Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 53.2 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 15.7 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 29,692
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 144
- Scientists suspect Lambda SARS-CoV-2 variant most dangerous
- The Noble Lies of COVID-19
- FDA’s accelerated drug approval process plagued by missing efficacy data and questionable evidence
- 2 major San Francisco hospitals reported that 233 staff members tested positive for COVID-19
- As coronavirus cases rise rapidly again, the fight against the pandemic is focused on an estimated 93 million people who are unvaccinated
- WHO Urges Action To Suppress Covid Before Deadlier Variants Emerge
- ‘We can’t take another blow’: Some restaurants may not survive renewed mask mandates
- U.S. approval of COVID-19 shots could boost vaccination numbers, Fauci says
- Who Are the Unvaccinated in America? There’s No One Answer
- Biden hits resistance from unions on vaccine requirement
- We Have The First Trillion Dollar Reverse Repo
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Econintersect published two summary posts today summarizing COVID news over the last week:
Scientists suspect Lambda SARS-CoV-2 variant most dangerous – News-Medical
The Lambda variant belongs to the C.37 lineage, which has been newly designated as a VOI on June 14, 2021, by WHO. This variant is predominantly spreading in South American countries that include Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Ecuador. According to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) database, the Lambda variant has been reported in 26 countries worldwide.
The rate of vaccination has been notably high in Chile. A recent study conducted in Chile has shown that around 60% of the population have received at least a single dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Recently, during the spring of 2021, a rapid surge in COVID-19 cases was observed in Chile. This is because the Lambda variant is capable of escaping the immune responses induced via vaccination.
A new study published on the bioRxiv* preprint server used molecular phylogenetic analysis to study the evolutionary trait of the Lambda variant.
In this study, the researchers have revealed that insertion of RSYLTPGD246- 253N mutation in the NTD of the Lambda S protein is associated with the increased virulence. This mutation is responsible for the rapid spread of the Lambda variant in the Southern American countries.
The authors of this study have indicated two of the critical virological features of the Lambda variant, namely, a) resistance to viral-induced immune responses due to the RSYLTPGD246- 253N, L452Q, and F490S mutations and b) enhancement in the rate of transmission due to the T76I and L452Q mutations.
This study revealed that the Lambda S is more resistant to the vaccine-induced antisera compared to the Lambda+N246-253RSYLTPGD S derivative.
Another important aspect of this is that RSYLTPGD246-253N mutation overlaps with a component of the NTD “supersite” indicating that it is the immunodominant site. Hence, mutation of this site has enabled the Lambda variant to escape immune responses elicited by the COVID-19 vaccine.
2 major San Francisco hospitals reported that 233 staff members tested positive for COVID-19 – Yahoo
Hundreds of staffers at two major hospitals in San Francisco have tested positive for coronavirus in July, with most of them being breakthrough cases of the highly infectious Delta variant, The New York Times reported Saturday evening.
The University of California, San Francisco Medical Center told media outlets that 183 of its 35,000 staffers tested positive. Of those infected, 84% were fully vaccinated, and just two vaccinated staff members required hospitalization for their symptoms.
At Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital, at least 50 members out of the total 7,500 hospital staff were infected, with 75-80% of them vaccinated. None of those staffers required hospitalization.
UCSF’s chief medical officer, Dr. Lukejohn Day, told The Times the numbers from his hospital showed just how important and effective vaccinations are.
“What we’re seeing is very much what the data from the vaccines showed us: You can still get COVID, potentially. But if you do get it, it’s not severe at all,” Day said.
Day also told ABC7 News that at least 99% of the cases at UCSF were traced back to community spread, but that hospital officials are still investigating and conducting contact tracing.
He added that most of the cases presented mild to moderate symptoms, and some were completely asymptomatic. He said the cases were spread among doctors, nurses, and ancillary staff.
As coronavirus cases rise rapidly again, the fight against the pandemic is focused on an estimated 93 million people who are unvaccinated. – New York Times
They largely fall into two groups: those who are vehemently opposed to the idea, and a second group that is still deciding, according to surveys. Health officials are making progress in inoculating this second group, but those who are firmly opposed to the vaccines outnumber them by two-to-one. Understanding what might persuade them to change their minds will be crucial to fighting the highly contagious Delta variant.
