Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 13.6 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 27.3 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 252,369
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,016
- US to recommend COVID vaccine boosters at 8 months [this is not a revised vaccine to combat the variants – just a third shot]
- The Delta variant symptoms to look out for if you are fully vaccinated
- America is flying blind when it comes to the Delta variant
- ‘Tainted’ Blood: Covid Skeptics Request Blood Transfusions From Unvaccinated Donors
- NIH scientists develop faster COVID-19 test
- New rapid test for understanding immunity against COVID-19
- Study Finds Underuse of Dexamethasone in COVID Patients
- There’s growing support within the Fed to announce the tapering of bond purchases in September
- CDC adds 4 destinations to ‘very high’ Covid-19 travel risk list
- ‘We are on fire’: Five U.S. states set new records for Covid cases as hospitalizations rise
- Plus Many More Headlines …
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus1.htm’); ?>
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
US to recommend COVID vaccine boosters at 8 months – AP
U.S. experts are expected to recommend COVID-19 vaccine boosters for all Americans, regardless of age, eight months after they received their second dose of the shot, to ensure lasting protection against the coronavirus as the delta variant spreads across the country.
Federal health officials have been actively looking at whether extra shots for the vaccinated would be needed as early as this fall, reviewing case numbers in the U.S. as well as the situation in other countries such as Israel, where preliminary studies suggest the vaccine’s protection against serious illness dropped among those vaccinated in January.
An announcement on the U.S. booster recommendation was expected as soon as this week, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Doses would only begin to be administered widely once the Food and Drug Administration formally approves the vaccines. That action is expected for the Pfizer shot in the coming weeks.
[editor’s note: Pfizer-BioNTech submitted phase I data to the FDA for approval of a third dose. Also read NIH director says Israeli data builds case for COVID-19 boosters and CDC action heats up debate over vaccine boosters ]
Follow Your Nose to Herd Immunity. – Wall Street Journal
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s latest Covid guidelines have many Americans confused. Vaccinated people are supposed to resume wearing masks, lest they contract and spread the virus. Yet unvaccinated people are still strongly urged to get the shots, which are said to be highly effective. How can both these claims be true?
The answer is that there’s more than one kind of immunity. Internal immunity protects the inside of the body, including the lungs. This occurs by release of antibodies of the Immunoglobulin G type, or IgG, into the blood and production of T-cells. Vaccines injected into our muscles are highly effective at stimulating internal immunity. This largely protects vaccinated people from being overwhelmed by the coronavirus, unless they have an immunodeficiency or are exposed to an unusually large amount of the virus. Vaccination will dramatically reduce your likelihood of serious illness or death if you’re exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
In contrast, mucosal immunity provides the first line of defense by protecting the nose and mouth, and by doing so also reduces spread to others. The mucous membranes secrete a particular form of antibodies of the Immunoglobulin A type, or IgA. But vaccines injected into our muscles—including all the approved inoculations against Covid—are largely ineffective at stimulating the secretion of IgA into our noses that occurs after actual infection with a virus. As a result, vaccinated people can contract a Covid-19 infection confined to the mucous membranes. They may get the sniffles but can spread the virus to others even if they are asymptomatic. That’s why it makes sense for them to wear a mask under some circumstances.
All this has implications for public-health authorities’ determination to achieve herd immunity through vaccination alone. In the Provincetown, Mass., outbreak, which informed the CDC’s recent change in guidelines, viral loads in the nose were “similarly high” in the vaccinated and unvaccinated, suggesting that the vaccine’s efficacy against infection in the nose had fallen to zero with the advent of the Delta variant. That would mean herd immunity through vaccination is impossible.
CDC adds 4 destinations to ‘very high’ Covid-19 travel risk list. – CNN
Turkey and Montenegro are now among the highest-risk destinations for travelers, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s regularly revised travel advisories list.
Travel should be avoided to locations carrying the “Level 4: Covid-19 very high” notice, according to CDC guidance. Anyone who must travel should be fully vaccinated first, the agency advises.
