Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 61.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.6 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 88,696
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 273
• Can Gargling Protect School Kids From COVID?
• What Is Ivermectin? The Anti-Parasitic Drug Investigated As a COVID Treatment
• Majority Of Hospitalized Covid Patients In UK Only Tested Positive After Admission
• Coronavirus: Israel registers over 2,000 new cases
• CDC study on efficacy of mRNA vaccines against symptomatic COVID-19
• ‘We are now in crisis mode’: Mayor of Florida county home to Disney World sounds alarm on surging Covid cases
• Hundreds of San Francisco bars to require vaccination, negative Covid test to drink indoors
• U.S. warns against travel to Israel, Portugal and Spain as delta fuels outbreaks
• Africa wants to produce a coronavirus vaccine — and Big Pharma’s not happy
• Coronavirus: Germany plans new COVID-19 testing rules for travelers
• ‘Wobbling’ moon will cause devastating worldwide flooding in 2030s, Nasa warns
• Plus loads of additional headlines

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.

source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.

Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed

Can Gargling Protect School Kids From COVID? – MedPage

Underused interventions may help slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 when schools reopen

… Gargles have been used for thousands of years dating back to the ancient Romans, Egyptians, and Chinese. Modern gargle science, especially with the use of alcohols, was pulled forward with the discovery of microbes by Antonie van Leeuwenhoek and later 19th century interventions of surgeon Joseph Lister. In Asia, there exists a more developed culture around gargling and its salubrious effects. Early in this millennium a group of Japanese doctors termed “The Great Cold Investigators” began to examine the influence of gargling on upper respiratory tract infections and influenza-like illnesses. What they and other investigators found is significant. A series of randomized controlled trials support the notion that gargling with interventions like water, green tea, and dilute povidone-iodine (PVI) may indeed reduce the incidence of these illnesses. Interestingly, the act of gargling water may reduce oropharyngeal proteases, which are critical to viral infection, and the chlorine present in tap water may be of sufficient concentration to inactivate viruses. Oral gargles do not represent a new frontier in children either. They have been used to prevent and treat dental caries and recalcitrant biofilms. In one landmark study conducted in Japan, middle school children from Yamagata City who routinely gargle with dilute PVI for 3 months during the winter reported less absenteeism secondary to the common cold and influenza.

The amount of scientific information generated during the COVID-19 pandemic has been extraordinary. Gargle science has certainly benefitted, as scientists and clinicians desperately looked for ways to augment infection control mechanisms. Numerous in-vitro reports have highlighted the efficacy of gargle active pharmaceutical ingredients like PVI, chlorhexidine, essential oils, alcohols, and hydrogen peroxide against SARS-CoV-2. The difference this time is that these studies carried over into in-vivo, smaller scale clinical trials.

Of all the studied active pharmaceutical ingredients, perhaps the best data has been generated with dilute PVI. This is a broad-spectrum microbiocide with years of data supporting its ability to decontaminate human tissues and kill contagions capable of pandemic spread. It is safe, makes the World Health Organization list of essential medicines, and has not been implicated in antimicrobial resistance. Importantly, its use is not known to alter healthy, supportive populations of the microbiome. Independent clinical trials in the setting of active COVID-19 have shown that administration of dilute PVI decreases viral RNA quantification, decreases infectious viral titers, decreases active virus in whole mouth fluid and respiratory droplets, speeds viral clearance, and protects against infection.

From the outset of this pandemic, the idea of oral rinses with safe and effective antiseptics was well-founded but lacked supportive data. Given the existence of these expanding reports to better inform, the evidence is supportive that use of dilute oral antiseptics may be a safe way to reduce viral transmission. The relatively small-scale of gargle-based clinical trials leaves them vulnerable to the criticism of being poorly performed and underpowered. While large-scale randomized controlled trials are certainly lacking, there is still much to be gleaned from other types and levels of evidence, especially when backed by millennia of favorable experience and implemented for clinical necessity during a pandemic. The low-cost, safety, and preventative practice of gargling or oral rinsing is also consistent with the precautionary principle and the oath of Hippocrates (do no harm or injustice!) making it perhaps an ideal intervention for our vulnerable children when they return to school, especially in combination with other public health measures. It may strike the right balance between doing something and doing nothing, between showing that we are still thinking, evolving, and considering rather than falling back into the same reactive patterns that ultimately led to school closings.