The Delta variant is now responsible for almost all new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. In counties where vaccination rates are low, cases are rising fast, and deaths are also on the rise. But in a sign of hope, states with the highest number of virus cases also had the highest vaccination rates for the third consecutive week.
This week, the U.S. shifted its strategy as a new C.D.C. report laid out a grim view of the variant. The updates on mask-wearing, vaccines and return to office came fast and furious.
U.S. approval of COVID-19 shots could boost vaccination numbers, Fauci says – Yahoo News
Top U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Friday he hopes regulators as soon as next month could start granting full approval for the COVID-19 vaccines, a move he said could spur unvaccinated Americans to get the shots.
The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna two-dose vaccines and Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose shot are currently being administered under emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Full approval by the FDA could push more Americans to get the COVID-19 vaccine as it might reduce their fears about the safety of the shot and make local officials more comfortable about implementing vaccine mandates, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and chief medical adviser to the White House, said in an interview with Reuters.
In addition, formal FDA approval would give physicians the ability to prescribe a third dose of the vaccine to people with weakened immune systems on an off-label basis, Fauci said.
Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE as well as Moderna Inc have filed with the FDA to ask for full approval for their vaccines. Johnson & Johnson Inc has not yet requested full approval for its COVID-19 shot.
“Given what we’ve been through now and the number of months that have gone by since the (emergency use authorization), I would hope that within the very reasonable period of time in the future we’ll see that. I hope as we get into the middle of August that we’re almost there,” Fauci said.
‘We can’t take another blow’: Some restaurants may not survive renewed mask mandates – Washington Post
A growing number of restaurants, some of which barely survived the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, are raising alarms that the delta variant could finish them off, as state and local governments move to reimpose mask mandates and many workplaces appear poised to halt reopening plans.
“We only get so many months of summer,” said Nya Marshall, owner of Ivy Kitchen and Cocktails in Detroit. “If we experience additional restrictions, social distancing and occupancy restrictions — a person only has so much fight in them. We can’t take another blow.”
The delta variant has created multiple levels of strain on eateries.
It has made many diners more anxious about entering a public space. It has forced waiters and bartenders to revert to their agonizing role as public-health enforcers. And it has forced many restaurants to consider closing indoor dining rooms and relying solely on takeout orders and outdoor dining for revenue at a time when food-price inflation has made their margins very thin.
Who Are the Unvaccinated in America? There’s No One Answer. – New York Times
One segment of people who have avoided shots is vehemently opposed to the idea. But there is a second group, surveys suggest, that is still deciding.
As coronavirus cases rise across the United States, the fight against the pandemic is focused on an estimated 93 million people who are eligible for shots but have chosen not to get them. These are the Americans who are most vulnerable to serious illness from the highly contagious Delta variant and most likely to carry the virus, spreading it further.
It turns out, though, that this is not a single set of Americans, but in many ways two.
In one group are those who say they are adamant in their refusal of the coronavirus vaccines; they include a mix of people but tend to be disproportionately white, rural, evangelical Christian and politically conservative, surveys show.
In the other are those who say they are open to getting a shot but have been putting it off or want to wait and see before making a decision; they are a broad range of people, but tend to be a more diverse and urban group, including many younger people, Black and Latino Americans, and Democrats.
We Have The First Trillion Dollar Reverse Repo – ZeroHedge
It’s official: at exactly 1:15pm today, the NY Fed reported that for the first time ever, 86 counterparties parked over $1 trillion in reserves at the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility for overnight ‘safekeeping’ and collecting a nice, fat yield of 0.05% – representing hundreds of millions in absolutely free money as these are reserves that the Fed has previously handed out to banks – for free – who then turned around and handed it right back to the Fed where it collected a small but nominal interest.
Of course, it is month-end (if not quarter-end) so we do get some window-dressing but even without it, it’s only matter of time before we got consistent $1 trillion prints… which then become $2 trillion and so on.
