Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 0.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 32.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 5,371
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 41
- The Great Big ‘Delta’ Scariant – the Delta Variant Is More Contagious But Less Lethal
- Israel sees drop in Pfizer vaccine protection against infections
- Scientists identify natural SARS-CoV-2 super immunity against 23 variants
- A map shows the 12 states most at risk from COVID-19, all with high levels of Delta and below-average vaccination rates
- Virus cases are surging at crowded immigration detention centers in the U.S.
- Why The Tight US Labor Market May Be Here To Stay
- Growth in China’s June services activity falls to 14-month low – Caixin PMI
- The real reason Royal Caribbean ships are sailing with fewer vaccinated passengers than other cruise lines
- Hackers demand $70 million to unlock businesses hit by sprawling ransomware attack
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Why The Tight US Labor Market May Be Here To Stay – Benzinga
In a series of blog posts last week, Commonwealth Financial Network chief investment officer Brad McMillan discussed just what’s going on with labor shortages in the U.S. economy.
The $300-per-week emergency federal unemployment supplement has taken a lot of the blame for the lack of available workers, but McMillan said there is a much larger and longer-term trend in play.
OK, Boomers: McMillan said there were more job openings than workers to fill them in the U.S. economy even prior to the pandemic. A long-term graph of the number of job openings subtracted from the number of unemployed Americans reveals the number of surplus jobs has been trending lower ever since the financial crisis in 2008 and dipped into negative territory back in 2018.
One of the primary reasons for this longer-term trend is the retirement of the baby boomer generation, McMillan said. In fact, the pandemic forced a number of boomers into early retirement since the beginning of 2020.
“After the initial pandemic layoffs, the number of people not working because they were laid off, in one form or another, steadily declined as individuals moved back into the workforce. The number of people not working due to retirement spiked, as older people who were laid off opted to remain out of the workforce,” McMillan wrote.
… the long-term trend of people moving out and staying out of the labor force is likely to continue in years ahead, McMillan said. If the percentage of Americans not in the labor force who are actually seeking jobs continues to fall, the economy could continue to see upward pressures on wages in the years ahead.
“We won’t see another series of shocks, such as those that occurred during the pandemic, but we won’t go back to the normal of past decades either,” he wrote. “The labor market is in the middle of a shift from a surplus of workers to a potential shortage.”
Growth in China’s June services activity falls to 14-month low – Caixin PMI – Reuters
Growth in China’s services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month low, weighed down by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in southern China, a private survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the world’s second-largest economy may be starting to lose some momentum.
The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since April 2020 and down significantly from 55.1 in May. It held just above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
China’s official services gauge had also shown a marked slowdown in June, though it remained well in expansion territory. The private survey is believed to focus more on smaller companies.
Coupled with a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, analysts say the PMI survey findings suggest that pent-up COVID demand may have peaked and China’s robust economic rebound from the crisis is starting to moderate.
A map shows the 12 states most at risk from COVID-19, all with high levels of Delta and below-average vaccination rates – Business Insider
- The 12 US states at most risk from COVID-19 include Arkansas, Nevada, and Missouri, according to Covid Act Now.
- The organization uses CDC data and is partnered with Stanford, Harvard and Georgetown Universities.
- The highest risk states include those with lower vaccination rates and more cases of the highly infectious Delta variant.
The real reason Royal Caribbean ships are sailing with fewer vaccinated passengers than other cruise lines – The Point Guy
If you just can’t get enough cruise restart news, we’ve got some more for you. I’m currently sailing on a three-night Bahamas voyage on Royal Caribbean’s Freedom of the Seas out of Miami. It’s the first cruise for the line in more than 15 months. But what’s interesting is that it’s not requiring passengers — including adults — to show proof of vaccination as a requirement to embark.
Despite an early commitment to vaccination efforts and the fact that the line’s ships will require adult passengers to be vaccinated when departing on sailings from other U.S. states, Royal Caribbean executives claim the line never considered mandating a 95% vaccination rate on its ships (like sister brand Celebrity Cruises is doing). Such a mandate would have allowed them to skip test voyages mandated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as a condition of restarting cruises from U.S. ports.
I sat down with Mark Tamis, Royal Caribbean’s senior vice president of hotel operations, to find out more about why the vaccination decisions were made.