‘Wobbling’ moon will cause devastating worldwide flooding in 2030s, Nasa warns – The Telegraph

The world faces an onslaught of coastal flooding starting in the mid-2030s due to a “wobble” in the moon’s orbit, Nasa has warned.

Numbers of floods could quadruple as the gravitational effects of the lunar cycle combine with climate change to produce “a decade of dramatic increases” in water disasters.

The space agency said coastal cities would experience “rapidly increasing high-tide floods” and they would occur in “clusters” lasting a month or longer.

It said the main cause was a “regular wobble” in the moon’s orbit, which was first recorded in 1728.

Nasa said: “What’s new is how one of the wobble’s effects on the moon’s gravitational pull – the main cause of Earth’s tides – will combine with rising sea levels resulting from the planet’s warming.”

The wobble in the moon’s orbit takes 18.6 years to complete.

For half of that time, regular daily tides on Earth are suppressed, meaning high tides are lower than normal, and low tides are higher than normal.

During the other half of the cycle tides are amplified, meaning high tides get even higher, and low tides get even lower. As global sea levels rise, the amplification effect will be increased.

‘We are now in crisis mode’: Mayor of Florida county home to Disney World sounds alarm on surging Covid cases – CNN

The mayor of the Florida county that’s home to Disney World and Universal Studios is sounding the alarm on a spike of Covid-19 cases in the area, saying the county is now in “crisis mode” as it grapples with its worsening infection rate.

“These numbers are extraordinary. We are seeing nearly 1,000 new cases in Orange County daily. Those are the numbers we saw at the highest peak last year,” Mayor Jerry Demings, a Democrat, said Monday during a news conference. “So a thousand a day is extraordinary. We are now in crisis mode.”

Urging the county’s residents to get vaccinated, Demings added: “We, as a community, need to work together to slow the spread.”

“Residents are still getting vaccinated, but at a slow pace. We need to move the needle faster. 61.59% of Orange County residents ages 12 and above have had at least one shot of the vaccine,” he said.

Travelers walk past a sign advertising Walt Disney World at Orlando International Airport as the July Fourth holiday weekend begins, on July 2, 2021.

The comments from the mayor come as Florida is seeing a surge in coronavirus cases, with every county in the state listed as having “high” levels of community transmission, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Hundreds of San Francisco bars to require vaccination, negative Covid test to drink indoors – NBC

Hundreds of bars in San Francisco will begin requiring proof of vaccination or negative Covid-19 tests from customers who want to remain inside the businesses while they drink, an industry group said Monday.

The measure, which was prompted by a recent increase in cases among fully vaccinated bar workers, will go into effect Thursday, the San Francisco Bar Owner Alliance said in a statement.

Vaccination cards or test results from within 72 hours will not be required from customers sitting outside.

“We believe we are obligated to protect our workers and their families and to offer safe space for customers to relax and socialize,” the statement said.

Coronavirus: Germany plans new COVID-19 testing rules for travelers – DW

German Health Minister Jens Spahn is planning compulsory coronavirus tests for travelers entering the country, regardless of where they travel from, Funke Media Group reported on Tuesday.

The ministry is aiming for “an expansion of test requirements upon entry as quickly as possible,” according to a document seen by the media group. The goal is to curb the recent rapid rise in infections, especially with the highly contagious delta variant.

Currently, air passengers and people entering from high-risk areas are obliged to provide a negative test or proof that they have been fully vaccinated or have recovered from an infection.

Compulsory testing already in the works

The new rule would set a blanket requirement, not just limited to high-risk areas or certain types of transport, the report said. But it is unclear whether the change would apply to fully vaccinated people.

“The coordination in the government on this is underway,” a Health Ministry spokesperson told Reuters.

U.S. warns against travel to Israel, Portugal and Spain as delta fuels outbreaks – Washington Post

The United States is now warning against travel to Israel and several European countries as the more contagious delta variant fuels coronavirus outbreaks mostly among the unvaccinated.

The State Department and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new travel advisories Monday for Israel, Cyprus, Portugal and Spain, as well as Kyrgyzstan, citing surging case numbers in all five countries.

The warnings came as the White House also said it had no plans to lift broad restrictions on visitors from Britain, Europe’s Schengen region and other nations such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa. Spain and Portugal have already reopened to U.S. travelers — and Canada said it would allow entry to vaccinated Americans beginning next month.

