Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 68.0 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 21.9 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 51,874
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 362
• England’s lifting of Covid lockdowns is a danger to the entire world, experts warn
• The unusual Lambda variant is rapidly spreading in South America. Here’s what we know.
• Singapore and the UK are both planning to ‘live with Covid.’ They are worlds apart on how to do that
• Facebook Claims Biden ‘Looking for Scapegoats’ for Missing Vaccine Goals
• Wildfire smoke may greatly increase susceptibility to COVID-19
• Beta Variant May Increase Hospitalizations and Deaths
• Beta variant may evade AstraZeneca vaccine
• Chinese health agency says coronavirus vaccines are voluntary despite local rules
• Could COVID Shots in Secret Lure Holdouts?
• White House Says 1 in 5 COVID Cases in U.S. Last Week From Florida Alone
• TRUSTED NEWS INITIATIVE TO COMBAT SPREAD OF HARMFUL VACCINE DISINFORMATION

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.

source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.

Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed

The unusual Lambda variant is rapidly spreading in South America. Here’s what we know. – National Geographic

A coronavirus variant known as Lambda, which has largely slid under the radar for the past nine months, is now causing almost all new infections in Peru.

Lambda (also known as C.37) was first detected in Peru in August 2020 and has spread to 29 countries, many in Latin America. And, since January 20, 2021, 668 Lambda infections have been reported in the United States. In Peru, Lambda is now responsible for more than 90 percent of new COVID-19 cases, a steep rise from less than 0.5 percent in December. The country has already suffered the world’s worst mortality due to COVID-19; the disease has killed about 0.54 percent of the population.

The Lambda variant likely caused the high number of infections during the second wave between the end of March and April, Peruvian Minister of Health Óscar Ugarte said in a news conference. In neighboring Chile, where the primary vaccine is China’s CoronaVac, Lambda accounts for 31 percent of sequenced cases in the last 60 days. The high case numbers are occurring even though 58.6 percent of Chile’s population is fully vaccinated and another 10 percent has received a single dose. The poor efficacy of the vaccine maybe partly to blame. A study by the University of Chile found that a single dose of the CoronaVac vaccine was only 3 percent effective, but that rose to 56.5 percent after both doses.

“Why Chile is getting such high infection rates is perplexing, and it’s likely due to several factors. Because of their high vaccination coverage, the restrictions were relaxed a little too soon, and that could have led to [a] rise in cases,” says Pablo Tsukayama, a microbiologist at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru. It was Tsukayama who first spotted the Lambda variant after routinely sequencing the samples deposited between January and March 2021. “But it is also possible that the main variants in circulation, Gamma and Lambda, have some immune escape properties that lead to reduced protection from vaccines.”

The possibility that Lambda might be able to dodge the immune system led the World Health Organization to designate it as a Variant of Interest (VOI) on June 14. WHO categorizes a virus as a VOI when genetic changes in the virus are so significant that they may affect its transmissibility, disease severity, immune escape, diagnosis or therapy; and it spreads rapidly through a community.

… The Lambda variant remained undetected for many months because it was frequently mistaken for Gamma—the variant first identified in Brazil and also known as P.1.

… Another study, also not yet peer reviewed, shows that Lambda can escape the neutralizing antibodies produced by the WHO approved, China-developed CoronaVac vaccine, although lead author Ricardo Soto Rifo, a virologist at the Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Santiago, Chile, clarified, “We still don’t have evidence to say that Lambda is more transmissible, we don’t have evidence to say that Lambda is responsible for vaccine breakthrough, we don’t have evidence to state that Lambda is responsible for more severe disease or whether Lambda is responsible for death.”

Could COVID Shots in Secret Lure Holdouts? – MedPage

In COVID-19 hot spots across the country where the Delta variant is thriving and vaccine hesitancy is high, hospitals have continued to urge for more people to get vaccinated. In the case of Ozarks Healthcare, based in West Plains, Mo., the health system recently issued an impassioned plea for people to get vaccinated, even if it means doing so in secret.

They offered to answer any questions about the vaccine and help with scheduling in a recent statement, addressing the local community.

Notably, the health system added: “If you are afraid of walking into a public area where you might be seen getting your vaccine, we will work to accommodate even more of a private setting for you to receive your vaccine.”

With misinformation rampant and vaccination status largely divided by political lines, the concept of making a public appeal to offer the COVID vaccine in private seems to be a unique approach.

“Choosing to get vaccinated has been put in a strange light,” Ozarks Healthcare wrote. “For some, getting a vaccine may mean losing friendships. But it is a choice that can impact so many lives other than your own.”

