Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 38.4 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 66.5 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 36,068
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 131
- About Moderna adverse event reports
- New compound inspired by tapeworm drugs shows two-pronged effectiveness against COVID-19
- Top epidemiologist: Delta variant is ‘maybe the most contagious virus’ ever
- ‘Goldilocks virus’: Delta vanquishes all variant rivals as scientists race to understand its tricks
- Serious COVID Cases in Israel Hit 4-month High as New Restrictions Go Into Effect
- CDC: More than 99.99% of fully vaccinated people have not had a severe breakthrough case of Covid-19
- Restrictions on Unvaccinated People See Explosion of Fake Vaccination Cards: Researchers
- COVID-19: Two-Thirds of Democrats Say Proof of Vaccination Should Be Required
- New Biomaterial Vaccines Aim to Ward Off Future Pandemic Threats
- Building an immune system for the planet could prevent the next pandemic
- Plus Many More Headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
About Moderna adverse event reports – Unreported Truths
Covid vaccine maker Moderna received 300,000 reports of side effects after vaccinations over a three-month period following the launch of its shot, according to an internal report from a company that helps Moderna manage the reports.
That figure is far higher than the number of side effect reports about Moderna’s vaccine publicly available in the federal system that tracks such adverse events.
Vaccine manufacturers like Moderna are legally required to forward all side effect reports they receive to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, where they are made public each week.
Run by the Centers for Disease Control and Food & Drug Administration, the VAERS system is crucial to tracking potential problems with vaccines. It helped scientists determine the Covid vaccines may cause heart problems in young adults.
The reason for the gap is not clear. Moderna may simply still be processing the reports, though the number of reports about Moderna’s vaccine in VAERS from the first half of 2021 remained almost flat this week.
Moderna and IQVIA, the company that works with Moderna to handle the reports, did not return emails for comment.
COVID-19: Two-Thirds of Democrats Say Proof of Vaccination Should Be Required – Rasmussen
Politics divides the nation over plans to require proof of COVID-19 vaccination, with Democrats strongly favoring the idea while most other Americans are against it.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 44% of American Adults believe people should be required to show proof they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before going to indoor public places like restaurants, gyms and theaters. Forty-seven percent (47%) are against such a requirement. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Building an immune system for the planet could prevent the next pandemic – Knowable
Restrictions on Unvaccinated People See Explosion of Fake Vaccination Cards: Researchers – Epoch Times
Amid a bevy of COVID-19 vaccine mandates being handed down by governments and businesses, there has been an explosion of fabricated vaccination cards, according to researchers.
“As a segment of the population tries to avoid the new measures, the darknet reacts to the real market and thus demand gives birth to offers,” said Dmitry Galov, a researcher at cybersecurity firm Kaspersky, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, referring to the fake vaccine cards.
Forged vaccine cards that claim to be issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have been proliferating on Amazon, eBay, Etsy, and other online marketplaces, according to reports.
In another example, an Instagram account with the username “vaccinationcards” sells laminated COVID-19 vaccination cards for $25 each. A user on the messaging app, Telegram, offers “COVID-19 Vaccine Cards Certificates,” for as much as $200 apiece. “This is our own way of saving as many people as we possibly can from the poisonous vaccine,” reads the seller’s message, viewed by at least 11,000 app users.
On Twitter, one user with more than 70,000 followers wrote, “My daughter bought 2 fake ID’s online for $50 while in college. Shipped from China. Anyone have the link for vaccine cards?”
A spokesperson for the Department of Justice said the agency has seen an uptick in fake vaccine cards being sold.
Serious COVID Cases in Israel Hit 4-month High as New Restrictions Go Into Effect – Haaretz
Israel counted on Saturday evening the highest number of COVID patients in serious condition since April, Health Ministry data shows, as the country readies to tighten coronavirus restrictions.
As of Saturday evening, there are 324 patients in serious condition, an increase of 50 since midnight. Sixty-one of them are in critical condition, and 48 are on ventilators. Since the pandemic began, 6,516 Israelis have died of the virus.
On Friday, 3,846 Israelis were diagnosed with COVID – 3.79 percent of tests came back positive, a figure consistent with the high figures of the past week.
As of Friday, 5.3 million Israelis have received two doses of the coronavirus vaccine. Since the campaign to give a third dose to seniors above the age of 60 began last week, 412,308 people have received the booster shot.
