Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 12.0 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 8.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 23,549
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 714
- Fighting COVID with COVID
- The anticoagulant drug could treat COVID-19’s emerging variants
- Will the US’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign be undermined by novel SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern?
- There is a clear relationship between a state’s Covid death rate over the past week and its overall vaccination rate
- Houston Breakout of Delta COVID Variant Should Be ‘Wake-Up Call,’ Virologist Says
- Lambda Variant’s ‘Unusual’ Mutations May Make It Resistant to Vaccines
- Odds of COVID Death Rose When Hospital Cases Surged
- Study quantifies the impact of loneliness in old age on life and health expectancy
- Why Is NASA Working So Hard To Learn How To Defend The Earth From Giant Asteroids?
- Nine Countries Reject Global Minimum Tax Deal
- Plus many more headlines …
​
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus1.htm’); ?>
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Will the US’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign be undermined by novel SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern? – News-Medical
New research from Arizona State University, USA, uses a novel mathematical model to predict the impact of vaccination and vaccine-induced cross-protection on the B.1.1.7 variant and other SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the US as of June 2021. The study has been published in medRxiv* preprint server, while it undergoes peer review.
The current study has suggested a few conditions under which a new variant could increase the number of COVID-19 cases across the US. These conditions are as follows:
(i) the vaccine coverage against the wild strain is low (roughly < 50%)
(ii) the variant is much more transmissible (e.g., twice more transmissible) than the wild-type strain
(iii) the level of cross-protection offered by the vaccine is relatively low (e.g., less than 70%)
Numerical simulations showed that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant is unlikely to become dominant in the US if its transmission rate is moderately higher (i.e., 1.56% more infectious than the wild strain). Further, if at least 66% of the US population is fully vaccinated, with the three approved vaccines developed by Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson, a moderate level of cross-protection against the new variant would prevail.
Fighting COVID with COVID – EurekAlert
What if the COVID-19 virus could be used against itself? Researchers at Penn State have designed a proof-of-concept therapeutic that may be able to do just that. The team designed a synthetic defective SARS-CoV-2 virus that is innocuous but interferes with the real virus’s growth, potentially causing the extinction of both the disease-causing virus and the synthetic virus.
“In our experiments, we show that the wild-type [disease-causing] SARS-CoV-2 virus actually enables the replication and spread of our synthetic virus, thereby effectively promoting its own decline,” said Marco Archetti, associate professor of biology, Penn State. “A version of this synthetic construct could be used as a self-promoting antiviral therapy for COVID-19.”
Archetti explained that when a virus attacks a cell, it attaches to the cell’s surface and injects its genetic material into the cell. The cell is then tricked into replicating the virus’s genetic material and packaging it into virions, which burst from the cell and go off to infect other cells.
‘Defective interfering (DI)’ viruses, which are common in nature, contain large deletions in their genomes that often affect their ability to replicate their genetic material and package it into virions. However, DI genomes can perform these functions if the cell they’ve infected also harbors genetic material from a wild-type virus. In this case, a DI genome can hijack a wild-type genome’s replication and packaging machinery.
“These defective genomes are like parasites of the wild-type virus,” said Archetti, explaining that when a DI genome utilizes of a wild-type genome’s machinery, it also can impair the wild-type genome growth.
‘Please take this seriously‘ – New York Times
The spread of the Delta variant in relatively unvaccinated parts of the U.S. is getting worse.
Nationwide, the number of new Covid-19 cases is holding steady. But that steadiness hides two dueling realities, in two different Americas.
In many urban and suburban communities, Covid continues to plummet. The rate of new daily cases has fallen below three per 100,000 residents in large cities like Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Washington. As a point of comparison, the national rate of new daily cases peaked last winter above 75 per 100,000 people.
But in less populated areas – which tend to be more politically conservative and skeptical of vaccines – the virus is now surging, largely from the contagious Delta variant. The states with the worst outbreaks are Arkansas and Missouri (each with more than 16 new daily cases per 100,000 people) followed by Florida (10), Nevada (10), Wyoming (nine) and Utah (eight).
If these outbreaks were concentrated among younger people, it would be less worrisome, because Covid, including the Delta variant, is overwhelmingly mild for children and young adults. Yet even many middle-aged and older adults are not vaccinated in parts of the U.S. They are catching the virus as a result, and some are dying.
There is a clear relationship between a state’s Covid death rate over the past week and its overall vaccination rate:
[editor’s note: also read Dr. Fauci: Where to expect new Covid surges in the U.S.-and what it means for mask-wearing, other restrictions]
Lambda Variant’s ‘Unusual’ Mutations May Make It Resistant to Vaccines: Researchers – Epoch Times
Scientists are concerned that a newly labeled COVID-19 variant, first detected in Peru, may be resistant to COVID-19 vaccines due to “unusual” mutations.