All about families
“When the first set of potential regulations were published, it was such an obvious choice of the path that we had to go down,” Tamis said. “Once there were two clear paths — 95% or under 95% — it wasn’t even really a consideration. We knew one path would allow us to have families, and one path would limit the number of families.”
“Almost everyone who’s unvaccinated is a kid, and about half of the vaccine-eligible kids, even on this cruise, are vaccinated,” Tamis added. (There are currently 107 children 17 and younger onboard.) “A good 20 to 25% of our guests are kids because we’re the largest family cruise brand in the world, so it was pretty obvious that we would just go down this path.”
As a result, there are some venues that are designated for only people who are vaccinated (and vaccinated people can remove their masks in these areas). Additionally, everyone is allowed to remove masks in outdoor areas, as well as on Perfect Day at CocoCay, Royal Caribbean’s private island. But otherwise, masks must be worn in all indoor public areas onboard that aren’t specifically designated for vaccinated passengers.
Although unvaccinated passengers can’t access places like the casino, the spa and a handful of bars and restaurants, it’s not as exclusionary as it sounds. That’s particularly true because, despite the lack of vaccine requirements, 93% of the ship’s 2,197 people (1,041 passengers and 1,156 crew) are fully inoculated.
Scientists identify natural SARS-CoV-2 super immunity against 23 variants – News-Medical
A team of international scientists has recently identified ultrapotent anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies from convalescent donors.
The antibodies are capable of neutralizing a wide range of SARS-CoV-2 variants even at sub-nanomolar concentrations. In addition, the combinations of these antibodies reduce the risk of generating escape mutants in vitro. The study is published in the journal Science.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative pathogen of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is an enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA virus belonging to the human beta-coronavirus family. The spike glycoprotein on the viral envelop is composed of two subunits S1 and S2. Of which, the S1 subunit directly binds to the host cell angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor through the receptor-binding domain (RBD) to initiate the viral entry process.
The majority of therapeutic antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 have been designed based on the native spike protein sequence found in the original Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, novel viral variants with multiple spike protein mutations may likely develop resistance against these antibodies. In this context, studies have shown that antibodies developed in response to currently available COVID-19 vaccines have less efficiency in neutralizing novel variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV, including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P1, and B.1.617.2.
In the current study, the scientists have isolated and characterized anti-spike RBD antibodies from COVID-19 recovered patients.
The antibodies were isolated from four convalescent donors infected with the Washington-1 (WA-1) strain of SARS-CoV-2. The spike sequence in the WA-1 strain is similar to the spike sequence in the original Wuhan strain.
The B cells isolated from donor-derived blood samples were sorted for antibody identification. This led to the identification of four potent neutralizing antibodies targeting the spike RBD. These antibodies showed a high affinity for the SARS-CoV-2 spike even at nanomolar concentrations.
… All experimental antibodies exhibited significantly higher potency in neutralizing D614G mutation-containing variants than the WA-1 strain. Further analysis with lentiviral particles pseudotyped with spike variants indicated that the antibodies maintain high potency in neutralizing a diverse set of 10 spike variants.
Importantly, three out of four experimental antibodies showed high efficacy in neutralizing 13 circulating variants of concern/interest of SARS-CoV-2, including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.526, P.1, P.2, B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2.
Hackers demand $70 million to unlock businesses hit by sprawling ransomware attack – Washington Post
A hacking group that experts said was behind the sprawling ransomware attack that hit hours before the beginning of the July Fourth holiday weekend is demanding $70 million to unlock the thousands of businesses affected by the hack.
REvil, the same Russian-language group that was behind the attack on meat processor JBS, posted the demand on a dark-Web site associated with the group.
The group wants the funds in bitcoin, a popular cryptocurrency, and said if it receives the money it will publish a “decryptor key,” or a computer code that will unlock the victims’ files.
The attack was carried out through software that helps businesses manage their computer systems, made by Miami-based firm Kaseya. Kaseya sells its tool to many large managed service providers, who in turn help small and midsize businesses monitor and control their computer networks.
The Great Big ‘Delta’ Scariant – ZeroHedge
As a virus mutates, it becomes more contagious and less lethal. And then eventually it mostly disappears. Many voices claim that Delta will be with us for a very long time, but we should be so lucky. It’s way more likely that it will soon be followed by a next variant that will in turn become dominant. And more contagious and less lethal.
