Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 73.8 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 56.0 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 38,236
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 393
• WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report
• WHO Asks China for ‘Transparent’ Information, Cooperation in COVID-19 Origin Investigation
• Confusion over Delta
• What Evidence Do We Need to Move Forward With COVID Boosters?
• Where are French people catching the virus?
• Canada’s Taking It Slow On Reopening Its Border To Travelers From The U.S.
• Inflation is running hot. What comes next matters most
• Short chain fatty acids have potential therapeutic applications against COVID-19
• Component derived from turmeric essential oil exhibits neuroprotective effects
• Plus many more headlines …

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.

source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.

Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed

Where are French people catching the virus? – EurekAlert

Analysis of index cases’ circumstances of infection during the curfew period:

44% of infected individuals could identify the person considered to be the source of infection, 21% suspected they had been infected at a specific event, but could not identify the person who was the source of infection, and 35% did not know how they had been infected.

A very large majority (97%) of index cases who responded to this questionnaire self-isolated, but only 54% on symptom onset, and 64% on discovering that they had been in contact with an infected case, where symptoms or discovery of contact with an infected case were the only warning signs.

As regards infections in households (35% of infections where the person considered to be the source was known), most of these adults were infected by their spouses (64% of cases). The fact that children are asymptomatic or present with few symptoms when infected may explain why they were often not identified as the person considered to be the source of the infection.

As regards infections outside households (65% of infections where the person considered to be the source was known), the chief source of infections was family (33%), followed by the workplace (29%), and friends and acquaintances (21%). Meals played a key role in infections among family, friends and acquaintances, and, to a lesser degree, at work. Shared offices were also a major cause of infections in the workplace.

Confusion over Delta – New York Times

There are two basic questions to ask about any variant of the Covid-19 virus: Is it more contagious than earlier versions of the virus? And is it more severe?

When a variant is more contagious, it leads to a rise in the number of infections, especially among the unvaccinated. When a variant is more severe, it causes worse symptoms for the average person who gets the virus and leads to a greater percentage of cases that result in hospitalization or death.

It is easy to confuse these two different concepts when a variant — like Delta — begins spreading. If the variant is more contagious, it often appears to be more severe as well because the increase in caseloads leads to an increase in the raw number of hospitalizations and deaths, as Dr. Robert Wachter of the University of California, San Francisco, explained to me.

In response, journalists and some experts talk about the new variant being “worse,” “riskier” or “more dangerous” — broad concepts that muddy the difference between contagiousness and severity. “Part of the problem is imprecision in language,” Dr. Rebecca Wurtz, an infectious-disease expert at the University of Minnesota, said.

The difference between the two concepts is important. If a new variant is not actually more severe, it doesn’t present a greater threat to a typical person who contracts Covid. Vaccinated people would remain protected. For children too young to be vaccinated, serious Covid symptoms would still be exceedingly rare — rarer than many other everyday risks, like riding in a car — and still concentrated among children with other health problems.

After the Alpha variant began spreading late last year, many people assumed that it was both more contagious and more severe. The data soon told a different story, though: Alpha seems to be only more contagious.

Now the story may be repeating itself with Delta. It is significantly more contagious than even Alpha by almost every measure. It does not appear to be more severe, based on the data available so far.

… Janet Baseman, a University of Washington epidemiologist, said: “I have not seen compelling evidence that the Delta variant is more severe.” Dr. Paul Sax of Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston told me, “This sense of greater disease severity is more anecdotal than driven by actual data.” Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research said, “I don’t think it makes kids sicker.”

Dr. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania said that he did not think Delta required vaccinated parents to behave differently than they did a few weeks ago. Richterman has young children himself, and his family has not changed its behavior, he said.

A good way to understand Delta is to look to England, where the variant has been circulating widely since May, longer than in the U.S.

If Delta were more severe than earlier versions of the virus, the percentage of cases leading to hospitalization or death should be rising. They’re not, as you can see in these two charts:

… The average severity of Covid declined in the spring, thanks to England’s mass vaccination program. (The vaccines reduce severe Covid cases even more sharply than total cases.) Since the spring, severity has remained in the same tight range. The lines on those charts would probably have started rising in May or June if Delta were more severe.

In many ways, this picture should not be surprising. It is highly unusual for a virus variant to be both more contagious and more severe.

