Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 74.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 44.3 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 35,561
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 338
- JAMA Peds Retracts controversial study suggesting that masks may harm children
- Water-soluble vitamin E compounds directly inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication and synergize with remdesivir
- Fully vaccinated Americans may enter Canada as of mid-August
- The Vaccine Dividend
- Yellen sees ‘several more months of rapid inflation’ before easing, worries about housing impact
- Quick Smell Test May Help Screen for COVID
- Exploring the Gap Between Excess Mortality and COVID-19 Deaths in 67 Countries
- Global Consumer Confidence Hits Record High, but Regional Disparities Remain
- China’s GDP grew 7.9% in the second quarter; retail sales beat expectations
- Cutting Unemployment Insurance Does Not Result in Workers Returning to Restaurant Industry Jobs
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Global Consumer Confidence Hits Record High, but Regional Disparities Remain – The Conference Board
Global consumer confidence ticked up to another record high in the second quarter of 2021, according to The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey, as economic activity improved, mobility restrictions were loosened, vaccines were distributed, and COVID-19 cases declined in many regions. But concerns over health, economic recovery, and job prospects remained for many consumers worldwide amid an uneven reemergence from COVID-19.
The survey found that overall global consumer confidence rose slightly to 109 in Q2 2021 from 108 in Q1 (a figure above 100 is considered positive.) The global index now surpasses the 106 reading registered at the pandemic’s onset in Q1 2020 and is the highest recorded since the survey began in 2005. Confidence rose in 42 of 65 markets (65%) surveyed, with the strongest gains in regions like North America and Europe with relatively high vaccination rates. On the other hand, confidence declined in regions wrestling with new infections, low vaccine availability, and ongoing economic restrictions.
Dr. Makary: ‘There is no data’ to support Fauci’s call for masking small children – Fox
Fox News medical contributor Dr. Marty Makary told “Fox & Friends” Thursday “there is no data” supporting Dr. Fauci’s claim that kids over three years of age need to wear masks.
MARTY MAKARY: I’d love to see the data. And remember, Dr. Fauci is one who claims that he needs to see the data. But yet at the same time, sometimes the argument is used that things are just common sense. So we need to do it. You can’t flip back and forth to saying in a scientific way that certain things are common sense. Therefore, we need everyone to do it versus we need data for everyone to do it. I’d love to see the data.
Look, kids who are healthy are extremely low risk and constitute such a small minority of overall cases. 0.05 percent, that’s five-hundredths of one percent. Even though they’re 20 percent of the U.S. population. We’ve lost all sense of risk. It’s distorted. More kids die from the common cold. They need to be careful, especially if they have comorbid conditions. But there’s no data to support what Dr. Fauci is saying.
[editor’s note: also read MEDICAL EXPERTS: PUSH TO MASK, VACCINATE ALL CHILDREN ‘SENSATIONALIZED,’ ‘POLITICIZED’]
China’s GDP grew 7.9% in the second quarter; retail sales beat expectations – CNBC
- The country’s gross domestic product increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. That fell short of Reuters’ estimate of 8.1% growth.
- Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago, more than the expected 11% level forecast by Reuters.
- Industrial production grew by 8.3%, greater than the 7.8% Reuters estimate.
Yellen sees ‘several more months of rapid inflation’ before easing, worries about housing impact – CNBC
- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC on Thursday that she expects the U.S. economy will see “several more months of rapid inflation.”
- She expects prices ultimately will fall back to more normal levels, and cited market-based inflation measures as proof that longer-term expectations remain in check.
- However, she expressed concern about the impact on lower-income homebuyers at a time when housing prices are soaring.
Fully vaccinated Americans may enter Canada as of mid-August – NY Post
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday Canada could start allowing fully vaccinated Americans into Canada as of mid-August for non-essential travel and should be in a position to welcome fully vaccinated travelers from all countries by early September.
Trudeau spoke with leaders of Canada’s provinces and his office released a readout of the call. He noted that if Canada’s current positive path of vaccination rate and public health conditions continue the border can open.
“Canada would be in a position to welcome fully vaccinated travelers from all countries by early September,” the readout said. “He noted the ongoing discussions with the United States on reopening plans, and indicated that we could expect to start allowing fully vaccinated U.S. citizens and permanent residents into Canada as of mid-August for non-essential travel.”
