Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 60.1 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 10.0 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 63,818
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 362
- An Untreatable Fungus Is Spreading In Two Hospitals And A Nursing Home.
- 20% Of New LA COVID Cases Are In Vaccinated People As Delta Variant Spikes
- Mayo Clinic expert warns delta variant will infect everyone who is not immune
- Emerging SARS-CoV-2 mutations L452R & Y453F evade cellular immunity
- What’s This About Delta Being 1,000 Times More Infectious?
- Biden says CDC will advise unvaccinated kids to wear masks in school
- Biden-Big Tech COVID Censorship Collusion Is Tip of Ruling Class’ Spear
- Vaccine mandates are controversial. They’re also an effective way to save lives.
- Countries Move Ahead With Mix-and-Match COVID Vaccines
- More than two thirds of India may have Covid antibodies, new survey shows
- Findings In The Blood Of The Vaccinated
- New Zealand-Australia travel bubble bursts
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
20% Of New LA COVID Cases Are In Vaccinated People As Delta Variant Spikes – Newsweek
Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer announced on Thursday that 20 percent of new COVID-19 cases identified in Los Angeles County were in vaccinated individuals.
“The Delta variant is a game-changer,” Ferrer said. With the Delta variant driving community spread and positive case numbers up in LA County, the percentage of breakthrough cases in fully-vaccinated people has gone up as well. The daily average case rate was 7.1 per 100,000 people on July 15 and shot up to 12.9 on Thursday.
Ferrer says one reason more vaccinated people are catching the virus is that more people are vaccinated.
U.S. appeals court finds CDC eviction moratorium unlawful – Yahoo
A U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lacked authority for the national moratorium it imposed last year on most residential evictions to help curb the spread of the coronavirus.
The ruling by the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati means judges in Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio and Michigan are no longer bound by the moratorium, said Joshua Kahane, the lawyer who argued the case for a property manager.
The unanimous decision by the three-judge panel upheld a lower court ruling in March finding the CDC overstepped its authority when it issued the moratorium last year.
The opinion by Judges Alan Norris, Amul Thapar and John Bush said dealing with the evictions during the pandemic could not be delegated to the CDC under existing law.
“While landlords and tenants likely disagree on much, there is one thing both deserve: for their problems to be resolved by their elected representatives,” wrote Judge Thapar in a concurring opinion.
The moratorium is set to expire on July 31 and the Biden administration said in June it would not grant further extensions.
Pfizer shot 39% effective against delta in Israel, still prevents severe illness – CNBC
Pfizer‘s and BioNTech‘s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country’s health ministry.
The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.
However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.
“We have to be mindful that, with time, the effectiveness of these vaccines may wane,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease professor at the University of Toronto.
He stressed that the shots are still highly effective in preventing severe infection, helping hospital systems not get too overwhelmed heading into the colder months. That being said, “we’re still in the Covid era and anything can happen,” he said.
“We have to be prepared and we have to be nimble that people may need a booster at some point,” he added. “This close surveillance that’s happening in countries like Israel, the U.K. and other parts of the world is going to be very helpful in driving policy if and when we do need boosters.”
Mayo Clinic expert warns delta variant will infect everyone who is not immune – The Hill
A top expert on vaccinations is urging Americans to receive the COVID-19 vaccine as the number of new infections fueled by the highly contagious delta variant continues to rise in the U.S.
“I think there is no question that we are going to see a surge,” Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic told CBS 4 Minnesota Tuesday.
The doctor said he still wears a mask when out in public when he’s “in a crowded scenario,” whether it be indoors or outdoors.
He noted that Minnesota, like many other parts of the country, are experiencing a rise in cases as the delta variant continues to circulate, and he’s seeing cases of severe disease and hospitalization among younger people.
“Don’t be deceived that ‘I got this far and I am OK.’ This is a very different variant. It will find you,” he told CBS 4.
“This virus will find everybody who is not immune,” he added.
Public health officials are becoming increasingly concerned as the number of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths increase while vaccination in the U.S. lag.
Vaccine mandates are controversial. They’re also an effective way to save lives. – New York Times
- Before Houston Methodist became one of the first hospital systems in the U.S. to mandate Covid-19 vaccines, about 85 percent of its employees were vaccinated. After the mandate, the share rose to about 98 percent, with the remaining 2 percent receiving exemptions for medical or religious reasons, Bloomberg’s Carey Goldberg reported. Only about 0.6 percent of employees quit or were fired.
