Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 3.3 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.7 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 14,906
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 451
- Some people wanted more sex during the pandemic than ever before, research finds
- CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Backs Flu and COVID Vaccine Co-Administration
- Heart problems after vaccinations are very rare—and often resolve quickly
- Florida leads nation in new daily cases of COVID-19, doctors say
- Top Warning Signs Your Hotel May Not Be COVID-Safe
- Here’s what happened when a coronavirus epidemic hit humanity 20,000 years ago
- Trump’s Coronavirus Infection Was Much Worse Than We Knew
- Two young unvaccinated passengers on cruise ship test positive for coronavirus
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
ACIP Backs Flu and COVID Vaccine Co-Administration – MedPage
Committee also voted on dengue, rabies vaccines for kids.
Influenza vaccines can be co-administered with COVID-19 vaccines for both children and adults, according to updated recommendations from the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP).
In a unanimous 14-0 vote on Thursday, the committee approved language for co-administration of influenza and COVID-19 vaccines, in line with current CDC guidance that says COVID-19 vaccines can be administered with other vaccines, though providers should be aware of increased reactogenicity.
Some ACIP members took issue with the lack of data on co-administration in children, though CDC staff noted there had been one pre-print examining co-administration of influenza vaccine and the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine that showed no changes in antibody titers for influenza vaccine and no safety issues.
ACIP member Matthew Daley, MD, of Kaiser Permanente Colorado, encouraged additional study about co-administration of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines, especially in children and adolescents.
Heart problems after vaccinations are very rare—and often resolve quickly – National Geographic
As of June 11, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded 323 confirmed cases of myocarditis and pericarditis, a related condition, among people ages 12 to 29, mostly documented within a week after each patient had received one of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. That figure, announced this week by the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, revises the previous count to include data from children ages 12 to 15, a group that gained authorization to get the Pfizer vaccine in May.
So far, post-vaccination myocarditis has been most commonly reported among people in their late teens and early 20s, according to the committee’s report. The condition is more likely to occur after the second dose, and it happens more often in boys and young men than in girls and women.
Overall, rates of post-vaccination myocarditis and pericarditis are higher than rates normally seen from other causes, Tom Shimabukuro, of the CDC’s COVID-19 Vaccine Task Force, said during the June 23 committee meeting announcing the results. But cases are still infrequent, and the vast majority of patients have responded quickly to treatment.
When young people develop myocarditis or pericarditis (inflammation of the lining around the heart), the cause is often a viral infection. Enteroviruses such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease are among the most common triggers, and those infections are most common in the summertime, says Jeremy Asnes, chief of pediatric cardiology at the Yale School of Medicine in New Haven, Connecticut. There is also evidence of myocarditis after smallpox vaccination.
To get a handle on the apparent uptick of myocarditis in teenagers back in April, Guzman-Cottrill and colleagues took a detailed look at the experiences of seven healthy boys, ages 14 to 19, who sought care for chest pain in April or May. For all of them, symptoms began within four days after receiving the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Testing confirmed myocarditis or pericarditis. All seven recovered quickly, and three received common pain relievers such as ibuprofen as their only treatment, the team reported in a paper this month.
Those findings echoed several other case reports from the U.S. and Israel, which have suggested that post-vaccination myocarditis happens most often in younger people, especially men, says Matthew Oster, a pediatric cardiologist and epidemiologist at Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta and a member of the CDC’s COVID-19 Vaccine Task Force, who spoke at the ACIP meeting. Across those reports, cases have generally been mild, and recovery tends to be relatively rapid, with hospital discharge in two to four days instead of six, as is common with more traditional cases.
“It seems to disappear more quickly than typical myocarditis,” Oster said at the meeting. “I’m optimistic about that.”
Here’s what happened when a coronavirus epidemic hit humanity 20,000 years ago – The Hill
A coronavirus pandemic existed in East Asia more than 20,000 years ago throughout China, Japan and Vietnam.
As COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 3.8 million people and an economic waste of billions of dollars, the ancient coronavirus is still visible in the DNA of people today, The New York Times reported.
“The finding could have dire implications for the Covid-19 pandemic if it’s not brought under control soon through vaccination,” the Times wrote.
“It should make us worry,” David Enard, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who led the study, published Thursday in the journal Current Biology, told the Times. “What is going on right now might be going on for generations and generations.”
In 20 years, there have been three coronaviruses that have gone viral: COVID-19, SARS and MERS, all of which jumped into our species from bats or other mammals. Four other coronaviruses can infect people, causing mild colds. Because coronaviruses have a regular mutation rate, scientists can estimate when they diverge from a common ancestor. Through that technique, the scientists estimated that HCoV-HKU1 arose in the 1950s while HCoV-NL63 dates back 820 years or so.