And no, that’s not because of unvaccinated people, or at least there’s no logic in that. If most people are not vaccinated, the virus has no reason to mutate. If many people are, it does. So this CNN piece is suspect. Vaccinated people are potential variant factories, just as much, if and when the vaccines used don’t stop them from being infectious, as the present vaccines don’t, far as we know.
Unvaccinated People Are “Variant Factories,” Infectious Diseases Expert
Unvaccinated people do more than merely risk their own health. They’re also a risk to everyone if they become infected with coronavirus, infectious disease specialists say. That’s because the only source of new coronavirus variants is the body of an infected person. “Unvaccinated people are potential variant factories,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told CNN Friday. “The more unvaccinated people there are, the more opportunities for the virus to multiply,” Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said. “When it does, it mutates, and it could throw off a variant mutation that is even more serious down the road.”
“Even more serious”? Well, yes, it can become more contagious, but then it loses lethality. Maybe that’s what we want. Maybe we want a virus that everyone can be infected by, and build resistance to, without serious consequences. Maybe that’s even what we should aim for. And also, maybe that’s what we already have, with survival rates of 99.99% among most people.
And maybe, just maybe, a one-dimensional “solution” in the shape of an experimental vaccine is the worst response of all. Because it doesn’t protect from anything other than more severe disease, while unleashing potential adverse effects for decades to come in the inoculated. Maybe one dimension simply doesn’t cut it. Maybe we should not refuse to prevent people from becoming infected, or to treat them in the early stages of the disease.
Maybe the traumatic effects of lockdowns and facemasks should be part of “benefits and risks” models. And maybe we should start trying vitamin D, ivermectin and HCQ on a very large scale. No research, you say? There’s more research for those approaches than for the vaccines. But it’s largely been halted in the west to maintain the viability of the one-dimension “solution”; the medical Siamese twin of the Trusted News Initiative, one might say. Of which The Atlantic is also a valued member, look at this gem:
[editor’s note: this is worth a full read. Lots of points not covered above. The pandemic data (and lack there of) leaves more questions than answers allowing no one to be able to make true scientific and rational decisions]
Israel sees drop in Pfizer vaccine protection against infections – Reuters
Israel reported on Monday a decrease in the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in preventing infections and symptomatic illness but said it remained highly effective in preventing serious illness.
The decline coincided with the spread of the Delta variant and the end of social distancing restrictions in Israel.
Vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6, the Health Ministry said. At the same time the vaccine was 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations and serious illness from the coronavirus.
… A Pfizer spokesperson declined to comment on the data from Israel, but cited other research showing that antibodies elicited by the vaccine were still able to neutralize all tested variants, including Delta, albeit at reduced strength.
Is Confirmation Bias Guiding COVID Vaccine Recommendations? – MedPage
Over the last year, one message has been clearly emphasized: trust science. Evidence, and only high-quality evidence, will form the basis for policy. How has this influenced the coronavirus vaccine campaign? On the one hand, there has been strict adherence to scientific rigor when it fits the desired narrative. On the other hand, scientists may differ in how they interpret the science. For example, some insist treatments are only “evidence-based” when they were evaluated in a double-blind randomized clinical trial and applied using protocols that exactly mirror the research studies. Others are willing to accept evidence from modeling exercises based on questionable assumptions. Yet, when advocating for greater acceptance of vaccines, the scientific standard is far from uniform. When communicating with the public, the same scientists may apply different standards depending on whether study conclusions fit the desired message.
Why would the world’s greatest scientific thinkers apply the “good science” label so inconsistently? Perhaps the best explanation is what psychologists call confirmation bias, which is the tendency to interpret observations or data in a manner consistent with previously established beliefs and values. Thousands of studies conducted over the last 50 years show how confirmation bias clouds conclusions in the sciences, the arts, politics, judicial decisions, finance, and medicine. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, PhD, has contributed numerous examples showing how, even among the most experienced scientists, preconceived notions color the interpretation of data and events. And worse, prior beliefs influence how we scrutinize information. Studies have consistently shown that people uncritically accept evidence that confirms their beliefs, while subjecting disconfirming information to rigorous skeptical evaluation.
Before we continue, we want to be clear: we support the widespread deployment of coronavirus vaccines. We both were vaccinated as soon as we were eligible. But, we worry that bias can shade interpretation of evidence where scientific uncertainty remains.
