Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 45.5 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 27.9 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 149,788
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 668
- The single biggest mistake of the Biden presidency when it comes to COVID 19 was the CDC’s precipitous and chaotic change in masking guidance back in May
- Delta’s peak is difficult to project, but could come this month
- CDC announces limited, targeted eviction moratorium until early October
- Royal Caribbean Now Says all guests ages 2 and up, vaccinated or unvaccinated are required to provide a negative PCR or antigen test
- A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta May Be Coming
- Lambda Variant Shows Vaccine Resistance
- US Covid-19 cases in children and teens jumped 84% in a week
- How Often Did Kids Develop ‘Long COVID?’
- US Health System Ranks Last Among 11 High-Income Countries
- J&J Covid vaccine recipients can get supplemental Pfizer or Moderna dose in San Francisco
- Strong-Arm Tactics Won’t Get America Vaccinated
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Delta variant upends US politicians’ COVID calculus – AP
President Joe Biden’s administration drew up a strategy to contain one coronavirus strain, then another showed up that’s much more contagious.
This week — a month late — Biden met his goal of 70% of U.S. adults having received at least one COVID-19 shot. Originally conceived as an affirmation of American resiliency to coincide with Independence Day, the belated milestone offered little to celebrate. Driven by the delta variant, new cases are averaging more than 70,000 a day, above the peak last summer when no vaccines were available. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is drawing criticism from experts in the medical and scientific community for its off-and-on masking recommendations.
But the delta variant makes no distinctions when it comes to politics. If Biden’s pandemic response is found wanting, Republican governors opposed to pandemic mandates also face an accounting. They, too, were counting on a backdrop of declining cases. Instead unvaccinated patients are crowding their hospitals.
The Biden administration’s process-driven approach succeeded in delivering more than enough vaccine to protect the country, sufficient to ship 110 million doses overseas. When the president first set his 70% vaccination target on May 4, the U.S. was dispensing around 965,000 first doses per day, a rate more than twice as fast as needed to reach the July 4 goal.
Then things started to happen.
While the White House was aware of public surveys showing swaths of the population unwilling or unmotivated to get a shot, officials didn’t anticipate that nearly 90 million Americans would continue to spurn lifesaving vaccines that offer a pathway back to normalcy. The spread of misinformation about the vaccines enabled a festering fog of doubt that has clung close to the ground in many communities, particularly in Republican-led states.
Yet on May 13, when the CDC largely lifted its mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated adults indoors, topline indicators were still flashing green. The agency said unvaccinated people should keep wearing masks — and get their shots soon. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris celebrated by doffing their masks and strolling in the Rose Garden of the White House. Around the country, an everyday celebration spread to coffee shops, supermarkets, beer gardens and restaurants. People planned weddings and music festivals.
Drowned out in the applause were expert warnings that there was no way to tell who was and who wasn’t vaccinated, and a country restless for an end to the pandemic was essentially being placed on the honor system.
“The single biggest mistake of the Biden presidency when it comes to COVID 19 was the CDC’s precipitous and chaotic change in masking guidance back in May,” said Dr. Leana Wen, a former Baltimore health commissioner and commentator. “It had the direct result of giving people the impression the pandemic was over. It allowed unvaccinated people to have free rein and behave as if they were vaccinated, and therefore we have the surge of the delta variant.”
Strong-Arm Tactics Won’t Get America Vaccinated – MedPage
Now, for my suggestions:
- Offer cash prizes for vaccination. $500, $1,000, even $10,000 to get vaccinated. Current financial incentives, such as the $100 New York City is offering, don’t go far enough. I suspect for LTAC workers, tens of thousands of dollars may not only be cost-effective but cost-saving. This can be offered at the place of work.
- Offer beer, parties, travel, tickets, laptops, and other prizes. And deliver these and vaccines where people are — at workplaces, grocery stores, restaurants, churches, and music venues, in exchange for vaccination.
- Identify and empower local ambassadors. Reach out to church and community leaders. Give them resources without restrictions to encourage vaccination.
- Tie vaccination to binding legislation that we can never reinstitute restrictions again. Pass a bill that says if 70% of the population gets vaccinated, governments cannot institute mask mandates for a 5-year period or businesses cannot be closed if local vaccination rates exceed 75%. Pick the percentages, and times, and make it binding. It’s worth the risk of losing one tool, and like all agreements, renegotiation may be possible if needed.
- Last call for vaccines. Announce that at the end of the month we are going to ship all the vaccines to India, Brazil, and Argentina, and make good on that promise. If you don’t get it now, you can never get it. A deadline can be a powerful incentive.
