Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 29.4 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 34.6 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 124,234
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 338
- Mayo Clinic says Covid breakthrough risk may be lower with Moderna than Pfizer
- The developer of the AstraZeneca shot says the Delta variant has made herd immunity impossible because vaccinated people can still transmit the virus
- Did The Delta COVID Variant Just Peak?
- How Will the Coronavirus Evolve? [A must read post]
- The Delta Variant Isn’t As Contagious As Chickenpox. But It’s Still Highly Contagious
- It appears J&J, Moderna, and Pfizer vaccines are equal when discussing adverse outcomes
- Ivermectin Study Withdrawn And Is Being Revised Due To Fraudulent Data
- People who received their second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine five or more months ago are more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than people who were fully vaccinated less than five months ago
- Wuhan Lab Worker Bat Infection a Probable COVID Origin Theory
- The Multicultural Consumer: Attitudes, Behaviors, and Shopping in the Pandemic
- Plus Many More Headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
The Multicultural Consumer: Attitudes, Behaviors, and Shopping in the Pandemic – The Conference Board
This week, new data from the US Census Bureau is poised to reveal that people of color accounted for the entirety of America’s population growth over the past decade. For companies, understanding what’s new—and what remains universal—about this increasingly diverse consumer base will be critical to sustaining success over the next generation.
A new report from The Conference Board draws from a nationally representative survey of 2,000 households to examine this question in deep detail. Made possible by a grant from General Mills, The Multicultural Consumer: Attitudes, Behaviors, and Shopping in the Pandemic uncovers a wealth of striking insights:
- All households felt the burden of COVID-19—but specific impacts varied by race and ethnicity. Black and Latino households were the most negatively impacted by pandemic-era labor market disruptions, including salary/hours reductions, job losses, and business closures. This reflects the heavy concentration of these groups in in-person service sectors limited by pandemic restrictions. But disruptions to everyday life were shared equally across all groups—roughly a third of consumers in every ethnic demographic had to cancel or postpone an important event (weddings, vacations, etc.) due to the pandemic.
- Turning to family was key for riding out pandemic hardships. Across all groups, consumers mostly weathered the crisis by hunkering down with their families. But again, distinct patterns emerged: Black and Latino households, for instance, were most likely to support family members financially—47% of Black respondents helped relatives with money in the US, and 39% of Latinos sent remittances abroad. Latinos were also most likely to report moving back in with parents, grandparents, or other family. Asian households, meanwhile, were the most likely to have provided nonfinancial forms of support to relatives, including child and elder care.
- Food was the glue that held many families together as they weathered the COVID-19 storm. 81% of all respondents named food as an item they “enjoyed” or “greatly enjoyed” purchasing—the highest among all categories of spending. Asian and Latino shoppers, in particular, reported that food made them feel connected to their culture, inspiring strong emotions of personal and communal identity. Further tapping into these feel-good values will be key for food brands as they appeal to diverse consumers emerging from the pandemic.
Desire for the American Dream is alive and well—even as definitions diversify. Every ethnic group wanted to experience the “American Dream” of moving up in the world, with home ownership, higher pay, and saving for retirement key touchstones. But other definitions varied by ethnic group, parenthood, and age of children. Asian consumers, for instance, prioritized financial and career advancement, which also means taking care of extended families. Latinos emphasized founding one’s own business more than any other group and, among parents of children 6-12, also led the way in naming “sending my kids to college” as a key marker of success.
Read the full report for more fascinating findings on the shared priorities that continue to tie America’s diverse consumers together—and the distinctions in spending patterns, cultural values, and social responsibilities that brands will need to master to reach the audiences of tomorrow.
The developer of the AstraZeneca shot says the Delta variant has made herd immunity impossible because vaccinated people can still transmit the virus. – Business Insider
The Delta variant has changed the equation for achieving herd immunity, the developer of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has said.
Speaking at a UK parliamentary meeting on Tuesday, Sir Andrew Pollard, a professor of pediatric infection and immunity at the University of Oxford, said that achieving herd immunity is “not a possibility” now that the Delta variant is circulating.
“We know very clearly with coronavirus that this current variant, the Delta variant, will still infect people who have been vaccinated, and that does mean that anyone who’s still unvaccinated, at some point, will meet the virus,” Pollard said.
He said it was unlikely that herd immunity will ever be reached, saying the next variant of the novel coronavirus will be “perhaps even better at transmitting in vaccinated populations.”
