Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 320 K to 364 K (consensus 350 K), and the Department of Labor reported 419,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 384,500 (reported last week as 382,500) to 385,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 86,309,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 12,573,833, down from last week’s 13,836,648
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 73 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 74 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending July 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 419,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 8,000 from 360,000 to 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,000 from 382,500 to 384,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending July 10, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 10 was 3,236,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 21, 2020 when it was 3,094,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 24,000 from 3,241,000 to 3,265,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,338,000, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 6,000 from 3,376,000 to 3,382,000.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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