- Quit while you are ahead. Eventually, the campaign to vaccinate the hesitant will need to end.
The sad truth is that our politics are so poisoned that there may come a point where we are stuck. We absolutely won’t get the vaccination rate any higher. When that point comes, the reality is we have to live with it. The risk of severe illness and hospitalization to a vaccinated person — even with Delta — is still very low. Trials for vaccinating kids are ongoing. Randomized trials for boosters in vulnerable adults can be studied. And after all these efforts, successive waves of coronavirus will still strike, until natural immunity fills in the gaps.
J&J Covid vaccine recipients can get supplemental Pfizer or Moderna dose in San Francisco – CNBC
- J&J recipients can make a special request to get a “supplemental dose” of an mRNA vaccine, city health officials said in a statement to CNBC, declining to call the second shots “boosters.”
- “We have gotten requests based on patients talking to their physicians, and that’s why we are allowing the accommodations,” said Naveena Bobba, deputy director of health at the San Francisco Department of Public Health.
Last-minute Royal Caribbean COVID changes causing possible cancellations – KIRO
A last minute COVID-19 protocol change from Royal Caribbean last Thursday left passengers scrambling to get tested for COVID-19 or be forced to cancel their cruise.
Doug and Sharon Ward, of Sammamish, told KIRO 7 News they received an email from Royal Caribbean with a last minute “protocol update.”
The update said, “All guests ages 2 and up, vaccinated or unvaccinated are required to provide a negative PCR or antigen test. This test must be taken no more than 3 days prior to your sail date.”
Their understanding when they booked the cruise was it was supposed to be a 100% vaccinated cruise.
Unvaccinated Americans Say Vaccines Are Riskier Than COVID-19, Poll Finds – MSN
A large share of unvaccinated Americans say the COVID-19 vaccine poses a greater risk to their health than the virus itself, according to a poll released Tuesday – contradicting broad agreements among scientists about the safety of the vaccines.
The new survey from Yahoo News/YouGov paints an alarming picture of vaccine hesitancy across the country – despite a scientific study finding six months after the first injections in December 2020 that the safety of the vaccines is “remarkable” – as cases rise largely due to the delta variant.
Tuesday’s poll found that 37% of unvaccinated respondents believe the vaccines represent a greater health risk than COVID-19. Nearly 35% of those surveyed say they’re not sure, and only 29% say getting the virus is more risky than getting vaccinated, according to the Yahoo News/YouGov poll, which reached 1,715 U.S. adults between July 13-15. The survey has a margin of error of 2.7%.
[editor’s note: also read Dr. Scott Gottlieb says full approval of Covid vaccines unlikely to persuade hesitant Americans]
CDC announces limited, targeted eviction moratorium until early October – CNN
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday issued a fresh stop on certain evictions Tuesday, saying that evicting people could be detrimental to public health and would interfere with efforts to slow the pandemic.
The new moratorium comes after President Joe Biden and his administration allowed a previous freeze to expire, setting off fury among members of his own party.
The new ban applies to areas of the country with high or substantial transmission of Covid-19 and will last until October 3, according to the announcement.
“In the context of a pandemic, eviction moratoria — like quarantine, isolation, and social distancing — can be an effective public health measure utilized to prevent the spread of communicable disease. Eviction moratoria facilitate self-isolation and self-quarantine by people who become ill or who are at risk of transmitting COVID-19 by keeping people out of congregate settings and in their own homes,” the statement read.
… The resolution will stop short of another nationwide eviction freeze, but instead will be more limited in scope, targeted to places with high Covid spread.
A source familiar with the effort said the announcement would cover 80% of US counties and 90% of the US population.
Biden’s aides had repeatedly insisted he lacked legal authority to renew the existing moratorium, citing a Supreme Court opinion by Justice Brett Kavanaugh from late June that said another extension would require congressional approval.
How Often Did Kids Develop ‘Long COVID?’ – MedPage
Few children reported a lengthy illness from COVID-19, and even fewer reported developing “long COVID,” British researchers found using parent-reported symptom data from a smartphone app.
Less than 5% of children reported COVID-19 symptoms for more than 28 days, and less than 2% reported symptoms for over 56 days, according to Emma Duncan, MD, PhD, of King’s College London, and colleagues.
Of those who developed lengthier, “long COVID”-type illness, the most commonly reported symptoms throughout their entire illness were anosmia, headache, sore throat and fatigue, they wrote in the Lancet Child & Adolescent Health.