But, “given where we are today … with the delta variant, we will maintain existing travel restrictions at this point,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Monday.

Africa wants to produce a coronavirus vaccine — and Big Pharma’s not happy – Politico

Africa is poised to make a bold move that could turn around its fortunes in coronavirus vaccine manufacturing — taking the continent from import dependence to self-sufficient production of life-saving jabs for coronavirus, TB and maybe even one day for HIV.

Two manufacturers are establishing an mRNA vaccine technology-transfer hub at the tip of the continent that could let it produce its own vaccines, on its own terms. It’s a way to address just how exposed countries are if they don’t have their own vaccine manufacturing capacity. Africa imports about 99 percent of routine immunizations — and is the least vaccinated against coronavirus in the world.

One counter-measure to address this dearth of vaccines kicked off in October 2020, when South Africa and India, scrambling for options, proposed an intellectual property waiver at the World Trade Organization. The move would allow lower-income countries to produce coronavirus vaccines without fear of infringing on patents.

The proposal has remained deadlocked, with the EU being the major blocker. But even if the proposal were accepted, it wouldn’t address one important problem — how to actually produce the vaccines.

That’s how another idea took off: The World Health Organization pitched an mRNA tech-transfer hub that would let multiple companies share the knowledge of how to produce vaccines from start to finish. Even French President Emmanuel Macron gave his stamp of approval.

Two South African companies have been chosen as the initial partners for the first hub — Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines and Biovac. Afrigen will take the role of trainer in chief and transfer the technology for the mRNA vaccines to other sites, the first being Biovac.

The choice of mRNA technology was also no coincidence.

Before the pandemic, no vaccine or therapy produced using mRNA technology had ever been approved. But the runaway success of the BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna vaccines convinced the EU to completely pivot to mRNA for future supplies.

Its promise goes beyond coronavirus and holds the potential for applications related to cancer, Ebola or HIV. But it’s exactly this potential that makes pharmaceutical companies all the more keen to cling to their newly minted technology even more tightly.

Coronavirus: Israel registers over 2,000 new cases – Jerusalem Post

Some 2,112 people tested positive for coronavirus on Monday, the Health Ministry reported on Tuesday morning, marking the highest number since March.

Monday also marked the four month record of tests processed within 24 hours with some 95,000 tests. The positive rate stood at 2.3%, also marking an increase from previous days. On the previous day, some 1,400 cases were registered, but the number of tests was significantly lower (around 72,000).

In addition, the number of serious patients climbed to 138, compared to 124 on the previous day and 97 the day before. The figure has more than doubled in a week.

The reproduction rate, or R – which measures the number of people each virus carrier infects on average – continued to be over 1, showing that the outbreak is still expanding (an R lower than 1 would show that the disease is receding). On Tuesday it stood at 1.33.

… Over half of the current cases and two thirds of patients in serious conditions were fully vaccinated.

While the data helps explain while the rise in serious morbidity has been limited compared to the general morbidity – at the beginning of June there were some 20 serious patients with less than 200 active cases in the country, now there are 138 of them with over 13,000 active cases – health officials and experts have been worrying that the protection granted to the most vulnerable sectors of the population who were vaccinated first has been waning.

The vast majority of vaccinated people in serious conditions are elderly.

CDC Changes Mind on Indoor Masking Guidance – MedPage

In an apparent change of heart, the CDC will now recommend all teachers and students wear masks in school, and that people living in COVID-19 hotspots, or areas of the country with large outbreaks, wear masks indoors, according to reports from CNN on Tuesday.

The agency will update its masking guidelines later this afternoon, according to sources familiar with the announcement, and CDC is expected to recommend that everyone in K-12 schools wear a mask, regardless of vaccination status, an administration health official told CNN.

In addition, the agency is expecting to recommend that masks be worn indoors in “areas with high or substantial” COVID-19 transmission, which constitutes over half the country. As of now, 46% of U.S. counties have “high transmission” and 17% have “substantial transmission,” according to CNN.

This will represent the agency’s third change in indoor mask guidance in the last 3 months. After dropping most mask recommendations for fully vaccinated people in May, the agency then said earlier this month that vaccinated teachers and students did not need to wear a mask indoors, though CDC still recommended indoor masking for students ages 2 and older who are not fully vaccinated.