Some experts had hoped that herd immunity could be reached with COVID-19, as was the case with measles, which is also highly infectious.
Many countries have achieved herd immunity with measles by vaccinating 95% of the population against it, such as the US, where endemic transmission ended in 2000. That is because once a person is vaccinated against measles, they cannot transmit the virus.
With COVID-19, vaccines still fulfill their primary role: protecting against severe disease. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, vaccinated people who catch the Delta variant are 25 times less likely to have a severe case or die. The overwhelming majority who do catch it will have mild or no symptoms.
But growing evidence suggests that, with the Delta variant, fully vaccinated people can still transmit the virus.
Did The Delta COVID Variant Just Peak? – ZeroHedge
Though the comment received little more than a headline from the newswires, the White House acknowledged earlier on Wednesday that it has started to see COVID cases leveling off in the hardest-hit states.
- WHITE HOUSE SAYS U.S. HAS STARTED TO SEE SOME LEVELING OFF OF COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN STATES SEEING SURGE
To be sure, the drop in cases, which typically portends a decline in hospitalizations and deaths, has arrived just in the nick of time for some hospital systems in Florida and Texas, which have reported seeing a surge in beds occupied by COVID patients. Still, South Carolina recorded the fourth straight daily decline in new cases, while Florida saw cases decline again after the CDC “adjusted” a supposedly “record-breaking” daily tally which was actually an aggregation of the tally (eventually, the number listed was only 50% of the original figure).
Texas also reported a day-over-day decline on Wednesday (~14K cases vs. nearly 17K the day before). Even Arkansas, supposedly the state hardest hit by the latest delta-driven wave of infections, which at the start of this week reportedly had just 8 ICU beds left in the entire state, saw its daily cases drop by nearly half on Wednesday, from 4,851, to 2,664.
The declines beg the question: was the latest IHME projection about the trajectory of the latest delta wave actually on point?
Because according to the projections, Aug. 11 (ie Wednesday) was identified as the peak of the wave according to the projections’ base case.
Meanwhile, the worst case scenario shows the wave cresting later this month. But as the White House acknowledged, it looks like the hardest hit states are already seeing the declines that many experts, including former FDA Director Dr. Scott Gottlieb, had expected.
Use of COVID-19 Vaccines After Reports of Adverse Events Among Adult Recipients of Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna): Update from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, July 2021 – CDC
On July 22, 2021, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices reviewed updated benefit-risk analyses after Janssen and mRNA COVID-19 vaccination and concluded that the benefits outweigh the risks for rare serious adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination. Continued COVID-19 vaccination will prevent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality far exceeding GBS, TTS, and myocarditis cases expected
[editor’s note: It appears J&J, Moderna, and Pfizer vaccines are equal when discussing adverse outcomes]
Expression of Concern: “Meta-analysis of Randomized Trials of Ivermectin to Treat SARS-CoV-2 Infection” – Open Forum Infectious Diseases
On July 6, 2021, Open Forum Infectious Diseases published the article “Meta-analysis of Randomized Trials of Ivermectin to Treat SARS-CoV-2 Infection” by Hill, et al. Subsequently, we and the authors have learned that one of the studies on which this analysis was based has been withdrawn due to fraudulent data. The authors will be submitting a revised version excluding this study, and the currently posted paper will be retracted.
The Delta Variant Isn’t As Contagious As Chickenpox. But It’s Still Highly Contagious – NPR
In a leaked report, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made a surprising claim about the delta variant of the coronavirus: It “is as transmissible as: – Chicken Pox,” the agency wrote in a slideshow presentation leaked to The Washington Post on July 26.
Chickenpox is one of the most contagious viruses known. Each individual can spread the virus to as many as “90% of the people close to that person,” the CDC reports.
Is the delta variant that contagious as well?
The short answer is no, says evolutionary biologist and biostatistician Tom Wenseleers at the University of Leuven in Belgium.
“Yeah, I didn’t find the CDC’s statement entirely accurate,” says Wenseleers, who was one of the first scientists to formally calculate the transmission advantage of the alpha and delta variants over the original versions of SARS-CoV-2.
