Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 20.4 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 31.0 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 186,840
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,089
- Who qualifies for a coronavirus booster shot? Why it’s still unclear
- L452R mutations may have triggered the emergence of several COVID-19 variants
- ‘This is a very dangerous combination’: New study says wildfire smoke linked to increased covid cases, deaths
- Why the coronavirus lab leak theory won’t go away
- What do we know about the artemisia plant?
- COVID rules could be ‘catalyst’ for domestic ‘terrorists’
- Can Cannabidiol Help Frontline Healthcare Workers?
- More military personnel deployed to enforce Sydney Covid restrictions as the entire state locks down
- 20% of Americans believe at least one COVID conspiracy
- China’s coronavirus success could see Hong Kong-style subsidized medical care in mainland, health expert says
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Can Cannabidiol Help Frontline Healthcare Workers? – MedPage
Frontline physicians, nurses, and therapists working with COVID-19 patients had fewer emotional exhaustion symptoms when they were treated with cannabidiol (CBD), the BONSAI randomized clinical trial showed.
Scores on the emotional exhaustion subscale of the Maslach Burnout Inventory substantially decreased at days 14, 21, and 28 among 120 healthcare workers randomized to either CBD 300 mg plus standard care or standard care alone, reported José Alexandre Crippa, PhD, of University of São Paulo in Brazil, and co-authors in JAMA Network Open.
Five participants, all in the CBD group, experienced serious adverse events, including four cases of elevated liver enzymes and one case of severe pharmacodermia, with recovery after treatment was discontinued.
“Cannabidiol may act as an effective agent for the reduction of burnout symptoms among a population with important mental health needs worldwide,” Crippa and colleagues wrote. “However, it is necessary to balance the benefits with potential adverse and undesired effects when making decisions regarding the use of this compound.”
The findings were “consistent with a growing number of placebo-controlled studies in both rodents and humans suggesting that CBD lowers stress-provoked negative emotional states including fear, anxiety, depression, and anger,” observed Michael Telch, PhD, of the University of Texas at Austin, who wasn’t involved with the study.
“What accounts for this multi-emotion dampening? One potential explanation is that CBD appears to directly affect multiple brain targets implicated in stress reactivity, which plays a central role in the activation of emotional dysfunction,” Telch told MedPage Today.
Who qualifies for a coronavirus booster shot? Why it’s still unclear. – National Geographic
The FDA’s authorization now allows for an extra dose in “certain immunocompromised individuals, specifically, solid organ transplant recipients or those who are diagnosed with conditions that are considered to have an equivalent level of immunocompromise.” That might include people with certain blood cancers or those taking medications such as rituximab, which deplete B cells—the body’s antibody factories.
But the “devil is in the details,” says Peter Martin, a hematologist and oncologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City. “The definition of immunocompromised is vague,” and people in this population vary based on their condition and how much their immune system is suppressed.
“There are probably some people who will not benefit from any number of additional doses, there are some people who might need extra doses to augment their immune response, and there are some people, such as cancer patients, who were transiently immune suppressed when they received their vaccine and are likely now nearly normal and would clearly benefit from an additional dose,” he said. “There is probably another group of people who are mildly immune compromised but responded to the vaccine and probably don’t really need a vaccine. This group with the transient immune compromise clearly has the most to gain.”
Now that the FDA has made its announcement, Emily Blumberg, director of Transplant Infectious Diseases at Penn Medicine in Philadelphia, hopes for more specific guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meets on August 13 to make its recommendation for whom among the wider group of immunocompromised people should receive a third dose.
“I think that interpretation is going to be very difficult, especially because the levels of evidence vary so widely depending on the population,” Blumberg says.
Alfred Kim, a rheumatologist at the Washington University School of Medicine, also hopes the CDC will clarify the guidance regarding which vaccine brands to use for extra doses. The new authorization only applies to Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, leaving no guidance for immune-compromised people who may have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
[editor’s note: also read Over 1 Million in U.S. Got Third COVID Vaccine Dose Prior to FDA Approval]
L452R mutations may have triggered the emergence of several COVID-19 variants – News-Medical
Most of the recently risen coronavirus variants of interest or concern — delta, kappa, epsilon, iota and lambda — are universally carrying a mutation in amino acid L452 of the Spike protein that helps the virus bind to host cells.
Originally mutation L452R was discovered in early winter patient samples from California, first designated B.1.427 and B.1.429, and now known as the epsilon variant that underwent massive expansion across that state and is associated with many outbreaks.
In some of the samples, the researchers found another L452R-carrying virus variant that emerged more recently than the epsilon It is circulating in California and has shown up in other states states. This variant caused the only recorded case of COVID-19 in apes by infecting a gorilla troop at the San Diego Zoo in early January.
Unlike the epsilon variant with four more mutations in the Spike protein,in that newer variant, (from the lineage B.1.232), the L452R mutation is the only one in the Spike protein that latches the virus onto cells to create a pathway to inject its genetic materials. The Spike proteins are what give the coronavirus its studded, crown-like appearance.