What Evidence Do We Need to Move Forward With COVID Boosters? – MedPage

On Monday, employees of Pfizer met with high level executives in the Biden administration to discuss the role of boosters — a.k.a. a third vaccination with an mRNA vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Some have speculated that, as with the first two doses, the emergency use authorization pathway will again be used to market boosters. With the rise of the Delta variant and others, enthusiasm in the media and the Twitter commentariat for boosters is growing. However, there are certain criteria that must be met before we jump on the booster bandwagon. Some of these criteria apply at home, and others apply abroad.

As a general rule, if your goal is to avoid variants — or mutated versions of a virus — you want the virus to replicate less. When it comes to variants, it doesn’t matter where the virus does the replicating. In a globally connected world, it is only a matter of time before an advantageous mutation finds its way to all parts of the world. As such, we in the U.S., are only as safe as the least safe place in the world.

What this means is that before we shift our manufacturing capacity to develop boosters for the current variants, we must make a real effort to ensure that the vaccines we do have get distributed to the greatest number of global citizens who will take them. I argued in April that, practically, this means that children in high income nations should be vaccinated after older citizens globally – this same logic extends to boosters.

… Here in the U.S., there are also metrics that need to be met before we contemplate widespread dosing of hundreds of millions of people with booster shots. Specifically: show me the data! I have no doubt that a third mRNA shot will lead to higher neutralizing antibody titers. For that matter, I would guess six shots would outperform three on that metric. But the burden of evidence to accept boosters is not simply a change in antibody titer — or even demonstration of improved titers for rare variants.

We must show that boosters improve clinical endpoints before we ask Americans to roll up their sleeves again. A large randomized trial of vaccinated individuals powered for reduction in symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 or (better yet) severe COVID-19 is needed to justify the harms and inconvenience of boosters. If such a trial simply cannot be powered, or takes a very long time, due to the sparsity of serious infection in the U.S., then the argument for emergency use authorization is inherently flawed. When there’s too little disease to run the definitive trial, you are, by definition, no longer in an emergency. One way to solve this problem might be to deliver boosters only in elderly individuals or those who are immunocompromised. Here, a trial measuring COVID-19 outcomes may be possible.

Component derived from turmeric essential oil exhibits neuroprotective effects – News-Medical

Researchers from Kumamoto University, Japan have found that a component derived from turmeric essential oil, aromatic turmerone (ar-turmerone), and its derivatives act directly on dopaminergic nerves to create a neuroprotective effect on tissue cultures of a Parkinson’s disease model. This appears to be due to enhanced cellular antioxidant potency from the activation of Nrf2. The researchers believe that the ar-turmerone derivatives identified in this study can be used as new therapeutic agents for Parkinson’s disease.

Parkinson’s disease is a neurodegenerative disease caused by the selective death of dopaminergic neurons that transmit information from the substantia nigra of the midbrain to the striatum which results in decreased dopamine production. Symptoms include limb tremors, immobility, muscle rigidity, and other movement disorders. Treatments, such as dopamine supplements, are currently available but there still no way to inhibit dopaminergic neurodegeneration.

Previous studies have reported that the inflammatory response caused by the activation of microglia (cells responsible for immune function in the brain) is observed in the substantia nigra of the midbrain of Parkinson’s disease patients. Further experiments designed to mimic the in vivo state of the midbrain (midbrain slice culture) revealed that microglial activation triggers the selective degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra, and that nitric oxide (NO) derived from activated microglia was involved in the neurodegeneration. These findings suggest that compounds with anti-inflammatory effects on microglia may suppress dopaminergic degeneration.

Canada’s Taking It Slow On Reopening Its Border To Travelers From The U.S. Here’s Why – NPR

Canadian Minister of Health Patty Hajdu warned in late June that with the delta variant “posing some significant challenges” in countries such as the U.K., “we need to be very cautious.” The delta variant already makes up more than 70% of new cases in the province of Ontario, which includes Toronto, Canada’s largest city.

“We need to reduce infections because we don’t know what long COVID does,” says Kelley Lee of Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, British Columbia, who leads a pandemics and borders research group. That group is advocating for tougher quarantine rules in Canada, raising the specter of new shutdowns. But other experts suggest that such severe moves are unlikely.

Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens, in southern Ontario, says Canada should quickly ease restrictions for fully vaccinated travelers. Dilkens can see the Detroit skyline, a mile and a half away, from his window in City Hall. His brother lives in Michigan, but he says they haven’t seen each other in a long time.