How Will the Coronavirus Evolve? – New Yorker
Roberto Burioni, a physician and professor at Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, in Milan, has been called the most famous virologist in Italy; he has written about the prospects for a “final” variant, a version of the coronavirus that has reached maximum transmissibility, and which becomes “the dominant strain, experiencing only occasional, minimal variations.” As Burioni sees it, there are three potential futures for the coronavirus. The first—the most optimistic for us—is one in which the virus simply can’t evolve its way around the vaccines. This is not an unlikely possibility. Many viruses—measles, mumps, rubella, polio, smallpox—have never meaningfully circumvented their vaccines, and so far the best of our current jabs have remained remarkably protective against new coronavirus variants, including Delta.
A second possibility is that the virus will partially evade our vaccine-generated immune defenses while paying a price, becoming less infectious or lethal. In order for the coronavirus to hide from our antibodies, it has to change aspects of the key components recognized by our immune systems, including the spike protein; those changes could end up diminishing the protein’s ability to bind to the receptors it needs to infect cells. We can consider, for example, the Beta and Gamma variants, which exhibit some level of immune evasion but haven’t become as infectious as Alpha or Delta. In the nineteen-nineties, H.I.V. experienced such a fate, when it hit upon a mutation known as M184V, which conferred resistance to the antiviral drug lamivudine. On the surface, this was a setback, but doctors soon learned that patients with the M184V variant had lower viral loads, suggesting that the mutation also reduced how efficiently the virus replicated inside the body. It became common for patients with H.I.V. to continue taking lamivudine even after resistance emerged, in part to select for the variant with a lower replication rate.
The third future is the most concerning: the virus could accumulate mutations that allow it to circumvent immunity without suffering a major reduction in transmissibility or lethality. This would require it to open up a new evolutionary space—a citrate moment. Even in this scenario, Burioni told me, we’re in a fortunate position: we can quickly modify our vaccines to confront new variants. At the same time, the manufacturing and distribution challenges facing those variant-specific boosters would be colossal; we’re struggling to fully vaccinate even a quarter of the world’s population with the vaccines we already have.
[editor’s note: I cannot begin to summarize this very interesting post which deserves a full read]
Spread of delta variant ignites covid hot spots in highly vaccinated parts of the U.S., Post analysis finds – Washington Post
Two-thirds of Americans in highly vaccinated counties now live in coronavirus hot spots, according to an analysis by The Washington Post, as outbreaks of the highly transmissible delta variant — once concentrated in poorly vaccinated pockets — ignite in more populated and immunized areas still short of herd immunity.
The Post analysis illustrates how rapidly the state of the pandemic changed in July from a problem for the unvaccinated to a nationwide concern, though life in highly vaccinated states is still safer.
The Post classified the highest top quarter of counties as high vaccination, with at least 54 percent of the population fully vaccinated. The lowest quarter of counties were classified as low vaccination, with fewer than 40 percent of the population fully vaccinated. The CDC identifies hot spots as areas with high and rising caseloads, as compared with areas with moderate or low covid-19 outbreaks.
[editor’s note: so much detail – this deserves a full read]
Breakthrough COVID-19 More Likely Months After Vaccination – Medscape
People who received their second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine five or more months ago are more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than people who were fully vaccinated less than five months ago, new data suggest.
Researchers at an Israeli HMO studied nearly 34,000 fully vaccinated adults who were tested to see if they had a breakthrough case of COVID-19. Overall, 1.8% tested positive.
At all ages, the odds of testing positive were higher when the last vaccine dose was received at least 146 days earlier, the research team reported on medRxiv ahead of peer review. Among patients older than 60, the odds of a positive test were almost three times higher when at least 146 days had passed since the second dose.
Most of the new infections were observed recently, said coauthor Dr. Eugene Merzon of Leumit Health Services in Israel.
“Very few patients had required hospitalization, and it is too early to assess the severity of these new infections in terms of hospital admission, need for mechanical ventilation or mortality,” he added. “We are planning to continue our research.”
Wuhan Lab Worker Bat Infection a Probable COVID Origin Theory—WHO Official – Newsweek
COVID potentially started when a Wuhan laboratory researcher got infected by a bat, according to World Health Organization (WHO) official Peter Embarek.
… Embarek told TV 2 that while investigators were able to get access to laboratories in Wuhan, China, and have their questions answered, “we did not get to look at any documentation at all.”
The WHO official added that while the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) has received a lot of attention in regards to origin theories, another lab, run by the Chinese health authorities, is also worth looking at.
Embarek said he had been told by management there that the lab had changed premises in early December 2019—around the time COVID was first detected. He said it would be “interesting to look at that period and this laboratory” at some point.