- Schools — including Indiana University and many private colleges — that require students and workers to get vaccinated have reported extremely high uptake.
- A recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey of Americans who had been opposed to getting vaccinated and later changed their minds found that mandates — or restrictions on the unvaccinated — were one common reason. One 51-year-old man told Kaiser that he began to feel as if he had “limited options without it.”
- The French government will soon require that people show proof of vaccination or a recent negative test to eat at a restaurant, attend a movie or participate in many other activities. After President Emmanuel Macron announced the policy last week, the number of vaccine appointments surged. Italy announced a similar policy yesterday, The Times’s Marc Santora explains.
It’s true that these mandates often generate intense criticism. In France, more than 100,000 people marched to protest Macron’s policy. In the U.S., critics sued, unsuccessfully so far, to stop Indiana University’s mandate. Some Republican politicians have also tried to stop mandates, including Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio.
The mandates are also not 100 percent effective. Some people will receive exemptions, as was the case at Houston Methodist. A small number may forge vaccine records. And some vaccinated people will still contract mild versions of Covid, through so-called breakthrough infections.
But even with the opposition and the exceptions, mandates can play a major role in reducing the spread of Covid and saving lives. That’s especially true now that the Delta variant is fueling a rise in cases. “The takeaway message remains, if you’re vaccinated, you are protected,” Dr. Céline Gounder, an infectious disease specialist, told our colleague Apoorva Mandavilli. “You are not going to end up with severe disease, hospitalization or death.”
Countries Move Ahead With Mix-and-Match COVID Vaccines – MedPage
While the data remain preliminary, some countries are moving ahead with mixing and matching mRNA and adenoviral vector COVID-19 vaccines, often driven by supply challenges.
Germany has recently made an official recommendation to mix-and-match, encouraging citizens to follow their AstraZeneca shots with a dose of an mRNA vaccine. Chancellor Angela Merkel led the way by following her initial AstraZeneca dose with a shot of Moderna in June.
Other countries like Canada and Thailand have started administering vaccines on a heterologous schedule.
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), while not issuing any specific recommendations, promoted the mix-and-match approach in a recent press release.
“There are good scientific grounds to expect this strategy to be safe and effective when applied to vaccination against COVID-19,” the press release stated. “Preliminary results from studies in Spain, Germany, and the U.K. suggest a satisfactory immune response and no safety concerns. More data are awaited shortly, and EMA will continue to review these as they become available.”
The EMA and ECDC noted in the release that the approach “may allow populations to be protected more quickly and make better use of available vaccine supplies.”
Neither the World Health Organization (WHO) nor the CDC endorse the approach, however.
[editor’s note: Cruise lines do NOT accept that one is vaccinated if the records show mix & match]
‘Superbug’ fungus spread in two cities, health officials say – Fox
U.S. health officials said Thursday they now have evidence of an untreatable fungus spreading in two hospitals and a nursing home.
The “superbug” outbreaks were reported in a Washington, D.C, nursing home and at two Dallas-area hospitals, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported. A handful of the patients had invasive fungal infections that were impervious to all three major classes of medications.
“This is really the first time we’ve started seeing clustering of resistance” in which patients seemed to be getting the infections from each other, said the CDC’s Dr. Meghan Lyman.
The fungus, Candida auris, is a harmful form of yeast that is considered dangerous to hospital and nursing home patients with serious medical problems. It is most deadly when it enters the bloodstream, heart or brain. Outbreaks in health care facilities have been spurred when the fungus spread through patient contact or on contaminated surfaces.
Health officials have sounded alarms for years about the superbug after seeing infections in which commonly used drugs had little effect. In 2019, doctors diagnosed three cases in New York that were also resistant to a class of drugs, called echinocandins, that were considered a last line of defense.
[editor’s note: also read Hospital Cleaners Are Not Effective Against Superbug Fungus]
Emerging SARS-CoV-2 mutations L452R & Y453F evade cellular immunity – News-Medical
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), continues to spread globally, with the total number of cases reaching over 191 million. To date, the pandemic has claimed over 4.12 million lives.
Despite vaccination efforts, many SARS-CoV-2 variants with naturally acquired mutations have emerged. The mutations affect viral properties such as transmissibility, infectivity, and evasion of immune responses.