CNN speculated that this change in guidance is likely due to the more transmissible Delta variant, as well as evidence suggesting that viral loads found in vaccinated people are “similar” to those in unvaccinated people, meaning that fully vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus, as well.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, is expected to announce the updated guidance in a briefing later today.

[editor’s note: also read CDC updates guidance, recommends vaccinated people wear masks indoors in certain areas which states in part:

To prevent further spread of the Delta variant, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its mask guidance on Tuesday to recommend that fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors when in areas with “substantial” and “high” transmission of Covid-19, which includes nearly two-thirds of all US counties.

New unpublished data showing that vaccinated people infected with the Delta coronavirus variant can have as much virus as those who are unvaccinated is the primary driver for the CDC’s latest mask guidance change, a source involved with the decision process told CNN. Overall, vaccinated people still play a small role in transmission and breakthrough infections are rare.

In addition, the source noted two other factors that led to this decision: the prevalence of the Delta variant and low vaccine uptake.]

Majority Of Hospitalized Covid Patients In UK Only Tested Positive After Admission: Leaked NHS Data – ZeroHedge

Over half of those hospitalized with Covid-19 in the UK only tested positive after admission – suggesting that “vast numbers are being classed as hospitalised by Covid when they were admitted with other ailments, with the virus picked up by routine testing,” according to The Telegraph, citing leaked government figures.

The takeaway? Oft-cited statistics published daily may far overstate Covid hospitalizations – and consequently, pressures on the National Health Service (NHS).

The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.

The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.

Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.

Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up. -Telegraph

Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection? – Israel National News

Coronavirus patients who recovered from the virus were far less likely to become infected during the latest wave of the pandemic than people who were vaccinated against COVID, according to numbers presented to the Israeli Health Ministry.

Health Ministry data on the wave of COVID outbreaks which began this May show that Israelis with immunity from natural infection were far less likely to become infected again in comparison to Israelis who only had immunity via vaccination.

More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.

CDC study on efficacy of mRNA vaccines against symptomatic COVID-19 – News-Medical

This study shows that the mRNA vaccines reduce symptomatic confirmed COVID-19 by 91% in the fully vaccinated group, vs. 75% among the partially vaccinated. These corroborate and strengthen the evidence from earlier clinical trials that these vaccines reduce the severity of illness across the spectrum of COVID-19.

The setting of the current study, which focused on outpatients, is suitable for detecting mild infections and infections in younger patients, who are being affected in larger proportions as the pandemic progresses, and who are more likely to develop moderate rather than severe symptoms.

Secondly, this group is more likely to be unvaccinated, predisposing them to a higher risk of disease. Thirdly, outpatient studies are geared towards patients with mild and moderate disease. These factors ensure that vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 in real-time, especially variants of concern, can be better monitored in this setting, which precludes many sources of confounding.

“In this study, receipt of mRNA vaccines was associated with prevention of most mild to moderate COVID-19 in outpatients seeking medical care or testing in the U.S. The findings support ACIP recommendations to vaccinate eligible persons as well as efforts to increase vaccine coverage in the U.S. population for the prevention of symptomatic illness.”

70 percent of adults vaccinated with one dose, EU says – The Hill

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Tuesday that 70 percent of adults in the European Union have received at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine.

“Our target was to protect 70 percent of adults in the European Union with at least one vaccination in July,” Von der Leyen said in a statement.

“Today we have achieved this target. And 57 percent of adults already have the full protection of double vaccination,” she added.

The accomplishment comes after von der Leyen announced earlier in July that enough vaccine doses had been delivered to the EU to allow 70 percent of adults to be fully vaccinated.

Countries in the European Union and around the world have been getting hit with the delta variant of the coronavirus, causing some countries to mandate vaccines for some.

What Is Ivermectin? The Anti-Parasitic Drug Investigated As a COVID Treatment – Newsweek

Two experts told Newsweek that this is unlikely. Ward said that at doses being used, ivermectin “is not likely to be as harmful as hydroxychloroquine, which can (and did) cause cardiac problems in recipients.”

Boulware said that the data with ivermectin “looks much more promising than in hydroxychloroquine,” but stopped short of calling for its use as a COVID treatment in the U.S. until more evidence becomes available.

Nonetheless, he added that “the same sort of crowd” that latched onto hydroxychloroquine have been supporting ivermectin.

In June, Republican Senator Ron Johnson was suspended from YouTube temporarily for sharing a clip in which he touted both hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin as COVID-19 treatments, the Washington Post reported.