… This leads us back to the complicated morass of vaccine advocacy, science, and confirmation bias. No doubt, leading physicians and scientists, eager to encourage vaccination, sincerely believe vaccines do not affect fertility or birth outcomes. Does the evidence justify the enthusiasm? The vaccine makers have clearly stated that data are not sufficient to determine whether the vaccines are safe and effective for pregnant women. They are only now beginning studies that will provide sufficient evidence on safety. Policy should be based on unimpeachable science. We need to recognize our fallibility in interpreting evidence: When using science to warn or reassure the public, even the best scientists must recognize that we are all potential victims of confirmation bias.
[editor’s note: this is a great post which I am unable to summarize all the points. I strongly recommend reading this entire post]
Virus cases are surging at crowded immigration detention centers in the U.S. – New York Times
As their populations swell nearly to prepandemic levels, U.S. immigration detention centers are reporting major surges in coronavirus infections among detainees.
Public health officials, noting that few detainees are vaccinated against the virus, warn that the increasingly crowded facilities can be fertile ground for outbreaks.
The number of migrants being held in the detention centers has nearly doubled in recent months as border apprehensions have risen, according to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. More than 26,000 people were in detention last week, compared with about 14,000 in April.
More than 7,500 new coronavirus cases have been reported in the centers over that same period, accounting for more than 40 percent of all cases reported in ICE facilities since the pandemic began, according to a New York Times analysis of ICE data.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
England will end most COVID restrictions on July 19, despite rising hospitalizations.
Lebanon’s currency has lost more than 90 percent of its value, and electricity, food and medicine are in short supply.
As Tokyo Olympics approach, virus worries rise in Japan
After troops exit, safety of US Embassy in Kabul top concern
US left Bagram Air Base in dead of night, didn’t tell new Afghan commander
Germany lifts pandemic ban on travelers from UK, Portugal
Israel and South Korea have agreed to swap hundreds of thousands of doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in the coming months to meet their countries’ needs, Israel’s prime minister, Naftali Bennett, said in a statement released Tuesday morning. Under the deal, Israel will send about 700,000 expiring doses of the vaccine this month to South Korea, where cases of the virus are rising. South Korea will send the same amount to Israel in September and October, the statement said, describing the agreement as the first of its kind for the exchange of vaccines between Israel and another country.
Serbian, Ugandan Olympic Athletes Tested Positive for COVID-19
Luxembourg’s prime minister is hospitalized in ‘serious’ condition with low blood-oxygen levels.
With cases spiking again, Greece orders bars and clubs to serve only seated customers.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
US Army Directs Commands To Prep For Mandatory COVID Shots For Troops; Report
While the rest of the country celebrated Independence Day, a sudden rise in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations — especially among Black residents — put a damper on the holiday spirit in Los Angeles County.
A hospital in hard-hit Springfield, Missouri ran out of ventilators as COVID cases climbed.
New coronavirus cases rose 42% in the past week in Florida, though hospitalizations remained low.
The agency also cleared another batch of drug substance for the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine from the troubled Emergent BioSolutions plant.
Ohio’s Vax-a-Million lottery may not have been the only reason for increased vaccination rates in the state.
Nearly 15 million Americans, or about 11% of people who had sufficient time to do so, did not receive their second dose of vaccine.
In a suit filed in Washington district court, healthcare workers alleged their Amazon Alexa-enabled devices may have recorded private, HIPAA-protected conversations with patients.
A student ministry camp in Texas led to more than 125 kids in grades 6 through 12 developing COVID.
The FDA declined to approve Provention Bio’s teplizumab, an investigational drug for the delay of clinical type 1 diabetes in at-risk individuals, asking for more data, the company said.
Mutations in the Epsilon variant contribute to SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion
Preliminary study shows no need to cease breastfeeding following COVID-19 vaccination
COVID-19 recovered vaccinated individuals more protected from Delta variant
Lack of Vaccine Side Effects No Cause for Concern
Maryland says 100 percent of COVID-19 deaths last month were among unvaccinated
Biden administration makes it easier to qualify for Covid funeral reimbursement
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
June 2021 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Decline But Remain Well Into Expansion
June 2021 Conference Board Employment Index: Historically Rapid Job Growth to Continue
A Post-Mortem Of The Paycheck Protection Program
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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