The four destinations added to the Level 4 list on August 16 are:
• Dominica
• Jersey
• Montenegro
• TurkeyThe CDC’s evolving list of travel notices ranges from Level 1 (“low”) to Level 4 (“very high”).
Destinations that fall into the “Covid-19 very high” Level 4 category have had more than 500 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days, according to CDC parameters. The Level 3 category applies to destinations that have had between 100 and 500 cases per 100,000 residents in the past 28 days.
The Delta variant symptoms to look out for if you are fully vaccinated. – NJ.com
Based on information gathered from UC Davis Health, here are some of the most common symptoms that do show up in fully vaccinated people who test positive for the Delta variant of COVID-19:
- Cough
- Fever
- Headache
- Loss of sense of smell
These symptoms do not differ too much from the symptoms fully vaccinated people experience if they are experiencing a case of the original coronavirus strains.
Based on reports from people infected with the coronavirus noted in the Zoe COVID symptom study, the five most common symptoms among fully vaccinated people with the virus are:
- Headache
- Runny nose
- Sneezing
- Sore throat
- Loss of smell
There’s growing support within the Fed to announce the tapering of bond purchases in September. – CNBC
Shifting policy views amid unexpected economic data have opened the door for the Federal Reserve to announce in September a decision to taper its assets purchases and begin the reduction in buying a month or so after.
Interviews with officials along with their public comments show growing support for a faster taper timeline than markets had expected a month ago. Those changing views follow the strong jobs data of the past two months along with higher inflation readings.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed bank Presidents Eric Rosengren, Robert Kaplan and Jim Bullard have publicly called for a September taper. Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic supported beginning the taper sometime between October and December, suggesting he could also favor a September announcement. The group is not known for being hawks, and in fact, some were among those making the earliest calls for historic Fed action to support the economy at the beginning of the pandemic.
The Fed could yet delay the decision to the November meeting if the August jobs data is weak, the delta variant sparks a new round of economic lockdowns or inflation readings ease off. But stronger-than-expected inflation data this past week and forecasts that it could remain high into next year have bolstered support for the earlier taper announcement.
Markets have also shifted expectations, giving the Fed leeway to act sooner. Respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey in July pegged November as the announcement month and January as the beginning of the taper. But a Reuters poll last week found September to be the new consensus.
‘Tainted’ Blood: Covid Skeptics Request Blood Transfusions From Unvaccinated Donors – Kaiser Health
The nation’s roiling tensions over vaccination against covid-19 have spilled into an unexpected arena: lifesaving blood transfusions.
ith nearly 60% of the eligible U.S. population fully vaccinated, most of the nation’s blood supply is now coming from donors who have been inoculated, experts said. That’s led some patients who are skeptical of the shots to demand transfusions only from the unvaccinated, an option blood centers insist is neither medically sound nor operationally feasible.
“We are definitely aware of patients who have refused blood products from vaccinated donors,” said Dr. Julie Katz Karp, who directs the blood bank and transfusion medicine program at Thomas Jefferson University Hospitals in Philadelphia.
Emily Osment, an American Red Cross spokesperson, said her organization has fielded questions from clients worried that vaccinated blood would be “tainted,” capable of transmitting components from the covid vaccines. Red Cross officials said they’ve had to reassure clients that a covid vaccine, which is injected into muscle or the layer of skin below, doesn’t circulate in the blood.
“While the antibodies that are produced by the stimulated immune system in response to vaccination are found throughout the bloodstream, the actual vaccine components are not,” Jessa Merrill, the Red Cross director of biomedical communications, said in an email.
So far, such demands have been rare, industry officials said. Dr. Louis Katz, chief medical officer for ImpactLife, an Iowa-based blood center, said he’s heard from “a small handful” of patients asking for blood from unvaccinated donors. And the resounding answer from centers and hospitals, he added, has been “no.”
