Written by Sig Silber
The science theme tonight is Modokis for which we, to a large extent, thank JAMSTEC. We will also cover the mature and declining phase of this quasi-La Nina which NOAA recently, just as the quasi-La Nina was entering the decline phase, declared “La Nina Conditions Apply” which was eerily similar to the call reversed a week later of the El Nino of 2014/2015. This raises questions. The late call, which itself was debatable, could simply be a debatable interpretation that should have been made two months earlier, a rush to take credit, or something much more concerning. Of course we will tonight also cover the forecasts for the U.S. and World. Lots to cover for a week without a major NOAA data release.
First some housekeeping information. Working on a Glossary of Terms but right now it is empty. But, at some point, it will be possible to look up acronyms etc by going to the GEI Weather Page Glossary. Also for those who want the forecasts beyond three months, we reported previously on the November 17 NOAA 15 Month Forecast and compared the first ten months of the NOAA Outlook with that of JAMSTEC in a special Update that you can get to by clicking here. We will of course publish a new 15 Month Update Report shortly after December 15, 2016. Remember if you leave this page to visit links provided in this article, you can return by hitting your “Back Arrow”, usually top left corner of your screen just to the left of the URL box.
Thinking About JAMSTEC. This presentation may help explain what they do. It is a separate agency from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and quite frankly I think they are very competitive with each other and have some overlap in what they do. It is a very interesting situation.
Of particular interest is JAMSTEC’s work on ENSO Modoki. The primary credit goes to Kamururi Ashok and this 2007 Paper provides the first detailed report on this (although I think another team also reported on the Modoki in 2007). The impetuous for the work by Ashok et al was from a Japanese Reporter who noticed something strange about the 2004 El Nino. I believe the Ashok team developed the formula for the Modoki Index used by JAMSTEC and others today. Today I believe that Dr. Ashok is currently associated with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (and I believe he moved to Korea (APEC Climate Center, Busan, Republic of Korea) shortly after publishing this paper, making my point that when it comes to understanding the tropics, Asia is more advanced than the U.S. And yet the tropics are a major control of CONUS weather. This is a problem that needs to be addressed. ·
Although ENSO Modoki was not necessarily discovered by Japan, they pay the most attention to the differences in ENSO events especially what is called a Modoki (meaning similar but different).That may not be totally correct as much Modoki research has been funded and performed in the U.S., but somehow it does not filter up to NOAA forecasts (large bureaucracy perhaps or many other possible reasons). So we look to Japan for focusing in on the various “flavors” of ENSO phases. For CONUS, it seems to make the most difference in the Warm Phase but it does have some impacts in the Cool Phase also but La Nina Modoki may create the most impact in the Western Pacific where it impacts storm tracks which is of great Interest to the Chinese.
The NOAA approach is to look exclusively at the Nino 3.4 area of the Tropical Pacific which is defined as 170W-120W, 5N-5S and to consider the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in only that area.
The JAMSTEC approach is to look at the Nino 3.4 temperature anomaly just as NOAA does but also use the Ashok formula which is EMI = [SSTA]A-0.5x[SSTA]B-0.5x[SSTA]C where the A anomaly is calculated in the region 165E -140W,10S-10N, B is 110W-70W, 15S-5N, and C is 125E-145E,10S-20N
So there is some overlap but the EMI pays more attention to the waters to the west of Nino 3.4. The Chinese pay more attention to the waters to the East of Nino 3.4
There is more to it than just the indices and U.S. researchers may actually have discovered the problem before the Japanese. Trenberth and Stepaniak at NCAR in 2001 introduced the Trans-Nino Index (TNI) which approaches the problem from the Eastern End of the Tropical Pacific. NOAA is fully aware of all of this as this article shows. But they insist on not using the information for some unexplained reason. One reason provided to me by someone who works for NOAA is that it is too complicated for Americans to understand. Perhaps he is correct.
The graphic below from the above linked article and the excerpt from the discussion in that paper applies to El Nino rather than La Nina but it shows that NOAA is well aware that the location of ENSO SSTA has an impact even if they are not willing to use that information.
Scatterplot of the relationship between the maximum sea surface temperature anomaly (y-axis) and its location in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (x-axis showing longitude). Data is based on a 4,000 year pre-industrial control run of the NOAA GFDL CM2.1 model. Figure courtesy of Andrew Wittenberg and modified by climate.gov.
In general, it shows that the farther east the location of largest SST anomalies is (farther right on the horizontal axis), the stronger the event (higher on the vertical axis). As the location of the biggest anomalies shifts toward the central tropical Pacific, the SST anomalies become weaker. In other words, ENSO strength and ENSO flavors go hand in hand .