Researchers at the Kumamoto University and Weizmann Institute of Science found that the L452R mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which is common to two mutant strains, the Epsilon and Delta, can evade cellular immunity through the human leukocyte (HLA) A24 and can increase viral infectivity.
The study, published in the journal Cell Host & Microbe, also showed emerging mutations L452R and Y453F in the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding motif evade (HLA) A24-restricted cellular immunity. Meanwhile, the L452R enhances spike stability, viral fusogenicity, and viral infectivity. Hence, the findings suggest that HLA-restricted cellular immunity potentially affects the evolution of viral phenotypes.
More than two thirds of India may have Covid antibodies, new survey shows – CNN
More than two thirds of India’s population may have Covid-19 antibodies, according to a new serological survey released Tuesday, providing yet more evidence the virus may have spread far more widely than official figures suggest.
About 67.6% of Indians surveyed above the age of 6 showed antibodies, according to the nationwide study, which was conducted between June and July by the government-run Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). The survey covered 70 districts in 21 states, with 28,975 participants.
Our immune systems develop antibodies either induced by vaccination, or in response to infection. The majority of survey participants, 62%, had not received a vaccine; about a quarter had gotten their first dose.
The study marks a dramatic jump from just a few months ago — at the start of the year, less than one quarter of participants were showing antibodies, according to the last national serological survey.
But in the months between the two surveys, India was devastated by a massive second wave, which overwhelmed the medical system and left people dying outside hospitals, waiting for oxygen or an open bed. The wave lasted from April through June, infecting millions and killing tens of thousands.
FINDINGS IN THE BLOOD OF THE VACCINATED – BitChute
[editor’s note: my level of confidence that this video is true is not high – although I could not disprove the facts presented. I suspect that this blood sample (if it has not been photoshopped) is an outlier as blood donations from vaccinated people is still encouraged]
Biden-Big Tech COVID Censorship Collusion Is Tip of Ruling Class’ Spear – Newsweek
As America witnesses with shock the Biden administration’s open and unabashed collusion with Big Tech to censor those engaging in COVID speech it deems problematic, the administration’s allies promising the same with respect to SMS carriers and a threatened door-to-door vaccination campaign, C.S. Lewis’ old saw that “a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive” comes to mind.
The issue at play here is manifestly not coronavirus vaccine efficacy, vaccination rates or public policy messaging, but the deeper question of who gets to determine the content of speech and the contours of our public discourse: A free, sovereign people or an insular Ruling Class?
It’s not about whether a Ministry of Truth that lies and obscures all the time can be a competent arbiter of the quality of information, but whether there should be a Ministry of Truth at all.
And if we are still America, the answer is clear: There shouldn’t be.
Free peoples begin their descent to unfreedom when they permit their leaders to grab powers in violation of their natural rights on grounds of public health and national security. Typically, this process begins with seemingly minor interventions in the most seemingly unobjectionable areas, so as to generate the least resistance.
But just as “15 days to slow the spread” metastasized into assaults on speech, religion, commerce, justice, election law and every other aspect of American life, so too will “fighting COVID misinformation” by blacklisting a dozen social media accounts metastasize into an attempted monopolization of the entire information sphere by our Ruling Class.
New Zealand-Australia travel bubble bursts – CNN
Quarantine-free travel from all Australian states and territories to New Zealand will be suspended, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins announced on July 23.
The news comes as Australia continues to grapple with a Covid outbreak spreading through multiple states despite lockdowns.
“Given the high level of transmissibility of the Delta variant, and the fact that there are now multiple community clusters, it is the right thing to do to keep Covid-19 out of New Zealand,” Hipkins said.
From 11:59 p.m. Friday (7:59 a.m. EST), Australians will no longer be able to enter New Zealand quarantine-free for at least the next eight weeks.
Biden says CDC will advise unvaccinated kids to wear masks in school – The Hill
President Biden said Wednesday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) would likely issue guidance encouraging children who have not been vaccinated against the coronavirus to wear masks in schools.
“The CDC is going to say that what we should do is, everyone under the age of 12 should probably be wearing a mask in school,” Biden said at a CNN town hall in Cincinnati on Wednesday evening.
