Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 22.9 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 8,314
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 170
- In China’s latest outbreak, doctors say the infected get sicker, faster.
- Russia scrambles to contain a new surge, as most of its people appear to be avoiding the Sputnik vaccine
- Delta COVID variant: What are the symptoms of the new coronavirus strain?
- Is SARS-CoV-2 infection in pets more common than we thought?
- Even if the coronavirus did leak from a Wuhan lab, that wouldn’t necessarily mean it was engineered
- CDC Issues Health Advisory as RSV, a Common Respiratory Illness, Spreads Across Southern States
- House lawmakers introduce Big Tech bills that could break up Amazon, Google and others
- Digital dollar could push more investors into bitcoin, fund manager says
- Ranchers Sell Off Cattle, Farmers Idle Thousands Of Acres As America’s Drought Emergency Escalates
- Foreign businesses shocked by rollout of China’s anti-sanctions law
- Fed explores ‘once in a century’ bid to remake the U.S. dollar
- Plus more additional headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Econintersect published two COVID summary posts for this past week:
CDC Issues Health Advisory as RSV, a Common Respiratory Illness, Spreads Across Southern States – People
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a health advisory this week due to a seasonally-unusual increase in the spread of a common respiratory virus.
On Thursday, the CDC warned doctors and health care providers that cases of RSV, which stands for Respiratory Syncytial Virus, are on the rise in the South.
RSV infections, which are the most common cause of bronchitis and pneumonia in kids under the age of one in the U.S., typically occur in the fall and winter during flu season.
“Due to this increased activity, CDC encourages broader testing for RSV among patients presenting with acute respiratory illness who test negative for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19,” the CDC wrote in the health advisory.
Delta variant’s UK dominance sparks concerns in US – The Hill
The Delta variant’s quick dominance over other COVID-19 strains in the United Kingdom (U.K.) is sparking concerns that the U.S. could be hit with a similar wave of new cases in the coming months.
Public health experts are projecting that the highly transmissible variant will soon overtake the Alpha strain in the U.S. and later become the dominant form of the coronavirus.
The Delta strain has the potential to cause outbreaks in places with lower vaccination rates since fully vaccinated people appear to have protection against it.
Anthony Fauci, President Biden‘s chief medical adviser, said the Delta strain currently makes up more than 6 percent of U.S. coronavirus infections.
But the number of Delta cases in the U.S. is surging, much like it previously did in the U.K., which reported on Friday a 240 percent increase in these cases in just one week. The Delta variant now makes up more than 90 percent of all COVID-19 cases in the U.K.
Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, said he expects a surge in Delta cases in the U.S. late next month or in August.
Russia scrambles to contain a new surge, as most of its people appear to be avoiding the Sputnik vaccine. – New York Times
Russian officials scrambled on Saturday to slow the spread of a new wave of the coronavirus, ordering workers in Moscow to take next week off and pleading with the populace to make use of widely available vaccines.
The biggest spike appeared to be in Moscow, the Russian capital, which reported 6,701 new cases on Saturday — more than double the rise five days ago, and the highest single-day total since December. Mayor Sergey S. Sobyanin said the situation had “sharply worsened” in the past week, and that thousands of hospital beds were being repurposed to provide care for Covid-19 patients.
“According to epidemiologists, it is now necessary to at least slow down the speed of, if not stop, the spread of the virus,” Mr. Sobyanin said on his blog.
Bars and restaurants will be required to stop serving customers at 11 p.m., food courts in shopping malls will be closed, and public playgrounds and athletic grounds will be closed, Mr. Sobyanin said. Most employers will be required to keep workers home — with pay — next week. However, Mr. Sobyanin did not impose new restrictions on indoor dining beyond the 11 p.m. cutoff, reflecting the Kremlin’s prioritization of the economy in its policies during the pandemic.
Overall, Russia reported 13,510 new cases on Saturday, the highest number since February and a 50 percent rise from a week earlier. Just as worrying to epidemiologists is that Russia’s vaccination campaign appears to be stalling. President Vladimir V. Putin said on Saturday that 18 million people had been vaccinated in the country, which is less than 13 percent of the population, even though Russia’s Sputnik V shots have been widely available for months.
Ranchers Sell Off Cattle, Farmers Idle Thousands Of Acres As America’s Drought Emergency Escalates – ZeroHedge
In my entire lifetime, this is the worst that drought conditions have ever been in the western half of the country. During the past 20 years, the amount of territory in the West considered to be suffering from exceptional drought has never gone higher than 11 percent until now. Today, that number is sitting at 27 percent. The term “mega-drought” is being thrown around a lot these days to describe what is happening, but this isn’t just a drought. This is a true national emergency, and it is really starting to affect our food supply.