“A small number of children do experience long illness with COVID-19, and our study validates the experiences of these children and their families,” Duncan said in a statement.
Notably, the study contained data from September 2020 to January 2021, which preceded the arrival in the U.K. of the more infectious Delta variant. With the Delta variant now the predominant strain in the U.S., reports of more children becoming seriously ill with COVID-19 have started to emerge.
Duncan’s group based their research off parent reports from the COVID Symptom Study, which tracked self-reported symptoms through a smartphone app. In this case, parents and caregivers reported children’s symptoms.
US Health System Ranks Last Among 11 High-Income Countries – Medscape
The US healthcare system ranked last overall among 11 high-income countries in an analysis by the nonprofit Commonwealth Fund, according to a report released today.
The report is the seventh international comparison of countries’ health systems by the Commonwealth Fund since 2004, and the United States has ranked last in every edition, David Blumenthal, MD, president of the Commonwealth Fund, told reporters during a press briefing.
Researchers analyzed survey answers from tens of thousands of patients and physicians in 11 countries. They analyzed performance on 71 measures across five categories — access to care, care process, administrative efficiency, equity, and healthcare outcomes. Administrative data were gathered from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Health Organization (WHO).
Among contributors to the poor showing by the United States is that half (50%) of lower-income US adults and 27% of higher-income US adults say costs keep them from getting needed healthcare.
“In no other country does income inequality so profoundly limit access to care,” Blumenthal said.
In the United Kingdom, only 12% with lower incomes and 7% with higher incomes said costs kept them from care.
In a stark comparison, the researchers found that “a high-income person in the US was more likely to report financial barriers than a low-income person in nearly all the other countries surveyed: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.”
Norway, the Netherlands, and Australia were ranked at the top overall in that order. Rounding out the 11 in overall ranking were (4) the UK, (5) Germany, (6) New Zealand, (7) Sweden, (8) France, (9) Switzerland, (10) Canada, and (11) the United States.
Lambda Variant Shows Vaccine Resistance – Reuters Health Information
The Lambda variant of the coronavirus, first identified in Peru and now spreading in South America, is highly infectious and more resistant to vaccines than the original version of the virus the emerged from Wuhan, China, Japanese researchers have found.
In laboratory experiments, they found that three mutations in Lambda’s spike protein, known as RSYLTPGD246-253N, 260 L452Q and F490S, help it resist neutralization by vaccine-induced antibodies.
Two additional mutations, T76I and L452Q, help make Lambda highly infectious, they found.
In a paper posted on Wednesday on bioRxiv ahead of peer review, the researchers warn that with Lambda being labeled a “Variant of Interest” by the World Health Organization, rather than a “Variant of Concern,” people might not realize it is a serious ongoing threat.
Although it is not clear yet whether this variant is more dangerous than the Delta now threatening populations in many countries, senior researcher Kei Sato of the University of Tokyo told Reuters he believes “Lambda can be a potential threat to the human society.”
Delta’s peak is difficult to project, but could come this month – The Hill
The COVID-19 delta variant surging through the United States could peak later this month, but experts say projections are difficult and much will depend on an unpredictable factor: human behavior.
The U.S. is expected to endure a rough next few weeks no matter what.
The seven-day average for COVID-19 has risen in recent weeks to 85,866 cases per day as of Monday, the highest point since Valentine’s Day, according to data from The New York Times.
The boost in cases per day is higher than last summer’s peak of almost 67,000 cases but much lower than the winter highpoint of nearly 260,000.
A lot of what happens in the next few weeks will depend on the population, which Nicholas Reich, an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, noted is “really hard to predict and really hard to control.”
“This is the sliver of optimism that we have is that the reason it’s hard to predict is because it’s sort of in our control as a society to change the trajectory,” he said. “But it requires everybody being careful and being vigilant and looking out for each other.”
The U.S. in general has followed the United Kingdom in case trends with both the alpha and delta variants of the coronavirus. After skyrocketing cases in June and July, the U.K.’s case count has dropped dramatically, almost halving since its peak in late July.
A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta May Be Coming, Scientists Say – Newsweek
Scientists keep underestimating the coronavirus. In the beginning of the pandemic, they said mutated versions of the virus wouldn’t be much of a problem—until the more-infectious Alpha caused a spike in cases last fall. Then Beta made young people sicker and Gamma reinfected those who’d already recovered from COVID-19. Still, by March, as the winter surge in the U.S. receded, some epidemiologists were cautiously optimistic that the rapid vaccine rollout would soon tame the variants and cause the pandemic to wind down.
