Of the four Federal Reserve districts which have released their July manufacturing surveys – all are in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Important subindices new orders were little changed (remains in expansion and unfilled orders were little changed (remains in expansion). This should be considered about the same as last month. Data were collected July 13-21, and 104 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.
The expectations from Econoday were 31.1 to 33.5 (consensus 32.0) for the general activity index and the reported value improved from 29.4 to 30.1. From the Dallas Fed:
Texas factory activity continued its robust expansion in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 31.0, a reading well above average and indicative of strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to continued growth this month.
The new orders index came in at 26.8, unchanged from June and quadruple the series average of 6.5. The growth rate of orders index edged up to 25.8. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes held steady at highly elevated levels of 29.9 and 31.6, respectively.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in July; the indexes eased slightly from June levels but remained well above average. The general business activity index fell four points to 27.3, and the company outlook index fell five points to 22.2. The outlook uncertainty index inched down to 14.6.
Labor market measures indicate continued growth. The employment index held steady at a highly elevated 23.7. Thirty-one percent of firms noted net hiring, while 8 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index also held steady at 24.2.
Prices and wages continued to increase in July. Price indexes eased off the all-time highs reached last month but remained strongly elevated, with the raw materials prices index coming in at 73.5 and the finished goods prices index coming in at 40.9. Similarly, the wages and benefits index ticked down to 46.0 from its historical high of 48.1 in June.
Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity remained optimistic in July. The future production index slipped eight points to 48.4, and the future general business activity index was unchanged at 37.1. Most other measures of future manufacturing activity declined but remained solidly in positive territory.
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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