Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 13.4 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now [data anomaly today] % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 20,467
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at [data anomaly today]
- How dangerous is the new Delta Plus variant? Here’s what we know.
- Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Provides 8-Month COVID Immunity, Protection Against Delta Variant
- Three Middle East countries led the world on vaccines early. Then they went in different directions
- Preventing the Next Pandemic
- One GI Symptom Stuck Around Months After Severe COVID
- Rescue Team in Surfside Condo Collapse Demobilized After 6 Firefighters Test Positive for COVID
- Just as the box office hit its stride, the delta variant appeared, with the power to halt progress
- There’s no labor shortage — just not enough good jobs
- Lost summer on repeat: Opening of U.S.-Canada border may come too late for exclaves
- 3 ways student debt impacts the economy
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste: Preventing the Next Pandemic – Newsweek
The old saying, never let a crisis go to waste, has never been so relevant. COVID-19 is certainly a crisis of historic proportions. Its dangers to health and prosperity are graphically demonstrated by the number of deaths, currently heading to 4 million, and the lost output, projected to reach $22 trillion.
But the dangers are not limited to the present crisis. Today’s global pandemic was predictable and predicted. Eleven separate reports proposed important changes to the global approach to health security that would have mitigated or even snuffed out this crisis at an earlier stage. And today there is real threat that as vaccines beat variants in the richer parts of the world, the crisis does go to waste.
It is time to challenge the inertia, short-termism and myopia that dogs pandemic preparedness and response. Sitting on three independent international panels—the Independent Panel on Pandemic Preparedness and Response, the Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development and the G20 High Level Independent Panel on Pandemic Financing—we believe there are three principles that are key to preventing another catastrophic pandemic.
First, pandemic preparedness and response must be understood in a new way—as a global public good. The reason is that the world has been solving the wrong type of problem when it comes to pandemic preparedness and response. International systems have treated pandemics solely as health issues. Governance and accountability have therefore sat with the World Health Assembly and the World Health Organization. Financing has relied on domestic budgets supplemented by development assistance for health. This is how we govern and finance many health issues such as primary health care, nutrition, family planning and the management of both communicable and non-communicable diseases.
But there is a critical difference between the management of pandemics (alongside other truly global health threats such as antimicrobial resistance) and these other health issues. A primary care system benefits the finite and localized group that it has the capacity to serve. A surveillance system that detects a new outbreak benefits the entire global population that learns of the threat. Preventing pandemics or protecting the world from cross border infectious threats is a global public good. It is “non excludable,” as no country can prevent others from benefiting, and non-rival, as one country benefiting does not limit the extent to which other countries can benefit.
[editor’s note: good opinion article which deserves a full read]
The Gamma Variant’s Rise in Washington State – MedPage
On top of a historic heat wave, the Pacific Northwest has been hit with a rise in COVID-19 cases caused by the Alpha, Delta, and Gamma variants. And while much of the world is focused on Delta, or B.1.617.2, government officials in Washington state are particularly wary of Gamma (P.1).
Washington state’s leading COVID-19 strain remains Alpha (B.1.1.7), first detected in the U.K. But according to recent data released by the state’s Department of Health (DOH), cases caused by Gamma reached 16.3% in mid-June — a decrease from a high of 20.6% in May. Delta cases increased by more than 10% from May to June, now making up 17.6% of infections in the state — all while Alpha cases continue to slowly dwindle.
Although the Delta variant has eclipsed Gamma cases in Washington in recent weeks, state epidemiologist Scott Lindquist, MD, MPH, has continued to express his worries about Gamma’s detrimental impact.
“Our Delta variant is not as aggressive, it’s not causing as many hospitalizations or deaths as would be predicted, but the P.1 tends to be causing more hospitalizations and deaths,” Lindquist said in a DOH briefing about the state’s June 30 reopening.
The Gamma variant was, in fact, associated with the highest number of hospitalizations and deaths in comparison to any other strains of COVID-19, including Alpha and Delta, according to the DOH report.