“The impact of the border closure really is amplified in border cities,” he says.

As vaccination rates tick up, travel restrictions that made sense earlier in the pandemic have begun to grate on his constituents. Three-quarters of eligible Canadians have now received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, a higher percentage than in the U.S., and more than 40% are fully vaccinated.

“Those who are separated … need to reunite for funerals, for births of the first grandchild, for all sorts of life events that happen,” Dilkens says. “If you’re fully vaccinated now, it’s becoming less acceptable to have the border closed for fully vaccinated people.”

… For now, restrictions on cross-border travel remain popular with many Canadians. Half of respondents in a Nanos Research poll this month favored keeping border travel restrictions in place until this fall or even next year.

“I understand why people feel that way,” says Sumon Chakrabarti, a physician in Ontario. “You don’t want to just open up the floodgates.”

But, he says, Canada has reached a phase in the pandemic that allows for serious consideration of the trade-offs of border policies. “Because so much of the population is protected,” Chakrabarti says, “we can now manage this at a medical level, rather than having to do this at a border level.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated last week that vaccinated travelers will be admitted before those who are not vaccinated, but the government has said a full reopening could require 75% of Canadians — or more than 85% of the eligible population — to be fully vaccinated.

Inflation is running hot. What comes next matters most – CNN

US prices continue to march higher, triggering concerns among economists, policymakers and business leaders about the sustainability of the post-pandemic recovery.

What’s happening: The US Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge, jumped 0.9% in June, the largest one-month increase in 13 years. Over the past 12 months, prices were up 5.4%.

Gas prices rose 45.1% compared to a year earlier. Food prices were 2.4% higher, while prices for dining out rallied 4.2%. But even stripping out volatile food and energy prices, so-called “core CPI” rose 4.5% — the largest 12-month increase in that closely-watched measure in 30 years.Details, details: Used car prices have skyrocketed more than 45% over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, airfare has increased almost 25% and hotel and motel prices rose 15% — though those prices are still below June 2019 levels.

… On one side is team optimist. Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial, told my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore that “underlying inflation remains under control,” and that comparisons to costs a year ago are making the situation appear worse than it actually is. He thinks this effect will “wash out of the data in the near term.”

On the other side are the skeptics, whose ranks appear to be swelling.

“Inflation could be worse than people think,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told analysts on Tuesday. “I think it’ll be a little bit worse than what the Fed thinks. I don’t think it’s only temporary.”

Economists at Citi point out that rising wages, the result of employers struggling to fill open jobs, remain “one of the clearest indications that underlying inflationary pressures could be more persistent.” They see the increase in food prices away from home as “a sign that higher labor costs are being fed through to higher consumer prices.”

WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report – Washington Post

The World Health Organization said it will fix several “unintended errors” in a joint reportwith China on the origins of the coronavirus crisis and will look into other possible discrepancies.

In response to questions from The Washington Post, the WHO is changing the virus sequence IDs associated with three of the 13 early patients listed in a chart in the report and will clarify that the first family cluster was not linked to the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, a spokesman said.

The WHO did not explain why a map in the annexes of the WHO-China joint report appears to show the first case on one side of the Yangtze River, while the Wuhan government had announced last year that the first patient, who fell ill Dec. 8, 2019, lived on the other side of the river, in Wuchang district.

Tarik Jasarevic, a WHO spokesman, said in an email that the agency cannot comment on what the Wuhan government announced last year, but the question of where the first-known patient lived relative to the river was not relevant to competing hypotheses about the origin of the virus. The issue is not important, he wrote, because “the current first known patient is most probably not the first case.”

Jasarevic said mistakes in the report were due to “editing errors,” but they did not affect “the data analysis process, nor the conclusions.”

Here’s why some vaccine skeptics changed their minds and got COVID shots, poll says – Miami Herald

Around one-fifth of Americans who said in an earlier poll that they were hesitant or weren’t going to get COVID vaccines ended up changing their minds, according to a recent survey.

A Kaiser Family Foundation poll released Tuesday found that 21% of people who said in January that they were waiting to get shots, would only get vaccinated if required or definitely wouldn’t are now vaccinated. The survey was conducted June 15-23 with a sample size of 878 adults and a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Seventeen percent of those who are now vaccinated despite expressing hesitancy in January said they were convinced to do so by a family member, 10% said they were persuaded by a health care provider or doctor and 5% said they were convinced by a close friend.

