of the graphic (dated January 18, 2017) that the lag in getting this information posted so the current situation may be a bit different than shown although this graphic was updated on late Monday so it is more current than usual. The date shown is the midpoint of a five-day period with that date as the center of the five-day period.
Below is the pair of graphics that I regularly provide. The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters. At different times and today in particular, I have discussed the difference between the actual values and the deviation of the actual values from what is defined as current climatology (which adjusts every ten years except along the Equator where it is adjusted every five years) and how both measures are useful but for different purposes.
The bottom half of the graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline) is now more useful as we track the progress of this new Cool Event.
Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.
Although I did not fully discuss the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures which remains relevant. What we had until this morning was only the upwelling phase of the series of Kelvin waves last winter. I guess NOAA has not clearly designated that upwelling phase as a new Kelvin Wave but they did put a “dash” through it in the graphic shown earlier.
And now Let us look at the Atmosphere.
Low-Level Wind Anomalies near the Equator
Here are the low-level wind anomalies.
And now the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place.
And Now the Air Pressure which Shows up Mostly in an Index called the SOI.
This index provides an easy way to assess the location of and the relative strength of the Convection (Low Pressure) and the Subsidence (High Pressure) near the Equator. Experience shows that the extent to which the Atmospheric Air Pressure at Tahiti exceeds the Atmospheric Pressure at Darwin Australia when normalized is substantially correlated with the Precipitation Pattern of the entire World.
Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.
Date | Current Reading | 30-Day Average | 90 Day Average |
Jan 17 | -6.78 | +6.05 | +0.74 |
Jan 18 | -26.47 | +4.99 | +0.49 |
Jan 19 | -33.54 | +3.09 | +0.07 |
Jan 20 | -18.51 | +1.78 | -0.12 |
Jan 21 | -29.72 | +1.11 | -0.24 |
Jan 22 | -32.12 | +0.61 | -0.53 |
Jan 23 | -23.31 | +0.10 | -0.83 |
The 30 Day Average on January 23 was reported as +0.10 which is ENSO Neutral and a big decline from last Monday. The 90 Day Average was reported at -0.83 which is also down quite a bit from last Monday. That is why looking at both the 30 and 90 day averages is useful and both clearly indicate that we are in ENSO Neutral.
To some extent it is the change in the SOI that is of most importance. It had been increasing in September but now in October and November and through most of December has stabilized in the Neutral Range. So far in January there has not been much change. That could change but for now the SOI is not signaling a La Nina but ENSO Neutral..
The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource. December was not particularly favorable for La Nina development and most likely neither will be January in terms of the MJO.The forecasts of the MJO are now suggesting an Inactive Phase. The MJO being Inactive is more favorable for the creation of a La Nina than the MJO being Active. But for a mature westerly displaced cool event the Inactive Phase of the MJO may be negative for that cool event.
The MJO tends to be more important when the situation is ENSO Neutral and the MJO can start the process of an El Nino getting started. It is surprising how weak the MJO has been for months. But it may account for what seems to be a cycling of the estimate of Nino 3.4 as the cool water is blown first to the west and then to the east. This impacts the upwelling also.
Forecasting the Evolution of ENSO
We now have the January both the early-month report from CPC/IRI which I call the reading of the tea leaves in that it is based on a combination of model results and a survey of the views of meteorologists and the mid-month model-based report. [here is an idea to save some taxpayer money – lose the Tea Leaves Report as the real report is issued just a week later].
First Last week;s Tea Leaves report.
The official CPC/IRI ENSO probability forecast, based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters. It is updated during the first half of the month, in association with the official CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. It is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. It uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in the Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast relies solely on model output. This is updated on the second Thursday of every month.
As usual, the Tea Leaves Report tends to be bit more partial to La Nina than the second report of the month. Nevertheless the Tea Leaves Report shows the probability of ENSO Neutral is higher than the probability of La Nina for DJF and we are in the midpoint of that three month .And here is the discussion that was released with the graphic.
During early January 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Many of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific have also remained consistent with weak La Niña conditions, although some have become only weakly so. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have continued to be weakly suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall have remain suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs, now near the threshold of La Niña, will dissipate to neutral levels by February.