This relationship brings us to a rule-of-thumb: Weaker El Niños tend to be closer to the Central Pacific types and stronger El Niños tend to be closer to Eastern Pacific types.
Like all rules-of-thumb, this one will not apply to every case (in the figure above, notice the smaller cluster of weak El Niños that also peak in the eastern Pacific), but it will work for the majority of them.
JAMSTEC provides forecasts of the Nino 3.4 Index that NOAA relies on also their own Modoki Index. They are shown side by side below.
First let’s examine the JAMSTEC Nino 3.4 forecast.
Now we look at the JAMSTEC La Nina Modoki Index forecast
This raises a lot of questions of interpretation. Is JAMSTEC incorrect that this is a Modoki? BTW they are not sure. It is a lot easier to differentiate a Typical El Nino from a El Nino Modoki than a Typical La Nina from a La Nina Modoki. Research is ongoing. This is a situation where we probably will only be able to resolve it after the fact if at all.
Impacts on Walker Circulation
Perhaps the biggest impact of ENSO is the change in the Walker Circulation. What is the Walker Circulation? If is pretty simple. Where the Equator is warm, there is increased evaporation and thus convection and clouds rise. Since these clouds rise, the warm moist air must subside somewhere else usually over cool water or land in the form of precipitation. That is pretty much what the ENSO Cycle is all about. Where clouds are generated and where precipitation falls.
There are many graphics that show this. I came across this one and like it. I am having difficulty finding the source of this graphic. Kurt G. Baldenhofer seems to be the webmaster on that site.I have not gone through his site to determine the ultimate source of the below graphic so I apologize if I am not giving the creator of this graphic proper attribution.
Here is my feeble attempt to translate the German into English.
The color describes the deviation from normal i.e. warm, cool, normal. | |
La Nina: With La Nina conditions, you have strong trade winds in the Pacific Ocean, the warm water is driven towards Southeast Asia. This causes cool water at depth to rise causing the surface of the Ocean off of Peru to be cool. | El Nino: With El Nino warm water flows back towards the East.Thus the water temperature off the coast of Peru rises. The moisture content of the atmosphere rises and precipitation increases. |
La Nina Modoki: With La Nina Modoki, the wind drives the warm water both to the East and West. Thus the Central Pacific cools. | El Nino Modoki With El Nino Modoki, wind blows in from opposite directions. Thus the Central Pacific warms. |
The descriptions in the graphic are incomplete as there are many variations (including Modoki Type I and Type II which we are not getting into this evening) but the main value of the graphics is that you can see that with a La Nina Modoki, the cool anomaly in the Pacific along the Equator is further west than with a Traditional La Nina. This means the Walker Circulation is westerly displaced just as with the most recent El Nino, the Walker Circulation was also shifted to the west. With a Modoki, you may get two Walker Cells rather than one (this is where the graphic may be oversimplifying the situation) and the result may be that a La Nina Modoki may tend to resemble to some extent an El Nino. That really is the key part. It is not sufficient to characterize ENSO Events as either El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral.
Thus we end up with this:
It is not very explicit but I believe the November 20 discussion by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also hints at a Modoki situation rather than a traditional La Nina.
In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are well within neutral bounds. In the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed once again, further dampening chances of La Niña. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been negative since late October (La Niña values are typically positive) but remains neutral. Trade winds are currently close to average. Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show some La Niña-like characteristics.
In conclusion, I am trying to make the point that Asian Meteorological Agencies may be able to make seasonal forecasts for the U.S better than NOAA because they have a better understanding of ENSO and perhaps of the PDO also.
A. Focus on Alaska and CONUS (all U.S. except Hawaii) – Let’s Focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.
First, this graphic provides a good indication of where the moisture is. It is a bit different than just moisture imagery as it is quantitative.
Image credit: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD. More explanation can be found at Atmospheric Rivers (Click to read full Weather Underground Dr. Bob Henson article)
To turn the above into a forecasting tool click here and you will have a dashboard for a short-term forecasting model.
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below.
The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.
U.S. 3 Day to 7 Day Forecasts
Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 3. The Day 6 forecast can be found here.
You can enlarge the below daily (days 3 – 7) weather maps for CONUS only by clicking on Three Day or Four Day or Five Day or Day Six or Day Seven
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. More information is available here.
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Because “Thickness Lines” are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define “Thickness” and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. Remember that 540 relates to sea level.
The graphic below is the Eastern Pacific a 24 hr loop of recent readings. It does a good job of showing what is going on right now. The winds and moisture approaching the West are of most interest.