In fact, the question of how big the Fed’s reverse repo facility – which as explained previously is just how the Fed recycles all its massive reserves which it keeps injecting into the financial system (if not economy) at a pace of $120 billion per month – is one we discussed yesterday, and highlighted a calculation by Curvature’s repo guru Scott Skyrm who made the following observations:
During the month of April, RRP volume increased by $49 billion. $296 billion during the month of May, $362 billion in June, and $124 billion in July. If RRP volume continues around the same pace, say $200 billion a month, RRP volume will reach $2 trillion by the end of the year.
Looking at the trendline, it puts RRP volume at $2.5 trillion by the end of the year. However, the RRP volume at the end of the year will be a far larger number due to year-end window dressing, meaning it will likely approach if not surpass $3 trillion on Dec 31, 2021.
WHO Urges Action To Suppress Covid Before Deadlier Variants Emerge – NDTV
The Delta variant of Covid-19 is a warning to the world to suppress the virus quickly before it mutates again into something even worse, the WHO said Friday.
The highly-transmissible variant, first detected in India, has now surfaced in 132 countries and territories, the World Health Organization said.
“Delta is a warning: it’s a warning that the virus is evolving but it is also a call to action that we need to move now before more dangerous variants emerge,” the WHO’s emergencies director Michael Ryan told a press conference.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus added: “So far, four variants of concern have emerged — and there will be more as long as the virus continues to spread.”
Tedros said that on average, infections increased by 80 percent over the past four weeks in five of the six WHO regions.
Though Delta has shaken many countries, Ryan said proven measures to bring transmission under control still worked — notably physical distancing, wearing masks, hand hygiene and avoiding long periods indoors in poorly ventilated, busy places.
Biden hits resistance from unions on vaccine requirement – The Hill
Influential public sector unions are pushing back on a new vaccination requirement for federal workers in a rare split with the Biden administration.
President Biden‘s latest vaccine push, announced Thursday, requires federal employees to attest that they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or be subject to masking, social distancing and weekly testing.
While labor groups representing government employees have urged their members to get vaccinated, most of the leading public sector unions either oppose the vaccine requirement or say it must first be negotiated.
Groups representing educators, postal workers, law enforcement officers, Treasury Department personnel and other government employees expressed unease about the vaccine requirement this week. Only a few public sector unions outright endorsed the measure.
“We expect that the particulars of any changes to working conditions, including those related to COVID-19 vaccines and associated protocols, be properly negotiated with our bargaining units prior to implementation,” Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents nearly 700,000 workers, said in a statement.
Larry Cosme, president of the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association, said requiring vaccinations “is not the American way and is a clear civil rights violation no matter how proponents may seek to justify it.”
The Noble Lies of COVID-19 – Slate
Do we want public health officials to report facts and uncertainties transparently? Or do we want them to shape information to influence the public to take specific actions?
In March 2020, as the pandemic began, Anthony Fauci, the chief medical adviser to the president of the United States, explained in a 60 Minutes interview that he felt community use of masks was unnecessary. A few months later, he argued that his statements were not meant to imply that he felt the data to justify the use of cloth masks was insufficient. Rather, he said, had he endorsed mask wearing (of any kind), mass panic would ensue and lead to a surgical and N95 mask shortage among health care workers, who needed the masks more. Yet, emails from a Freedom of Information Act request revealed that Fauci privately gave the same advice—against mask use—suggesting it was not merely his outward stance to the broader public.
… Later in 2020, Fauci participated in a second noble lie. In December, he explained in a phone interview with then-New York Times reporter Donald McNeil that he had been moving the target estimate for herd immunity based in part on emerging studies. But he also said:
When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent. Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, “I can nudge this up a bit,” so I went to 80, 85.
In his own words, he “nudged” his target range for herd immunity to promote vaccine uptake
[editor’s note: IMO, government fudging of COVID information leads to distrust. This post deserves a full read. Also read Imagine If They Hadn’t Lied To Us For The Last 18 Months]
FDA’s accelerated drug approval process plagued by missing efficacy data and questionable evidence – News-Medical
Since the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) established its accelerated approval pathway for drugs in 1992, nearly half (112) of the 253 drugs authorized have not been confirmed as clinically effective, an investigation by The BMJ has found.