Researchers from the University of Chile in Santiago said in a study published in a preprint last week that the variant has “a considerable potential to become a variant of concern.”
“Our data show for the first time that mutations present in the spike protein of the Lambda variant confer escape to neutralizing antibodies and increased infectivity,” wrote researchers in the paper that has yet to be peer-reviewed.
The Lambda variant, also known as C.37, is believed to have first emerged in Peru in August last year, but has only been recognized as a potential global threat in recent weeks, with the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring it a variant of interest on June 17 after it appeared in several countries simultaneously.
The WHO said the variant’s “neutralizing antibodies” could increase its transmissibility or potentially increase its resistance. It was “associated with substantive rates of community transmission in multiple countries,” it said.
Delta variant makes up more than half of Covid cases in U.S., CDC says – Politico
The more-transmissible Delta Covid-19 strain accounted for more than half of the coronavirus cases in the U.S. between June 20 and July 3, according to new data the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released on Tuesday.
A CDC spokesperson told POLITICO surveillance data indicated the Delta variant jumped from 30.4 percent of cases for the two-week period ending June 19 to 51.7 percent between June 20 and July 3.
The sharp jump underscores the extent to which the Delta variant has spread throughout the country and raises questions about how the Biden administration plans to contain it at the national level. The Delta strain represented more than 80 percent of cases across Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska between June 20 and July 3, according to the new CDC projections.
The administration is struggling to increase the vaccination rate in southern and some western states. While the number of doses administered edged up slightly in recent days, the overall national vaccination rate has plateaued. About 55 percent of Americans age 12 and older are fully vaccinated, according to CDC data.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky warned last week that the Delta variant was a growing threat to the unvaccinated population and that it could eclipse the Covid-19 Alpha variant in the coming weeks. “Looking state by state and county by country, it is clear communities where people remain unvaccinated are communities that are vulnerable,” Walensky told reporters.
Nine Countries Reject Global Minimum Tax Deal, Sending It Down Rocky Road to Completion – Miami Herald
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is fighting to keep its COVID-19 cruise regulations in place and warned a federal judge that without them, there is increased risk of COVID-19 spread in the U.S.
On Tuesday, the CDC appealed a federal judge’s order in a lawsuit against the agency brought by Gov. Ron DeSantis that will turn its regulations for how cruise companies can operate in Florida during the pandemic into mere recommendations. The regulations require cruise ships to have COVID-19 testing capabilities aboard, perform test cruises if less than 95% of crew and passengers are vaccinated, and secure evacuation agreements with local hospitals in the U.S. cities they visit, among other things.
The June 18 order from U.S. District Judge Steven Merryday of the Middle District of Florida said the CDC has not provided enough clear justification for its “conditional sail order” – a framework of regulations dictating how cruises can restart in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic – and is causing Florida to miss out on tax dollars generated by the cruise industry. The order was a win for Gov. DeSantis and Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody who brought the case in April.
Merryday’s order turns the regulations into recommendations, similar to those in place for the airline, hotel and entertainment industries, on July 18. Instead of proposing a narrower set of regulations before then, the CDC appealed Tuesday to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit and asked Merryday to reverse his order while the appeal is heard.
The CDC argues its cruise regulations fall under its broad authority to protect public health and are needed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In its request Tuesday, the CDC said cruise ships have a higher risk of COVID-19 spread than other venues like hotels and airplanes.
America is hitting its vaccination ceiling – Axios
The U.S. appears to be reaching its ceiling on COVID-19 vaccinations, at least among adults.
Why it matters: The more transmissible and dangerous variant Delta variant is spreading fast, and experts fear another wave of infections among the unvaccinated.
“We’ve hit the wall in the number of vaccinations in recent weeks,” Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute told Axios.
- “Just trying to deduce from other countries where we’re headed, if we don’t get a big jump up in our vaccination rate, we’re going to be vulnerable for a lot more cases,” Topol said, adding that comes with increased hospitalization, long COVID and death.
Driving the news: President Biden yesterday all but begged the unvaccinated to get a shot, reminding them that it’s free and telling them to think about the family members they might put at risk by not getting vaccinated.
- The Americans who were most receptive to that message, however, are already vaccinated.
By the numbers: Roughly 67% of American adults have had at least one shot, and 58% are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.
- There’s no magic number that determines herd immunity. Experts put out estimates between 60% to 70% early in the pandemic, but they’ve since revised those estimates, in some cases to at least 85%, with the increase in variants.
- The U.S. hit its peak in April, when CDC data shows more than 4.4 million doses were distributed in a single day. The nationwide average has now fallen to about 500,000 shots per day.