The graphic below (which is a bit redundant with the above) updates automatically so it most likely will look different by the time you look at it as the tropical weather patterns unlike the patterns north of 30N are generally moving from east to west but right now are moving from west to east. This graphic highlights tropical activity. Unlike the above which shows recent history, the below graphic is a satellite image with the forecast of tropical events superimposed on the satellite image. There is no significant “new” tropical activity that would appear to impact CONUS forecast for the beginning of this week.
We can track tropical storms here. Former Hurricane Otto is no longer being reported on by the NHC but you may be able to to see the remains of it in the graphic above. It may well combine its remaining moisture with the stream of moisture coming in via the split Jet Stream. .
Below is the current water vapor Imagery for North America.
Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream.
First the current situation. Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems. The sub-Jetstream level intensity winds shown by the vectors in this graphic are also very important in understanding the impacts north and south of the Jet Stream which is the higher-speed part of the wind circulation and is shown in gray on this map. In some cases however a Low-Pressure System becomes separated or “cut off” from the Jet Stream. In that case it’s movements may be more difficult to predict until that disturbance is again recaptured by the Jet Stream. This usually is more significant for the lower half of CONUS i.e. further south than the Jet Stream.
Now looking at the 5 Day forecast;
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Putting the Jet Stream into Motion and Looking Forward a Few Days Also
To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.
This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.
When we discuss the jet stream and for other reasons, we often discuss different layers of the atmosphere. These are expressed in terms of the atmospheric pressure above that layer. It is kind of counter-intuitive to me. The below table may help the reader translate air pressure to the usual altitude and temperature one might expect at that level of air pressure. It is just an approximation but useful.
Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on “earth” adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on “earth” to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns. This amazing graphic covers North and South America. It could be included in the Worldwide weather forecast section of this report but it is useful here re understanding the wind circulation patterns.
Four- Week Outlook
I am going to show the three-month DJF Outlook (for reference purposes), the Updated Outlook for the single month of November, the 6 – 10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Maps and the Week 3 – 4 Experimental Outlook. I use “EC” in my discussions although NOAA sometimes uses “EC” (Equal Chances) and sometimes uses “N” (Normal) to pretty much indicate the same thing although “N” may be more definitive.
First – Temperature
Here is the Three-Month DJF Temperature Outlook issued on November 17, 2016:
Here is the Early Temperature Outlook for December Issued on November 17, 2016
6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook Issued Today
8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued Today
Looking further out.
Now – Precipitation
Here is the three-month DJF Precipitation Outlook issued on November 17, 2016 :
And here is the Early Precipitation Outlook for December Issued on November 17, 2016
6 – 10 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today
8 – 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today
Looking further out.
.
As I view these maps (which are very different than the maps produced by the unsupervised computers on Sunday) on Monday November 28 (two of the five update each day and one (the Week 3 – 4 Outlook) updates every Friday, it looks like precipitation for December 4 to December 12 will begin with Alaska mostly dry, California to Missouri dry or EC, and pretty much the rest of CONUS wet which will first evolve into a Northern Tier wet and parts of the Southern Tier dry pattern and then morph into a pattern of mostly EC with a mostly dry Alaska, a wet anomaly centered on Montana and a dry Southeast Quadrant. Again, this is more of an ENSO Neutral Pattern than a La Nina Pattern. When discussing anomalies, “wet” means wetter than usual for this time of the year and “dry” means drier than usual for this time of the year. The graphic shows the level of probability of being different from EC.
Here is the NOAA discussion released today November 28, 2016
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 – 08 2016
THE AVAILABLE MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN ALASKA, WITH TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS COMPRISED OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAST, PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHERE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 12Z GFS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS, WHILE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN CHARTS DEPICT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. MODELS WITH THE HIGHEST 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA HAD HIGHER ANALOG CORRELATIONS, INDICATING A HISTORICAL PREFERENCE FOR THAT PATTERN. THE RESULTING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
THE UPPER LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, EXCEPT THE ALEUTIANS, AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER PROGRESSIVE FLOW ARE FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION, WHILE THE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SOUTH OF THE MAIN STORM TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW MEXICO TO KANSAS. PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND A STRONG JET OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IMPLIES A LOWER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHICH FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS, AND GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 – 12 2016
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD, ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE RAISING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS RAISING HEIGHTS MORE QUICKLY.
