Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 1.5 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 22.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 10,889
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 389
- Trump administration’s hunt for pandemic ‘lab leak’ went down many paths and came up with no smoking gun
- Rapid Labor Market Healing Expected Post-Pandemic
- Common cold combats COVID-19
- Fauci emails show clear collusion with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg
- COVID and Flu Vaccines Play Nice Together
- Study: Half of US cosmetics contain toxic chemicals
- The FDA Is Failing the American People
- CDC study looks at SARS-CoV-2 testing among returning cruise ship travelers
- Could daily rapid testing replace mandatory quarantine to prevent imported SARS-CoV-2 infections?
- For years US Army hid, downplayed extent of firearms loss
- China is kicking out more than half the world’s bitcoin miners – and a whole lot of them could be headed to Texas
- Plus a lot more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
CDC study looks at SARS-CoV-2 testing among returning cruise ship travelers – News-Medical
In a recent study published on the preprint server medRxiv*, a group of researchers discusses the RT-PCR results and symptoms experienced by the travelers to illustrate the viral dynamics during asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 infection.
Overall, this group aimed to guide testing strategies after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is the virus responsible for COVID-19. In their work, the researchers conducted a retrospective, longitudinal evaluation of the repatriated travelers who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
Of the 328 repatriated travelers that were quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 45 (14%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of these 45 travelers, 28 (62%) had a positive RT-PCR result in Japan prior to their departure. Comparatively, 10 (22%) of the travelers were negative for SARS-CoV-2 in Japan but were subsequently found positive for SARS-CoV-2 upon their arrival in the United States.
All travelers who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 remained asymptomatic or experienced only mild symptoms during the isolation period on the ship. Notably, about 50% of the travelers were presymptomatic or asymptomatic at the time of their first positive test.
Several travelers remained in extended isolation due to persistent detection of SARS-CoV-2 based on contemporaneous policies. More specifically, due to prolonged viral shedding, 58% of these individuals remained in isolation three weeks post-diagnosis.
The fact that most of these travelers were asymptomatic or presymptomatic at the time of testing positive for COVID-19 highlights that symptom-based testing after potential viral exposure is not sufficient to detect all infections and prevent further transmission.
“Our findings support testing within 3-5 days after possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure to comprehensively identify infections and mitigate transmission.”
Study: Half of US cosmetics contain toxic chemicals – Phys.org
More than half the cosmetics sold in the United States and Canada likely contain high levels of a toxic industrial compound linked to serious health conditions, including cancer and reduced birth weight, according to a new study.
Researchers at the University of Notre Dame tested more than 230 commonly used cosmetics and found that 56% of foundations and eye products, 48% of lip products and 47% of mascaras contained high levels of fluorine—an indicator of PFAS, so-called “forever chemicals” that are used in nonstick frying pans, rugs and countless other consumer products.
Some of the highest PFAS levels were found in waterproof mascara (82%) and long-lasting lipstick (62%), according to the study published Tuesday in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters. Twenty-nine products with high fluorine concentrations were tested further and found to contain between four and 13 specific PFAS chemicals, the study found. Only one item listed PFAS as an ingredient on the label.
The study results were announced as a bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill to ban the use of PFAS, or perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, in cosmetics and other beauty products. The move to ban PFAS comes as Congress considers wide-ranging legislation to set a national drinking water standard for certain PFAS chemicals and clean up contaminated sites across the country, including military bases where high rates of PFAS have been discovered.
- In May, Beijing called for a severe crackdown on bitcoin mining and trading, setting off what’s being dubbed in crypto circles as “the great mining migration.”
- Texas is an ideal destination for miners, thanks to its abundance of solar and wind power, its unregulated market, and its crypto-friendly political stance.
For years US Army hid, downplayed extent of firearms loss – AP
The U.S. Army has hidden or downplayed the extent to which its firearms disappear, significantly understating losses and thefts even as some weapons are used in street crimes.
The Army’s pattern of secrecy and suppression dates back nearly a decade, when The Associated Press began investigating weapons accountability within the military. Officials fought the release of information for years, then offered misleading answers that contradict internal records.
Military guns aren’t just disappearing. Stolen guns have been used in shootings, brandished to rob and threaten people and recovered in the hands of felons. Thieves sold assault rifles to a street gang.
Army officials cited information that suggests only a couple of hundred firearms vanished during the 2010s. Internal Army memos that AP obtained show losses many times higher.
COVID and Flu Vaccines Play Nice Together – MedPage
Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate appeared to show comparable efficacy when co-administered with the influenza vaccine in a substudy from one of its clinical trials, researchers found.
A post hoc analysis of a small subgroup of participants, ages 18 to 64, who received both vaccines found COVID vaccine efficacy was 87.5%, albeit with a wide confidence interval (95% CI -0.2 to 98.4), while efficacy in the entire per-protocol population of that age group in the main study was 89.8% (95% CI 79.7-95.5), reported Paul Heath, PhD, of University of London, and colleagues.