The researchers determined that the L452R mutation alone triggered the emergence of the two California variants.
Additional analyses have shown that a dozen coronavirus lineages carrying L452R mutations have arisen around the world, including the globally expanded delta and delta plus variants that originated in Inda, as well as their cousin variant Kappa. Another variant of concern, lambda, that originated in Peru and Chili, is carrying mutation L452Q. Other mutations in those variants were also acquired but were not as ominpresent as the L452 mutations
A rise in mutational variants, particularly in this part of the virus, is of public health concern, because of the potential that they might make the pandemic coronavirus more infective, more virulent or more able to escape protective antibodies, the scientists conducting the study noted.
The findings seem to suggest that mutations in L452R, in and of themselves, offer significant adaptive value to the pandemic corona virus. From a virus evolution standpoint, positive selection for this mutation somehow became strong only in the past several months. It is not certain why this happened, but it could have occurred as the virus adapts to growing population immunity or the containment measures.
More military personnel deployed to enforce Sydney Covid restrictions as entire state locks down – CNN
Additional Australian military personnel will be deployed to enforce tighter Covid-19 restrictions in the greater Sydney area next week, authorities announced Saturday, as the entire state of New South Wales (NSW) prepares to go under lockdown.
It comes as the country continues to battle the highly infectious Delta coronavirus variant. On Saturday, NSW reported 466 new locally transmitted cases — a record — to take its total number of infections this year to 12,903.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian called it the “most concerning day” of the pandemic, adding the state was “throwing everything at it.”
“This is literally a war,” she said at a news conference, shortly before the state’s deputy premier announced NSW would enter a snap seven-day lockdown starting 5 p.m. Saturday.
Stay at home orders will be applied across the country’s most populous state, with people only permitted to leave home to shop for essentials, receive medical care, outdoor exercise with one other person, and work if residents cannot work from home. Schooling will also be moved back online.
20% of Americans believe at least one COVID conspiracy – Jerusalem Post
A total of 20% of Americans believe at least one coronavirus-related conspiracy theory, a nationwide study in the US has discovered.
The study, which is preprint and has yet to be peer-reviewed, was conducted by Harvard University, Rutgers University, Northwestern University and Northeastern University. A total of 20,669 people were surveyed throughout June and early July throughout all 50 US states.
It asked respondents if they believe any of the following coronavirus falsities:
– Coronavirus vaccines are capable of altering a person’s DNA
– The vaccines contain microchips that allow people to be tracked
– The vaccines contain lung tissue from aborted fetuses
– The vaccines are capable of causing infertilityAll four of these claims have been proven as false.
The survey found that over half of all Americans are unsure about whether or not at least one COVID conspiracy is true or false, and 20% of Americans believe at least one of the false statements.
‘This is a very dangerous combination’: New study says wildfire smoke linked to increased covid cases, deaths – Washington Post
In a new study published on Friday, a team of researchers at Harvard University found evidence that exposure to elevated levels of fine particle pollution found in wildfire smoke may have led to thousands more cases of covid-19 and more deaths among those who tested positive for the coronavirus.
In some counties in California and Washington state hit particularly hard by wildfires last year, the study, published in the journal Science Advances, concluded that nearly 20 percent of the covid-19 cases were linked to elevated levels of wildfire smoke. The researchers also found that an even higher percentage of deaths could be linked to wildfire smoke in certain counties.
“Clearly, we see that, overall, this is a very dangerous combination,” Francesca Dominici, a professor of biostatistics at Harvard and one of the authors of the study, said of the interplay between smoke and covid-19. “It’s a really scary thing as we continue to face these wildfires all around the world.”
Mainland China’s success in combating the coronavirus pandemic increases the likelihood that free public health care, similar to Hong Kong, will be provided for the nation’s 1.4 billion-strong population, says a leading expert on the country’s medical care reform.
“China’s success in containing transmission of the virus last year was largely due to the up-to-the-minute free testing and treatment, the result was very good with an affordable price,” said Li Ling, a professor at the National School of Development at Peking University.
“It was similar to Hong Kong’s public health care, which is virtually free to all individuals and works very well.
“China is still a developing country with a large population, but with our national power today, it is possible to provide free medical care.”
About 95 per cent of mainland China’s population is covered by a public medical insurance programme, with most falling under either the urban or urban-rural resident schemes.
COVID rules could be ‘catalyst’ for domestic ‘terrorists’: US – AlJazeera
The United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Friday warned of a “heightened” domestic threat from violent “extremists” motivated by new COVID-19 restrictions as well as by anti-government ideology being shared online.
“These extremists may seek to exploit the emergence of COVID-19 variants by viewing the potential re-establishment of public health restrictions across the United States as a rationale to conduct attacks,” the DHS bulletin said.
“Pandemic-related stressors have contributed to increased societal strains and tensions, driving several plots by domestic violent extremists, and they may contribute to more violence this year.”