“I know of no one who has acceded to such a request, which would be an operational can of worms for a medically unjustifiable request,” Katz wrote in an email.
In practical terms, blood centers have only limited access to donated blood that has not in some way been affected by covid. Based on samples, Katz estimated that as much as 60% to 70% of the blood currently being donated is coming from vaccinated donors. Overall, more than 90% of current donors have either been infected with covid or vaccinated against it, said Dr. Michael Busch, director of the Vitalant Research Institute, who is monitoring antibody levels in samples from the U.S. blood supply.
“Less than 10% of the blood we collect does not have antibodies,” Busch noted.
NIH scientists develop faster COVID-19 test – NIH
Scientists at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have developed a new sample preparation method to detect SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The method bypasses extraction of the virus’ genetic RNA material, simplifying sample purification and potentially reducing test time and cost. The method is the result of a collaboration among researchers at the National Eye Institute (NEI), the NIH Clinical Center (CC), and the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (NIDCR).
Diagnostic testing remains a crucial tool in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard tests for detection of SARS-CoV-2 involve amplifying viral RNA to detectable levels using a technique called quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR). But first, the RNA must be extracted from the sample. Manufacturers of RNA extraction kits have had difficulty keeping up with demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, hindering testing capacity worldwide. With new virus variants emerging, the need for better, faster tests is greater than ever.
A team led by Robert B. Hufnagel, M.D., Ph.D., chief of the NEI Medical Genetics and Ophthalmic Genomic Unit, and Bin Guan, Ph.D., a fellow at the Ophthalmic Genomics Laboratory at NEI, used a chelating agent made by the lab supply company Bio-Rad called Chelex 100 resin to preserve SARS-CoV-2 RNA in samples for detection by RT-qPCR.
“We used nasopharyngeal and saliva samples with various virion concentrations to evaluate whether they could be used for direct RNA detection,” said Guan, the lead author of a report on the technique, which published this week in iScience. “The answer was yes, with markedly high sensitivity. Also, this preparation inactivated the virus, making it safer for lab personnel to handle positive samples.”
Hufnagel’s team made their discovery by testing a variety of chemicals using synthetic and human samples to identify those that could preserve the RNA in samples with minimal degradation while allowing direct detection of the virus by RT-qPCR.
New rapid test for understanding immunity against COVID-19 – News-Medical
Electronics specialist Mantracourt has helped engineer a new rapid test which will tell people whether they have immunity against coronavirus and whether that immunity comes from developing antibodies after infection or the vaccine. The device, which is a UK first, was designed by Attomarker, a spin-out company from the University of Exeter, and is currently in use at their Exeter-based clinic.
Attomarker, a spin-out company from the University of Exeter, has developed a new COVID-19 triple antibody testing device to tell people whether they have antibodies protecting them against COVID-19 and whether those antibodies come from vaccination or a previous infection. The rapid testing machine was developed in collaboration with Exeter-based company Mantracourt who have taken the initial design through to production, standardization and testing.
“We started off by building the device for Attomarker, but it quickly became apparent that there were other areas where we could assist to deliver the project such as machine validation testing,” explained Robert Badcock, managing director at Mantracourt. “We undertook pre-compliance testing and discovered the electronics and communication systems in the device could be improved.
We designed a new power distribution module, new USB components and a USB hub, as well as replacing several of the specified cables in the unit. Overall, we managed to improve the kit while reducing around 60 per cent of the cost and also reduced noise, which is important from an EMC point of view.”
Robert Badcock, Managing Director, Mantracourt
Mantracourt’s agile manufacturing capabilities meant that the company was able to take Attomarker’s design and specifications and refine it thanks to its expertise in electronics and mass-production requirements.
“We took the design concept and helped Attomarker make it more suitable for mass production”, continued Badcock. “Mantracourt is very used to helping our customers find efficiencies and opportunities during the design cycle which means we can quickly start manufacturing. Ultimately, our involvement in this project helped finalize the device and bring it to market much sooner”.
