Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 366 K to 400 K (consensus 390 K), and the Department of Labor reported 400,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 386,500 (reported last week as 385,250) to 394,500
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 86,733,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 13,156,252, up from last week’s 12,573,849
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 72 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 73 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending July 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 400,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 5,000 from 419,000 to 424,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 385,250 to 386,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending July 17, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 17 was 3,269,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 26,000 from 3,236,000 to 3,262,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,290,750, a decrease of 53,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 6,500 from 3,338,000 to 3,344,500.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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