Is It Useful for COVID?

Some studies have suggested it might be.

The medicine has been reported as having antiviral effects in viral culture studies—that is, in a lab dish.

Boulware said: “It presumably is doing something on the human cellular level to block replication of the virus. There’s been a little bit of handwaving on what the exact mechanism is.”

However, the downside is that the amount of drug needed to inhibit the virus in the human body is prohibitively large.

According to the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), while ivermectin has been shown to stop the COVID-19 virus from replicating in cell cultures, studies suggest that the dosage necessary to replicate this in humans would need to be 100 times higher than is currently approved for use.

Plus, an antiviral effect in a petri dish does not necessarily mean the drug will work so well in the real world, according to Dr. Peter English, a recently retired consultant in communicable disease control at Public Health England.

English told Newsweek: “Despite widespread endorsement by [the] optimistic, the research so far has not convincingly shown that ivermectin is usefully effective in preventing or treating COVID-19, and it is very unlikely that the benefits of using it would outweigh the risks.”

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Tokyo set a pandemic mark in cases on Tuesday (2,848); authorities have requested more hospital beds for patients, citing the Delta variant for the surge.

Record number of COVID-19 cases reported in Tokyo after Olympics start

Koreas agree to restore communication channels and improve ties

Global supply lines struggle amid virus outbreaks in the developing world

Antibodies From Sinovac’s COVID-19 Shot Fade After About 6 Months, Booster Helps: Study

Israel Weighing COVID Booster Shots for Over 60s Before FDA Approval

Saudi Arabia threatening years-long travel bans for trips to ‘red list’ countries

Germany to test travelers for virus on entry: report

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Union Pacific has begun a controlled restoration of train service from West Coast ports to the Chicago metropolitan area, hoping a fresh restart will restore terminal fluidity for international intermodal customers.

Americans with “long Covid” will have access to benefits under federal disability law.

Return to office is facing a hurdle: Young people who like remote work.

California to mandate vaccine or coronavirus weekly testing for all state workers

Florida and Arkansas currently share a grim distinction when it comes to the spread of the coronavirus. Every one of the two states’ counties is now listed as having “high” levels of community transmission, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

After the VA became the first federal agency to mandate COVID-19 vaccine for its workers, the Department of Justice (DOJ) posted an opinion stating that federal law does not prohibit vaccine requirements by public and private businesses, even while under emergency use authorization.

In France, all healthcare workers must be vaccinated by mid-September or face suspension, while virus “passes” will be required for eating at restaurants and domestic travel there.

Pushed by the FDA, Moderna and Pfizer are expanding enrollment of their COVID vaccination trials involving kids ages 5 to 11, in order to better detect rare side effects such as myocarditis.

Researchers are trying to uncover why cognitive problems persist in recovered COVID patients, and whether the virus might make these patients more susceptible to one day getting Alzheimer’s disease.

Unvaccinated Republicans who were exposed to vaccine endorsements from Republican “elites” such as former President Trump reported being more likely to get vaccinated, according to a new study.

CDC to urge vaccinated people to resume wearing masks indoors in some circumstances as delta variant spreads

States that cut unemployment early aren’t seeing a hiring boom, early evidence finds

Biden, pulling combat forces from Iraq, seeks to end the post-9/11 era

Home schooling exploded among Black, Asian and Latino students. But it wasn’t just the pandemic.

Facebook poll suggests breakthrough infections are linked to long COVID

One dose of mRNA vaccine reduced COVID risk for at least four months in health care workers

Miami ICU full with unvaccinated patients

Colombian COVID Variant Spreading in Areas of Florida

Alabama COVID Hospitalizations Jump 400% as Governor Blames ‘Unvaccinated’

Mississippi and Louisiana have some of the worst vaccine rates and highest hospitalizations in U.S.

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks

June 2021 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Little Changed

July 2021 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Again Improves

S and P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index May 2021 Year-over-Year Growth Continues

Headline Durable Goods New Orders Improved Again In June 2021

As Scientists Have Long Predicted, Warming Is Making Heatwaves More Deadly

U.S. States Closest To Full Vaccination

Delta Doves

Shortest Recession In History Sets Up Next Recession

The Trump Administration Feuded With State And Local Leaders Over Pandemic Response – Now The Biden Administration Is Trying To Turn Back A Page In History

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