But first the December 15, 2016 fully model-based version
Here is the discussion released with the January 19 Graphic
Recent and Current Conditions
Since August 2016, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly has been near or slightly cooler than -0.5 C, indicative of a weak La Niña SST condition. For December the SST anomaly was -0.42, and for Sep-Nov it was -0.57 C. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C. Similarly, for La Niña, the anomaly must be -0.5 C or less. The climatological probabilities for La Niña, neutral, and El Niño conditions vary seasonally, and are shown in a table at the bottom of this page for each 3-month season. The most recent weekly anomaly in the Nino3.4 region was -0.3, in the ENSO-neutral level. However, accompanying this ocean condition are atmospheric variables that mainly continue to indicate borderline or weak La Niña. The lower-level trade winds have been enhanced only weakly, while the upper level has shown slightly more convincing westerly anomalies. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) had been positive but has averaged just weakly so since November. On the other hand, convection anomalies across the equatorial Pacific have been suggestive of La Niña. Subsurface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific have essentially returned to average. Overall, given the SST and the atmospheric conditions, the diagnosis of weak La Niña remains appropriate but the event is thought likely to be in the process of dissipation.
Expected Conditions
What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward? The most recent official diagnosis and outlook was issued one week ago in the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, produced jointly by CPC and IRI; it carries a La Niña advisory but called for the weak La Niña to return to neutral by February. The latest set of model ENSO predictions, from mid-January, now available in the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, is discussed below. Those predictions suggest that the SST is most likely to be in the ENSO-neutral range from January-March season forward through most of 2017, but with increased uncertainty from around May onward.
As of mid-January, 12% of the dynamical or statistical models predicts La Niña conditions for the initial Jan-Mar 2017 season, while 88% predict neutral ENSO. At lead times of 3 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean’s observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. For the Apr-Jun 2017 season, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, no model predicts La Niña conditions, 90% predicts ENSO-neutral conditions, and 10% predicts El Niño conditions. For all model types, the probabilities for La Niña are below 10% for from Feb-Apr through Sep-Nov 2017. The probability for neutral conditions is near or above 90% from Jan-Mar through Apr-Jun 2017, dropping to between 60 and 65% from Jun-Aug through Sep-Nov. Probabilities for El Niño are near zero initially, rise to 25% by May-Jul 2017, and to near 35% from Jun-Aug to Sep-Nov. Recent and Current Conditions
Since August 2016, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly has been near or slightly cooler than -0.5 C, indicative of a weak La Niña SST condition. For December the SST anomaly was -0.42, and for Sep-Nov it was -0.57 C. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C. Similarly, for La Niña, the anomaly must be -0.5 C or less. The climatological probabilities for La Niña, neutral, and El Niño conditions vary seasonally, and are shown in a table at the bottom of this page for each 3-month season. The most recent weekly anomaly in the Nino3.4 region was -0.3, in the ENSO-neutral level. However, accompanying this ocean condition are atmospheric variables that mainly continue to indicate borderline or weak La Niña. The lower-level trade winds have been enhanced only weakly, while the upper level has shown slightly more convincing westerly anomalies. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) had been positive but has averaged just weakly so since November. On the other hand, convection anomalies across the equatorial Pacific have been suggestive of La Niña. Subsurface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific have essentially returned to average. Overall, given the SST and the atmospheric conditions, the diagnosis of weak La Niña remains appropriate but the event is thought likely to be in the process of dissipation.
Expected Conditions
What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward? The most recent official diagnosis and outlook was issued one week ago in the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, produced jointly by CPC and IRI; it carries a La Niña advisory but called for the weak La Niña to return to neutral by February. The latest set of model ENSO predictions, from mid-January, now available in the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, is discussed below. Those predictions suggest that the SST is most likely to be in the ENSO-neutral range from January-March season forward through most of 2017, but with increased uncertainty from around May onward.