As the delta variant of the coronavirus continues to spread throughout the country, the coronavirus cabinet approved plans last week to tighten restrictions starting on Sunday. This includes a mask mandate outdoors when 100 people or more are gathered.
It also requires a green passport – which shows that the bearer has been vaccinated, has recovered from COVID or presents a valid negative PCR test – at sports and cultural events, hotels and tourist attractions, gyms, restaurants, coffee shops, dining rooms and conferences. Starting Sunday, only a rapid test, which is valid for 24 hours, will be accepted for unvaccinated people wishing to access these services. Beforehand, a PCR test valid for 72 hours sufficed.
In another two weeks, green passport rules will also apply to children age 12 and under as well. In addition, vaccinated adults caring for children with the coronavirus will be required to go into quarantine.
- The Israeli graphs that prove COVID vaccines are working
- Israel to start using rapid tests as new restrictions require eventgoers to prove immunity
- Israel’s exhausted hospitals fear wave of serious COVID cases
- Israel’s COVID rhetoric turns grim, reflecting real trouble
Health Ministry Director General Prof. Nachman Ash said Thursday that if the rate of coronavirus infection does not slow, a lockdown might have to be imposed this month.
‘Goldilocks virus’: Delta vanquishes all variant rivals as scientists race to understand its tricks – Anchorage Daily News
The variant battle in the United States is over. Delta won.
Since late last year, the country has been overrun by a succession of coronavirus variants, each with its own suite of mutations conferring slightly different viral traits. For much of this year, the alpha variant – officially known as B.1.1.7 and first seen in the United Kingdom – looked like the clear winner, accounting for the majority of cases by April. In second place was iota, B.1.526, first seen in New York City. A few others made the rogue’s gallery of variants: gamma, beta, epsilon.
Then came delta – B.1.617.2. It had spread rapidly in India, but in the United States, it sat there for months, doing little as the alpha advanced. As recently as May 8, delta caused only about 1% of new infections nationally.
Today, it has nearly wiped out all of its rivals. The coronavirus pandemic in America has become a delta pandemic. By the end of July, it accounted for 93.4% of new infections, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The speed with which it dominated the pandemic has left scientists nervous about what the virus will do next. The variant battles of 2021 are part of a longer war, one that is far from over.
Delta is sending thousands of people into hospitals every day and has knocked the Biden administration back on its heels. In a few short weeks, the delta variant changed the calculations for what it will take to end the pandemic.
Epidemiologists had hoped getting 70 or 80% of the population vaccinated, in combination with immunity from natural infections, would bring the virus under control. But a more contagious virus means the vaccination target has to be much higher, perhaps in the range of 90%.
Globally, that could take years. In the United States, the target may be impossible to reach anytime soon given the hardened vaccine resistance in a sizable fraction of the country, the fact that children under 12 remain ineligible and the persistent circulation of disinformation about vaccines and the pandemic.
With so many people unvaccinated, in the United States and around the world, the virus has abundant opportunity not only to spread and sicken large numbers of people, but to mutate further. Some scientists have expressed hope that the virus has reached peak “fitness,” but there is no evidence this is so.
“To see delta just running laps around these other strains is very concerning,” said Benjamin Neuman, a virologist with Texas A&M University. “It’s like ‘Jurassic Park’ the moment you realize the dinosaurs have all got loose again.”
Vaccine prevents COVID-19 from mutating – YouTube
[editor’s note: a biologist reader working in Pharma sent in the link to this YouTube video with the following comments:
- He says the virus can’t mutate if it’s not replicating, which is beside the point.
- Subtle issue is whether a highly specific antibody to 1 specific antigen (1 spike protein) keeps all current mutations from replicating.
- Obviously not, since mutated COVID variants are appearing in people after vaccination. Where did those variants come from? Undoubtedly multiple sources.
- From the unvaccinated? Not all of them. The virus can’t mutate in people who aren’t infected.
- So, the mutations come from infected people. Ok, which ones?>
- From unvaccinated people? Unlikely, since the std strain becomes dominant in those people who control the infection but don’t eradicated the endemic std strain (the usual occurrence).
- From vaccinated people already exposed to the virus? Most likely, since those people have antibody titers to the std spike protein driven to unnaturally high levels. That tends to damp down the very strain that normally out-competes all of the other, ongoing mutations. The most expected result? Selection for non-std strains less compatible with the host.