Wildfire smoke may greatly increase susceptibility to COVID-19 – News-Medical

Wildfire smoke may greatly increase susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, according to new research from the Center for Genomic Medicine at the Desert Research Institute (DRI), Washoe County Health District (WCHD), and Renown Health (Renown) in Reno, Nev.

In a study published earlier this week in the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, the DRI-led research team set out to examine whether smoke from 2020 wildfires in the Western U.S. was associated with an increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections in Reno.

To explore this, the study team used models to analyze the relationship between fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) from wildfire smoke and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rate data from Renown Health, a large, integrated healthcare network serving Nevada, Lake Tahoe, and northeast California.

According to their results, PM 2.5 from wildfire smoke was responsible for a 17.7 percent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases that occurred during a period of prolonged smoke that took place between Aug. 16 and Oct. 10, 2020.

Our results showed a substantial increase in the COVID-19 positivity rate in Reno during a time when we were affected by heavy wildfire smoke from California wildfires. This is important to be aware of as we are already confronting heavy wildfire smoke from the Beckwourth Complex fire and with COVID-19 cases again rising in Nevada and other parts of the Western U.S.”

Daniel Kiser, M.S., co-lead author of the study and assistant research scientist of data science at DRI

Beta Variant May Increase Hospitalizations and Deaths – Medscape

The Beta variant of the coronavirus may be deadlier than the original version of the virus, according to researchers in South Africa who studied more than 1.5 million COVID-19 patients.

Although the Delta variant now accounts for the largest percentage of new COVID-19 cases in many countries, Beta is still circulating, with mutations that make it highly contagious and harder to prevent or treat than the original version.

The researchers found that people infected in the second wave of the pandemic, when Beta was dominant, were more likely to require hospitalization than those infected during the first wave, after accounting for patients’ risk factors and how over-burdened hospitals were.

Furthermore, hospitalized COVID-19 patients had a 31% higher risk of death in the second wave, according to the report published in The Lancet Global Health

The researchers did not know each patient’s infecting variant, so they had to use the first and second wave periods as proxies for the variant type, co-author Dr. Waasila Jassat of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in Johannesburg told Reuters.

“We hope to repeat the analysis, comparing the third wave in South Africa to the first two waves, to similarly try to understand whether the Delta wave is associated with higher risk of death,” she said.

Facebook Claims Biden ‘Looking for Scapegoats’ for Missing Vaccine Goals – Newsweek

A Facebook official has claimed that the White House is looking for “scapegoats” after the Biden administration missed its COVID-19 vaccination goal in response to criticism from President Joe Biden.

Biden said Facebook was “killing people” on Friday after being asked a question about COVID misinformation on the popular social media site. White House efforts to tackle that misinformation have caused recent controversy.

A Facebook spokesperson issued a statement to NBC Senior Media Reporter Dylan Byers on Friday touting the company’s efforts to encourage vaccinations. In a later statement, a Facebook official also appeared to take aim at the Biden administration.

Louisiana Man Dies of COVID-19 After Calling Vaccines ‘Poison’

According to Byers, Facebook said: “We will not be distracted by accusations which aren’t supported by the facts.

“The fact is that more than 2 billion people have viewed authoritative information about COVID-19 and vaccines on Facebook, which is more than any other place on the internet.

[editor’s note: also read Infectious disease expert agrees with Biden that platforms like Facebook are ‘killing people’ with Covid…]

England’s lifting of Covid lockdowns is a danger to the entire world, experts warn – CNBC

• Gathering at a virtual summit on Friday, leading scientists and government advisors from all over the world warned that Britain was heading for disaster by removing most of its remaining restrictions on Monday.
• The event came as more than 1,200 scientists backed a letter to the Lancet medical journal, in which U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plans were dubbed “dangerous and premature.”

Singapore and the UK are both planning to ‘live with Covid.’ They are worlds apart on how to do that – CNN

More than a year and a half into the coronavirus pandemic, the world’s rich nations are beginning to accept that Covid-19 is not going away — despite high vaccination rates drastically cutting the number of hospitalizations and deaths.

But while they may agree that the virus is here to stay, in some form, for the foreseeable future, these countries have radically different approaches to dealing with it.

Singapore, an island state of 5.69 million, and the UK, home to an estimated 66 million people, have had very different pandemic experiences — and outcomes — so far.

While the UK has one of the highest numbers of Covid-19 related deaths in the world — nearly 129,000 since the pandemic started — only 36 people have died of Covid-19 in Singapore. For every 100,000 of the population in the UK, there have been 192.64 Covid-19 deaths in the UK. This goes down to 0.63 in Singapore, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

The UK government was widely condemned for being slow to implement pandemic control measures, such as mask mandates and lockdowns, as the virus began to spread in spring 2020.