Notably, Gamma was detected in 17% of breakthrough infections after vaccination, making it second overall — after Alpha — in vaccine breakthroughs.
3 ways student debt impacts the economy – NBC
During the height of the pandemic, workers with college degrees were spared some of the harshest consequences. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that workers with a bachelor’s degree are less likely to be unemployed and earn 67% more than those with just a high school degree. Plus, college graduates live longer than those without a college degree.
While student loans can be crucial in helping Americans access these benefits, economists say that student debt is holding the economy back.
Approximately 45 million Americans collectively owe $1.7 trillion in student debt. And even though federal student loan payments have been paused since March 27, 2020, the student loan crisis is still looming. The moratorium is set to expire Oct. 1, 2021 and politicians and experts warn that millions of borrowers may be thrown into “extraordinary financial hardship” when payments resume.
1. Generational inequality
2. GDP
3. Delinquency
[editor’s note: worth a full read.]
There’s no labor shortage — just not enough good jobs – Yahoo
A short-staffed restaurant owner is delivering pizza himself, while his co-owner wife has stepped into their vacant general manager role. In another restaurant’s kitchen, a cook with no experience is working the stoves. A usually competitive trainer job at a gym has been open for months.
As the American economy awakens from the slumber of COVID-19, the job market is shape-shifting in ways economists and business owners say they haven’t seen before — and the transition in California is particularly patchy.
Job seekers are ignoring positions they once jumped at. Employers are straining to hire as they gauge whether the difficulties are temporary or signify a more lasting shift.
“We’re being ghosted” by job candidates, said Ashley Richardson, who owns two 9Round Fitness kickboxing gyms, in Long Beach and Riverside. “It’s crazy.”
Until a few months ago, a trainer opening at the gym would get up to a dozen applicants within a week or two, Richardson said. She has now been searching for a trainer for three months, with just four applications in hand.
“Don’t think everything’s OK now because businesses are open,” said Richardson, who has considered raising her above-minimum hourly wage. “If anything, now we’re in the hardest part.”
Some employers have already raised wages and reconfigured jobs to make them more appealing. And while restaurants, hotels and retail stores desperately seek workers to meet surging demand, other sectors are under less pressure as consumers readjust to the lifting of COVID restrictions.
Just don’t call it a labor shortage, economists caution.
“There’s simply no labor shortage when you’re talking about finding house cleaners for a hotel — there is a shortage of workers who want to work at what you’re offering,” said Sylvia Allegretto, a UC Berkeley labor economist. She said the country is experiencing a “wage and benefits shortage.”
Lost summer on repeat: Opening of U.S.-Canada border may come too late for exclaves – Politico
When the Canada-U.S. border finally opens and tourists return to Hyder, Alaska, they will find most of the businesses there closed.
The community of about 60 people is accessible by road only through Canada, so the extension of border restrictions is not just an inconvenience — it’s a devastating blow to the town during what is typically its most profitable season.
“At this point, I think we’re all almost feeling well, f— it, this season’s a wash too,” said Caroline Stewart, the owner of Boundary Gallery & Gifts in Hyder.
Stewart’s gift shop, which draws tourists with her dichroic glass jewelry and locally made fudge, shut down when the border shut down in March 2020, and hasn’t been open since. The same has been true for Hyder’s other businesses — two hotels, two restaurants and a couple of other gift shops.
There are three other “exclaves” like Hyder along the border — two small, sparsely populated towns in the U.S., and one in Canada — which largely rely on an open border to carry out their businesses, go to school and even buy groceries.
But when the border shuttered at the start of the pandemic, residents of the exclaves were left to figure out how to stay afloat with their main source of business — tourism — cut off.
With vaccination rates on the rise in both the U.S. and Canada, locals were hopeful border restrictions would lift June 21 — offering the possibility of a semi-normal summer season. But on June 18 the Canadian government announced that restrictions would stay in place until at least July 21, a move that fueled frustrations in both countries.