PREDICTED RIDGING OVER ALASKA IS LIKELY TO BE CENTERED FURTHER NORTH, CONTINUING TO FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. MEAN TROUGHING, CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST, FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ALSO FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST IN 6-10 DAYS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE, AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS IS PREDICTED TO LESSEN BY WEEK-2, SO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS BUT TEMPERED BY LARGE CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY, LIKELY ROOTED IN SMALLER SCALE VARIABILITY.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 15
Some might find this analysis interesting as the organization which prepares it focuses on the Pacific Ocean and looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of ENSO events.
Analogs to the Outlook.
Now let us take a detailed look at the “Analogs” which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. “Analog” means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 – 14 day Outlook.
Here are today’s analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the Outlook but I have not been regularly analyzing this second set of information. The first set which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set, which I am not using, relates to the correlation of the forecasted outlook 6 – 10 days out with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 – 10 Day Outlook. The second set of analogs may also be useful information but they put the first set of analogs in the discussion with the second set available by a link so I am assuming that the first set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so.
Day | ENSO Phase | PDO | AMO | Other Comments |
Nov 18, 1961 | Neutral | – | + | |
Nov 19, 1961 | Neutral | – | + | |
Nov 7, 1964 | La Nina | – | – | |
Nov 26, 1981 | Neutral | + | – | |
Dec 9, 1992 | Neutral | + | – | |
Dec 10, 1992 | Neutral | + | – | |
Nov 10, 1994 | El Nino | – | – | Probably a Modoki |
Nov 11, 1994 | El Nino | – | – | Probably a Modoki |
Dec 10, 1999 | La Nina | – | N | Following the MegaNino |
Nov 16, 2003 | Neutral | + | + |
(t) = a month where the Ocean Cycle Index has just changed or does change the following month.
One thing that jumped out at me right away was the spread among the analogs from November 7 to December 10 which is 33 days which is as not as tight as last week. I have not calculated the centroid of this distribution which would be the better way to look at things but the midpoint, which is a lot easier to calculate, is about November 23 quite similar to last week. These analogs are centered on 3 days and 4 days ago (November 24 or 25). So the analogs could be considered slightly in advance meaning that we will be getting weather that normally would occur at about this time of year or a couple of days later than usual.
For more information on Analogs see discussion in the GEI Weather Page Glossary.
There are two El Nino Analogs (why are there any?), two La Nina Analogs and six ENSO Neutral Analogs. The phase of the ocean cycles in the analogs point weakly towards all the McCabe Conditions except C(see table below). McCabe Conditions A, B, and D have some similarity to the forecast pattern through December 23 because of all the changes that take place during that period.
The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time. One of the major reasons that I write this weather and climate column is to encourage a more long-term and World view of weather.
McCabe Condition | Main Characteristics |
A | Very Little Drought. Southern Tier and Northern Tier from Dakotas East Wet |
B | More wet than dry but Great Plains Dry |
C | Northern Tier and Mid-Atlantic Drought |
D | Southwest Drought extending to the North and also the Great Lakes |
You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.
Historical Anomaly Analysis
When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.
Recent CONUS Weather
This is provided mainly to see the pattern in the weather that has occurred in recent months. Because it is now November, I have removed the July, August, and September Graphics.
Here is the 30 Days ending November 19, 2016
And the 30 Days ending November 26, 2016
B. Beyond Alaska and CONUS Let’s Look at the World which of Course also includes Alaska and CONUS
Near Term
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left o the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool.
Although I can not display the interactive control panel in my article, I can display any of the graphics it provides so below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for three days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 3 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here
Precipitation
Temperature
Looking Out a Few Months
This is the precipitation forecast from Queensland Australia.
Here is the JAMSTEC three month Temperature Forecast.
And here is the three month JAMSTEC Precipitation Forecast.
And then to get more focus, I extracted and enlarged an image for Europe on the left and CONUS on the right.
There is a short JAMSTEC discussion that relates the seasonal outlook to their El Nino and El Nino Modoki forecasts and this was issued on Tuesday November 22, so here it is:
Nov. 23, 2016 Prediction from 1st Nov., 2016
ENSO forecast:
According to the SINTEX-F prediction, the current La Niña Modoki/La Niña state will continue until spring. [Editor’s Note: They explain what they mean by this being a Modoki rather than a true La Nina in a very long detailed explanation which focuses on the Modoki aspects of this Cool Event. We will discuss that next Monday but the simple explanation is that the cool anomaly is not well connected to the coast of South America]. That state will then start decaying and the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer. The model prediction appears to be consistent so far with the observed evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
Indian Ocean forecast:
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole will keep decaying and disappear in winter. The Ningaloo Nino will appear off the west coast of Australia in late austral summer and persist until late austral fall.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Brazil, Australia, and Mongolia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal winter.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, most parts of southern China, southeastern Africa, southern Europe, and eastern/western U.S. will experience a drier condition during boreal winter, while most parts of Brazil, western Central Africa, and South Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Australia will receive above normal rainfall during austral summer. Northern parts of Japan (including Hokkaido) will be cooler and drier than normal while southern parts of Japan will generally be warmer than normal in winter. However, we note that fluctuating mid- and -high latitude climate in winter may not be captured well by the current model.