“If we continue to let this pandemic run wild… there is a probability that there will eventually be a variant against which the vaccines will be less effective,” Saad Omer, director of the Yale Institute for Global Health said in a blog earlier this year.
Why Is NASA Working So Hard To Learn How To Defend The Earth From Giant Asteroids? – ZeroHedge
Did you know that NASA is going to send a spacecraft on a suicide mission in an attempt to change the trajectory of a massive space rock? The good news is that the space rock that NASA will be crashing this spacecraft into is not on a collision course with Earth. It is only a test. But why has NASA suddenly become so concerned with figuring out how to defend the Earth from giant asteroids? Could it be possible that there is something heading toward Earth in the future that they haven’t told us about yet?
According to NASA, there are more than 26,000 asteroids that pass near Earth, and more than 2,000 of them are classified as “potentially dangerous” asteroids.
Most of those “potentially dangerous” asteroids aren’t that large, but 158 of them do have a diameter of more than one kilometer.
If one of those monsters were to hit us, it would be a disaster of cataclysmic proportions.
Of course there are countless other space rocks that our scientists have not discovered yet, and those probably represent the greatest threat. Because if you don’t see a threat coming, you can’t get prepared for it in advance.
These days, NASA officials have become quite preoccupied by the threat that giant space rocks potentially pose, and we are being told that “scientists are at work on a plan to avoid the destruction of Earth by an errant asteroid”. The following comes from an article that was just published by the Boston Globe …
NASA and a cadre of the world’s leading engineers and space scientists are at work on a plan to avoid the destruction of Earth by an errant asteroid like the one 65 million years ago that wiped out the dinosaurs, created a cloud of dust so impenetrable that it blocked out the sun, and plunged the planet into a prolonged winter that sent half of all plant life into extinction.
[editor’s note: interesting post which deserves a full read]
Odds of COVID Death Rose When Hospital Cases Surged – MedPage
Hospitals with a sudden influx of patients, or a patient surge, saw higher mortality rates during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers found.
From March to August 2020, odds of patient mortality was twice as high at hospitals experiencing the greatest surges (99th percentile) compared to those not having surges (adjusted OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.69-2.38), reported Sameer Kadri, MD, of the NIH Clinical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, and colleagues.
Moreover, an estimated 23.2% of 25,344 COVID-19 deaths could have been attributed to hospitals with surging caseloads, they wrote in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The authors noted that decreased ICU bed availability and high community case burden have been tied to poor COVID-19 outcomes. Effective medications and supportive care could be responsible for temporal improvements in hospital survival rates for COVID-19, but they still noted variations in survival rates.
“Wide variability in hospital survival reported even among contemporaneously admitted patients within and between regions suggests that differences in capacity and resources across hospitals and over time might have contributed to outcomes,” they wrote.
The authors examined data from 588 U.S. hospitals in a large database for adult inpatients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR. They were admitted from March to August 2020 and discharged by October 2020. Only hospitals with at least 15 unique COVID-19-coded inpatient encounters were included.
Study quantifies the impact of loneliness in old age on life and health expectancy – News-Medical
In 1966, The Beatles cemented the plight of lonely older people in the popular imagination with the iconic ‘Eleanor Rigby’, a song that turned pop music on its head when it stayed at number one on the British charts for four weeks. Today, the impact of loneliness in old age on life and health expectancy has been categorically quantified for the first time in a study by scientists at Duke-NUS Medical School (Singapore), Nihon University (Tokyo, Japan) and their collaborators, published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society.
“We found that lonely older adults can expect to live a shorter life than their peers who don’t perceive themselves as lonely,” summarised the study’s lead author, Assistant Professor Rahul Malhotra, Head of Research at Duke-NUS’ Centre for Ageing Research and Education (CARE). “Furthermore, they pay a penalty for their shorter life by forfeiting potential years of good health.”
Associate Professor Angelique Chan, Executive Director of CARE and a senior author of the study, noted, “Besides being the year associated with the coronavirus disease, 2019 was also when the number of adults aged over 30 made up half the total global population for the first time in recorded history, marking the start of an increasingly ageing world. In consequence, loneliness among seniors has become an issue of social and public health concern.”
Anti-coagulant drug could treat COVID-19’s emerging variants – EurekAlert
QUT PhD researcher Zachariah Schuurs said the research team had identified a new binding site on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.
“Binding of the CoV-2 spike protein to heparan sulphate (HS) on cell surfaces is generally the first step in a cascade of interactions the virus needs to initiate an infection and enter the cell.
“Most research has focused on understanding how HS interacts on the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and furin cleavage site of the SARS-CoV-2 virus’s spike protein, as these typically bind different types of drugs, vaccines and antibodies.