Just look at what is happening up in North Dakota. The vast majority of the state is either in the worst level of drought or the second worst level of drought, and ranchers are auctioning off their cattle by the thousands…
“Normally this time of the year, we’re probably looking at 400-600 head and a lot of times would be every other week,” said former auctioneer Ron Torgerson.
On Sunday and Monday, more than 4,200 head of cattle were sold at Rugby Livestock and Auction.
Needless to say, ranchers in North Dakota don’t want to get rid of their cattle, but the drought has pushed prices for hay and corn so high that many of them simply have no choice.
[editor’s note: Econintersect’s Sig Silber publishes several weather posts daily. His posts today = LIVE: Current Weather And Forecasts Up To 7 Days – Sunday June 13, 2021 and June 11, 2021 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – WOTUS And La Nina?]
In China’s latest outbreak, doctors say the infected get sicker, faster. – New York Times
As the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads in southeastern China, doctors say they are finding that the symptoms are different and more dangerous than those they saw when the initial version of the virus started spreading in late 2019 in the central city of Wuhan.
Patients are becoming sicker and their conditions are worsening much more quickly, doctors told state-run television on Thursday and Friday. Four-fifths of symptomatic cases developed fevers, they said, although it was not clear how that compared with earlier cases. The virus concentrations that are detected in their bodies climb to levels higher than previously seen, and then decline only slowly, the doctors said.
Up to 12 percent of patients become severely or critically ill within three to four days of the onset of symptoms, said Guan Xiangdong, director of critical care medicine at Sun Yat-sen University in the city of Guangzhou, where the outbreak has been centered. In the past, the proportion had been 2 percent or 3 percent, although occasionally up to 10 percent, he said.
Doctors in Britain and Brazil have reported similar trends with the variants that circulated in those countries, but the severity of those variants has not yet been confirmed.
The testimonies from China are the latest indication of the dangers posed by Delta, which the World Health Organization last month labeled a “variant of concern.” First identified this spring in India, where it was blamed for widespread suffering and death, Delta has since become the dominant variant in Britain, where doctors suggest that it is more contagious and may infect some people who have received only one of two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine.
Foreign businesses shocked by rollout of China’s anti-sanctions law – Yahoo
China’s quick rollout of a law against foreign sanctions has left European and American companies shocked and facing “irreconcilable” compliance issues, two top business groups said Friday, despite Beijing saying the move would unlikely impact investment.
The law came into effect on Thursday, adding to China’s toolbox as it builds its defences against US and EU pressure over trade and human rights.
The move also came just a week after US President Joe Biden expanded a blacklist of Chinese companies in which Americans are not allowed to invest — allowing Beijing to now hit back at those who formulate or comply with foreign sanctions.
“European companies in China are shocked by the lack of transparency and speed of this process,” European Chamber president Joerg Wuttke told AFP, referring to the passing of the new law.
With the fresh rules prohibiting organisations from implementing what Beijing deems discriminatory and restrictive measures, “foreign firms remain very much stuck between a rock and a hard place,” he said.
American Chamber of Commerce chairman Greg Gilligan cautioned that the new law “presents potentially irreconcilable compliance problems for foreign companies”.
[editor’s note: this is why there is no such thing as free trade. Also read Western Companies “Shocked” After China Rushes Through Anti-Sanctions Law]
House lawmakers introduce Big Tech bills that could break up Amazon, Google and others – CNN
Tech giants including Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google could be forced to make sweeping changes to their businesses under a series of new bills introduced Friday by House lawmakers targeting the companies’ economic dominance.
The bipartisan legislation marks Congress’s most significant push to date to rein in Silicon Valley, in some cases taking direct aim at tech giants’ underlying business models.
If successful, the legislation could force Google (GOOG) to stop promoting YouTube in its search results, or prohibit Amazon (AMZN) from selling products on its marketplace that compete directly with third-party seller listings. Apple (AAPL) could be required to relax its restrictions on iOS app developers, and Facebook (FB) could be banned from acquiring nascent companies for the purpose of stifling future rivals.
The most aggressive of the five bills, which addresses concerns about tech giants using their control over multiple business lines to favor their own products or to suppress rivals, opens the door to breakups of the companies if they don’t comply.
[editor’s note: also read Bipartisan proposals in House would mean major changes for the way tech giants operate]
Is SARS-CoV-2 infection in pets more common than we thought? – Medical News Today
- A small study that repeatedly tested the pets of people with COVID-19 suggests that 31% of dogs and 40% of cats acquired a SARS-CoV-2 infection.
- Neutered pets or those that shared a bed with a human with the infection were more likely to contract the infection.
- The study reinforces the message that people with COVID-19 should avoid close contact with their pets if possible.
- There remains no evidence that pets with the infection can pass it on to people or other animals.