Trudeau noted Canada continues to lead G20 countries in vaccination rates with approximately 80% of eligible Canadians vaccinated with their first dose and over 50% of eligible Canadians fully vaccinated. He said case numbers and severe illness continue to decline across the country as vaccination rates continue to increase.
JAMA Peds Retracts Much-Hyped Masks Study – MedPage
A controversial study suggesting that masks may harm children by exposing them to high carbon dioxide levels was retracted on Friday.
The research letter released in JAMA Pediatrics on June 30 had reported unacceptably high levels of carbon dioxide by German standards in air inside masks worn by children in a laboratory environment.
In the retraction notice, the journal editors cited “numerous scientific issues,” that also included questions over the applicability of the CO2 measurement device and the validity of the study conclusions.
“In their invited responses to these and other concerns, the authors did not provide sufficiently convincing evidence to resolve these issues, as determined by editorial evaluation and additional scientific review,” the notice read. “Given fundamental concerns about the study methodology, uncertainty regarding the validity of the findings and conclusions, and the potential public health implications, the editors have retracted this Research Letter.”
The study quickly fell under criticism after it was published. Joseph Allen, MPH, DSc, who studies the impact of carbon dioxide on human health at Harvard School of Public Health in Boston, called the study “terribly flawed” and predicted on Twitter that it would be retracted. His key complaint was that the study failed to account for the outside air that would flood in when the children inhaled.
Cutting Unemployment Insurance Does Not Result in Workers Returning to Restaurant Industry Jobs – OneFairWage
According to a new report from One Fair Wage, a national nonprofit that advocates on behalf of subminimum wage workers in the restaurant industry, and the UC Berkeley Food Labor Research Center, cutting unemployment insurance benefits does not result in workers returning to the restaurant industry. Out of 287 respondents in five states that cut unemployment benefits, 51% of workers said that, even with their benefits cut, they still would not be willing to return to work in restaurants without a livable wage.
Specifically, the report, titled HELP WANTED: The Impact (Or Lack Thereof) of Ending Unemployment Insurance on Restaurant Workers Willingness to Work for Subminimum Wages, found that:
With or without unemployment insurance, workers are leaving the restaurant industry and indicate that they would only return for a full, stable, livable wage. Among unemployed individuals who previously received unemployment benefits that were subsequently cut, nearly 60% (57%) are not considering returning to the service industry. The most common factor that would make them consider returning to the industry was a full, stable, livable wage (69%), followed by paid sick leave (63%), health benefits (63%), and less hostility and harassment in the workplace (56%).
Cutting unemployment insurance benefits does not result in most workers returning to work in restaurants for the same wages they received prior to the pandemic. Over half (51%) of workers who previously received unemployment benefits that were subsequently cut reported that even with their benefits taken away, they would only return to work in restaurants for a job with a livable wage. Only 16% of workers stated that they would return to work for any low-wage job once their benefits were cut. Over half (54%) of surveyed workers who received unemployment insurance and then lost it stated that the experience of receiving benefits increased their desire for a livable wage at their next job.
In comparing the responses of workers in the states that cut unemployment benefits to those of workers nationwide, workers from the states that cut benefits were actually slightly more likely than their counterparts in states where benefits were not cut to indicate that they were considering leaving the industry due to low wages and tips, and that the primary factor that would make them return would be a livable wage with tips on top. Regardless of whether workers had access to unemployment benefits or not, nearly 60% of all workers reported that they are considering leaving restaurants. Nearly 8 in 10 workers (79%) of workers in the states that cut workers’ benefits said they are leaving due to low wages and tips, compared to 77% in other states. And 80% of workers in the states that cut benefits said that the primary factor that would make them return to work in restaurants would be a full, stable livable wage, compared to 78% of workers in other states. Clearly, cutting unemployment insurance has not changed workers’ desire to leave the industry unless wages go up.
Of those who provide more context about the how access to unemployment insurance benefits affected them, many expressed that receiving benefits made them rethink returning to a subminimum wage job:
“Unemployment has been my life raft of safety. Without it I would have no idea what to do. It has kept me safe from exposure from COVID, allowed me to work on my education and health and opened up time and space to think about what I truly want out of life.”
