Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 6.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.7 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 4,165
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 96
- The Pandemic Virus Industrial Complex
- Make-a-Wish Says it Won’t Require Terminally Ill Kids to be Vaccinated
- India: Covishield ‘not eligible’ for EU travel pass
- New face mask prototype can detect COVID-19 infection
- How the UK is a blueprint for the U.S. when it comes to the delta variant
- What Danielle Anderson Said About Wuhan Lab Leak Theory
- Hedge Fund CIO: “Our Growing Acceptance Of Ever Wilder Conspiracy Theories Has Numbed Us To Everything”
- Dr. Fauci ‘caught lying’ to Congress after book exposes details of Wuhan lab-linked grant, lawmaker says
- As variant rises, vaccine plan targets ‘movable middle’
- The vaccines and Delta
- UK coronavirus vaccines have weakened link between infections and death, says scientist
- An ancient viral epidemic involving host coronavirus interacting genes more than 20,000 years ago in East Asia
- Most states have been slow to adopt systems where consumers can provide digital COVID vaccine verification.
- Plus many more headlines …
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus1.htm’); ?>
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
UK coronavirus vaccines have weakened link between infections and death, says scientist – Reuters
Britain’s mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign has weakened the link between infections and deaths but it has not yet been completely broken, the head of a scientific advisory body to the government said on Sunday.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is hoping to lift most remaining coronavirus restrictions on July 19 after being forced to postpone any further easing this month because of a growing number of cases largely from the more infectious Delta variant.
Peter Horby, chair of the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), told the BBC’s “Andrew Marr Show” that Britain was seeing a “much lower level of hospitalisation”.
He was asked if there was enough data to say vaccinations had broken the link between the virus and serious illness and death.
“They’ve certainly weakened the link,” Horby said of the vaccination programme, which has given a first dose to more than 80% of the adult population and a second dose to more than 60%, according to official data.
“We’re definitely seeing increasing infection rates, but what we’re seeing is a much lower level of hospitalisation, so that link is really, really much weaker which is really fantastic but it’s not completely broken.”
The vaccines and Delta – New York Times
But the pandemic is not over. Covid remains a serious threat to unvaccinated adults, especially those middle-aged or older. And now the surprising trends from the spring may be coming to an end: Cases have begun to rise more rapidly in communities with lower vaccination rates.
Consider this chart, which looks at the number of new cases in counties across the U.S., grouping counties by the share of residents who have been fully vaccinated:
By The New York Times | Sources: State, county and regional health departments
A month ago, a chart like this would have looked almost random, with little relationship between caseloads and vaccination rates. Now, there is a clear relationship. (A recent Washington Post analysis came to the same conclusion.)One likely explanation is that vaccination rates have risen high enough in some communities to crush the spread of Covid. In the spring, these places were still coping with significant outbreaks, but they aren’t anymore.
As variant rises, vaccine plan targets ‘movable middle’ – AP
Thrown off-stride to reach its COVID-19 vaccination goal, the Biden administration is sending A-list officials across the country, devising ads for niche markets and enlisting community organizers to persuade unvaccinated people to get a shot.
The strategy has the trappings of a political campaign, complete with data crunching to identify groups that can be won over.
But the message is about public health, not ideology. The focus is a group health officials term the “movable middle” — some 55 million unvaccinated adults seen as persuadable, many of them under 30.
“We’re not just going to do the mass vaccination sites,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. “It’s door to door. It’s mobile clinics. We’re doing vaccinations at church, the PTA meeting, the barber shop, the grocery store.”
Officials have seized on a compelling new talking point, courtesy of the coronavirus. The potent delta variant that has ravaged India is spreading here. Now accounting for about 1 in 5 virus samples genetically decoded in the U.S., the more transmissible mutation has gained a foothold in Mountain West and heartland states. Many of those infected are young and unvaccinated.
Lawmakers are reacting to reports that Dr. Anthony Fauci initially resisted a Trump-era order to cancel a controversial research grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) linked to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in April 2020.
Fauci, who leads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, initially resisted a White House directive to cancel the NIH grant to EcoHealth Alliance — a nonprofit conducting research on coronaviruses that had previously worked with the Wuhan lab some experts fingered as the origin of COVID-19 . He later “reluctantly agreed” after learning then-President Trump was directly behind the order, according to an upcoming book by Washington Post reporters Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta.
In the book titled, “Nightmare Scenario: Inside the Trump Administration’s Response to the Pandemic That Changed History,” Abutaleb and Paletta provide a behind-the-scenes account of how Fauci and his colleagues at the National Institutes of Health responded to the White House’s directive.