By contrast, Singapore was quick to shut its borders, implemented a comprehensive contact tracing and testing program, and imposed quarantine requirements early on.

Now the two countries are charting different paths out of the pandemic; their plans are likely to be seen as test cases for other nations as they ramp up their vaccination programs.

… Singapore’s authorities were looking to change tack, moving away from daily monitoring of cases to a focus on medical outcomes such as “how many fall very sick, how many in the intensive care unit, how many need to be intubated for oxygen, and so on,” they wrote.

Eventually, they hope, Covid-19 will be treated as a less severe disease, like influenza or chicken pox.

… Watson contrasted the UK’s loosening of restrictions in the face of all the data, with the situation in Singapore, where — despite a determination to return to normal life — the authorities still appear keen to clamp down on cases of the virus.

“The ease with which Singapore will tighten their restrictions in response to local outbreaks is just completely worlds apart to how they [the UK government] handles things,” he said.

Beta variant may evade AstraZeneca vaccine – The Guardian

The Beta variant of the coronavirus spreading in France may evade vaccines, a scientist involved in advising the government has warned.

The government has said travellers returning from France – unlike other amber list destinations – must continue to self-isolate even if they are fully vaccinated.

Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said ministers were right to be concerned, PA news reports.

He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme:

The Beta variant has remained a threat throughout. It is probably less infectious than the Delta variant that is spreading here in the UK at the moment. Where it has an advantage is that it is able to escape the immune response to a better extent.

As the population here becomes more and more immune, the conditions are right then for the Beta variant to get an advantage, so I can understand the concern.

Of the variants that are out there and are known about, that one has always been a threat to us. There is some good evidence from South Africa that it can evade the immune response generated by the AstraZeneca vaccine more efficiently.

Chinese health agency says coronavirus vaccines are voluntary despite local rules – South China Morning Post

• National Health Commission’s statement comes days after dozens of counties and cities said access to public venues would be restricted for unvaccinated adults
• The NHC says it ‘will continually pay attention to the use of compulsory means’ for vaccinations

Nobel Laureate Luc Montagnier – Warns Covid Vaccine May Lead to ‘Neurodegenerative Illness’ – RAIR

During a stunning interview, Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier expressed strong concerns about the coronavirus vaccine’s mid-term, long-term, and even generational consequences.

Montagnier warned that “neurodegenerative illness” is a potential side effect of the coronavirus vaccine and said in no uncertain terms that he is “outraged” about the widespread vaccination of children.

The prominent virologist further disputed an online rumor likely meant to distract from his viral observation, first translated from French at RAIR Foundation USA, that the coronavirus vaccine is the cause of the variants.

Prof. Montagnier clarified during the interview with Xavier Azalbert, a journalist with France Soir, that while the rumors about his vaccine observations are untrue, his criticism of the vaccine is very real.

Montagnier said in part:

We’re in unknown territory and proclaim mandatory vaccines for everyone. It’s insanity. It’s vaccination insanity that I absolutely condemn.

He explained that he “is not looking for controversy, but for truth”.

[editor’s note: Luc Montagnier Is Not Losing It. Luc Montagnier Has Lost It.]

White House Admits To Flagging Posts To Be Censored By Facebook – ZeroHedge

We have previously discussed the extensive censorship programs maintained by Big Tech, including companies like Twitter and Facebook taking sides in major controversies from gender identification to election fraud to Covid-19. The rise of corporate censors has combined with a heavily pro-Biden media to create the fear of a de facto state media that controls information due to a shared ideology rather than state coercion. That concern has been magnified by demands from Democratic leaders for increased censorship, including censoring political speech, and now word that the Biden Administration has routinely been flagging material to be censored by Facebook.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki admitted that the Biden administration is working with Facebook to flag “problematic” posts that “spread disinformation” on COVID-19. She explained that the Administration has created “aggressive” policing systems to spot “misinformation” to be “flagged” for the social media companies.

The concern is obvious that this allows for a direct role of the government in a massive censorship program run by private companies. There have been repeated examples of the censoring of stories that were embarrassing or problematic for the Biden Administration. Even when Twitter expressed regret for the censoring of the Hunter Biden laptop story before the election, there was an immediate push back for greater censorship from Democrats.

