Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 5.1 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 0.6 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 14,707
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 355
- There are at least 200 known cases of the Delta Plus coronavirus variant worldwide.
- COVID-19 antibodies appear to wane rapidly, so prepare for booster shots
- WHO estimates COVID-19 boosters needed yearly for most vulnerable
- Here’s Why Experts Are Comfortable With Myocarditis Numbers
- Bell’s Palsy More Likely After COVID Infection Than After Vaccine
- COVID Baby Bust Accelerates Nine Months After Lockdowns
- The COVID Test Nasal Swab Contains A Carcinogen
- Oxford researchers say they developed blood test predictor of vaccine efficacy
- Plus a lot more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Bell’s Palsy More Likely After COVID Infection Than After Vaccine – MedPage
People with COVID-19 were more likely to develop Bell’s palsy (peripheral facial nerve palsy) than people who were vaccinated against the virus, an analysis of medical records showed.
Matching COVID-19 patients with vaccinated individuals showed that people with COVID-19 were nearly seven times more likely to have a diagnosis of Bell’s palsy than those who were vaccinated (OR 6.8, P<0.001), reported Akina Tamaki, MD, of University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, and co-authors in a research letter in JAMA Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery.
And in a case-control study published in the journal, Asaf Shemer, MD, of Shamir Medical Center in Be’er Ya’akov, Israel, and colleagues found no association between recent vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine and risk of facial nerve palsy.
When Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna revealed adverse events in their trials, concerns about Bell’s palsy and the vaccines grew, observed C. W. David Chang, MD, of the University of Missouri in Columbia, writing in an invited commentary accompanying the two papers.
“Epidemiologically, linking the vaccine with an adverse event requires accurate estimation of event incidence in association with the vaccine, comparison with a nonvaccinated group, and understanding of the background incidence,” he explained.
COVID-19 antibodies appear to wane rapidly, so prepare for booster shots, study suggests – Orange County Register
The good news: If you’ve had COVID-19, you may need only one Pfizer or Moderna shot to get the formidable protection “COVID-naïve” people get with two.
The perhaps not-so-good news: It took just three months for antibodies to the virus’ spike protein to wane by some 90 percent — meaning booster shots are likely on the horizon.
In a peer-reviewed study published June 23 in the journal ACS Nano, UCLA researchers compared the immune responses of people who recovered from COVID-19 infections and then got the two-shot series, with those who never had COVID-19 and got the two-shot series.
Courtesy ACS Nano and UCLA
There were 28 people in the never-had-COVID group. A single dose of either vaccine triggered antibody levels similar to what’s seen after mild COVID-19 infections. After two doses, these folks had antibody levels approaching what’s seen after severe infections.
COVID Baby Bust Accelerates Nine Months After Lockdowns – ZeroHedge
In a previous note last month, we said one of the biggest deflationary threats looms over the U.S. economy, that is, birth rates have fallen to their lowest level in a generation. Diving deeper into the baby bust, new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows nine months after the virus pandemic was first declared a national emergency, U.S. births plunged 8% in December, according to Bloomberg.
CDC data showed an acceleration in birth declines for the second half of 2020. Full-year data shows that the number of babies born countrywide fell 4% to 3.6 million, the most significant decline since 1973, the start of the stagflation of the 1970s.
The latest CDC data disproves the mainstream media’s narrative of a “COVID Baby Boom” as much of the nation was cooped up in their homes during lockdowns.
The data appears to show millennials were not in the ‘mood’ to have a child during the global health catastrophe. The declines in births have been occurring for several years as the younger generation, trapped in insurmountable debts, can barely afford rent and groceries, nevertheless raise a child.
… Bloomberg shows a shocking chart that when factoring all the deaths in 2020 and into 1Q21, including virus-related deaths, U.S. births only exceeded deaths by 45,000 in February and March.
Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated – AP
Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.
An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.
And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.
The AP analyzed figures provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC itself has not estimated what percentage of hospitalizations and deaths are in fully vaccinated people, citing limitations in the data.
Among them: Only about 45 states report breakthrough infections, and some are more aggressive than others in looking for such cases. So the data probably understates such infections, CDC officials said.
