Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 17.1 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 9.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 12,773
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 432
- Can antioxidants help manage neurological complications in COVID-19?
- Ivermectin to be investigated in adults aged 18+ as a possible treatment for COVID-19 in the PRINCIPLE trial
- Vaccinated Israelis may need to quarantine because of Delta variant
- China’s COVID vaccine fail
- Death rate from variant COVID virus six times higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated, UK health data show
- Why the ongoing mass vaccination experiment drives a rapid evolutionary response of SARS-CoV-2
- Unusual Variant of Guillain-Barré Syndrome Linked to COVID Vaccines
- CDC panel finds ‘likely’ link between mild heart inflammation in adolescents and COVID-19 vaccine
- Plus a lot more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Unusual Variant of Guillain-Barré Syndrome Linked to COVID Vaccines – MedPage
Two reports detailed cases of an unusual variant of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) associated with the AstraZeneca adenovirus vector COVID-19 vaccine.
One paper reviewed four cases from Nottingham, England; the other discussed seven cases from a regional medical center in Kerala, India. Both were published in Annals of Neurology.
All cases occurred in people who had received the vaccine 10 to 22 days earlier.
GBS in these cases was characterized by “a disproportionately frequent and severe bilateral facial paresis,” observed Seward Rutkove, MD, of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, and Rebecca Betensky, PhD, of New York University School of Global Public Health in New York City, in an invited commentary.
Given these reports, plus cases of GBS with prominent bilateral facial weakness in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) after the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, “the relationship between this illness and these two adenovirus vector vaccines should be investigated further,” Rutkove and Betensky wrote.
GBS is an acquired demyelinating polyneuropathy often beginning in the lower extremities and ascending over time with loss of reflexes. Some cases start a few days or weeks after respiratory or gastrointestinal viral infection. Facial weakness is not atypical, but usually is not a predominant finding compared with severe appendicular weakness and respiratory dysfunction.
“Coincidentally, shortly before our editorial office received these two manuscripts, our neurology service at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston admitted a 58-year-old man without significant past medical history who presented with marked bilateral facial weakness and modest appendicular weakness approximately 2 weeks after receiving the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, which like the AstraZeneca vaccine, is also adenovirus based with embedded spike proteins,” the editorialists noted.
Death rate from variant COVID virus six times higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated, UK health data show – Life Site
Hospitalizations are also higher among thousands of fully vaccinated individuals who test positive for the Delta COVID ‘variant of concern.’
The death rate from the Delta COVID variant is six times higher among those who were fully vaccinated for two weeks or longer than among those who never received a shot, according to data published by Public Health England on Friday.
Twenty-six people died among 4,087 who were fully vaccinated 14 days or more before testing positive for the Delta COVID variant. This equates to a death rate of 0.00636 percent, which is 6.6 times higher than the rate of 0.000957 deaths – or 34 deaths among 35,521 positive Delta cases among the unvaccinated, according to data published in a June 18 report titled “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, Technical briefing 16.”
Both death rates among the unvaccinated and vaccinated are exceedingly low (less than one percent of all positive tests) for a variant that Public Health England describes as the “dominant variant” in the UK, comprising “91 percent of sequenced cases.”
A risk assessment of the Delta variant of the pandemic coronavirus published Friday describes it as being more readily spread between people, but it is also described as a variant with “low infection severity.”
Mainstream media have latched onto the possibility that the Delta variant is producing higher hospitalization rates in parts of Scotland and England than the “first wave” of the Alpha variant, but according to the UK public health report, these data are based on “early evidence” and “limited understanding of the clinical course of the disease.”
Why the ongoing mass vaccination experiment drives a rapid evolutionary response of SARS-CoV-2 – Geert Vanden Bossche
As Sars-CoV-2 entered a highly susceptible human population, it has initially been spreading rapidly and in an uncontrollable way. This already explains why Sars-CoV-2 has been evolving rather slowly with no substantial selection of fitness-enhancing mutations occurring over the first 10 months of the pandemic (i.e., between December 2019 and October 2020). More infectious ‘variants of concern’ (VoCs, i.e., alpha [B.1.1.7], beta [B.1.351], gamma [P.1]) started to appear as of late 2020 and led to a steep increase in cases worldwide.