The department said the US “continues to face a diverse and challenging threat environment leading up to and following the 20th Anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks as well religious holidays we assess could serve as a catalyst for acts of targeted violence.”
“These threats include those posed by domestic terrorists, individuals and groups engaged in grievance-based violence, and those inspired or motivated by foreign terrorists and other malign foreign influences.”
The advisory is an update of a previous assessment and is not based on any specific threat information but rather represents the DHS’s analysis of US conditions.
China reverses course again on whether it will cooperate with WHO coronavirus origins probe – Fox
China on Friday reversed course again over whether it would support a second probe into the origins of COVID-19 by the World Health Organization.
The WHO in February said its initial joint report with China into the origins of the pandemic found it “extremely unlikely” the virus came from a lab and advised “future studies.” The organization said later in July that it would correct multiple “unintended errors” discovered in its report, according to The Washington Post.
Vice foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu told reporters on Friday that China opposes “political tracing” and would be abandoning the joint report” that the WHO began in January. “We support scientific tracing,” he said, Agence France-Press (AFP) reported.
“The conclusions and recommendations of WHO and China joint report were recognized by the international community and the scientific community,” he said, according to AFP. “Future global traceability work should and can only be further carried out on the basis of this report, rather than starting a new one.”
China reversed course later on Friday and pledged to participate in COVID-19 origin tracing when Ma said “China’s stance on global origin tracing has been consistent and clear,” according to Chinese state media outlet Xinhua. Ma, however, continued the narrative that dismissing the conclusions of the first report would be disrespectful to global scientists.
Why the coronavirus lab leak theory won’t go away – Politico.eu
It started out as a fringe conspiracy theory touted by Donald Trump. Now the suggestion that the deadly coronavirus was leaked from a laboratory in China is gaining both scientific and political traction.
The latest tinder to ignite the flames of conspiracy came Thursday when it emerged that a top World Health Organization official leading investigations into the origins of the pandemic has described a version of the lab leak hypothesis as a “probable” scenario for how the virus began to spread.
The WHO’s Peter Ben Embarek said a lab worker could have been infected with the virus from a bat while working in the field — raising questions over the conclusions of an official March report that he himself led, stating that a scenario where a laboratory employee was infected while working with bat viruses was “extremely unlikely.”
He’s not the only top official to have opened the door to doubt. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is usually painstaking in his refusal to blame individual countries over their handling of the pandemic, has described a laboratory accident as not an unusual occurrence and accused China of not sharing data from the start of the pandemic.
The WHO has now launched a second phase of its pandemic origins study. As the U.S. continues to pressure the WHO and China to do more to confirm the cause of the virus, the WHO revealed Thursday that China and “a number of other Member States” have written to the organization in protest at its handling of the process. Those complaints have “suggested the origins study has been politicized” and that the global health organization “has acted due to political pressure,” the WHO said.
Meanwhile, the EU’s own Research Commissioner Mariya Gabriel added her name to a group of scientific experts and government representatives calling on China to “reconsider” its decision not to engage in the WHO’s second phase of its investigations.
A probe meant to be based on science is now a political hot potato, casting the researchers involved as arbiters of global perceptions of both China and the pandemic.
What do we know about the artemisia plant? – BBC
The World Health Organization (WHO) is to test a malaria drug on Covid patients, which is derived from the artemisia plant used in Madagascar.
The African island nation attracted a lot of attention last year when it announced it was promoting a drink containing artemisia plant extracts to combat coronavirus.
There’s no evidence so far that this plant can combat Covid-19.
Artesunate is one of three new drugs to be tested on hospitalised Covid patients.
It’s a derivative of artemisinin found in the artemisia plant, used for decades to treat malaria.
The drug will be part of an on-going trial involving researchers in hospitals around the world, looking at treatments for the most seriously ill Covid patients.
Four other drugs that were part of an earlier phase of this trial were found to have little or no effect on hospitalised patients.
The WHO says there is currently no evidence that artemisia-derived products are effective in treating Covid-19.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Overnight Defense: Afghanistan goes from bad to worse
Canadian Government To Mandate Vaccines for Plane, Train, Cruise Passengers
Iran will impose 6-day ‘general lockdown’ over coronavirus. Iranian state media says authorities will impose a six-day-long “general lockdown” in cities across the country, after being hit by what it describes as its fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic
One in 220 estimated to be infected in Wales
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
UC Davis joins with Pfizer for COVID-19 booster vaccine trial. As COVID-19 booster shots begin for those with compromised immune systems, researchers at the UC Davis School of Medicine continue to collect data from clinical trial participants.
Las Vegas hotel that defied coronavirus restrictions loses legal battle
US reports nearly 1 million vaccinations in past day, most since early July
County in Georgia Closes All Schools After COVID Spreads to Students, Staff
Alabama Gov Declares ‘Narrow’ State of Emergency for COVID, No Restrictions
Mississippi seeks doctors, nurses and ventilators as Covid patients pack ICUs
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
Where Schools Have To Follow Mask Mandates
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
L452R mutations may have triggered the emergence of several COVID-19 variants
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