Still, the overall trend that emerges from the data echoes what many health care authorities are seeing around the country and what top experts are saying.
[editor’s note: also read CDC says 4,100 people have been hospitalized or died with Covid after vaccine]
Oxford researchers say they developed blood test predictor of vaccine efficacy – Reuters
Researchers at Oxford University said on Thursday they have developed a method to predict the efficacy of new COVID-19 vaccines based on a blood test, potentially offering a short-cut around massive clinical trials that are increasingly difficult to conduct.
The researchers looked at the concentration of a range of virus-fighting antibodies in the blood of trial participants after they had received the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and Oxford University, now known as Vaxzevria.
By looking at which of those trial volunteers later contracted symptomatic COVID-19 and which did not, the researchers came up with a model they hope will predict how powerful other vaccines will be, based on those blood readings.
“The data can be used to extrapolate efficacy estimates for new vaccines where large efficacy trials cannot be conducted,” they said in their paper, which was posted online on Thursday and submitted for peer-review for future publication in a scientific journal.
… They noted that they did not look into the so-called cellular immune response, a major weapon of the human body against infections alongside antibodies, but more difficult to measure.
[editor’s note: efficacy is less important than safety which should be the primary goal of clinical trials]
All About the Nasal Swab. – YouTube
The swab used to test for Covid is not only Made in China, but its saturated with Ethylene Oxide (EO), which is a carcinogen, damages DNA and fertility.
Israel bringing back indoor masks – The Hill
Israel is bringing back its indoor mask mandates as the country sees a rise in coronavirus cases, particularly from the Delta variant.
Coronavirus czar Nachman Ash said Thursday the indoor mask mandate will return next week along with encouraging people not to travel abroad, The Times of Israel reported.
“I call on the public to consider whether traveling abroad is essential. It is highly advisable to avoid non-essential travel abroad,” Ash said.
Israel has seen more than 100 new cases of COVID-19 on each of the past four days.
A new and slightly changed version of the Delta coronavirus variant is spreading in a number of countries including the United Kingdom, United States and India, health officials say.
This strain, which has generated a significant amount of global media attention, is called B.1.617.2.1 or AY.1 — Delta Plus for short, and is a version of the Delta variant first detected in India in February.
It was first reported by Public Health England, a government health agency, on June 11. But the UK’s first few cases had been sequenced on April 26 — suggesting the variant may have been present and spreading by the spring.
The Indian government said it has submitted the variant to the Global Data System, and sent samples for genomic testing.
About 200 cases have been spotted in 11 countries. Health experts are investigating whether Delta Plus may be more transmissible than other strains like the Alpha or Delta variants — but it’s too early to say for sure what its effects may be.
The mutation was seen in a strain found in Qatar in March 2020, and is also found in the Beta variant, which was first detected in South Africa last fall, he told the Science Media Centre on Wednesday.
…The K417N mutation isn’t entirely new — it has “arisen independently in several viral lineages,” said Francois Balloux, director of the University College London (UCL) Genetics Institute. “The mutation may contribute to immune escape, though its impact on transmissibility is not clear-cut,” he added.
… According to the Indian government’s Covid-19 genome sequencing body, the Delta Plus variant exhibits several worrying traits such as increased transmissibility, stronger binding to receptors of lung cells, and a potential reduction in antibody response.
It’s not yet clear what effect the mutation may have on vaccine efficacy — but Julian Tang, professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, warned it could potentially give the variant “significant vaccine escape properties.”
Here’s Why Experts Are Comfortable With Myocarditis Numbers – MedPage
The CDC’s vaccine advisors concluded on Wednesday that while the risk of myocarditis is real for young people following an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine — particularly after the second dose — the benefits far outweigh the risks.
The U.S. isn’t the only country to make that call. Not long after Israel announced that 275 myocarditis cases among 5 million vaccinated people were likely tied to Pfizer’s shot (mostly in men ages 16 to 30, and especially after the second dose), the country approved vaccinating kids 12 and up.
Here’s why experts are reassured by the numbers so far, particularly when it comes to children.
How often is myocarditis occurring after vaccination in young people?