Elisabeth Mahase, clinical reporter at The BMJ, carried out an in depth analysis of FDA data up to 31 December 2020 and found that of these 112 drugs approved in the last 28 years a fifth (24) have been on the market for more than five years and some have been on the market for more than two decades – often with a hefty price tag.
The accelerated pathway allows drugs onto the market before efficacy has been proven, she explains. But as part of this approval, the manufacturer must conduct post-approval studies—known as phase IV confirmatory trials—to “verify the anticipated clinical benefit.” If these trials show no benefit, the drug’s approval can be cancelled.
But further analysis of FDA data revealed that only 16 drugs approved through the pathway have ever been withdrawn. Most of these were shown to lack efficacy, but in some cases the confirmatory trials were never done.
For example, Celecoxib (Celebrex), which was given accelerated approval in 1999 for the treatment of familial adenomatous polyposis (a genetic disorder that carries a high risk of bowel cancer), was on the market for 12 years before the FDA finally asked Pfizer to voluntarily withdraw it for this indication due to the efficacy trials never being done.
The BMJ asked the manufacturers of 24 treatments that have been on the market for more than five years whether they had conducted phase IV trials. Six drugs had been withdrawn, approved, or postponed.
Out of the remaining 18 drugs, just one third of manufacturers (6/18) provided information on a relevant trial. And of these only four had started to recruit patients, while two companies said they were still in discussion with the FDA over the final study design.
“Despite the pathway’s good intentions to accelerate ‘the availability of drugs that treat serious diseases’ experts are concerned that it is now being exploited – to the detriment of patients, who may be prescribed a drug that offers little benefit and possible harm, and to taxpayers,” writes Mahase.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Demonstrations against France’s vaccine pass surge for a third weekend, even as cases rise.
Brisbane, Australia’s third-largest city, joins Sydney in lockdown
Police bust swingers’ party in Hamburg over coronavirus rules
An analysis by British academics, published by the UK Government’s official scientific advisory group, says that they believe it is “almost certain” that a SARS-Cov-2 variant will emerge that “leads to current vaccine failure.” SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes Covid-19.
Endangered Sumatran tigers recovering from COVID in Jakarta zoo
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Gov. Greg Abbott bars mandates for vaccinations and masks in Texas
US vaccination rates are rising, even in least-vaccinated Southern states
Florida breaks record with more than 21,000 new COVID cases.
Biden rips states for sitting on billions in rental aid as he lets eviction ban end.
Walt Disney, Walmart Mandates COVID-19 Vaccine for US Employees, Alters Mask Policy
You’re going to be asked to prove your vaccination status. Here’s how to do it.
Border Patrol union official warns COVID-positive migrants being released into US ‘day in, day out’
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
August 2021 Economic Forecast – The Economy Softens Marginally
Analysis Of Certain Proposals In The Presidents 2022 Budget
Stepping Up To Meet Low-Income Countries Pandemic Recovery Needs
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 01August 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 01August 2021
Policy Errors Have Consequences
Where U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths Are Surging
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
Influential public sector unions are pushing back on a new vaccination requirement for federal workers in a rare split with the Biden administration.
President Biden‘s latest vaccine push, announced Thursday, requires federal employees to attest that they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or be subject to masking, social distancing and weekly testing.
While labor groups representing government employees have urged their members to get vaccinated, most of the leading public sector unions either oppose the vaccine requirement or say it must first be negotiated.
Groups representing educators, postal workers, law enforcement officers, Treasury Department personnel and other government employees expressed unease about the vaccine requirement this week. Only a few public sector unions outright endorsed the measure.
“We expect that the particulars of any changes to working conditions, including those related to COVID-19 vaccines and associated protocols, be properly negotiated with our bargaining units prior to implementation,” Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents nearly 700,000 workers, said in a statement.
Larry Cosme, president of the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association, said requiring vaccinations “is not the American way and is a clear civil rights violation no matter how proponents may seek to justify it.”
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