Molecular epidemiologists have observed that mutations within the Sars-CoV-2 spike (S) protein of these emerging, more infectious lineages are converging to the same genetic sites, a phenomenon that coincided with a major evolutionary shift in the landscape of naturally selected Sars-CoV-2 mutations (1).
Significant convergent evolution(*) of more infectious circulating Sars-CoV-2 variants is not a neutral, host-independent evolutionary phenomenon that merely results from increased viral replication and transmission but is strongly suggestive of natural selection and adaptation following a dramatic shift in the host(ile) environment the virus is exposed to (1).
Molecular epidemiologists fully acknowledge that the pandemic is currently evolving Sars-CoV-2 variants that “could be a considerably bigger problem for us than any variants that we currently know in that they might have any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or increased capacity to escape population immunity” (1). This is to say that phylogenetics-based natural selection analysis on circulating Sars-CoV-2 lineages strongly suggests that viral variants resistant to spike (S)-based Covid-19 vaccines are currently expanding in prevalence and highly suspicious of causing future epidemic surges globally.
Deployment of current Covid-19 vaccines in mass vaccination campaigns combined with the ongoing widespread circulation of Sars-CoV-2 can only increase immune selective pressure on Sars-CoV-2 spike protein and hence, further drive its adaptive evolution to circumvent vaccine-induced humoral immunity. In this regard, the expectation of an increasing number of vaccinologists matches the current observation made by genomic epidemiologists in that S protein-directed immune escape variants are highly likely to further spread and expedite the occurrence of viral resistance to the currently deployed and future (so-called ‘2nd generation’) Covid-19 vaccines.
To monitor the circulation of hazardous viral variants in the population and to be able to provide unequivocal proof of the immune selection pressure exerted by mass vaccination campaigns and the harmful consequences thereof, there is an urgent need for conducting representative viral sampling on vaccinees, including those who are healthy or only subject to mild disease, and to genetically characterize the variants they shed upon exposure to Sars-CoV-2.
Conducting a mass vaccination experiment at a global scale without understanding the mechanisms underlying viral escape from vaccine-mediated selection pressure is not only a colossal scientific blunder but, first and foremost, completely irresponsible from the perspective of individual and public health ethics.
In the absence of vaccines capable of inducing sterilizing immunity, early multidrug treatment as proposed by Prof. Dr. P. McCullough and others (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33387997/), together with global chemoprophylaxis using highly efficient antiviral drugs, will be key to save lives, reduce the hospitalization burden and dramatically diminish transmission of highly infectious or neutralizing antibody (nAb)-resistant escape variants.
Vaccinated Israelis may need to quarantine because of Delta variant – Reuters
Israel empowered health officials on Wednesday to quarantine anyone deemed to have been exposed to an especially infectious variant of COVID-19, even if they were previously vaccinated or recovered from the disease with presumed immunity.
The decision followed a warning by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Tuesday over new outbreaks caused by the Delta variant, with daily infections rising after weeks of low plateau credited to Israel’s record mass-vaccination drive.
Under the updated Health Ministry directives, vaccinated or formerly infected people can be ordered to self-isolate for up to 14 days if authorities believe they may have been in “close contact with a carrier of a dangerous virus variant”.
Such proximity could include having been passengers on the same plane, the ministry said – a possible dampener on Israel’s gradual opening of its borders to vaccinated summer tourists.
Addressing parliament, Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said fines of “thousands of shekels” would also be levied against Israeli citizens or residents who travel to countries blacklisted as high COVID-19 risks.
On June 16, the Health Ministry listed Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, India, Mexico and Russia as off-limits to Israeli citizens or residents unless they receive special permission.
Ivermectin to be investigated in adults aged 18+ as a possible treatment for COVID-19 in the PRINCIPLE trial – Principle
From today, ivermectin is being investigated in the UK as part of the Platform Randomised Trial of Treatments in the Community for Epidemic and Pandemic Illnesses (PRINCIPLE), the world’s largest clinical trial of possible COVID-19 treatments for recovery at home and in other non-hospital settings.
Led by the University of Oxford, PRINCIPLE is investigating treatments for people at more risk of serious illness from COVID-19 which can speed up recovery, reduce the severity of symptoms and prevent the need for hospital admission. The study has so far recruited more than 5,000 volunteers from across the UK.
Ivermectin is a safe, broad spectrum antiparasitic drug which is in wide use globally to treat parasitic infections.