In June of 2020, however, Fauci said the grant, worth a remaining $370,000, was “canceled because the NIH was told to cancel it,” and he didn’t “know the reason” behind the White House’s order during a House Energy and Commerce hearing after Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Texas, asked why the Trump administration cut off NIH funding for EcoHealth.
The current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has emphasized the vulnerability of human populations to novel viral pressures, despite the vast array of epidemiological and biomedical tools now available. Notably, modern human genomes contain evolutionary information tracing back tens of thousands of years, which may help identify the viruses that have impacted our ancestors—pointing to which viruses have future pandemic potential. Here, we apply evolutionary analyses to human genomic datasets to recover selection events involving tens of human genes that interact with coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, that likely started more than 20,000 years ago. These adaptive events were limited to the population ancestral to East Asian populations. Multiple lines of functional evidence support an ancient viral selective pressure, and East Asia is the geographical origin of several modern coronavirus epidemics. An arms race with an ancient coronavirus, or with a different virus that happened to use similar interactions as coronaviruses with human hosts, may thus have taken place in ancestral East Asian populations. By learning more about our ancient viral foes, our study highlights the promise of evolutionary information to better predict the pandemics of the future. Importantly, adaptation to ancient viral epidemics in specific human populations does not necessarily imply any difference in genetic susceptibility between different human populations, and the current evidence points toward an overwhelming impact of socioeconomic factors in the case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Hedge Fund CIO: “Our Growing Acceptance Of Ever Wilder Conspiracy Theories Has Numbed Us To Everything” – ZeroHedge
“In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) movement patterns or flight characteristics. Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernible means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency energy associated with UAP sightings.”
– ODNI, Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
“Sociocultural stigmas and sensor limitations remain obstacles to collecting data on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP),” wrote the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. “Narratives from aviators in the operational community and analysts from the military and Intelligence Community describe disparagement associated with observing UAP, reporting it, or attempting to discuss it with colleagues.” Nothing new there.
Throughout human history, those comfortable in the consensus have shown utter contempt for the lonely voices who threaten to upend the prevailing worldview. And yet, without those courageous enough to speak their truth, we would live in a perpetual Dark Ages. Such is the depth of our fear of change that we persecute the brave few, even as they drag us into a better future, kicking, screaming.
It is too early to know whether these UAP represent anomalies of earthly origin, or an extraterrestrial intelligence. But for some mysterious reason, we appear finally prepared to consider the latter.
How we react to news is often more interesting than the events themselves. Contact with an extraterrestrial intelligence would simultaneously represent the greatest risk and opportunity in human history – far surpassing the arrival of Columbus in the Americas.
So why are we seemingly unperturbed by today’s possibility? Perhaps collapsing faith in institutions leaves us distrustful of anything we are now told. Maybe, our growing acceptance of ever wilder conspiracy theories has numbed us to anything, everything. Or possibly, we are already processing such profound change in politics and policy – which produced successive years of 15% US federal deficits, fully funded by the central bank, even as inflation soars and we expand infrastructure spending – that we have no remaining mental space for another alien.
But no matter, back here in our earthly existence, it is a reminder to us traders and investors that no matter how momentous the change, it only matters for markets when for some mysterious reason it starts to matter.
[editor’s note: interesting post which deserves a full read]
India Covid: Covishield ‘not eligible’ for EU travel pass – Yahoo
India’s Covishield jab is not eligible for a European Union travel pass for vaccinated tourists, reports say.
Covishield is the Indian-made version of AstraZeneca, which is eligible for the EU-wide pass or digital green certificate, set to launch on 1 July.
While the latter has been approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the former doesn’t appear to be under review currently.
India has so far overwhelmingly administered Covishield jabs.
The vaccine’s manufacturer, Serum Institute of India (SII), has not clarified if they have applied for approval, but the EMA told the Indian news website Wire that they had not done so.
CEO Adar Poonawalla said his company was trying to “resolve the matter” quickly.
Make-a-Wish Says it Won’t Require Terminally Ill Kids to be Vaccinated – Newsweek
The Make-a-Wish Foundation has made thousands of dreams come true for terminally-ill children over the last few decades. But over the last couple of days, the do-gooders group came under fire for demanding children seeking a great wish get a COVID vaccination.
On Sunday, the foundation reversed its course.
The foundation issued a statement Sunday night saying it understands that many children seeking wishes can’t be vaccinated because of their illness, and that Make-a-Wish will no longer require those children to get a vaccination for the COVID-19 coronavirus.
“We understand that there are many families whose children aren’t eligible for the vaccine yet, and we also know that there are families who are choosing to not get the vaccine,” the group stated on its website. “We respect everyone’s freedom of choice. Make-a-Wish will continue to grant wishes for all eligible children. Make-a-Wish will not require anyone to get vaccinated to receive a wish.