Sixty-five percent of vaccinated adults, including some who were vaccine skeptics, said in the survey that they have attempted to persuade family members or close friends to get shots.

“Seeing their friends and family members get vaccinated without serious side effects, talking to family members about being able to safely visit, and conversations with their personal doctors about their own risks were all persuasive factors for these individuals,” researchers wrote. “A small but meaningful share also say the easing of restrictions for vaccinated people was a factor in their decision to get a vaccine.”

… The poll found that vaccination status was largely determined by previous intent. For instance, 92% who said previously that they would get inoculated “as soon as possible” have gotten at least one dose of a COVID vaccine while 54% of people who said they wanted to “wait and see” have gotten at least one shot. Meanwhile, 76% of those who said they would “only get vaccinated if required” or “definitely not” get COVID shots still aren’t vaccinated.

Around a quarter of respondents who said they would get shots “as soon as possible” or were going to “wait and see” still aren’t vaccinated in the latest poll. One in ten said they will “only get vaccinated if required” or “definitely not” get vaccinated, with many saying they were worried about the side effects.

The poll found that among those who still aren’t vaccinated:

• 21% said they were worried about side effects.
• 16% said the “vaccine was too new, too unknown or not tested enough.”
• 12% said they didn’t think they needed the shots.
• 7% said they wanted to “wait and see.”
• 7% said they don’t normally get vaccines and don’t trust the shot.
• 7% have a medical condition that doesn’t let them get COVID shot.
• 7% said COVID isn’t as bad or that the vaccine is worse.

Short chain fatty acids have potential therapeutic applications against COVID-19, study suggests – News-Medical

Both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 viruses bear “spike proteins” which get inside our cells by binding to a protein called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) that is found in our cells. However, the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein has been found to have a higher binding affinity (10 to 20 times that of SARS-CoV) to ACE2, thus establishing a link between the pathogen and the protein.

Interestingly, recent studies have shown that patients with COVID-19 who have rhinosinusitis (i.e., inflammation of the nose) have a low risk of hospitalization. Moreover, the expression of ACE2 was reduced in patients with rhinosinusitis. Coincidentally, another study has shown that short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), produced by bacteria in the gut have beneficial effects in allergy and viral infections. These separate findings prompted an investigation of the effect that SCFAs in the nasal cavity against SARS-CoV-2 infection by scientists from the University of Fukui, Japan, led by Dr. Tetsuji Takabayashi.

In a new study published in the American Journal of Rhinology & Allergy, the scientists attempted to understand the effect of SCFAs on ACE2 expression in the nasal passage, and the potential impact on COVID-19 infection.

This is the first report that short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) effectively reduce the ACE2 levels in human airway epithelial cells.”

Dr. Tetsuji Takabayashi

Pandemic layoffs pushed hospitality workers to leave industry – EurekAlert

The psychological toll of losing a job due to COVID-19 caused many young hotel and restaurant workers to consider changing careers, according to a Washington State University study.

In the study, the laid-off and fully furloughed hospitality employees reported being financially strained, depressed, socially isolated and panic stricken over the pandemic’s effects, leading to increased intention to leave the industry all together. The intention to leave was particularly strong among women and younger workers.

“It’s a warning sign for my industry that the younger generation was really hit hard,” said Chun-Chu Chen, an assistant professor in WSU’s School of Hospitality Business Management and lead author on the study in the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management. “We’ve already witnessed that as the hospitality business is recovering and trying to hire more people, they cannot find the workers they want. There are many factors for that, but one may be that because of the pandemic, people think that hospitality is no longer an industry they want to work for.”

Chen added that previous research has indicated that younger workers may not have as strong of a career identity as more experienced employees, making it easier for them to change careers.

WHO Asks China for ‘Transparent’ Information, Cooperation in COVID-19 Origin Investigation – Newsweek

According to the World Health Organization’s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the U.N. health agency based in Geneva asked China “to be transparent, open and cooperate, especially on the information, raw data that we asked for at the early days of the pandemic,” the Associated Press reported.

Tedros said there was a “premature push” to rule out the theory that the coronavirus originated in a government lab located in Wuhan—where the first cases were recorded. The theory was first dismissed by WHO in a March report that deemed it “extremely unlikely.”

“I was a lab technician myself,” Tedros said. “I’m an immunologist, and I have worked in the lab, and lab accidents happen. It’s common.”