“It has made me realize that I deserve better than a job that I make just enough to live day by day. That’s the thing: I wasn’t living paycheck to paycheck; I was living day to day. Sometimes I wouldn’t make enough to even get a roof for the night and would sleep in my car outside of my job…My decisions when it comes to being unemployed has nothing to do with getting ‘free money’ – it has to do with me saying, ‘I’d rather love myself and live without money and in a shelter instead of hate myself, my life, and have $100 in my pocket that won’t get me through one night.'”
The Vaccine Dividend – IHS Markit
Quick Smell Test May Help Screen for COVID – MedPage
A quick olfactory test showed promise as a COVID-19 screening tool in a pilot study.
The novel screen had a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 95.2% in detecting COVID-19, compared with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing from nasopharyngeal swabs, reported Carol Yan, MD, of the University of California San Diego, and co-authors.
When fatigue as a COVID-19 symptom was included with olfactory test results, sensitivity rose to 93.8% and specificity was 89.8%, the team reported in a JAMA Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery research letter.
Smell loss is one of the earliest and strongest predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection, Yan and colleagues noted. “Compared with objective testing, subjective olfactory assessments significantly underreport olfactory dysfunction.”
Water-soluble vitamin E compounds directly inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication and synergize with remdesivir – News-Medical
Researchers in the United States have shown that water-soluble derivatives of vitamin E (α-tocopherol) exhibit potent antiviral activity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the agent that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Kevin Harrod from the University of Alabama at Birmingham and colleagues found that the compounds synergized with the antiviral drug remdesivir to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) – an enzyme that is crucial for transcription and replication of the viral genome.
Although intense research efforts to rapidly identify effective antiviral therapies have largely focused on repurposing existing drugs, only remdesivir has so far been authorized as a COVID-19 treatment, and its clinical benefits are modest.
“Here, we employed a novel artificial intelligence query of FDA-approved compounds for repurposing as antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 and identify tocopherol derivatives with potent antiviral activity and synergy with remdesivir,” writes Harrod and colleagues.
The team says the findings have important implications, given that many tocopherol derivatives are already considered safe for use in humans.
A pre-print version of the research paper is available on the bioRxiv* server, while the article undergoes peer review.
Exploring the Gap Between Excess Mortality and COVID-19 Deaths in 67 Countries – JAMA
During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, a surge in overall deaths has been recorded in many countries, most of them likely attributable to COVID-19. However, COVID-19 confirmed mortality (CCM) is considered an unreliable indicator of COVID-19 deaths because of national health care systems’ different capacities to correctly identify people who actually died of the disease.1,2 Excess mortality (EM) is a more comprehensive and robust indicator because it relies on all-cause mortality instead of specific causes of death.3 We analyzed the gap between the EM and CCM in 67 countries to determine the extent to which official data on COVID-19 deaths might be considered reliable.
Most of the 67 countries experienced an increase in mortality during 2020 (Table below). Among countries with increased mortality (ie, those located above 0 on the y-axis in the Figure below), a small number appeared under the identity line, showing lower-than-expected mortality after subtracting COVID-19 deaths. Countries located above the identity line can be visually classified into 2 groups: 1 with several Latin American and East European countries, which exhibit a large gap between EM and CCM (eg, Mexico, 212 excess deaths vs 96 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population); the other, more heterogeneous group showed a moderate EM beyond CCM (eg, Greece, 57 excess deaths vs 45 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population). Countries with negative EM also had very low CCM and were mainly located in East Asia. The lowest figures of EM and CCM generally belonged to countries with higher testing capacity (in green) and the largest differences between EM and CCM to countries with poorer testing capacity (in red).
Dr. Gottlieb says U.S. is ‘vastly underestimating’ level of Covid delta spread – CNBC
- “I think we’re vastly underestimating the level of delta spread right now,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday.
- The former FDA chief said vaccinated people who may become infected likely aren’t seeking out testing due to mild symptoms.
- “There’s no clear evidence that this is more pathogenic, that it’s causing more serious infections. It’s clearly more virulent, it’s clearly far more contagious,” he said.
Why Was a Major Study on Ivermectin for COVID-19 Just Retracted? – GRFTR
Questions about potential data fabrication, plagiarism, and ethical breaches led to the withdrawal of a study that formed a critical component of the pro-ivermectin case.