“We have identified a novel binding site on the N-terminal domain (NTD), a different area of the virus’s spike that facilitates the binding of HS. This helps to better understand how the virus infects cells. The NTD is also a part of the spike protein that frequently mutates.
“Some antibodies in the blood that neutralise the viruses bind to the same region of the NTD.
“Therefore, targeting the NTD site with molecules like heparin (or heparin mimetics), a known anti-coagulant drug similar to HS, is a possible strategy to stop the virus binding to cells and infecting them.”
Dr Neha Gandhi, from the QUT Centre for Genomics and Personalised Health, said COVID19 vaccines, although achieving success worldwide, were still far from being widely accessible.
“We need alternative antiviral strategies to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and treat infected people,” Dr Gandhi said.
Houston Breakout of Delta COVID Variant Should Be ‘Wake-Up Call,’ Virologist Says – Newsweek
A virologist from Texas A&M University warned that the COVID-19 Delta variant should be a “wake-up call to communities,” to prove the success of vaccines and the risks that COVID-19 still poses, as Houston faces an outbreak of the contagious variant.
According to the Houston Chronicle, over 125 positive COVID-19 cases were reported in an outbreak last week, and at least three were positive for the Delta variant.
Dr. Benjamin Neuman, a virologist and professor at Texas A&M, told the Texas Tribune: “Clearly, COVID is not over.”
“COVID isn’t ever gone until it’s completely gone,” Neuman said. “And I think we’ve made the mistake of assuming that the virus would go away or assuming that the virus wouldn’t affect children….We keep stumbling into the same mistakes over and over, and that is not a way out of COVID-19.”
The Houston Chronicle reported that the Delta variant, and the COVID outbreak in Houston, was spread through a camp retreat by a church group.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
China bans new super skyscrapers, capping buildings at 500 metres
Nine Countries Reject Global Minimum Tax Deal, Sending It Down Rocky Road to Completion
IL-6 blockers tocilizumab (Actemra) and sarilumab (Kevzara), administered with corticosteroids, are now part of the World Health Organization’s recommended arsenal for treating severely or critically ill patients with COVID-19. Prompting Doctors Without Borders to call on tocilizumab-maker Roche to lower the price of the costly drug.
Greece Reports Jump in COVID Cases After Many Weeks of Decline
WHO Recommends Roche, Sanofi Drugs for COVID-19 to Cut Death Risk
Portuguese Told to Stay Alert as Delta Variant Surges
On the CCP’s Centennial, 380 Million People Have Already Quit the Party and Its Organizations
European CDC links nearly 2,500 COVID-19 cases to soccer tournament
India’s Health Minister Removed From Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet. “The government has admitted by these changes that it has failed miserably in handling the pandemic as it should have,” journalists and political analyst Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay said.
COVID Vaccine Supply Woes Lead Sydney to Lock Down for Another Week
Some of Fiji’s Olympians Taking Flight With Frozen Fish to Get to Tokyo
France is preparing a new law to make Covid vaccinations compulsory for health care workers
Covid cases surge while vaccines stagnate in Africa, as experts urge greater global contribution
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The Dollar’s Declining Status as Dominant Global Reserve Currency
To reach unvaccinated Americans, President Biden said the government would set up clinics at workplaces and urge employers to offer paid time off.
The Pentagon canceled a $10 billion cloud-computing contract with Microsoft, after Amazon accused the Trump administration of interfering with the bidding process.
The Russian hackers behind the SolarWinds attack seem to have breached a contractor for the Republican National Convention, investigators say.
Preschool, Kindergarten Enrollment Drops 13 Percent Nationally
“U.S. citizens are dying” because the FDA hasn’t approved the COVID-19 vaccines, said former Surgeon General Jerome Adams, MD.
Patients who had severe COVID were more than twice as likely than people who had mild or moderate disease to be hospitalized again for COVID-induced health issues.
Symptomatic COVID patients manifested antibody responses lasting at least 8 months, according to a new preprint.
Mother-to-baby SARS-CoV-2 transmission in pregnancy possible but rare, says study
New study reports low SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated healthcare workers
California’s highest covid infection rates shift to rural counties
Fauci Casts Doubt on Study Questioning Effectiveness of Pfizer Shot. Israeli study claims Pfizer vaccine may be only 64 percent effective in preventing symptomatic COVID cases, amid the spread of the Delta variant.
Man in ICU After Getting J&J COVID Vaccine in Rare Breakthrough Case. Isaac Cary, a 64-year-old Uber driver, caught the Delta variant of the virus. He is now on a ventilator.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
May 2021 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Continues Near Series High
Is The Retail Investor Rampage Over?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts – in the U.S. and around the world – decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