- Immunology is nuanced & complicated. Let the immune system do it’s job. Only vaccinate the most vulnerable people, and ONLY before they’ve been exposed to the virus.
- Vaccinating people after survival only complicates things further.]
New compound inspired by tapeworm drugs shows two-pronged effectiveness against COVID-19 – News-Medical
A group of medications long prescribed to treat tapeworm has inspired a compound that shows two-pronged effectiveness against COVID-19 in laboratory studies, according to a new publication appearing online in the journal ACS Infectious Disease.
The compound, part of a class of molecules called salicylanilides, was designed in the laboratory of Professor Kim Janda, PhD, the Ely R. Callaway, Jr. Professor of Chemistry and director of the Worm Institute for Research and Medicine at Scripps Research, in La Jolla, CA.
“It has been known for 10 or 15 years that salicylanilides work against certain viruses,” Janda says. “However, they tend to be gut-restricted and can have toxicity issues.”
Janda’s compound overcomes both issues, in mouse and cell-based tests, acting as both an antiviral and an anti-inflammatory drug-like compound, with properties that auger well for its use in pill form.
Salicylanilides were first discovered in Germany in the 1950s and used to address worm infections in cattle. Versions including the drug niclosamide are used in animals and humans today to treat tapeworm. They have also been studied for anti-cancer and antimicrobial properties.
The modified salicylanilide compound that Janda created was one of about 60 that he built years ago for another project. When the SARS-CoV-2 virus became a global pandemic in early 2020, knowing that they may have antiviral properties, he started screening his old collection, first in cells with collaborators from Sorrento Therapeutics and The University of Texas Medical Branch, and later, after seeing promising results, working with Scripps Research immunologist John Teijaro, PhD, who conducted rodent studies.
One compound stood out. Dubbed simply “No. 11,” it differs from the commercial tapeworm medicines in key ways, including its ability to pass beyond the gut and be absorbed into the bloodstream-;and without the worrisome toxicity.
Niclosamide is basically digestive-track restricted, and that makes sense, because that’s where parasites reside. For that reason, simple drug repurposing for a COVID treatment would be counterintuitive, as you want something that is readily bioavailable, yet does not possess the systemic toxicity that niclosamide has.”
Professor Kim Janda, PhD, the Ely R. Callaway, Jr. Professor of Chemistry and Director of the Worm Institute for Research and Medicine at Scripps Research
New Biomaterial Vaccines Aim to Ward Off Future Pandemic Threats – Medscape
Find it. Kill it. This is the simple premise behind new biomaterial-based vaccines that experts are designing to fend off future pathogens, or germs that could threaten human health.
As they plan next-generation vaccines, scientists are banking on the idea that the structure of a future pandemic-scale pathogen will be like the ones they already know about.
The new class of vaccines are being developed to supercharge the immune system to help the body quickly respond to a range of pathogens.
The new biomaterial-based vaccines are also shelf-stable, meaning they wouldn’t have to be refrigerated like some the COVID-19 shots. This is encouraging news for faster vaccine rollouts, and it will help poorer countries that lack refrigeration for supplies.
New biomaterial vaccines tap into the body’s natural immune response, explains Michael Super, PhD, from the Wyss Institute at Harvard University in Boston, who is first author on a new study exploring what the vaccines can do.
Previous research has shown that scientists can create a depository under the skin that acts like a protective lymph node, or a small bean-shaped structure that works as part of the body’s immune system to help fight infection and disease.
[editor’s note: interesting post which deserves a full read]
Top epidemiologist: Delta variant is ‘maybe the most contagious virus’ ever – The Hill
A top epidemiologist is warning that the highly transmissible delta variant of COVID-19 might be one of the most contagious diseases in recent history.
“This is maybe the most contagious virus that we’ve ever seen in living memory,” Larry Brilliant, who worked with the World Health Organization to help eradicate smallpox, said in an interview with CNBC on Friday.
Brilliant, who is the founder and CEO of Pandefense Advisory, said it feels like the world is still dealing with the beginning of the pandemic rather than the end due to the new variant.
Brilliant went on to say that new strains of the coronavirus will develop unless vaccinations increase globally.
“Unless we vaccinate everyone in 200-plus countries, there will still be new variants,” he said.
Brilliant’s remarks come amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. from the delta variant, with unvaccinated people being the hardest hit.