While there was no change in influenza vaccination antibody response, there was a reduction in antibody responses to the COVID-19 vaccine in the substudy group, although it did not appear to be clinically meaningful, they wrote in a pre-print study on medRxiv.
However, local reactogenicity was either mild or largely absent among those who received both vaccines, and systemic reactogenicity events were similar across groups, they noted.
“This is the first study to demonstrate the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy profile of a COVID-19 vaccine when co-administered with a seasonal influenza vaccine,” the authors wrote.
They noted that immune interference and safety are concerns when vaccines are co-administered. Notably, the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) said that COVID vaccines may be co-administered, though it is unknown whether reactogenicity is increased with co-administration.
Fauci emails show clear collusion with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg – TechGiants
… Perhaps the most interesting part of the emails, however, was where Zuckerberg made yet another offer to Dr. Fauci that is redacted under a FOIA b (4) exemption, which is related to trade secrets and other types of confidential financial and commercial information.
Whatever it was, Fauci said he found it “very exciting,” while another NIAID official, Courtney Billet, called it “an even bigger deal” than the video.
Billet told Fauci: “The sooner we get that offer up the food-chain the better. I gave Bill Hall a heads-up about this opportunity, and he is standing by to discuss this with HHS and WH comms, but I didn’t want him to do anything without being aware of the offer.”
Days after the email, there were reports that Facebook was working together with the White House to give the federal government social media users’ location data. Media outlets reported that there were talks about the government and Facebook joining forces to track whether or not people were keeping safe distances from one another and to understand the patterns of people’s movements using data collected by Facebook.
Although the details have been kept under wraps, Facebook has admitted to being in close contact with the government throughout the coronavirus crisis. For example, they have consulted the Biden White House on what they deem “coronavirus misinformation.” Facebook has been systematically censoring those who support hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) a COVID-19 treatment, along with those who dare to mention the scientifically proven dangers of the COVID-19 vaccines on the market right now.
Zuckerberg has also spent around $400 million in private money on election processes throughout the country – money that some experts believe gave Democrat-leaning counties in battleground states significant spending advantages. His collusion with Dr. Fauci could well have had been yet another attempt to influence the outcome of the election.
Rapid Labor Market Healing Expected Post-Pandemic – The Conference Board
Unlike following past downturns, the labor market is expected to heal in record time as the US economy exits the pandemic recession. In prior recessions, the unemployment rate took four to seven years to return to its natural rate*. However, we project the unemployment rate to fall below its natural rate (currently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to be about 4.5 percent) in early 2022, only about two years after the recession started.
What are the implications of this stark recovery? Wage pressures tend to develop when the unemployment rate falls below its natural rate for a sustained period. In a tight labor market, workers can easily switch to higher-paying jobs and ask for raises. We are now experiencing a severe example of this process; wage growth accelerated in recent months, but mostly due to temporary factors that will ease toward the end of 2021. However, after this brief pause, we can also expect wage pressures to resume in late 2022 and beyond due to ongoing demographic shifts in the US population that pre-date the pandemic.
For more details on the post-pandemic recovery in employment and a variety of other timely insights on the US labor market, please visit The Conference Board’s new Labor Market Chart Hub.
* The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate that would exist in a growing and healthy economy.
Trump administration’s hunt for pandemic ‘lab leak’ went down many paths and came up with no smoking gun – Washington Post
Despite the early scientific consensus supporting natural origin, interest in the lab-leak theory never fully abated inside the U.S. government. Public health officials, intelligence officers and officials at the State Department and the National Security Council labored, with varying degrees of intensity and success, to understand the origins of the virus and whether it might have escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a world-renowned center for coronavirus research.
Most of what they learned came from public sources of information, including news articles, social media and scientific journals. Within the classified realm, a significant amount of the intelligence the United States obtained came from foreign governments, according to former officials with knowledge of the matter.
Last month, President Biden breathed new life into the origin mystery when he ordered intelligence agencies to redouble their efforts to determine whether the virus came from a lab and to report back to him in August.
Officials have said the review will examine all intelligence, including information that may have been missed during various inquiries during the Trump administration. A senior Biden administration official said a large amount of information remains unexamined — leading many former officials, who said they had searched far and wide, to conclude that the United States may have obtained new material.
This account of the government’s search for the virus’s origins is based on interviews with 28 current and former officials and experts, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations and debates.
Despite Trump’s public claims that the virus came from a lab, the evidence has always been inconclusive.
“We never got to a smoking gun, which perhaps most people are focused on,” said Anthony Ruggiero, who was the NSC senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense in the Trump administration. “We were trying to do an all-source review of the information that’s out there and trying to do it in the most honest way possible, which is you start with some theories or hypotheses and then see where the information takes you.”