Grftr News has discovered that the authors of an oft-cited study purporting to show a strong benefit when using ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19 may have fabricated their data and plagiarised large portions of their paper. The preprint paper had provided the most positive evidence for using ivermectin to treat COVID-19 and had been cited in several other high-profile studies. After Grftr News contacted Research Square (the company hosting the preprint) alerting them of our findings, they swiftly removed the paper citing “ethical concerns.”
The study had formed a crucial piece of evidence in the pro-ivermectin case and its removal largely destroys (the current) scientific case for using the drug in COVID-19 care. Grftr News has reached out to the paper’s authors for comment but had not received a reply by the time of publication.
Ivermectin has long been used to treat parasitic worms in humans and sees frequent use for similar purposes in livestock and is very effective for both purposes. In contrast, little good evidence exists to justify its use in treating COVID-19. Both the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) advise against its use. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization only recommends its use within clinical trials.
To date, much of the evidence supporting ivermectin’s use in treating COVID-19 has been weak and inconsistent. A few studies have found a positive effect for ivermectin, with many others finding no effect.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Death toll from European floods passes 115 as receding waters reveal scope of devastation
Freedom or folly? UK’s end to mandatory masks sows confusion
About 23 million children worldwide — many of them poor — missed out on routine vaccinations last year.Death toll from European floods passes 115 as receding waters reveal scope of devastation
Myanmar’s military junta has taken control of the country’s oxygen supply, firing at people who try to buy their own.
China was critical of the American presence in Afghanistan. But as U.S. troops exit, Beijing is worried about the region’s instability.
Mass Protests Erupt Across Greece As Government Bans Unvaccinated From Public Spaces
COVID-19 is still a “public health emergency of international concern,” according to WHO. And in a grave warning Thursday, the organization said to be on high alert for new and dangerous variants.
Study finds vaccine hesitancy lower in poorer countries
COVID-19 Deaths in Africa Surge 43% Week-on-Week, WHO Says
U.K. Lift of Lockdown as Over 51K New COVID Cases Reported
China Promises $3 Billion to Aid Poorer Countries Obtain COVID Vaccines
COVID Origins Investigators Not Allowed to Take Info Out of China. The World Health Organization has urged Beijing to hand over vital COVID-19 data to inform investigators about the origins of the virus.
Moscow erases requiring proof of COVID vaccine to eat inside restaurants
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Apple employees threaten to quit as company takes hard line stance on remote work
Microsoft said Thursday it has blocked tools developed by an Israeli hacker-for-hire company that were used to spy on more than 100 people around the world, including politicians, human rights activists, journalists, academics and political dissidents.
Dr. Vivek Murthy, the surgeon general, called misinformation about the virus and the vaccines an “urgent threat to public health.”
Los Angeles County will require people to wear masks indoors regardless of their vaccination status.
The M.L.B. postponed a Yankees-Red Sox game after three Yankees pitchers tested positive.
When the pandemic hit, some tech workers fled San Francisco. They’re back — and so are traffic jams.
Tesla’s Table Salt Patent Could Be a Game Changer
Most Democrats Favor Mandatory Masks, COVID-19 Vaccine for School Children
Los Angeles is bringing back its mask mandate this weekend, after a spike in cases tied to the Delta variant.
CVS is pulling two of its aloe vera products over contamination with the carcinogen benzene.
The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will consider adding booster doses for immunocompromised people to the COVID vaccine clinical considerations.
Moderna SARS-CoV-2 vaccine highly effective against alpha and beta variants
About 4 in 100 COVID-19 hospitalized children may develop neurological complications, a study finds
No sign of COVID-19 vaccine in breast milk
Wildfire smoke exposure linked to increased risk of contracting COVID-19
2 NFL Teams Remain Under 50% Vaccinated
White House: Florida accounts for 20 percent of all new COVID-19 infections
CDC advisory panel to consider third COVID-19 shot for immunocompromised
Vaccine Passport: The Government Can’t Share Your Data, But Airlines Can
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
09 July 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Decline Continues
Preliminary July 2021 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Declined
May 2021 Business Inventories Remain Normal For Times Of Economic Expansion
Headline Retail Sales Marginally Improved in June 2021
Fiscal Austerity Intensifies The Increase In Inequality After Pandemics
Private Sector Is China’s Main Economic Driver
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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