Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 350 K to 370 K (consensus 364 K), and the Department of Labor reported 412,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 403,000 (reported last week as 402,500) to 395,000
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 84,354,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 14,828,950, down from last week’s 15,388,823
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 76 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 78 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending June 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 412,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 376,000 to 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 402,500 to 403,000
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending June 5, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 5 was 3,518,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 18,000 from 3,499,000 to 3,517,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,603,750, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week’s average was revised up by 7,500 from 3,651,250 to 3,658,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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