Nineteen Percent of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Patients Develop Long-Haul COVID – Cision
Nineteen percent of COVID-19 patients without symptoms went on to exhibit at least one of the post-COVID conditions known as long-haul COVID 30 days or more after their initial COVID-19 diagnosis.1 This is among the findings in FAIR Health’s new white paper, the eighth of its COVID-19 studies, A Detailed Study of Patients with Long-Haul COVID: An Analysis of Private Healthcare Claims. The report uses FAIR Health’s repository of private healthcare claims data to study 1,959,982 COVID-19 patients—the largest population of COVID-19 patients ever studied for long-haul COVID—over the period from February 2020 to February 2021.
Although many patients recover from COVID-19 within a few weeks, some exhibit persistent or new symptoms more than four weeks after first being diagnosed. Names for such post-COVID conditions include not only long-haul COVID but long COVID, post-COVID syndrome or post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 or of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC).
Findings about long-haul COVID reported in FAIR Health’s white paper include:
[editor’s note: many COVID patients are still struggling with parosmia — an abnormal sense of smell, while others are developing completely new health problems.]
- The five most common post-COVID conditions across all ages, in order from most to least common, were pain, breathing difficulties, hyperlipidemia, malaise and fatigue, and hypertension.
- The odds of death 30 days or more after initial diagnosis with COVID-19 were 46 times higher for patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and discharged than patients who had not been hospitalized. Of COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized and discharged, 0.5 percent died 30 days or more after their initial diagnosis.
- Among COVID-19 patients with preexisting conditions, intellectual disabilities were associated with the highest odds of death 30 days or more after initial COVID-19 diagnosis.
- In addition to asymptomatic patients, those presenting with post-COVID conditions included 27.5 percent of COVID-19 patients who were symptomatic but not hospitalized, 50 percent of hospitalized patients and 23.2 percent of all patients who had COVID-19.
- The ranking of the most common post-COVID conditions varied by age group. For example, in the pediatric population (0-18), pain and breathing difficulties were the top two conditions, as in the all-ages cohort, but intestinal issues, rather than hyperlipidemia, were the third most common.
- Most of the post-COVID conditions that were evaluated were associated more with females than males. In the case of 12 conditions, however, males more commonly had the condition diagnosed than females. For example, of patients who had post-COVID cardiac inflammation, 52 percent were male and 48 percent female. By age, the largest share (25.4 percent) with this cardiac condition was found in a young cohort—individuals aged 19-29.
- Of the four mental health conditions evaluated as post-COVID conditions, anxiety was associated with the highest percentage of patients after COVID-19 in all age groups. Depression was second, adjustment disorders third and tic disorders fourth
The FDA Is Failing the American People – MedPage
FDA’s recent approval of a controversial drug — aducanumab (Aduhelm) — to treat people living with Alzheimer’s disease shows just how broken the agency is, and reminds us that we all have to pay for it.
A series of events that has unfolded since January tells the story.
In late April, the FDA’s Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee reviewed six accelerated approvals — a provisional pathway — involving a group of cancer immunotherapies where clinical trials had failed to confirm that the drugs extended survival or improved quality of life. Yet, in four of the six cases, the advisory committee voted to keep the accelerated approvals intact. The lesson was painfully clear: once the toothpaste is out of the tube it is hard to get it back in. Once doctors get used to using a therapy, pulling a drug from the market or in this case, revoking indications, is hard — even after the drugs fail to confirm benefit.
On June 7, the FDA approved aducanumab for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. The drug received accelerated approval because it showed it could reduce the rate of amyloid plaque on scans. What remains uncertain is whether this reduction in plaque means Alzheimer’s patients live longer or better lives — and notably, the totality of the clinical trial data do not show that. Moreover, the drug has various side effects and a whopping price tag: $56,000 a year.
In response to the FDA’s approval, three members of the Peripheral and Central Nervous System Drugs Advisory Committee who opposed approval of the drug, quit the panel in protest. Aaron Kesselheim, MD, JD, MPH, a Harvard professor called the drug “problematic,” and argued that there was little evidence it would help patients. Writing in The Atlantic, Nicholas Bagley, JD, and Rachel Sacks, JD, MPH, estimate that if the drug is prescribed to just one-third of eligible patients, it would cost Medicare $112 billion a year — a massive figure that dwarfs any other medication.
[editor’s note: this article is worth a full read. also read Relaxing FDA Restrictions on Abortion Pills Was a Mistake]
Could daily rapid testing replace mandatory quarantine to prevent imported SARS-CoV-2 infections? – News-Medical
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported as the cause of a rapidly spreading severe respiratory illness in Wuhan, China, towards the end of 2019. Since then, it has ravaged the entire world and emerged in many different variants.