While signs are pointing to an ease of border restrictions later this month, businesses in Hyder are looking at another “lost summer,” as the reopening would be too late in the season for it to be profitable, said Hyder Community Association President Paul Larkin.
Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Provides 8-Month COVID Immunity, Protection Against Delta Variant – People
The Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine can now provide immunity against COVID-19 for at least eight months, as well as protection against “other highly prevalent SARS-CoV-2 viral variants” of the virus.
The company announced on Thursday that during its trial, the vaccine generated a “strong neutralizing antibody response” to the widely spreading Delta variant, with 85% effectiveness.
It is also expected to improve and continue immunity past the eight-month span of their study — reassuring the over 12 million Americans who have gotten the Johnson & Johnson dose.
“Current data for the eight months studied so far show that the single-shot Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine generates a strong neutralizing antibody response that does not wane; rather, we observe an improvement over time,” said Mathai Mammen, global head, Janssen research & development, Johnson & Johnson, in a statement.
How dangerous is the new Delta Plus variant? Here’s what we know. – National Geographic
The state of Maharashtra, India, which was hit hard by the devastating second wave of COVID-19, has now reimposed lockdowns due to rising fears about this new variant, dubbed Delta Plus (which is not an official designation).
Delta Plus differs just slightly from Delta—the predominant strain in India and the United Kingdom—which is more infectious and is thought to cause more hospitalizations than previous strains. Existing vaccines are effective against Delta, but only when people are fully vaccinated.
Out of an abundance of caution, the World Health Organization has urged fully vaccinated people to continue wearing masks. “Once you’ve been fully vaccinated, continue to play it safe because you could end up as part of a transmission chain. You may not actually be fully protected. Sometimes the vaccines don’t work,” Bruce Aylward, WHO senior adviser, said at a news conference last week.
The Delta Plus variant began appearing in global databases after mid-March, and by April 26 cases were found in England, prompting the United Kingdom to ban international travel on June 4. However, several patients with no history of travel or contact with travelers got infected with Delta Plus, which suggests the variant had begun to circulate in the U.K. through community spread. While the variant isn’t yet common, the Indian Health Ministry designated Delta Plus a Variant of Concern (VOC) on June 22, citing its perceived increased transmissibility, ability to bind more strongly to receptors on lung cells, and potential to evade an antibody response.
But whether Delta Plus meets the threshold for VOC designation is unclear. “India called it a VOC out of caution rather than any hard data,” says Ravindra Gupta, an immunologist and infectious diseases specialist at University of Cambridge.
… Now at least two versions of the Delta Plus variant are slowly spreading around the world. The variant has been detected in Canada, Germany, Russia, Switzerland, Poland, Portugal, Nepal, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. The more Internationally prevalent version is designated “AY.1”, while “AY.2” is confined mostly to the U.S. Delta Plus has already been detected 150 times in the U.S.
Existing vaccines still work against the original Delta variant but are less effective, especially among people who might not mount an effective immune response after vaccination, are older, or whose protection may wane faster. A single dose of the Pfizer or the AstraZeneca vaccine was only 33 percent effective against symptomatic disease caused by Delta variant. After both doses, the AstraZeneca vaccine was 60 percent effective, and the effectiveness of the Pfizer jab rose to 88 percent. New early research suggests that Moderna’s vaccine is less efficacious against the Delta variant and Johnson & Johnson is only about 60 percent effective.
… Delta Plus differs from Delta because of an extra mutation—K417N—located in the spike protein, which covers the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This same location is mutated in other VOCs: Beta (first identified in South Africa) and Gamma (first identified in Brazil). The K417 mutation has also been detected in some samples of Alpha (first identified in UK).
The K417 position is within the region of the spike protein that interacts with the ACE2 receptor protein and enables the virus to infect cells—including those in the lung, heart, kidney, and intestine. When the spike protein encounters ACE2, it transforms from a “closed” to an “open” state to bind to the receptor and infect the cell. Based on studies of the Beta variant, which carries this same mutation, K417N can help the spike reach the fully “open” state, which likely increases its ability to infect. Increased ACE2 receptor binding and a more open state are traits of other highly transmissive and antibody resistant variants.