Enard and his team looked at human DNA to search for evidence left by other past coronaviruses. They examined genes known to respond to coronaviruses, and in certain East Asian populations they found 42 dominant versions. “That was a strong signal that people in East Asia had adapted to an ancient coronavirus,” the Times writes.
The scientists estimated that the genes evolved their antiviral mutations between 20,000 and 25,000 years ago, most likely over the course of a few centuries, in response to an epidemic of a coronavirus.
The scientists noted that those 42 genes may hold promise for developing antiviral treatments in the present day.
Trump’s Coronavirus Infection Was Much Worse Than We Knew – Slate
Little by little, we learn more about Donald Trump’s schemes and lies during the coronavirus pandemic. A few days ago, we found out from excerpts of a new book—Nightmare Scenario: Inside the Trump Administration’s Response to the Pandemic That Changed History—that Trump proposed to quarantine sick Americans at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, so they wouldn’t count as U.S. infections. Now comes another revelation from the same book, this time about Trump’s own COVID-19 infection last fall. He lied about his ordeal, ridiculed precautions, and told people not to worry about the virus, thereby accelerating the worst wave of the pandemic.
Trump pretends he caught the virus because it was inescapable. In reality, he caught it because he sabotaged mask use and social distancing, endangering everyone around him. He didn’t just hold big campaign rallies. He told aides to remove their masks at the White House. The book’s authors, Washington Post journalists Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta, report that Trump specifically objected to masks in staged appearances: “If someone was going to do a news conference with him, he made clear that he or she was not to wear a mask by his side.” In these situations, the no-mask rule did nothing to help Trump hear or see anyone who was speaking to him. All it did was signal to the public that masks were unnecessary or disapproved.
On Sept. 29, shortly before Trump officially tested positive, he went to Cleveland to debate Joe Biden. Circumstantial evidence suggests that Trump suspected, or should have suspected, that he might already be infected. But the book adds an incriminating quote: After meeting with military families at the White House on Sept. 27, Trump told his staff, “If these guys had covid, I’m going to get it because they were all over me.” That remark, combined with his accumulating symptoms, suggests he knowingly endangered Biden and others at the debate.
Once Trump tested positive, the infection could no longer be concealed. But he could still try to hide its severity, and he did. The authors report that he agreed to go to Walter Reed Medical Center only after aides presented a choice: He could walk to the helicopter on his own, or he might be wheeled out to it later, in which case “there would be no hiding his condition.” Trump was already being treated in the White House, so his reluctance to go wasn’t about bravery. It was about vanity and deception. That’s why his aides framed the choice as they did.
… Trump got much sicker than he or the White House acknowledged. Normal blood oxygen levels range from 95 percent to 100 percent. According to the book, Trump’s levels fell into the 80s. Aides feared for his life, and doctors administered a flurry of experimental treatments that were rarely combined. He was rescued by measures no ordinary person could expect: cutting-edge drugs that were in short supply, supervision and advice from the nation’s top physicians, and a direct phone call to the head of the FDA to get authorization for a novel therapy.
Florida leads nation in new daily cases of COVID-19, doctors say – FOX13
Things may be feeling more normal in the community, but the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over, especially in the Sunshine State. Florida leads the nation for new daily cases of COVID-19 and Bay Area hospitals say the patients landing in their beds tend to be younger and unvaccinated.
“We are still averaging around 1,500 cases a day, and that’s pretty much flattened out over the last week or so, which is the highest level in the country right now,” said University of South Florida College of Public Health Distinguished Professor Dr. Thomas Unnasch. “People who haven’t been vaccinated are the ones that are getting still getting sick and getting hospitalized, and in many cases, dying from the infection.”
The trend comes as concerns grow about the Delta variant.
Medical experts say it is expected to become the dominant strain in the U.S. over the next few weeks.
Two young unvaccinated passengers on cruise ship test positive for coronavirus – Seattle Times
Two young unvaccinated passengers on a Royal Caribbean International cruise out of the Bahamas tested positive for the coronavirus, the cruise line said.
The passengers, who were younger than 16 and traveling in the same group, left Adventure of the Seas before the end of the cruise on Thursday in Freeport with their companions. They returned home to Florida on a private flight arranged by the cruise company, CEO Michael Bayley said in a Facebook post.
It was the latest reminder of the difficulty of keeping the virus off cruise ships — and the latest test of the protocols meant to keep COVID from spreading on board. Cruising from the United States on large vessels has been shut down since March 2020, but the first voyages are set to begin as soon as this weekend.
Sailings aimed at North Americans have also been leaving the Bahamas and other Caribbean destinations. Two passengers on one of those cruises — with the same vaccination rules — tested positive earlier this month. And a Royal Caribbean cruise that was scheduled to depart from Florida in early July was postponed after eight crew members tested positive before they were fully vaccinated.