Additional forecasts from JAMSTEC including future time periods can be found at this link.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal for this Time of the Year i.e. Anomalies
And when we look at the current Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to ENSO.
Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.
Look at the Western Pacific in Motion.`
Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the November 22, 2016 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
C. Progress of the Cool ENSO Event
Starting with Surface Conditions.
TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC (a good way of viewing data related to the part of the Equator and the waters close to the Equator in the Eastern Pacific where we monitor to determining the current phase of ENSO. It is probably not necessary to follow the discussion below, but here is a link to TAO/TRITON terminology.
And here is the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.
———————————————— | A | B | C | D | E | —————– |
The below table which only looks at the Equator shows the extent of anomalies along the Equator. I had split the table to show warm, neutral, and cool anomalies. The top rows showed El Nino anomalies. When there were no more El Nino anomalies along the Equator, I eliminated those rows. The two rows just below that break point contribute to ENSO Neutral and after another break, the rows are associated with La Nina conditions. I have changed the reference date to May 23, 1016.
Subareas of the Anomaly | Westward Extension | Eastward Extension | Degrees of Coverage | ||||
As of Today | May 23, 2016 | As of Today | May 23 2016 | As of Today | In Nino 3.4 | May 23, 2016 | |
These Rows Show the Extent of ENSO Neutral Impacts on the Equator | |||||||
0.5C or cooler Anomaly* | 160E | 155E | Land | 155W | 105 | 50 | 50 |
0C or cooler Anomaly | 170E | 155W | LAND | Land | 95 | 50 | 60 |
These Rows Show the Extent of the La Nina Impacts on the Equator | |||||||
-0.5C or cooler | 150W | 145W | LAND | Land | 55 | 30 | 50 |
-1C or cooler Anomaly | 120W | 140W | LAND | 105W | 25 | 0 | 35 |
-1.5C or cooler Anomaly | LAND | 135W | LAND | 120W | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I calculate the current value of the ONI index (really the value of NINO 3.4 as the ONI is not reported as a daily value) each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W Nino 3.4 measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions. So as of Monday November 28, in the afternoon working from the November 27 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated. [Although the TAO/TRITON Graphic appears to update once a day, in reality it updates more frequently.]
Anomaly Segment | Estimated Anomaly | |
Last Week | This Week | |
A. 170W to 160W | 0.0 | +0.1 |
B. 160W to 150W | -0.2 | +0.1 |
C. 150W to 140W | -0.8 | -0.2 |
D. 140W to 130W | -0.6 | -0.3 |
E. 130W to 120W | -0.6 | -0.3 |
Total | -2.2 | -0.6 |
Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI | (-2.2)5 = -0.4 | (-0.6)/5 = -0.1) |
From Tropical Tidbits.com
Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies
It is the ocean surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. So we are interested in the actual ocean surface temperatures and the departure from seasonal normal temperatures which is called “departures” or “anomalies”. Since warm water facilitates evaporation which results in cloud convection, the pattern of SST anomalies suggests how the weather pattern east of the anomalies will be different than normal.
In recent weeks I have stopped showing the below graphic which is more focused on the Equator but looks down to 300 meters rather than just being the surface. There has until this week been almost no change from the prior week but over the last month there has been sufficient change to warrant including this graphic this week.
Let us look in more detail at the Subsurface Water Temperatures.
Equatorial Subsurface Analysis
We are now going to change the way we look at a three-dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view and an average of the subsurface heat content to a more detailed view from the surface down.
Current Sub-Surface Conditions. Notice by the date of the graphic (dated November 24, 2016) that the lag in getting this information posted so the current situation may be a bit different than shown although this graphic was updated today so it is more current than usual. The date shown is the midpoint of a five-day period with that date as the center of the five-day period.
And now the pair of graphics that I regularly provide.
The above pair of graphics showing the current situation has an upper and lower graphic. The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters. At different times and today in particular, I have discussed the difference between the actual values and the deviation of the actual values from what is defined as current climatology (which adjusts every ten years) and how both measures are useful but for different purposes.
The bottom half of the graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline) is now more useful as we track the progress of this new Cool Event.
Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.