As of mid-January, 12% of the dynamical or statistical models predicts La Niña conditions for the initial Jan-Mar 2017 season, while 88% predict neutral ENSO. At lead times of 3 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean’s observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. For the Apr-Jun 2017 season, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, no model predicts La Niña conditions, 90% predicts ENSO-neutral conditions, and 10% predicts El Niño conditions. For all model types, the probabilities for La Niña are below 10% for from Feb-Apr through Sep-Nov 2017. The probability for neutral conditions is near or above 90% from Jan-Mar through Apr-Jun 2017, dropping to between 60 and 65% from Jun-Aug through Sep-Nov. Probabilities for El Niño are near zero initially, rise to 25% by May-Jul 2017, and to near 35% from Jun-Aug to Sep-Nov.
Here is the daily PDF and Spread Corrected version of the NOAA CFSv2 Forecast Model.
The full list of weekly values can be found here.
Here is the NOAA statement on ENSO released on January 12.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 January 2017 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO-neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017.
La Niña continued during December, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continuing across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño index values fluctuated during the last month, with the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions hovering near and slightly warmer than -0.5°C (Fig. 2). [Editors note: If the Nino 3.4 Temperature Anomaly is warmer than -0.5C it is not La Nina Conditions]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly was near zero when averaged across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), though near-to-below average subsurface temperatures were evident closer to the surface (Fig. 4). Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western Pacific, and upper-level westerly anomalies were observed across the eastern Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remained consistent with a weak La Niña.
The multi-model averages favor an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C), with ENSO-neutral lasting through August-October (ASO) 2017 (Fig. 6). Along with the model forecasts, the decay of the subsurface temperature anomalies and marginally cool conditions at and near the ocean surface portends the return of ENSO-neutral over the next month. In summary, a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO-neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Even as the tropical Pacific Ocean returns to ENSO-neutral conditions, the atmospheric impacts from La Niña could persist during the upcoming months (NOAA’s 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday January 19th). The current seasonal outlook for JFM 2017 favors above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across much of the southern tier of the U.S., and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in portions of the northern tier of the U.S.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 February 2017. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
Forecasts from Other Meteorological Agencies.
Here is the Nino 3.4 report from the Australian BOM (it updates every two weeks)
Discussion (notice their threshold criteria are different from NOAA but also their actuals are higher (less La Nina-ish) than reported by NOAA and yet Nino 3.4 is standard. So someone is incorrect OR WORSE.)
Here is the discussion.
Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO neutral
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia. When ENSO is in a neutral phase weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors.
Most indicators of ENSO, such as sea surface temperatures, the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the trade winds are within the ENSO-neutral range. However, cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like pattern.
All climate models indicate that the Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO neutral through the southern summer and autumn. Model outlooks that span the autumn period tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, therefore outlooks beyond May should be used with caution.
We now have the new JAMSTEC January 1, 2017 ENSO forecast.
The model shows that we are in ENSO Neutral. The potential for an El Nino next winter is shown but right now the duration is too short to be recorded as an El Nino. That may change but we are dealing with the Spring Predictability Barrier SPB so it is way too early to be predicting next winter.
The Discussion that goes with their Nino 3.4 forecast has just been released.
Jan. 16, 2017 Prediction from 1st Jan., 2017
ENSO forecast:
The latest SINTEX-F prediction suggests the termination of the current weak La Niña Modoki/La Niña state in coming months. Majority of the ensemble members continue to indicate recurrence of a weak El Niño event in the latter half of 2017. It will be interesting if an El Niño event really evolves in 2017, which may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state, which led to the global warming hiatus.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The predictions continue to suggest development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in coming boreal fall. We also expect the Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia in austral fall.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of eastern Canada, northern Brazil, and western Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal spring.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern part of Brazil, western Australia and South Africa during the austral fall. Most parts of southeastern China, Indonesia, eastern Africa, western half of Europe, northern part of South America (including Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana) will experience a drier condition during the austral fall, whereas the Philippines, Indochina, southern Mexico, and the eastern half of Europe will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Most parts of Japan will be warmer and drier than normal in boreal spring. However, we note that highly fluctuating mid- and -high latitude climate may not be captured well by the current model.
Indian Ocean IOD (It updates every two weeks)
The IOD Forecast is indirectly related to ENSO but in a complex way.
Discussion
Indian Ocean Dipole outlooks
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The weekly index value to 15 January is −0.21 °C.