The latest cases emerged near the end of a seven-night sailing on Adventure of the Seas, which left Nassau on Saturday with about 1,000 guests on board and stopped at the line’s private island in the Bahamas and Cozumel before reaching Freeport. All crew and passengers 16 and older are required to be vaccinated for those cruises; the cruise line said it could not provide the exact ages of the passengers who tested positive. Starting Aug. 1, all passengers 12 or older will have to be vaccinated.
WHO: Delta Coronavirus Variant Spreading ‘Rapidly’ Among Unvaccinated Populations – US News
The delta coronavirus variant is spreading “rapidly” among unvaccinated populations, according to the leader of the World Health Organization.
“Delta is the most transmissible of the variants identified so far,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Friday at a press briefing, adding that it has been reported in 85 countries.
He said WHO is concerned about the delta variant and that as some countries relax mitigation measures, the organization has seen an increase in new global coronavirus cases.
Tedros said that while viruses are expected to mutate, “we can prevent the emergence of variants by preventing transmission.”
“It’s quite simple: More transmission, more variants,” Tedros said. “Less transmission, less variants.”
That makes public health measures and vaccines all the more important, he said. However, “as a global community, we are failing” on COVID-19 vaccine supply, Tedros said.
“We are repeating the same mistake as HIV/AIDS, which took 10 years to reach the low-income countries after it was already rampant in high-income countries, and the H1N1 vaccines that were delivered after the epidemic was over,” Tedros said. “Do we want to repeat the same thing? Can’t we learn from what happened in the past?”
Top Warning Signs Your Hotel May Not Be COVID-Safe – Newsweek
Based on our experience with hundreds of hotels across the United States, and according to microbiologists and building scientists on our staff, there are a few signs travelers should watch out for as they assess the quality of their lodging. If a traveler sees one of the following five signs, it may indicate that management is not taking guests’ safety into account in relation to mold, bacteria or COVID-19 itself.
1. No Service Records Posted
2. Lack of New Air Cleaning/Monitoring Technology
3. Dusty Floors and Walls
4. No Topical Cleaning Plan
5. Musty Smells
Some people wanted more sex during the pandemic than ever before, research finds – News-Medical
It is widely assumed that Americans’ sexual activity took a nosedive during the early chaotic months of the coronavirus pandemic. But a new study from the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine challenges this popular narrative.
In a research letter published in the Journal of Internal Medicine, scientists from Pitt and UPMC found that some people were having more sex during the pandemic than ever before. That group? Older men with erectile dysfunction.
People’s sexual lives contribute to the psychosocial fabric of society. We saw a huge spike in sales of daily use erectile dysfunction drugs, which suggests that some people were having more spontaneous sex than ever–with their partners at home, they wanted to always be ready.”
Benjamin Davies, M.D., Senior author, Director of the Urologic Oncology Program at UPMC Hillman Cancer Center and Professor at Pitt’s Department of Urology
In a review of National Sales Perspective data, the researchers found that sales of prescription daily-use erectile dysfunction drugs, such as tadalafil, soared after March 2020, when the country went into the nationwide lockdown.
COVID Delta Variant, The ‘Most Transmissible,’ Spreading in at Least 85 Countries: WHO – Newsweek
The COVID-19 Delta Variant is the “most transmissible” of the known variants and is spreading in at least 85 countries, warned the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO).
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus attributed the strain’s spread to the lack of vaccines provided to poorer countries and blamed richer nations for harboring the shots on Friday. He compared the current global situation to the AIDS outbreak and the 2009 swine flu pandemic when poorer countries received vaccines long after both crises ended.
“The Delta Variant, the virus, will continue to evolve,” said Maria Van Kerkhov, the COVID-19 technical lead for the WHO. “Right now our public health and social measures work, our vaccines work, our diagnostics work, our therapeutics work. But there may be a time where this virus evolves and these countermeasures don’t.”
She warned “the global situation is incredibly fragile.” The Delta Variant was first discovered in India.
Ghebreyesus described a recent meeting he attended of an advisory group established to allocate vaccines.
“They were disappointed because there is no vaccine to allocate,” he said, criticizing rich countries for declining to immediately share shots with the developing world. “If there is no vaccine, what do you share?”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Indonesia reports record 21,095 coronavirus cases – health ministry
China rewrites the history of COVID-19
Russia struggles against third wave of coronavirus pandemic
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Hawaii ending COVID test requirement for vaccinated travelers on July 8
90 Percent of Student Loan Borrowers Say Not Ready to Restart Payments
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
Has Market Power Of U.S. Firms Increased?
Are Higher Risk Homes Cheaper?
Is The Economy Getting Back To Normal?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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