Studies show that mutations at the K417 location help the Beta variant evade antibodies, so that could mean Delta Plus may dodge vaccines and antibodies even better than Delta.
Rescue Team in Surfside Condo Collapse Demobilized After 6 Firefighters Test Positive for COVID – Newsweek
At least six firefighters working on rescuing victims from a condominium collapse in Surfside, Florida, were demobilized after testing positive for COVID-19, as the death toll from the accident rose to 22 on Friday.
Miami-Dade Fire Chief Alan Cominsky said Friday that the task force with the positive cases had been dismissed and the firefighters are now in isolation.
“We do have our medical procedures in place,” Cominsky said, the Miami Herald reported. “Unfortunately, this is another challenge but something we’ve been dealing with for over the past year.”
The incident adds to a growing set of obstacles that rescue teams have already faced, including the dangerous task of sifting through piles of broken concrete and steel, as well as inclement weather, spontaneous fires, and the looming threat of Hurricane Elsa.
Just as the box office hit its stride, the delta variant appeared, with the power to halt progress – CNBC
- A slow and steady uptick in box office receipts could be threatened by the new delta variant of the coronavirus.
- More than half of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, which has led to a sharp drop in the number of deaths from Covid.
- Public health officials are watching the spread of the highly contagious delta variant in communities with low vaccination rates, which has driven a recent increase in cases.
One GI Symptom Stuck Around Months After Severe COVID – MedPage
While most gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms resolved for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, inability to gain weight persisted for months, researchers found in a retrospective study.
Half of all patients (50.6%) could not regain weight at 3 months, while 32.4% of patients reported an inability to gain weight 6 months later, reported Arvind J. Trindade, MD, from Long Island Jewish Medical Center in New Hyde Park, New York, and colleagues.
Percentages were higher among patients with malnutrition, with 56.4% of this population unable to gain weight at 6 months, the authors wrote in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology.
However, gastroenteritis, GI bleeding, and pancreatitis resolved for most patients 3 months after illness, they noted.
“Our study provides reassurance that most individuals with the onset of GI bleeding or gastroenteritis associated with COVID-19 infection will have resolution of these symptoms,” Trindade and colleagues stated.
GI symptoms manifest in patients after the SARS-CoV-2 virus binds to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor inside epithelial cells of the GI tract, the group explained. These symptoms occur in anywhere from 17.6% to 53% of COVID-19 patients, they said, with prior reports suggesting that 10.1% to 39.7% of patients experience loss of appetite.
Longer-term data on COVID-19 sequelae and its association to malnutrition has been limited, Trindade told MedPage Today. From his clinical observations, a lot of COVID-19 patients have trouble regaining weight and the reason why has been largely unknown, he added.
Three Middle East countries led the world on vaccines early. Then they went in different directions – CNBC
Vaccination campaigns in Israel, the UAE and Bahrain raced ahead of the rest of the world at the beginning of 2021. Half a year later, all three are still part of the top 10 most vaccinated countries, but charts show that their Covid infection trends have varied greatly.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Putin’s ‘City-Killer’: Russia Launches World’s Largest Nuclear-Armed Submarine
Russia coronavirus death toll hits daily record for fifth straight day
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Facebook Now Sending Messages To Some Users Asking About Potentially ‘Extremist’ Friends
Surgeon General: COVID Delta Variant Is ‘Doubling Nearly Every 2 Weeks’
Amazon Faces Lawsuit Alleging Price Gouging During Pandemic
Bipartisan Proposal Would Ban Mink Fur Farms Over COVID, Cruelty Concerns
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
May 2021 Coincident Indices Generally Show Strong Growth
Why This Stock Market Index May Be Headed For A ‘Bumpy Ride’
Four Facts About Soaring Consumer Food Prices
How Macroeconomic Forecasters Adjusted During The COVID-19 Pandemic
Increase In Core Inflation Won’t Be Transitory
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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