Attomarker’s seven-minute COVID-19 antibody testing device has been launched in Exeter-based clinics and is due to be rolled out across the UK as a national service to those aged 16 and over.
Study Finds Underuse of Dexamethasone in COVID Patients – Medscape
Dexamethasone, now an evidence-based treatment for severe COVID-19, is under-utilized in the United States, a new analysis shows.
“Since dexamethasone is an inexpensive and widely available drug, we were surprised at its potential underuse among people who might have benefited from it,” Dr. Hemalkumar Mehta, with Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, in Baltimore, Maryland, told Reuters Health by email.
“Although the use of dexamethasone increased rapidly, nearly one out of five patients who may have benefited from dexamethasone use did not receive it,” he added.
The study also found that use of dexamethasone and remdesivir, which is recommended in current guidelines, varies across health systems, “suggesting variation in patient case mix, drug access, treatment protocols, and quality of care,” the study team says in Annals of Internal Medicine.
The landscape of treatment for COVID-19 changed rapidly during the pandemic, they note in their paper.
In March 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted emergency use authorization (EUA) for hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), but rescinded it three months later based on emerging evidence of no benefit and potential harm.
The antiviral remdesivir received an EUA in May 2020 and full approval in October 2020 for COVID-19.
Dexamethasone, already approved for a variety of indications, has been shown to reduce COVID-19 deaths among hospitalized patients requiring oxygen therapy alone or mechanical ventilation.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) recommends both remdesivir and dexamethasone as treatments for some adults hospitalized with clinically suspected or laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.
‘We are on fire’: Five U.S. states set new records for Covid cases as hospitalizations rise – CNBC
- Nationwide, less than 11% of all hospital beds are being used by Covid patients.
- In Oregon, it’s 11.4%, Hawaii is at 12.1%, followed by Louisiana at 20.4%, Mississippi at 18.7% and Florida at 28.2%.
- The states with higher vaccination rates are seeing fewer Covid patients take up hospital beds.
- Oregon has fully vaccinated 56.8% of its residents, followed by Hawaii at 54.3%, Florida at 50.3%, Louisiana at 38.3% and Mississippi at 35.8%.
America is flying blind when it comes to the Delta variant – The Guardian
… There is no question the frequency of requiring hospitalization is increasing, as reflected by data from some counties that are tracking breakthroughs on their own and reporting that 10 to 20% of admissions are in vaccinated individuals. But we have no denominator.
Why is this so critically important? For one, the false sense of security transmitted by CDC’s lack of data in the Delta wave likely fosters complacency and lack of protective measures such as masks and distancing. The mission of the CDC to prevent such illness, and the first step is to collect the relevant data. It would be very simple to know the vaccination status of every American with a breakthrough infection admitted to the hospital with Covid-19, along with key demographics such as age, time from vaccination, which vaccine, and co-existing medical conditions. The PCR diagnostic test for each patient has an accompanying cycle threshold (Ct) value, which is an indicator of viral load, and would be important to track. Moreover, the sample of the virus could undergo genomic sequencing to determine whether there has been further evolution of the virus and blood samples for neutralizing antibody levels that could be obtained in as many patients as possible. Contact tracing of these individuals would help determine the true rate of transmission from other vaccines, something that is pure conjecture. Such systematic collection of data would be the foundation for understanding who is at risk for breakthrough infections, determining the current level of effectiveness of vaccines and whether, when, and in whom, booster shots should be recommended. It is remarkable that none of this is getting done for hospitalized patients, who represent an undetermined fraction of the people who are getting quite ill, some requiring monoclonal antibody infusions to pre-empt getting admitted.
