Written by Steven Hansen
Headline data for the CASS Freight Index show that freight volumes show grew month-over-month – and the year-over-year growth is 35.3 % (compared to the recession one year ago). In the opposite corner, the American Trucking Association (ATA) index declined but is in expansion now year-over-year.
Analyst Opinion of Truck Transport
The CASS index is inclusive of rail, truck, and air shipments. The ATA truck index is inclusive of only trucking industry member movements (ATA’s tonnage data is dominated by contract freight).
I put a heavier weight on the CASS index year-over-year which is more consistent with rail and ocean freight.
Econintersect tries to validate truck data across data sources. It appears this month that the truck employment rate of growth was stagnant. Please note using BLS employment data in real-time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted (sometimes significantly). Additionally, Econintersect believes that the BLS is not capturing all truck employment.
ATA Trucking
American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.7% in May after falling 0.6% in April. In May, the index equaled 113.7 (2015=100) compared with 114.5 in April.
Said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
Tonnage, despite falling slightly over the last two months, remains well above the lows of last year. This is no small deal considering that truck tonnage fell significantly less than many other indicators during the depths of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.
One freight segment that is helping tonnage is gasoline as demand for travel, both commuting and vacation related, picks up. I’m also expecting retail freight to remain robust as inventories are at historic lows. As retail stocks are rebuilt, it will boost freight. As has been the case for some time, trucking’s biggest challenges are not on the demand side, but on the supply side, including difficulty finding qualified drivers.
April’s reading was revised down slightly to -0.6% from our May 18 press release. Compared with May 2020, the SA index rose 3.7%, which was preceded by a 6.7% year-over-year jump in April. Year-to-date, compared with the same five months in 2020, tonnage is up 0.4%.
ATA Truck tonnage this month
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source: ATA
CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT
The following was reported by CASS:
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® grew at a record 35.3% y/y pace in May, accelerating from a 27.6% y/y increase in April. It’s safe to say the pandemic recovery is progressing much faster than the recovery from the Great Recession.
A very strong y/y result was expected against an easy comparison amid the pandemic shutdown, but the acceleration was ahead of expectations against a similar comp to April.
- At 1.269, the May Cass shipments index was the second-best result in its long history, behind only May 2018.
- On a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, the shipments index surged 5.9% m/m in May from April.
- The shipments index also turned positive on a two-year stacked basis for the first time this cycle – 3.3% above May 2019, after a 1.3% year-over-two-year decline in April.
Some of the acceleration likely continues to be noise related to the February polar vortex, but it more than reversed the 3.1% m/m decline (SA) in April. Auto production recovered a bit in May, with motor vehicle volumes on the railroads up about 4% m/m in May, although semiconductors remain a major challenge. With containership backlogs in the San Pedro Bay whittling down slower than expected despite amazing port throughput, the May surge in the Cass shipments index was also likely due to a step up in demand for inventory restocking following the recent jump in retail sales.
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https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/may-2021
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