“Any child fighting a critical illness is eligible for Make-a-Wish. While it does not reflect the majority of children we serve, we do occasionally serve children whose medical provider has determined that the child will not survive their illness. In time-sensitive situations involving an end-of-life diagnosis, a special process has been and will continue to be in place regardless of vaccination status.”
The Pandemic Virus Industrial Complex – YouTube
The military has its academic industrial complex and so does virology. The Pandemic Virus Industrial Complex (PVIC) is busy on many fronts, only one of which is trying to obscure the likely lab origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In this video, first presented to the EAT Community on Jan 22nd, Dr Jonathan Latham, PhD, shares insights into the functioning and organization of the various elements that constitute the PVIC. How do its academic, military, and commercial aspects interact? Who, if anyone, pulls the strings?
[editor’s note: The pharma industry contributes heavily to political candidates. This video likely is a little overboard but the concerns are real and must be watched]
Booster may be needed for J&J shot as Delta variant spreads, some experts already taking them – Reuters
Infectious disease experts are weighing the need for booster shots of the Pfizer/BioNTech, or Moderna mRNA-based vaccines for Americans who received Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose vaccine due to the increasing prevalence of the more contagious Delta coronavirus variant.
A few say they have already done so themselves, even without published data on whether combining two different vaccines is safe and effective or backing from U.S. health regulators. Canada and some European countries are already allowing people to get two different COVID-19 shots.
The debate centers on concerns over how protective the J&J shot is against the Delta variant first detected in India and now circulating widely in many countries. Delta, which has also been associated with more severe disease, could quickly become the dominant version of the virus in the United States, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky has warned.
There is no substantial data showing how protective the J&J vaccine is against the new variant. However, UK studies show that two doses of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or AstraZeneca (AZN.L) vaccines are significantly more protective against the variant than one.
Andy Slavitt, former senior pandemic advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden, raised the idea this week on his podcast. At least half a dozen prominent infectious disease experts said U.S. regulators need to address the issue in short order.
“There’s no doubt that the people who receive the J&J vaccine are less protected against disease,” than those who get two doses of the other shots, said Stanford professor Dr. Michael Lin. “From the principle of taking easy steps to prevent really bad outcomes, this is really a no brainer.”
Most states have been slow to adopt systems where consumers can provide digital COVID vaccine verification. – Nature
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccines are ~95% effective in preventing coronavirus disease 20191-5. The dynamics of antibody secreting plasmablasts (PBs) and germinal centre (GC) B cells induced by these vaccines in humans remain unclear. We examined antigen-specific B cell responses in peripheral blood (n=41) and draining lymph nodes (LNs) in 14 individuals who received two doses of BNT162b2, an mRNA-based vaccine encoding full-length SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) gene1. Circulating IgG- and IgA-secreting PBs targeting the S protein peaked one week after the second immunization then declined, becoming undetectable three weeks later. These PB responses preceded maximal levels of serum anti-S binding and neutralizing antibodies to an early circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain as well as emerging variants, especially in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, who produced the most robust serologic responses. By examining fine needle aspirates (FNAs) of draining axillary LNs, we identified GC B cells that bound S protein in all participants sampled after primary immunization. Remarkably, high frequencies of S-binding GC B cells and PBs were sustained in these draining LNs for at least twelve weeks after the booster immunization. S-binding GC B cell-derived monoclonal antibodies predominantly targeted the receptor binding domain of the S protein, with fewer clones binding to the N-terminal domain or to epitopes shared with the S proteins of the human betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1. The latter cross-reactive B cell clones had higher levels of somatic hypermutation compared to those that only recognized SARS-CoV-2 S protein, suggesting a memory B cell origin. Our studies demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-based vaccination of humans induces a persistent GC B cell response, enabling the generation of robust humoral immunity.
New face mask prototype can detect COVID-19 infection – EurekAlert
Engineers at MIT and Harvard University have designed a novel face mask that can diagnose the wearer with Covid-19 within about 90 minutes. The masks are embedded with tiny, disposable sensors that can be fitted into other face masks and could also be adapted to detect other viruses.
The sensors are based on freeze-dried cellular machinery that the research team has previously developed for use in paper diagnostics for viruses such as Ebola and Zika. In a new study, the researchers showed that the sensors could be incorporated into not only face masks but also clothing such as lab coats, potentially offering a new way to monitor health care workers’ exposure to a variety of pathogens or other threats.