In an attempt to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), most countries closed their borders to travelers entering or returning from outside or enforced lengthy and strict quarantines on those entering. The effectiveness of these policies will depend on the virus biology, including the specific variant present, the screening test used, and the degree to which travelers observe quarantine regulations.
A new study, released as a preprint on the medRxiv* server, examines the relative effectiveness of varying strategies, such as pre-flight testing, longer or shorter periods of quarantine, tests for release, or daily testing after the flight, using modeling tools. The results show that it is feasible to avoid quarantine by the use of lateral flow testing daily for five days, achieving higher reductions in the number of secondary cases caused by an infected traveler in the country of destination.
This conclusion is especially important now that several variants of concern (VOCs) have emerged and are spreading across international boundaries, posing a threat to the precarious control achieved by widespread vaccine rollouts in many developed countries.
Common cold combats COVID-19 – EurekAlert
Exposure to the rhinovirus, the most frequent cause of the common cold, can protect against infection by the virus which causes COVID-19, Yale researchers have found.
In a new study, the researchers found that the common respiratory virus jump-starts the activity of interferon-stimulated genes, early-response molecules in the immune system which can halt replication of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within airway tissues infected with the cold.
Triggering these defenses early in the course of COVID-19 infection holds promise to prevent or treat the infection, said Ellen Foxman, assistant professor of laboratory medicine and immunobiology at the Yale School of Medicine and senior author of the study. One way to do this is by treating patients with interferons, an immune system protein which is also available as a drug.
“But it all depends upon the timing,” Foxman said.
The results were published June 15th in the Journal of Experimental Medicine.
EU lifts restrictions on tourists from US – The Hill
The European Union is lifting restrictions on tourists from the United States, according to The Associated Press.
EU members agreed to ease restrictions on the U.S., adding it to a list of countries acceptable for nonessential travel.
The group also agreed to lift restrictions on North Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Lebanon and Taiwan.
The recommendations are nonbinding for member countries, and governments can still set entry requirements such as mandatory COVID-19 testing or vaccination records. The recommendation is expected to be formally adopted on Friday, the AP noted.
According to The New York Times, travelers would be able to visit for nonessential reasons, even if they have not been fully inoculated. Still, the European Commission recommended that COVID-19 testing be required, though that decision will be left up to individual governments.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
North Korea’s Kim calls food situation ‘tense’ as reports of shortages mount
N Korea’s Kim looks much thinner, causing health speculation
China set to send first crew to new space station Thursday
Israeli airstrikes target Gaza sites, first since cease-fire
India says Twitter knowingly not complying with local laws
The European Union is expected to lift its ban on nonessential travel for visitors from the U.S. on Friday.
Brazil is treating COVID-19 with a cocktail of unproven drugs.
The Indian government said it had the backing of a scientific advisory group when it doubled the interval between AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses, but the group said it hadn’t given its approval.
Foreign journalists covering Tokyo Olympics to be tracked by GPS
Paris to allow coronavirus-era outdoor dining to become permanent
South Africa’s COVID Cases Double, Prompting More Lockdown Measures
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Inside Pfizer’s race to produce the world’s biggest supply of covid vaccine
A federal judge in Louisiana blocked the Biden administration’s suspension of new oil and gas leases on federal lands and waters.
The Senate passed a bill that would make Juneteenth, which commemorates emancipation from slavery in the U.S., a federal holiday.
Birthrates have fallen as American women — across social classes — have prioritized education and their careers.
And while daily cases and deaths have drastically declined, new and dangerous variants could set back the U.S.’s progress on the COVID-19 pandemic, officials warned.
Support is growing for a nonpartisan commission to investigate the COVID pandemic in the U.S.
The Mississippi attorney general has sued insulin makers Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi, alleging they have colluded to raise prices.
A rare ACE2 variant was associated with a 40% reduction in COVID-19 infection risk and a lower risk of severe cases and hospitalizations, according to a preprint study published in MedRxiv.
Another 15 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID shot were released from the troubled Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore.
Dodge working on secret Tesla-killing electric muscle car, sources say
Prior vaccination against diphtheria and tetanus associated with less severe COVID-19
US Passes 600,000 COVID-19 Deaths as States Lift Restrictions
Like the broader economy, the housing market is split on divergent tracks, according to the annual State of the Nation’s Housing Report released on Wednesday by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. While one group of households is rushing to buy homes with savings built during the pandemic, another is being locked out of ownership as prices march upward. Those who bore the brunt of pandemic job losses remain saddled with debt and in danger of losing their homes.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
May 2021 Import Year-over-Year Inflation Grows To +11.3%
May 2021 Residential Building Growth Rate Slows
May 2021 Sea Container Imports Sizzle
Counterfeiting – The Underworld Threat To Beating COVID-19
Bonds Say Deflation Is The Risk
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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