Mayo Clinic says Covid breakthrough risk may be lower with Moderna than Pfizer – CNBC
The risk of suffering a breakthrough COVID-19 infection with the delta variant after being fully vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine may be much lower than the risk for those who received the Pfizer vaccine, according to a new Mayo Clinic study that is awaiting a full review.
The study found that in July in Florida, where COVID cases are at an all-time high and the delta variant is prevalent, the risk of a breakthrough case was 60% lower for Moderna recipients as compared to Pfizer recipients.
Similarly, in Minnesota last month, the authors found that the Moderna vaccine (also known as mRNA-1273) was 76% effective at preventing infection, but the Pfizer vaccine (known as BNT162b2) was 42% effective.
“Comparing rates of infection between matched individuals fully vaccinated with mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 across Mayo Clinic Health System sites in multiple states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and Iowa), mRNA-1273 conferred a two-fold risk reduction against breakthrough infection compared to BNT162b2,” the authors wrote in their abstract.
To be sure, the authors found that both vaccines “strongly protect” against severe disease; the difference appears to be more about whether people get infected at all in the first place. The CDC has said the risk of infection is 8x higher in the unvaccinated than the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization or death is 25x higher.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Criminal organizations claiming to have COVID vaccines are going after governments officials in multiple countries — including Italy, France, and Spain — hoping to secure multimillion dollar contracts.
Fires ravaged the Greek island of Evia, fueled by a record-breaking heat wave.
Brazil’s extreme weather could soon make your daily coffee more expensive.
New Zealand plans to start reopening borders early next year
South Australian-developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine shows promise to prevent COVID-19 lung infection
U.S. Urges Citizens to Leave Afghanistan in Second Security Alert This Week
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Cancer Patients See Sustained Response to COVID Vaccine
The F.D.A. is planning to authorize an additional dose of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine for people with weakened immune systems.
California became the first state to require teachers to be vaccinated or to be tested regularly.
The C.D.C. urged pregnant women to get vaccinated, pointing to data that indicated no safety concerns.
Hospitals in Texas are overwhelmed by a surge in Covid patients.
Hundreds more people died during the Pacific Northwest heat wave than the official figures reported, a Times analysis found.
California plans to require solar power and battery storage in new commercial buildings and apartment towers.
CDC rule prohibits cruise ships based outside of United States from returning for 14 days
Senators introduce bipartisan bill to rein in Apple, Google app stores
Truck driver shortage “is about as bad as I’ve ever seen”: US Xpress CEO
As Delta Variant Spreads, Trade Shows Impose Mask Mandates
Service Members Can Request Exemptions to COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate
HHS Becomes Latest Federal Agency to Mandate COVID-19 Vaccines for Workers
Biden Administration Orders ICE Agents Not to Arrest, Deport Victims of Crime
CDC Strongly Recommends COVID Vaccine in Pregnancy
NBC News reports that the FDA will update the emergency use authorizations for Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines on Thursday to allow for a third dose in transplant recipients and other immunocompromised individuals.
HHS dispatched 200 hundred ventilators and 100 other smaller breathing devices to Florida amid record COVID-19 hospitalizations.
The situation is so bad in one Florida county that officials are asking residents to ease up on 911 calls.
Hospitals in Texas are sounding the alarm with over 50 with ICUs already at maximum capacity.
Being fully unvaccinated will cost students at West Virginia Wesleyan College $750 this fall semester.
Most Voters Agree: It’s Not a ‘Real Infrastructure Bill’. A majority of voters agree with a Republican senator’s denunciation of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package that passed the Senate this week.
Hospitals struggle with staff shortages in coronavirus hot spots
DeSantis unveils monoclonal antibody centers in Florida COVID-19 battle
48 Percent of Parents Say Students Should Be Vaccinated Before School
Chicago Health Official Says ‘No Sign of Super Spreader’ After Lollapalooza
One in Every 1,400 People in Florida Hospitalized with COVID Right Now
L.A. City Council Unanimously Passes Vaccine Requirement for Indoor Spaces
The University of Texas at San Antonio opts to start fall classes remotely.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
07 August 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Declines
July 2021 Producer Price Final Demand Inflation Continues To Heat Up
07 August 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Marginally Worsens
What Are COVID-19 Variants And How Can You Stay Safe As They Spread? A Doctor Answers 5 Questions
BREAKING CRUISE NEWS! CARNIVAL VISTA HAS 27 CASES OF COVID AS IT ARRIVES IN ROATAN BELIZE
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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