Although I did not fully discuss the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures which remains relevant. What we have is only the upwelling phase of the series of Kelvin waves last winter.
And now Let us look at the Atmosphere.
Low-Level Wind Anomalies near the Equator
Here are the low-level wind anomalies.
And now the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place.
And Now the Air Pressure which Shows up Mostly in an Index called the SOI.
This index provides an easy way to assess the location of and the relative strength of the Convection (Low Pressure) and the Subsidence (High Pressure) near the Equator. Experience shows that the extent to which the Atmospheric Air Pressure at Tahiti exceeds the Atmospheric Pressure at Darwin Australia when normalized is substantially correlated with the Precipitation Pattern of the entire World.
Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.
Date | Current Reading | 30-Day Average | 90 Day Average |
Nov 22 | +4.64 | -4.76 | +3.71 |
Nov 23 | +0.63 | -4.56 | +3.62 |
Nov 24 | +6.42 | -4.48 | +3.49 |
Nov 25 | +10.11 | -4.08 | +3.46 |
Nov 26 | +9.60 | -3.06 | +3.51 |
Nov 27 | +8.08 | -1.61 | +3.47 |
Nov 28 | +6.61 | -0.29 | +3.37 |
The 30-day average, which is the most widely used measure, as of November 28is reported at -0.29 which is less negative (i.e. less El Nino-ish) than last week. The 90-day average at +3.37 is almost unchanged from last week. Usually but not always the 90 day average changes more slowly than the 30 day average but it depends on what values drop out. The disparity between the two is one reason why we look at both. (Sustained values over +7 are usually associated with La Nina and less than -7 are usually associated with El Nino). To some extent it is the change in the SOI that is of most importance. It had been increasing but may now be stabilizing or going down. That could change but for now the SOI is not signaling a La Nina but ENSO Neutral.
The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource. November has not been particularly favorable for La Nina development and most likely neither will be December in terms of the MJO.The forecasts of the MJO are all over the place and not suggesting a strong Active or Inactive Phase of the MJO any time soon.The MJO being Inactive is more favorable for La Nina than the MJO being Active. But the MJO goes back and forth from being Active, Inactive, strong and weak so it has mostly a short-term impact. It is possible that a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO might give this dying La Nina a little reprieve. .
Lately, the impact has been fairly muted. But the change in the SOI recently and some other changes suggest that we are having an Active Phase of the MJO even if such is not being reported and what we have is not the MJO but something else that is impacting the cool pool in a similar way as an Active MJO would. The forecast for the MJO is updated weekly and can be found here. If the MJO is not in its Active Phase then perhaps some other pattern is impacting the SOI and also shifting the cool pool to the east. We are also having a non-split fairly strong Jet Stream which is also consistent with an Active MJO. So I am calling it a Stealth MJO.
The MJO tends to be more important when the situation is ENSO Neutral and the MJO can start the process of an El Nino getting started. It is less significant re the initiation of a La Nina but is a factor. It is surprising how weak the MJO has been for months. But it may account for what seems like a cycling of the estimate of Nino 3.4 as the cool water is blown first to the west and then to the east. This impacts the upwelling also.
Forecasting the Evolution of ENSO
The below is first the early-month report from CPC/IRI which I call the reading of the tea leaves.in that it is based on a combination of model results and a survey of the views of meteorologists. Recently the early month analysis has been more favorable for a la Nina than the later in the month model-based analysis.I think meteorologists like action so they prefer either El Nino or La Nina to Neutral. But the models are dispassionate about it.
And now we have the more recent fully model-based version .
There is not a lot of difference but the preference for La Nina conditions in NDJ is a bit less than a week earlier when the report was based mainly on a survey of meteorologist. When I see DJF I notice that January is the middle month in the DJF three-month period. Thus it seems that January is probably the last month that will have Nino 3.4 values equal to or under -0.5. When I look at the slightly higher probability for Nino 3.4 to be -0.5 or less as compared to Nino 3.4 to be in the Neutral Range, I am not blown away by the probability that we will be in La Nina condition into 2017..We are now past mid-November so to me the story-line should be the imminent end of the Cool Event rather than upgrading the Status of the Cool Event.
Here is the daily PDF and Spread Corrected version of the NOAA CFSv2 Forecast Model.
The full list of weekly values can be found here.
Forecasts from Other Meteorological Agencies.
Here is the Nino 3.4 report from the Australian BOM (it updates every two weeks)
Discussion
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ends, while central tropical Pacific Ocean warms
The Indian Ocean Dipole has returned to neutral levels, after being in a negative phase since May. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.