With known antiviral properties, ivermectin has been shown to reduce SARS-CoV-2 replication in laboratory studies. Small pilot studies show that early administration with ivermectin can reduce viral load and the duration of symptoms in some patients with mild COVID-19. Even though ivermectin is used routinely in some countries to treat COVID-19, there is little evidence from large-scale randomised controlled trials to demonstrate that it can speed up recovery from the illness or reduce hospital admission.
Can antioxidants help manage neurological complications in COVID-19? – News-Medical
The use of antioxidants in Chinese herbal medicine has been widely studied, with some antiviral effects reported to occur when using these agents following infection by SARS-CoV-2. The antiviral effect of flavonoids, which are secondary plant phenolics, as well as other antioxidants has been explored for their effect on SARS-CoV-2.
These antioxidants have been found to have a positive effect with different antioxidants working in various ways. An example of this is nigellone, which was found to bind parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus such as the S protein, as well as block inflammatory markers such as interleukin-1 (IL-1) and IL-6. Other effects of antioxidants in the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 include, but are not limited to, the inhibition of viral replication as well as preventing the entry of the virus into the host cell.
As there are no specific antiviral drugs available for SARS-CoV-2, adjuvant therapies can be useful in treating COVID-19. Antioxidant compounds also have the potential to improve the prognosis of COVID-19 infections. With the ability to reduce inflammation, the researchers discuss the potential utility of incorporating dietary antioxidants into a COVID-19 patient’s treatment plan.
Some of the specific dietary antioxidants that could have a therapeutic effect include vitamins A, C, D, B6, and B12, folate, zinc, iron, copper, and selenium, as each of these micronutrients have a role in the immune response. These vitamins, particularly vitamin C, have also been shown to have an effect on COVID-19 infections.
Other antioxidants such as melatonin, which is a neuro-hormone, have been suggested to be effective in the treatment of the neurological manifestations of COVID-19. More specifically, melatonin has been shown to act as a protectant for neurons and exert anti-inflammatory effects. Other neurological protectants can also help the recovery after brain injuries due to ischemia.
Neurological management is an essential component of COVID-19 treatment. To this end, the use of antioxidants to reduce the inflammatory response while simultaneously working as a neuro-protectant could support their use as adjuvants in treating SARS-CoV-2, especially as new variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to emerge around the world.
CDC panel finds ‘likely’ link between mild heart inflammation in adolescents and COVID-19 vaccine – The Hill
A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) safety panel said there is a “likely association” of mild heart inflammation in adolescents and young adults after they were vaccinated with an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.
The initial cases of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle, and pericarditis, inflammation of the membrane surrounding the heart, reported on the federal government’s tracking system were generally mild, especially compared to traditional myocarditis, scientists said.
Most cases have been mild, with symptoms like fatigue, chest pain and disturbances in heart rhythm that quickly clear up within a day or so. CDC scientists said they will need to follow up with patients in the months ahead in order to get a complete picture of the impact.
“Clinical presentation of myocarditis cases following vaccination has been distinct, occurring most often within one week after dose two, with chest pain as the most common presentation,” said Grace Lee, chairwoman of the CDC’s vaccine safety committee.
Officials said they are tracking about 1,200 initial reports of the rare heart inflammation following doses of mRNA coronavirus vaccines have been filed with the federal government’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), though they have not yet been definitively linked to the vaccines.
Most reports came from people in their late teens and early 20s, and many more occurred after the second dose than the first.
[editor’s note: also read FDA expects to add warning to Covid-19 mRNA vaccines about risk of inflammatory heart conditions and Data will show vaccination benefits outweigh risks of heart inflammation, CDC directors says]
Cutting off unemployment benefits early is not pushing people to find work, data suggests – CNBC
- Twenty-five states are ending federal unemployment benefits (including an extra $300 a week) ahead of their official expiration on Sept. 6. Their governors are trying to encourage recipients to look for jobs.
- A dozen already did so over the past two weeks.
- Yet job searches are muted in those states, according to an analysis from website Indeed.
CDC predicts Covid-19 deaths will remain stable over next four weeks – CNN
Ensemble forecasts published Wednesday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention project that newly reported Covid-19 deaths will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, while the number of hospitalizations and cases will likely decrease.
The forecasts predicts a total of 606,000 to 612,000 Covid-19 deaths by July 17.