Delta has now shattered that optimism. This variant, first identified in India in December, spreads faster than any previous strain of SARS-CoV-2, as the COVID-19 virus is officially named. It is driving up infection rates in every state of the U.S., prompting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to once again recommend universal mask-wearing.
… It’s too soon to say whether Lambda will turn out to be the next big, bad thing that COVID-19 unleashes on us. But it’s a good time to wonder: Just how destructive can these variants get? Will future variants expand their attack from the lungs to the brain, the heart and other organs? Will they take a page from HIV and trick people into thinking they’ve recovered, only to make them sick later? Is there a Doomsday variant out there that shrugs off vaccines, spreads like wildfire and leaves more of its victims much sicker than anything we’ve yet seen?
The odds are not high that we will see such a triple threat, but experts can’t rule it out. Delta has already shown how much worse things can get. Its extreme contagiousness, with room to run freely through the tens of millions of Americans who haven’t been vaccinated and millions more who have no access to vaccines in developing countries, has good odds of turning into something even more troublesome. “The next variant,” says Osterholm, “could be Delta on steroids.”
Caught Off-Guard
It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. Early in the pandemic, most experts closely studying COVID-19 mutations downplayed the notion that variants would cause such serious problems. “They don’t seem to make much of a difference,” said Richard Neher, an evolutionary biologist at Switzerland’s University of Basel, in August last year. “We probably only need to worry about it on a timescale of about five years.” Today he calls Delta and other COVID-19 variants “the pandemic within the pandemic.”
US Covid-19 cases in children and teens jumped 84% in a week, pediatrician group says – CNN
Almost 72,000 children and teens caught Covid-19 last week – a “substantial” increase from a week earlier, the American Academy of Pediatrics reported Tuesday.
The group counted 71,726 new cases from July 22 to 29. That is a “substantial” increase from the nearly 39,000 cases reported a week before, and five times as many kids who were sick at the end of June. The definition of a child varies by state but generally includes those up to age 17 or 18.
After decreases in reported cases over the past couple of months, the July numbers started trending upward again as the highly transmissible Delta variant of the virus became dominant in the country.
“That’s high and considering the fact that we are vaccinated now, what that’s telling us is that unvaccinated people are getting infected in higher numbers because the virus is more infectious with the Delta variant,” said Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, chief of the division of infectious diseases in the Department of Pediatrics at Stanford Medicine and chair of the AAP committee on infectious diseases.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
WHO calls for moratorium on booster vaccine shots through September, citing global disparity
China seals city as its worst virus outbreak in a year grows
South Africa quickens vaccine drive, gets more doses from US
South Korea announced at least two cases of the Delta Plus variant, which is thought to be even more infectious than the Delta variant.
One billion doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine released
UK expanding vaccinations to 16 and 17 year olds
Israel reintroduces some virus restrictions in the hope of avoiding a full lockdown.
Brazil says 20% of its total population is now fully vaccinated against Covid-19
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
60% of Voters Say America Is More Divided – America has become more divided since President Joe Biden was elected, most voters believe, and social media sites like Facebook and Twitter are contributing to that division.
Study finds only 15% of rural health care workers have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Antibody testing of health care workers in three rural counties in eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota showed only 15% of the study participants had antibodies to the novel coronavirus.
The F.D.A. is aiming to complete the approval process for Pfizer’s vaccine by Labor Day.
President Biden called on Cuomo to resign. New York’s State Assembly speaker said he would speed up a separate impeachment inquiry.
The Biden administration imposed a narrower federal eviction moratorium for parts of the country where the coronavirus is surging.
The Bootleg fire in Oregon, the largest in the U.S., is more than 80 percent contained. But it could continue burning until October.
CDC: Delta variant accounts for 93 percent of all infections
Almost 500 COVID Cases Linked to Milwaukee Bucks NBA Gatherings
Florida’s Seven-Day COVID Case Average Spikes 800 Percent in One Month
Florida Covid-19 hospitalizations up 13% from previous peak in July 2020
Barack Obama Scraps Lavish Island Birthday Party Over Delta Variant Surge
Major Dallas Suburb Suggests ‘Virtual Learning’ Again With COVID Spike
At the current pace of vaccinations, it will take until mid-February to get at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine to all eligible Americans, according to a CNN analysis of data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Home Depot Says All Employees Must Mask Up Due to COVID-19
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
Claims That CDC’s PCR Test Can’t Tell Covid From Flu Are Wrong
July 2021 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Remain Well Into Expansion
July 2021 ADP Employment Grew 330,000
Americans’ Optimism Fades In The Face Of Virus Resurgence
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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