Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward continues to decline but remains in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
This index accurately forecast that the economy would be in expansion year-over-year in the first and second quarters of 2021. It is currently forecasting an ever slowing rate of economic growth for the rest of this year and into next.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased while its growth rate dropped.
Read why longer leads are critical.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s recent performance, please see the chart below.
The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)
Review ECRI’s current real-time track record.
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U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. July’s economy’s rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth insignificantly improved and continued in expansion.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. July’s economy’s rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth improved and now is in expansion.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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