Brilliant encouraged people who are 65 or older to get booster shots in the near future, saying that their weak immune system may cause them to be more vulnerable to the virus.
CDC: More than 99.99% of fully vaccinated people have not had a severe breakthrough case of Covid-19 – CNN
More than 99.99% of people who are fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death, according to a CNN analysis of data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
As of Aug. 2, more than 164 million people in the United States were fully vaccinated against Covid-19, according to the CDC. Fewer than 0.001% of those individuals — 1,507 people — died and fewer than 0.005% — 7,101 people — were hospitalized with Covid-19.
CDC last published data on breakthrough cases through July 26. These latest figures include 938 additional severe breakthrough cases — 862 additional hospitalizations and 244 additional deaths — reported over that seven-day period. The CDC does not provide more detail about the timing of the breakthrough cases.
About three-quarters (74%) of all reported breakthrough cases were among seniors age 65 or older. Of the roughly 1,500 people who died, one in five passed away from something other than Covid-19 even though they had a breakthrough case of the virus, according to the CDC.
Since May, the CDC has focused on investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases among those who have been fully vaccinated.
According to the CDC, this data relies on “passive and voluntary reporting” and is a “snapshot” to “help identify patterns and look for signals among vaccine breakthrough cases.”
“To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in the case demographics or vaccine characteristics among people with reported vaccine breakthrough infections,” according to the CDC.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Taliban Seizes 6th Provincial Capital in Afghanistan, Government Retreats ‘Without Fighting’
China punishes local officials over a growing outbreak fueled by the Delta variant.
South Korea opens its vaccination booking system to all adults after months of delays.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Norwegian Cruise Line Can Ask Florida Passengers for Vaccination Proof, Judge Rules
The delta variant arrived at just the right time to break our spirits
Masks, comfortable clothes likely to linger after pandemic, Post-Schar School polling finds
160 San Francisco Sheriffs’ Deputies Threaten To Resign Due To Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccine
For first time, average pay for supermarket and restaurant workers tops $15 an hour
As cases soar and ICU beds fill in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is facing heat for banning mitigation efforts like masking requirements and vaccine mandates.
“All the beds are taken up by COVID victims also getting ECMO,” said Floridian Susan Walker, who is anxiously searching for a hospital where her unvaccinated husband can receive the extracorporeal life support for his severe COVID-19. [editor’s note: also read On Sunday, approximately 1 in 4 hospital beds in the state had a COVID-19 patient in it.]
Whispers on the Hill suggest Ezekiel Emanuel, a key author of the Affordable Care Act, may be tapped by President Biden to lead the FDA.
Anthony Fauci, MD, chief medical advisor to President Biden, said FDA approval of COVID vaccines — which he hopes will be “within the next few weeks” — would give businesses more leverage to impose mandates.
A California bill would limit protests at vaccination sites. Does it violate the first amendment?
Federal judge suggests ‘gamesmanship’ at play in Biden administration eviction freeze
Survey: Fox News only network to see increase in trust among viewers since February
Dallas schools to defy governor’s order and require masks
Study shows Pfizer booster shot has similar side effects to second dose
Canada reopens border to vaccinated Americans
Children’s hospitals see spike in COVID-19 cases in high-transmission areas
Los Angeles Still Seeing High COVID Cases 3 Weeks After Reinstating Masks
Pandemic Leads to About 9K U.S. Gyms Closing, Consumers Turning to Apps
COVID Breakthrough Cases Worrying, but Vaccine Hesitancy Is Worse: Experts
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Busiest in Decades as COVID Delta Variant Looms. “There are more people here than in the 31 years I’ve been doing this,” Meade County Sheriff Ron Merwin said on Saturday.
Over 40 Percent of Americans to Keep Wearing Masks in Crowds After Pandemic
1/3 of Israel’s Older Population Has Received COVID-19 Booster Shot
The U.S. military will mandate Covid-19 vaccine for troops.
CDC vaccine advisers will discuss Covid-19 booster shots on Friday
New York state Covid-19 hospitalizations increase over 245% in just over a month
Orange County wastewater shows significant increases of Covid-19 virus
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
June 2021 Headline JOLTS Job Openings At Series High
July 2021 Conference Board Employment Index: Strong Job Growth to Continue in Coming Months
How The Pandemic Widened Global Current Account Balances
Forget The American Dream – Millions Of Working Americans Still Can’t Afford Food And Rent
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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