“That’s probably what’s going to happen. Secondly, those over the age of 12 who are able to get vaccinated — if you’re vaccinated, you shouldn’t wear a mask, if you aren’t vaccinated, you should be wearing a mask,” he said.
Biden suggested that enforcing the guidance would be difficult but that it would be a “community responsibility.”
“It’s a matter of community responsibility and I think you’re going to see it work through,” Biden said.
What’s This About Delta Being 1,000 Times More Infectious? – MedPage
You’ve been hearing it a lot lately: the Delta variant is 1,000 times more infectious than the original version of SARS-CoV-2.
So where does that figure come from?
It’s from a study by the Guangdong CDC in China — published earlier this month as a preprint on both medRxiv and virological.org — that experts are touting for its solid science.
Baisheng Li, MD, and colleagues studied 62 people and their close contacts who were infected in the initial Delta outbreak in Guangzhou from May 21 to June 18. These close contacts were tested daily via PCR, and data were compared with similar sampling from 63 people infected with an earlier version of the virus from the first wave in 2020.
Ultimately, they found that the viral load for the first positive test was 1,260 times higher for Delta compared with the variant in the initial wave of infections — hence, the “1,000 times” higher estimate going around social and other media.
… The increased transmissibility for Delta is also supported by epidemiological evidence from the U.K., which found Delta to be about 64% more transmissible than the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). Alpha was already estimated to be 50% more transmissible than the wild-type virus, or the D614G strain — making Delta about twice as transmissible as wild-type virus.
Rasmussen said the findings from Li’s group only make the need to get vaccinated more urgent, since the fully vaccinated “have high titers of neutralizing antibodies and mature memory B and T cell responses. It’s a lot harder for Delta to overwhelm these defenses by just throwing more virus at them.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
To reach a peace deal, Taliban say Afghan president must go
Norway scrambles warplanes to escort Russian bombers
France imposes vaccine pass amid ‘stratospheric’ spike in delta variant infections
Biden, Democrats’ lack of urgency towards China poses significant threat to America’s security
‘Pingdemic’ Triggers Widespread Panic Hoarding At UK Supermarkets. Britain’s supermarkets are struggling to ensure adequate food supply after reports of panic hoarding due to what the British press calls ” ping-demic ” – a reference to being “pinged” by the NHS test-and-trace system.
House Democrats Block COVID Origins Declassification Bill. House Democrats on Tuesday blocked a GOP bill which would require the Director of National Intelligence to declassify information related to the US government’s investigations into the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic.
“Hundreds Of Thousands Have Disappeared” – Inside China’s Largest Detention Center. President Biden is ramping up pressure on Beijing over its alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, which include – according to human rights groups – warehousing the Uygher Muslims who populate the far-western region in prisons
Tokyo Olympics begin officially with the Opening Ceremonies, a four-hour extravaganza
India’s government pooh-poohed a recent study saying the country’s death toll from COVID-19 is likely much higher than the official count.
The Olympics raises the question: is there such a thing as too much COVID testing?
At least 100 US Olympic athletes are unvaccinated as 2020 Games begin
Public spaces closed in Bangkok as coronavirus surges
WHO Doesn’t See Pandemic Ending Until At Least Middle of 2022
Ancient viruses dating back 15,000 years found in Tibetan glacier
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Cleveland’s MLB team announces its new name, will rebrand as the Guardians
Pelosi says ‘deadly serious’ Jan. 6 probe to go without GOP
As Americans have shed masks and gathered together, viruses that cause drippy noses, coughs and sneezes have returned.
Mississippi urged the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow a ban on most abortions after 15 weeks. The court will hear arguments this fall.
American Hospital Association Joins Others in Support of COVID Vax Mandates
CDC Staff Hint at Vax Boosters for the Immunocompromised
Why Everyone Has the Worst Summer Cold Ever.
Hospitals are using a novel solution to cool patients suffering from heatstroke in the Pacific Northwest: body bags.
Public health groups are urging CDC to change its mask guidance and again recommend masking for everyone — including vaccinated people — especially indoors.
64% of Unvaccinated Americans Say COVID Shot Ineffective Against Variants
Cleveland Indians changing name to Cleveland Guardians
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
16 July 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Decline Continues
June 2021 Coincident Indices Generally Show Strong Growth
Hospital ‘Trauma Centers’ Charge Enormous Fees To Treat Minor Injuries And Send People Home
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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