The previous ensemble forecast, published June 16, projected up to 613,000 deaths by July 10.
China’s COVID vaccine fail – Axios
Multiple countries that eagerly inoculated their people with China’s COVID vaccines face devastating new case surges.
Why it matters: This revelation undermines China’s vaccine diplomacy, which Beijing has prioritized in the developing world to win influence and commercial deals.
- China loved the contrast with the U.S., which has been slow in allocating surplus vaccines abroad.
- Now, developing countries are likely to look increasingly to the West, and not to Beijing, for vaccines.
“In the Seychelles, Chile, Bahrain and Mongolia, 50 to 68 percent of the populations have been fully inoculated, outpacing the United States,” the N.Y. Times reports.
- “All four ranked among the top 10 countries with the worst Covid outbreaks as recently as last week.”
- “And all four are mostly using shots made by two Chinese vaccine makers, Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech.”
By comparison, Israel used Pfizer and has 4.95 cases per million people, versus the Seychelles at 716 per million.
The bottom line: China has been offering countries tens of millions of vaccine doses.
[editor’s note: also read More than 90 countries use COVID shots from China; many of them are now battling outbreaks.]
- But if people in these countries don’t want the shots, the U.S. could be back in the driver’s seat on vaccine diplomacy.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
China port backlog will take weeks to clear, Maersk says
Chile, Mongolia and other countries that relied on Chinese-made vaccines are now battling severe outbreaks.
Iran likely had failed rocket launch, preparing for another
US could put aircraft carriers off Australia’s coast to stop China getting our iron ore, says expert
As COVID infections rise again, PM tells Israelis not to travel abroad if not vital
Food prices in North Korea soar; 1 kg of bananas cost USD 45 as borders remain closed
Cuba Says Abdala Vaccine 92.28% Effective Against Coronavirus
European regulator finds ‘good scientific grounds’ to suggest vaccine mixing is safe, effective
Portugal Weighing Lockdown for Lisbon as COVID Cases Double in 2 Weeks
Delta Variant Could Make Up 90% of Europe’s COVID Cases by End of August
Last week saw the lowest global number of Covid-19 cases and deaths since February, WHO says
10% of the world’s population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19, data shows
Alcohol sales and beverages banned from Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
“Today I’m announcing exciting news,” Jeff Zients, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator, said during a briefing for reporters. “We have already met the president’s 70% goal for all U.S. adults 30 and older. That’s right, for those ages 30 and above, 70% have had at least one shot.” The president’s original goal was to have 70% of all adults 18 and over with at least one shot by July 4, but it looks like that will not happen.
Morgan Stanley will require employees and visitors to be vaccinated.
From Biden to Congress, Big Tech is under mounting pressure
Fed’s Powell says high inflation temporary, will ‘wane’
Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board
Vaccines are driving down coronavirus case numbers in the U.S., but it’s unclear whether the highly contagious Delta variant will reverse that trend.
The Delta variant could be dominant here in a few weeks, a non-peer-reviewed preprint analysis suggested.
Nearly 900 Secret Service employees tested positive for COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021, a watchdog group said.
Medical mask or respirator mask? It made no difference in SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates among healthcare workers performing non-aerosolizing, routine patient care.
Higher levels of antibodies from COVID-19 mRNA vaccine compared to natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. Researchers found antibody levels in mRNA vaccinated individuals varied with age, gender, and previous coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection.
Lack of spectators during pandemic has noticeable effect on athletes’ performance – Without an audience, men run slower and women faster
Skin reactions after COVID-19 vaccination: Rare, uncommonly recur after second dose
Half of young adults with covid-19 have persistent symptoms 6 months after
Had COVID-19? One vaccine dose enough; boosters for all, study says
Pandemic baby bust: Births drop by fastest rate in 50 years
Number of Adult Cigarette Smokers Increased During COVID, Survey Finds
Fauci says delta will be dominant Covid variant in U.S. in weeks
Delta variant detected in all states but South Dakota
CDC is making plans for boosters of Covid-19 vaccines, Walensky says
The Imaginary COVID Debt Crisis – The Real COVID Financial Crisis
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
May 2021 Headline New Home Sales Slow Again
May 2021 Trucking Data Was Mixed
The Imaginary COVID Debt Crisis – The Real COVID Financial Crisis
A Labor Shortage With 8 Million Unemployed
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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