In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are well within neutral bounds. In the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed once again, further dampening chances of La Niña. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been negative since late October (La Niña values are typically positive) but remains neutral. Trade winds are currently close to average. Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show some La Niña-like characteristics.
Climate models predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average, but in the ENSO-neutral range, through until the end of the 2016–17 summer. Only one of the eight models surveyed indicates La Niña for the summer months. A La Niña developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral levels as the monsoon trough transitions to the southern hemisphere. This shift changes the wind patterns over the tropical Indian Ocean, breaking down the typical IOD circulation. The strong negative IOD event helped drive Australia’s wettest May–September period in 117 years of record. The July IOD value was equal-strongest for at least 50 years.
We also now have the most recent JAMSTEC November 1 ENSO forecast.
The model continues to show ENSO Neutral for the next two years (after what they call a weak La Nina Modoki ends). But the potential for an El Nino has been taken out of the forecast. The JAMSTEC Discussion has just become available and is shown earlier in this report. They tend to publish their Nino 3.4 forecast and the World Maps for temperature, precipitation and other topics before they publish the ENSO Index discussion.
Indian Ocean IOD (It updates every two weeks)
The IOD Forecast:is indirectly related to ENSO but in a complex way.
Discussion
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has concluded. The weekly index value to 20 November was −0.26 °C. This marks the fourth week the index value has been within neutral values.
IOD events typically decay during spring, and the influence of the IOD on Australian climate is weak during the months December to May. This is because the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean changing wind patterns, which prevents the IOD pattern from being able to form.
However, the continued presence of much warmer than average water to the northwest of Australia may see continued influence on Australia, including enhanced rainfall.
D. Putting it all Together.
According to some of the models, it seems likely to have La Nina conditions or even be declared to have been a full La Nina. But Australia and Japan do not see it that way and are not calling for a True La Nina at this point in time. So NOAA is a bit the Odd Man Out but it is mostly a question of degree and in the end NOAA may turn out to have been correct. NOAA is calling for a borderline La Nina and the others are forecasting a La Nina-ish event that does not quite meet the criteria for being labeled a La Nina and does not last long enough to meet the criteria.
Forecasting Beyond Five Years.
So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS. It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.
E. Relevant Recent Articles and Reports
Weather in the News
Hurricane Otto a late hitter and rare crossed from Atlantic Basin to Eastern Pacific.
More on Otto including Identification Confusion.
From Atlantic to Pacific: a first in hurricane naming
Tropical Storm Otto is the first storm on record to carry the same name while moving from the North Atlantic to the Northeast Pacific or vice versa. In all such prior events, NHC policy was to assign a different name when an identifiable tropical cyclone moved from one basin to another. NHC’s subsequent name-retention policy was adopted more than a decade ago, but Otto is the first storm to put the rule into practice. Under the old rule, five tropical storms or hurricanes–including the most recent, Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (1996)–underwent a name change when moving from Atlantic to Pacific or vice versa. A few other “crossover” tropical cyclones have been recorded, most of them moving from Atlantic to Pacific rather than vice versa. Some of these were no more than a tropical depression in one or the other basin, which meant that only one name was used during the entire life cycle. The most recent of these was Hermine (2010), which formed as an East Pacific tropical depression before entering the western Gulf and striking the northeast coast of Mexico as a tropical storm.
As part of the new naming convention, Otto in the East Pacific has been assigned a different ID than Otto in the Atlantic under the U.S. Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF), even though the storm has the same name and is considered the same cyclone in both basins. This is playing havoc with various online platforms that map and archive tropical cyclones. At the National Hurricane Center’s website, and on our own site, you’ll see a Hurricane Otto in the Atlantic and a Tropical Storm Otto in the Pacific depicted as two separate tropical cyclones. It appears that the two life stages of Otto will be considered separately when calculating storm totals and Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the 2016 Atlantic and East Pacific seasons.
Weather Research in the News
Global Warming in the News
Antarctic Ice Not Shrinking Could it be that the geography impacts how that process works? Antarctica is land surrounded by open water and the Arctic is water surrounded by land?
What the World will look like at 1.5C increase.
Southwest Mega-drought Risk – This article is important and needs to be read carefully.
I posted it sometime back but I have still not had the time to fully digest and analyze this very important report. So I am carrying it forward.
An important issue is the validity of RCP 8.5 as a benchmark. Here is a good article on that. It has page after page of comments so here may be a shorter version with somewhat fewer comments.
I need to really thoroughly review this very important article and that will take some time. But here are some initial thoughts.
I did want to mention that under the McCabe et al analysis, one of the four combinations of ocean phases was a drought phase so that suggested that for approximately 25% of the time the chances of drought were very good. Thus one would have expected a significant drought once a century. So that is not new information.