In recent months, the idea that the pandemic started somehow in a laboratory—and perhaps involved an engineered virus—has gained traction, especially with President Joe Biden ordering a review of U.S. intelligence to assess the possibility in May.

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Nearly 3,000 guests, crew disembark cruise in Singapore after positive Covid case left them confined in cabins

Vaccine deliveries rising as delta virus variant slams Asia

American diplomats are escalating a charm offensive with Central Asian leaders this week as they work to secure a close-by spot to respond to any resurgence of outside militants in Afghanistan after the U.S. military withdraws

Heathrow Passenger Numbers Remain Almost 90% Down From Pre-Pandemic Levels

China economic growth slowed in second quarter after record start to 2021

Protests hit Athens and Paris over new coronavirus restrictions, vaccine mandates

French Citizens Riot In Response To Plan To Mandatory Vaccine Passports

France Considering Fining Businesses Over $53K for COVID Violations

South African Army ‘Activates’ All Reserve Members Amid Worsening Social Unrest

“Herd immunity” not responsible for Sweden’s control of COVID-19, say researchers

WHO chief: ‘Premature’ to rule out COVID-19 lab leak theory

Melbourne locking down for five days amid surge in cases

Tokyo COVID-19 cases at six-month high ahead of Olympics

6 New COVID Cases Reported Among Olympic Athlete, Staffer and Contractors

North Korea Reports Shortage of Medicine, Doctors in Rare Admission

Germany Accuses China of Distributing Vaccines With ‘Political Demands’

Spain’s National Lockdown Ruled Unconstitutional, Win for Far-Right Party

COVID Cases Rise by 10% Worldwide, 3% Increase in Deaths in Last Week: WHO

Music festival in the Netherlands leads to over 1,000 Covid infections

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Miami Herald: Passenger booted from Royal Caribbean cruise says she doesn’t have COVID-19.VICE: MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule..

Drug overdose deaths in the U.S. rose nearly 30 percent last year, as the pandemic disrupted treatment and increased isolation.

Fed Chairman Suggests That Bitcoin Could Become Obsolete If U.S. Digital Currency Existed

Yet another major heat wave is set to roast the western U.S. and Canada by the weekend

Alabama military base is first in the U.S. to require vaccination proof amid rising covid-19 rates

Moon ‘wobble’ and climate change could mean ‘double whammy’ of flooding in 2030s, NASA warns

A California woman, the first in the U.S., faces federal charges for selling fake COVID-19 vaccination cards.

Most Neutrogena and Aveeno spray sunscreens are under recall after Johnson & Johnson found benzene during testing.

A draft bill to legalize cannabis proposes to expunge federal non-violent marijuana crimes and move oversight from the Drug Enforcement Administration to the FDA. Yet President Joe Biden is probably not on board.

In 2020, drug overdose deaths jumped nearly 30% from 2019, breaking records.

Professional societies in infectious disease agreed that healthcare facilities should require employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signs a bill that prevents schools and colleges from requiring vaccines that haven’t been fully approved by the FDA.

Hospital systems like the Cleveland Clinic and Mount Sinai and private insurers are putting their own blocks to aducanumab (Aduhelm) in place, despite FDA approval.

PURE Study Points Finger at Processed, Fatty Foods in IBD

Union Pacific Railroad confirmed the suspension from the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, and Tacoma, saying it is necessary to relieve the “significant congestion at our inland intermodal terminals, most notably in Chicago

Full intensity heparin has value in treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Red state, blue state, twin outbreak: Behind Wyoming and Colorado’s anomalous covid spikes

Should we be concerned about the SARS-CoV-2 Lambda variant?

Could new strains of COVID evolve in farm animals or pets?

A pencil graphite biosensor that detects SARS-CoV-2

Black, Latinx people confident in COVID-19 safety precautions but skeptical about vaccines

Heart problems resolve in majority of kids with COVID inflammatory syndrome

Early Heparin Treatment Linked to Lower COVID-19 Mortality

COVID-19 sniffing dogs being deployed in Massachusetts

Biden to host Merkel as German leader exits world stage

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks

June 2021 Import Sea Container Growth Continues At A Strong Pace

10 July 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Decline Continues

June 2021 Headline Industrial Production Improves

June 2021 Import Year-over-Year Inflation ‘Declines’ To +11.2%

July 2021 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Index Declined Again

July 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Index Surges

10 July 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Continues To Modestly Decline

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