The influence of the IOD on Australian climate is weak during December to April. This is due to the monsoon trough shifting south over the tropical Indian Ocean and changing the overall wind circulation, which in turn prevents an IOD ocean temperature pattern from being able to form. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD for the end of autumn.
D. Putting it all Together.
Looks like this Cool Event is no longer even properly described as “La Nina Conditions Apply”. But it still is.
Forecasting Beyond Five Years.
So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS. It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder. Parts of that discussion are in the beginning section of this week’s Report.
E. Relevant Recent Articles and Reports
Weather in the News
Weather Research in the News
Nothing to report.
Global Warming in the News
There will be a Climate Conference sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) February 5 – 10 in Santa Fe, New Mexico and I will be giving a talk on Southwest Climate and we will publish my talk on or about February 10..
F. Table of Contents for Page II of this Report Which Provides a lot of Background Information on Weather and Climate Science
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)
2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD
3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.
4. Computer Models and Methodologies
5. Reserved for a Future Topic (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)
G. Table of Contents of Contents for Page III of this Report – Global Warming Which Some Call Climate Change.
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming
3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming
4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming
Useful Background Information
With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.
El Ninos | La Ninas | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | |
DJF 1950 | J FM 1951 | -1.4 | – | N | ||||||
T | JJA 1951 | DJF 1952 | 0.9 | – | + | |||||
DJF 1953 | DJF 1954 | 0.8 | – | + | AMJ 1954 | AMJ 1956 | -1.6 | – | + | |
M | MAM 1957 | JJA 1958 | 1.7 | + | – | |||||
M | SON 1958 | JFM 1959 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
M | JJA 1963 | JFM 1964 | 1.2 | – | – | AMJ 1964 | DJF 1965 | -0.8 | – | – |
M | MJJ 1965 | MAM 1966 | 1.8 | – | – | NDJ 1967 | MAM 1968 | -0.8 | – | – |
M | OND 1968 | MJJ 1969 | 1.0 | – | – | |||||
T | JAS 1969 | DJF 1970 | 0.8 | N | – | JJA 1970 | DJF 1972 | -1.3 | – | – |
T | AMJ 1972 | FMA 1973 | 2.0 | – | – | MJJ 1973 | JJA 1974 | -1.9 | – | – |
SON 1974 | FMA 1976 | -1.6 | – | – | ||||||
T | ASO 1976 | JFM 1977 | 0.8 | + | – | |||||
M | ASO 1977 | DJF 1978 | 0.8 | N | – | |||||
M | SON 1979 | JFM 1980 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
T | MAM 1982 | MJJ 1983 | 2.1 | + | – | SON 1984 | MJJ 1985 | -1.1 | + | – |
M | ASO 1986 | JFM 1988 | 1.6 | + | – | AMJ 1988 | AMJ 1989 | -1.8 | – | – |
M | MJJ 1991 | JJA 1992 | 1.6 | + | – | |||||
M | SON 1994 | FMA 1995 | 1.0 | – | – | JAS 1995 | FMA 1996 | -1.0 | + | + |
T | AMJ 1997 | AMJ 1998 | 2.3 | + | + | JJA 1998 | FMA 2001 | -1.6 | – | + |
M | MJJ 2002 | JFM 2003 | 1.3 | + | N | |||||
M | JJA 2004 | MAM 2005 | 0.7 | + | + | |||||
T | ASO 2006 | DJF 2007 | 1.0 | – | + | JAS 2007 | MJJ 2008 | -1.4 | – | + |
M | JJA 2009 | MAM 2010 | 1.3 | N | + | JJA 2010 | MAM 2011 | -1.4 | + | + |
JAS 2011 | FMA 2012 | -0.9 | – | + | ||||||
T | MAM 2015 | NA | 1.0 | + | N |
ONI Recent History
The Aug/Sept/Oct reading has been issued and is now updated to be -0.8. The Sep/Oct/Nov preliminary estimate is -0.8 and the preliminary OND has just come out as -0.8 so there would now need for there to be only one more period of -0.5 or colder for this to be eligible to be formally recorded as a La Nina. I suspect there will be one more. NOAA seems to be determined to make that happen. THEIR FUNDING OR CAREER PATHS MAY DEPEND ON THAT.
The full history of the ONI readings can be found here. The MEI index readings can be found here.