“We’ve demonstrated that we can freeze-dry a broad range of synthetic biology sensors to detect viral or bacterial nucleic acids, as well as toxic chemicals, including nerve toxins. We envision that this platform could enable next-generation wearable biosensors for first responders, health care personnel, and military personnel,” says James Collins, the Termeer Professor of Medical Engineering and Science in MIT’s Institute for Medical Engineering and Science (IMES) and Department of Biological Engineering and the senior author of the study.
The face mask sensors are designed so that they can be activated by the wearer when they’re ready to perform the test, and the results are only displayed on the inside of the mask, for user privacy.
What Danielle Anderson Said About Wuhan Lab Leak Theory – Newsweek
Dr. Danielle Anderson, an Australian researcher who was reportedly the only foreign scientist to have conducted research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)’s BSL-4 lab in the weeks leading up to the first known cases of COVID-19 were detected in China, has said: “What people are saying is just not how it is.”
In late May this year, President Joe Biden ordered U.S. intelligence officials to “redouble their efforts” on the investigation of the origins of COVID-19, including whether it had emerged “from a laboratory accident.”
In an interview with Bloomberg published Sunday, Anderson said the lab’s functions and activities were more routine than how they have been portrayed in the media.
“It’s not that it was boring, but it was a regular lab that worked in the same way as any other high-containment lab,” she told Bloomberg.
According to the COVID-19 Commission of The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal, Anderson is currently a senior research fellow at the Melbourne’s Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity.
Bloomberg reported Anderson’s stint at WIV ended in November 2019. She was described as an expert in bat-borne viruses.
[editor’s note: also read Even Without China’s Help, Scientists Push for COVID Origin Investigation]
How the UK is a blueprint for the U.S. when it comes to the delta variant – CNBC
- The U.K.’s initial response to Covid-19, immunization program and world-class research have all played a part in informing other countries how (and sometimes, how not) to deal with the pandemic.
- The U.S. is now following the U.K. which has seen the delta variant become the dominant strain in the country.
- Like the U.K., the U.S. wants to ramp up vaccinations for younger people.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Canada sets record temperature of over 114 degrees amid heat wave, forecasts of even hotter weather
Deliveries of U.S. COVID-19 vaccine through the global COVAX program began this weekend, with the first shipment to Honduras.
UK study finds SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in domestic cats and dogs
Japan strengthens health controls as Olympic athlete tests positive for COVID-19
Abu Dhabi Closing Nearly All Public Spaces to Those Without COVID Vaccine
U.K. Health Secretary Believes Country Can Reopen in July Despite New Cases
COVID Vaccination QR Codes Now Required in Moscow Cafés
Hong Kong Banning Individuals who Entered U.K. for Over 2 Hours
Greece Hoping to Lure Young Citizens to Get Vaccinated With $180 Incentive
Delta Variant COVID Outbreak Puts Sydney and Its Suburbs Under Lockdown
‘Robust’ immune response seen in ‘mix and match’ Covid vaccine study
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Hunter Biden Invested In The Pandemic Firm Collaborating With EcoHealth and The Wuhan Lab.
Drug overdoses have surged during the pandemic. In response, the Biden administration is embracing harm reduction instead of abstinence
Uprooted again: Venezuela migrants cross US border in droves
‘Not fun’: Northwest heat wave builds, all-time records fall
Bipartisan infrastructure deal back on track after walk-back
Serena Williams says she’s not going to Tokyo Olympics.
Ivermectin: Can A Drug Be “Right-Wing”?
Blackouts Loom In California As Electricity Prices Are “Absolutely Exploding”
The US Supreme Court has declined to take up a school’s appeal in a transgender student bathroom case, handing a win to LGBT rights activists. The justices let stand a lower court ruling that a Virginia school had been discriminatory by barring a transgender student from the men’s bathroom.
Two children under age 16 who tested positive for COVID while on a Royal Caribbean cruise were quarantined and then flown home by the cruise line.
Most states have been slow to adopt systems where consumers can provide digital COVID vaccine verification.
U.S. emergency departments are now being overwhelmed by people who avoided psychiatric care during the pandemic.
CDC reported an outbreak of Salmonella linked to frozen shrimp, with six illnesses in Nevada and Arizona, including two hospitalizations.
Study finds minimal SARS-CoV-2 viral load in vaginal secretions
Why SARS-CoV-2 delta variant is more infectious
Study finds sign of long-lasting protection from COVID-19 vaccines
U.S. Braces for Wave of Evictions as Some 6 Million Tenants Owe Back Rent
Airport restaurants, TSA offer $1,000 bonuses in hiring scramble as travelers face long lines
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
June 2021 Texas Manufacturing Index Improves
Cyberattacks And Supply Chain Disruptions
When Will Business Travel Recover? Sooner Than You Might Think
Americans Lost Over 5 Million Years Of Life To Covid-19
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>