During Wednesday’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meeting, Tom Shimabukuro, MD, MPH, of the CDC’s Vaccine Safety Team, provided an updated analysis of data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
Among people age 29 and under, there were 484 preliminary reports of myocarditis or pericarditis through June 11. Of these, 323 met the CDC’s working case definition of the condition, and 148 were still under review.
Of the 323 cases, 309 went to the hospital and the vast majority (295) were discharged; 79% had fully recovered, while nine remained hospitalized and two were in the ICU.
In a larger dataset involving all reported cases, myocarditis cases were indeed higher than expected, especially for males after dose 2, up to 21 days after injection:
- Ages 12-17: 132 observed vs 1-12 expected
- Ages 18-24: 233 observed vs 2-25 expected
- Ages 25-29: 69 observed vs 2-21 expected
- Ages 30-39: 71 observed vs 5-48 expected
WHO estimates COVID-19 boosters needed yearly for most vulnerable – Reuters
The World Health Organization (WHO) forecasts that people most vulnerable to COVID-19, such as the elderly, will need to get an annual vaccine booster to be protected against variants, an internal document seen by Reuters shows.
… Vaccine makers Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) and Pfizer Inc (PFE.N), with its German partner BioNTech (22UAy.DE), have been vocal in their view that the world will soon need booster shots to maintain high levels of immunity, but the evidence for this is still unclear.
The document shows that the WHO considers annual boosters for high-risk individuals as its “indicative” baseline scenario, and boosters every two years for the general population.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
A new study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may have emerged from China as early as October 2019, but most likely in mid November.
Israel, a leader in vaccinations, is experiencing a new outbreak. Its death rate remains low.
Russia mandates vaccinations for some as virus cases surge
Is Japan’s remarkable vaccine drive in time for Olympics?
U.K. Announces New Travel Safe List But Not To The U.S.
UK reports highest increase in COVID-19 cases since February
Iran’s Supreme Leader Forgoes Western COVID Vaccines
Russia Reports Over 20K New COVID Cases, Highest Total Since January
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
After COVID, When Will Sense of Smell Return?
Yesterday, Biden and a bipartisan group of senators — five Democrats, five Republicans — announced that they had reached a compromise on part of it: a $1.2 trillion framework to fund roads, electric-vehicle charging stations, broadband and other physical infrastructure.
U.S. police officers quit and retired at unusually high rates last year. Asheville, N.C., lost more than a third of its force.
Gun Sanctuary Movement Erupts, 61% of US Counties Now Protect Second Amendment
Pfizer halted global distribution of the smoking cessation drug varenicline (Chantix) after internal testing turned up potentially unsafe levels of nitrosamine, a possible carcinogen.
Former President Trump’s then chief of staff Mark Meadows said he feared Trump wouldn’t make it out of Walter Reed during his battle with COVID-19 last year, which was apparently far worse than the White House let on.
Ohio is giving up on financial incentives to boost vaccinations rates, as more than half of the state remains unvaccinated.
Tocilizumab (Actemra), an interleukin-6 (IL-6) inhibitor, was authorized to treat certain hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the FDA announced late on Thursday.
UFO report to come from Pentagon as soon as today
Windows 11 is free, but your CPU might not be officially supported
Drought Indicators in Western U.S. Flash Warnings of the “Big One”
Amazon will contend with a nationwide unionization campaign from the Teamsters
Overcrowding and multigenerational housing arrangements increase SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk
Study confirms the low likelihood that SARS-CoV-2 on hospital surfaces is infectious
Profound Brain Changes Found in Patients Who Died of COVID-19
Nearly $3 Million Hospital Stay Shows the Cost of COVID-19
School Kids Using Orange Juice to Get False Positive COVID Test Results. Children trying to dodge returning to the classroom have been sharing the devious trick via TikTok.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
18 June 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Modest Declines Continue
Final June 2021 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Declined From Preliminary
May 2021 Real Income And Expenditures – Inflation Continues To Impact
Rail Week Ending 19 June 2021 – Continued Slowing In Intuitive Sectors
The FDAs Weak Drug Manufacturing Oversight Is A Potentially Deadly Problem
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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