McCabe et al also calculated a change in the situation due to Warming. That is not new information either.
So although this new analysis is more recent than the older analysis which was just after the PDO and AMO were figured out, to me it is not very different. The main difference is this paper has scenarios for the future. One probably could have developed them from the McCabe et al analysis. And they are talking about 35 year droughts which is not all that different from the droughts we have had once per century. My quick reading of the article did not come across the mention of El Nino. Are they in the analysis? I need to read more.
The authors make things simple with basically 2C, 4C, and 6C scenarios. How the 2C is defined is important. Apparently it is mean warming from 2051 to 2100 compared to 1951 to 2000. I like to use simple approaches so my mind I will think about it as 2075 compared to 1975. There are other papers that use a different way of measuring 2C (and 4C and 6C). Some
go back to 1750 or the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Well if 1975 is the base even if the growth rate is steeper then linear there is still some room to get to 2C. We are about 40 years into the 100 year period used by the authors.
More when I have had a chance to really study this important paper.
The below is the key graphic:
F. Table of Contents for Page II of this Report Which Provides a lot of Background Information on Weather and Climate Science
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)
2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD
3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.
4. Computer Models and Methodologies
5. Reserved for a Future Topic (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)
G. Table of Contents of Contents for Page III of this Report – Global Warming Which Some Call Climate Change.
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming
3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming
4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming
Useful Background Information
With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.
El Ninos | La Ninas | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | |
DJF 1950 | J FM 1951 | -1.4 | – | N | ||||||
T | JJA 1951 | DJF 1952 | 0.9 | – | + | |||||
DJF 1953 | DJF 1954 | 0.8 | – | + | AMJ 1954 | AMJ 1956 | -1.6 | – | + | |
M | MAM 1957 | JJA 1958 | 1.7 | + | – | |||||
M | SON 1958 | JFM 1959 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
M | JJA 1963 | JFM 1964 | 1.2 | – | – | AMJ 1964 | DJF 1965 | -0.8 | – | – |
M | MJJ 1965 | MAM 1966 | 1.8 | – | – | NDJ 1967 | MAM 1968 | -0.8 | – | – |
M | OND 1968 | MJJ 1969 | 1.0 | – | – | |||||
T | JAS 1969 | DJF 1970 | 0.8 | N | – | JJA 1970 | DJF 1972 | -1.3 | – | – |
T | AMJ 1972 | FMA 1973 | 2.0 | – | – | MJJ 1973 | JJA 1974 | -1.9 | – | – |
SON 1974 | FMA 1976 | -1.6 | – | – | ||||||
T | ASO 1976 | JFM 1977 | 0.8 | + | – | |||||
M | ASO 1977 | DJF 1978 | 0.8 | N | – | |||||
M | SON 1979 | JFM 1980 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
T | MAM 1982 | MJJ 1983 | 2.1 | + | – | SON 1984 | MJJ 1985 | -1.1 | + | – |
M | ASO 1986 | JFM 1988 | 1.6 | + | – | AMJ 1988 | AMJ 1989 | -1.8 | – | – |
M | MJJ 1991 | JJA 1992 | 1.6 | + | – | |||||
M | SON 1994 | FMA 1995 | 1.0 | – | – | JAS 1995 | FMA 1996 | -1.0 | + | + |
T | AMJ 1997 | AMJ 1998 | 2.3 | + | + | JJA 1998 | FMA 2001 | -1.6 | – | + |
M | MJJ 2002 | JFM 2003 | 1.3 | + | N | |||||
M | JJA 2004 | MAM 2005 | 0.7 | + | + | |||||
T | ASO 2006 | DJF 2007 | 1.0 | – | + | JAS 2007 | MJJ 2008 | -1.4 | – | + |
M | JJA 2009 | MAM 2010 | 1.3 | N | + | JJA 2010 | MAM 2011 | -1.4 | + | + |
JAS 2011 | FMA 2012 | -0.9 | – | + | ||||||
T | MAM 2015 | NA | 1.0 | + | N |
ONI Recent History
The official reading for Jul/Aug/Sept has now been increased to -0.6.The JAS reading was the first La Nina Value. The Aug/Sept/Oct reading has now been issued and is currently listed as -0.7. So there would now need for there to be three more periods of -0.5 or colder for this to be eligible to be formally recorded as a La Nina. NOAA seems to be determined to make that happen. THEIR FUNDING MAY DEPEND ON THAT.
The full history of the ONI readings can be found here. The MEI index readings can be found here.