This is not by any means the first breakdown of the CDC in managing and communicating about the pandemic. But with billions of dollars allocated to CDC earlier this year for improved Covid-19 surveillance, this represents a blatant failure that is putting millions of vaccinated Americans at unnecessary risk for breakthrough infections and leaving us without a navigational system for the US Delta wave.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
New Zealand Thrown Into National Lockdown Over 1 Assumed Delta Variant Case
Taliban announces ‘amnesty,’ urges women to join government
Biden: Afghan chaos ‘gut-wrenching’ but stands by withdrawal
More than 600 Afghans cram into one U.S. transport flight, as thousands flee Taliban
WHO warns Afghanistan’s collapse could worsen coronavirus crisis
Afghanistan’s first female Paralympian is trapped in Kabul and cannot get to Tokyo
Pentagon Warns of Worsening Terrorist Threat After Taliban Takes Over Afghanistan
Tropical depression drenching earthquake-stricken Haiti
The prime minister of Malaysia, which is seeing its highest case counts of the pandemic, resigned amid public anger.
In the U.K., Moderna’s vaccine has been approved for kids ages 12 to 17, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency announced.
In UK’s 1st wave, 10% of COVID infections were acquired in hospitals
In Southeast Asia, robust immunity found up to 9 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Now, a new study posted to the bioRxiv* preprint server focuses on functional immune memory to SARS-CoV-2, up to nine months in a Southeast Asian cohort, in the absence of re-infection.
France tries to clamp down on growing number of fake vaccine certificates.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Parental opposition to the COVID shot appears to be waning as more kids get infected with the Delta strain.
China’s shipping dominance fuels political tensions. Increased infrastructure investment and regulation may help the US regain some of the economic ground it has lost in competing against China.
The federal government declared a water shortage at Lake Mead, triggering supply cuts to Arizona farmers.
Iin Nevada, proof of vaccination will get you out of an indoor mask mandate at concerts, sports, and other large events.
The Supreme Court Blocks New York’s Eviction Moratorium.
Bell’s Palsy After COVID Vaccines Still Very Rare
The Delta variant is overwhelming U.S. intensive care units. One in five I.C.U.s now has almost every bed occupied.
Federal regulators are investigating the Autopilot system in Tesla’s electric cars after a series of crashes.
As the nation’s “Bible Belt” gets ransacked by COVID, many pastors and churches are staying quiet about vaccination.
Have vaccines, will travel: On the road with a covid entrepreneur. While many businesses in this southwestern Montana “ghost town” reel in tourists with its mining and Wild West vigilante past, one businessman arrived offering a modern product: covid-19 vaccines.
Oregon Continues to Report Record COVID-19 Hospitalizations
Hawaii lieutenant governor warns of lockdown due to unvaccinated
Long COVID Sufferer Says Everything Tastes, Smells of Roadkill
55 Percent of Americans Support Vaccine Requirements to Return to Office. The survey found that most Americans support local mask mandates for schools or indoor public areas, while opposing state efforts to ban such moves.
Over 50 Children in Florida Are Being Hospitalized with COVID Each Day. Data from the CDC showed a total of 5,003 children aged between 0-17 had been admitted to hospital between August 1 and August 13.
Alabama Has Only Two ICU Beds Available As Delta Explodes in State. Dr. Don Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association, said the state has 1,562 staffed ICU beds, but 1,560 patients in need of intensive care.
Trump Hotels Impose COVID-19 Mask Mandates as Republicans Condemn Them. A number of Trump’s properties, including the Trump International Beach Resort in Miami, have issued mask mandates.
Airlines split on whether to mandate Covid shots for employees
The No. 1 reason people want to change careers is better work-life balance.
T-Mobile is looking into a hack of 100 million customers’ data.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
June 2021 Business Inventories Remain Normal For Times Of Economic Expansion
July 2021 Headline Industrial Production Continues To Improve
Headline Retail Sales Slow in July 2021
June 2021 CoreLogic Single-Family Rents Growth Increased More than Five-Fold Year Over Year in June
Re-Evaluating The Sources Of The Recent Productivity Slowdown
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 16 August 2021 Up $1.02 From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