The concern is that these companies are taking to heart calls from Democratic members for increased censorship on the platform. CEO Jack Dorsey previously apologized for censoring the Hunter Biden story before the election. However, rather than addressing the dangers of such censoring of news accounts, Senator Chris Coons pressed Dorsey to expand the categories of censored material to prevent people from sharing any views that he considers “climate denialism.” Likewise, Senator Richard Blumenthal seemed to take the opposite meaning from Twitter, admitting that it was wrong to censor the Biden story. Blumenthal said that he was “concerned that both of your companies are, in fact, backsliding or retrenching, that you are failing to take action against dangerous disinformation.” Accordingly, he demanded an answer to this question:

“Will you commit to the same kind of robust content modification playbook in this coming election, including fact checking, labeling, reducing the spread of misinformation, and other steps, even for politicians in the runoff elections ahead?”

TRUSTED NEWS INITIATIVE TO COMBAT SPREAD OF HARMFUL VACCINE DISINFORMATION – EBU

The Trusted News Initiative (TNI) has agreed to focus on combatting the spread of harmful vaccine disinformation, following its recent summit, chaired by BBC Director-General, Tim Davie.

The TNI is an industry collaboration of major news and global tech organizations* working together to stop the spread of disinformation where it poses risk of real-world harm. With the introduction of several possible new COVID-19 vaccines, there has been a rise of ‘anti-vaccine’ disinformation spreading online to millions of people.

Examples include widely shared memes which link falsehoods about vaccines to freedom and individual liberties. Other posts seek to downplay the risks of coronavirus and suggest there is an ulterior motive behind the development of a vaccine.

Whilst it is important to scrutinize the science behind new COVID-19 vaccines and give voice to legitimate concerns from people wondering what a coronavirus vaccine means for them, questions about levels of immunity and whether a vaccine is appropriate for those with chronic health conditions, it is vital that audiences know they can turn to sources they trust for accurate, impartial information.

TNI partners will alert each other to disinformation which poses an immediate threat to life so content can be reviewed promptly by platforms, whilst publishers ensure they don’t unwittingly republish dangerous falsehoods.

The TNI is already working together to tackle to spread of harmful coronavirus disinformation and previously has had success running a rapid alert system during the UK 2019 General Election, Myanmar and Taiwan 2020 General Elections and the US Presidential Election.

White House Says 1 in 5 COVID Cases in U.S. Last Week From Florida Alone – Newsweek

Florida accounted for one in five new COVID-19 cases reported in the United States last week, according to a White House adviser.

Jeff Zients, the administration’s coronavirus response coordinator, said at a virtual news conference on Friday that the Sunshine State accounted for 20 percent of the nation’s new cases.

“As the more transmissible Delta variant continues to spread across the country, we will likely continue to experience an increase in COVID cases in the weeks ahead, with these cases concentrated in communities with lower vaccination rates,” Zients said.

“In fact, just four states accounted for more than 40 percent of all cases in the past week, with one in five cases occurring in Florida alone,” Zients continued.

Data from the Florida Department of Health found the state’s test positivity rate over the past week was 11.5 percent. For the week starting July 9, the state recorded 45,603 new cases—nearly double the amount from the week prior.

Health officials reported 59 new virus-related deaths Friday from the past week. The cumulative death toll in the state is 38,388.

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

COVID-19 Lockdown in Uganda Increased Gender-Based Violence

Sydney tightens lockdown as Australia’s COVID-19 cases rise

A 20-year-old Ugandan athlete, who traveled to Japan for a pre-Olympics training, has gone missing from his hotel on Friday, officials told CNN.

Russia reports new daily record Covid-19 deaths

First case of coronavirus infection inside Olympic Village confirmed six days before Opening Ceremony

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Federal Judge Declares Obama-Era DACA Program Illegal

Judge Rejects Arizona Senate’s Motion to Keep Election Audit Records Private

Parents Sue DC Over Allowing Kids to be Vaccinated Without Parent’s Consent

Michigan Senate Repeals Emergency Powers Law, Whitmer Unable to Veto

Mask mandates are coming back as cases surge in all 50 states

About 4 in 100 COVID-19 hospitalized children may develop neurological complications, a study finds

CDC: COVID-19 Is a ‘Pandemic of the Unvaccinated’

COVID-19 patient discharged from hospital after 187 days

CDC finalizes order allowing unaccompanied children to enter US in exception to pandemic rule

Hospitals Discussing Overflow Care for COVID Patients Amid Increases. As the Delta variant spreads across the U.S., cases are up 70 percent over the last week with hospital admissions up 36 percent and deaths up 26 percent.

151 Dead, 563 Hospitalized in Illinois Breakthrough COVID Cases

US basketball player to miss Tokyo Olympics due to health and safety protocols

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks

Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?

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