Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 325 K to 362 K (consensus 340 K), and the Department of Labor reported 353,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 378,000 (reported last week as 377,750) to 366,500
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 88,245,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 12,007,632, down from last week’s 11,825,467
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 61 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 63 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending August 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 348,000 to 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 366,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 377,750 to 378,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending August 14, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 14 was 2,862,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 2020 when it was 1,770,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 45,000 from 2,820,000 to 2,865,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,901,500, a decrease of 108,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 11,250 from 2,998,750 to 3,010,000.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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