Even if the coronavirus did leak from a Wuhan lab, that wouldn’t necessarily mean it was engineered – Business Insider
[editor’s note: also read The Battle Over the Coronavirus Lab-Leak Theory]
- It’s unlikely, but not impossible, that the coronavirus leaked from a Wuhan lab.
- US officials and public-health experts have called for further investigation of the possibility.
- But even if a leak did happen, that wouldn’t necessarily mean the virus was engineered in a lab.
Delta COVID variant: What are the symptoms of the new coronavirus strain? – NJ
The Delta COVID-19 variant’s symptoms differ slightly from the original virus. The variant, which initially originated in India, has a wide range of symptoms including:
- Stomach pain
- Loss of appetite
- Vomiting
- Nausea
- Joint pain
- Hearing loss
In most cases, patients with the variant are more likely to be hospitalized, suffer other complications, and require oxygen.
Dr. Ganesh Manudhane, a cardiologist in Mumbai, India, told Bloomberg News that he has also seen patients with the Delta variant who have small blood clots.
Digital dollar could push more investors into bitcoin, fund manager says – CNBC
A digital dollar won’t doom bitcoin, according to two cryptocurrency fund managers.
As central banks around the world consider digitizing their fiat currencies, the trend could actually push more investors into crypto, Grayscale’s Michael Sonnenshein and Osprey Funds’ Greg King told CNBC this week.
“That will not displace or, if anything, take market share or compete with decentralized currencies like bitcoin,” Sonnenshein, the CEO of Grayscale, said in a Monday interview on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”
“I think it all trends towards the digitization of money and something that investors and just your average person … who may not be in the investment market can glom onto as well,” Sonnenshein said.
Grayscale runs the largest bitcoin-based fund in the world, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with over $24 billion in assets under management.
While bitcoin has yet to establish itself broadly as a payment mechanism, its role as a store of value may only strengthen with the introduction of government-backed digital currencies, said King, the founder and CEO of Osprey, another bitcoin fund provider.
[editor’s note: also read What you need to know about El Salvador’s plan to use volcano-powered bitcoin as legal tender]
Fed explores ‘once in a century’ bid to remake the U.S. dollar – Politico
The Federal Reserve is taking what may be the first significant step toward launching its own virtual currency, a move that could shake up banks, give millions of low-income Americans access to the financial system and fortify the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
The idea of creating a fully digital version of the U.S. dollar, which was unthinkable just a few years ago, has gained bipartisan interest from lawmakers as diverse as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and John Kennedy (R-La.) because of its potential benefits for consumers who don’t have bank accounts. But it’s also sparking strong pushback from those with the most to lose: banks.
“The United States should not implement a [central bank digital currency] simply because we can or because others are doing so,” the American Bankers Association said in a statement to lawmakers this week. The benefits “are theoretical, difficult to measure, and may be elusive,” while the negative consequences “could be severe,” the group wrote.
The explosive rise of private cryptocurrencies in recent years motivated the Fed to start considering a digital dollar to be used alongside the traditional paper currency. The biggest driver of concern was a Facebook-led effort, launched in 2019, to build a global payments network using crypto technology. Though that effort is now much narrower, it demonstrated how the private sector could, in theory, create a massive currency system outside government control.
Now, central banks around the world have begun exploring the idea of issuing their own digital currencies — a fiat version of a cryptocurrency that would operate more like physical cash — that would have some of the same technological benefits as other cryptocurrencies.
That could provide unwelcome competition for banks by giving depositors another safe place to put their money. A person or a business could keep their digital dollars in a virtual “wallet” and then transfer them directly to someone else without needing to use a bank account. Even if the wallet were operated by a bank, the firm wouldn’t be able to lend out the cash. But unlike other crypto assets like Bitcoin or Ether, it would be directly backed and controlled by the central bank, allowing the monetary authorities to use it, like any other form of the dollar, in its policies to guide interest rates.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Lawmakers will hold a vote today that would remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power, replacing the country’s longest-serving leader with the head of a fragile alliance formed from eight ideologically diffuse parties.
To counter China’s influence, Biden urged European nations and Japan to offer hundreds of billions in loans to developing nations. While the countries agree that China’s influence is worrisome, how they’ll come together on the next steps is unclear.
Malaysia speaks against Chinese moves in South China Sea in a rare public reaction
In 5 charts: How India’s second wave is declining as quickly as it peaked
Canada rejects 300,000 doses of the J.&J. vaccine made in the U.S. because of contamination issues.
Coronavirus in Israel: 5 new cases in past day
Chinese investigators target officials over coronavirus outbreak in Guangzhou
Congo president says Kinshasa hospitals ‘overwhelmed’ by coronavirus
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The $4.5 trillion private equity industry has avoided paying billions in taxes and has managed to derail efforts to increase its tax burden, thanks to lobbyists and campaign contributions. Firms are rarely audited despite whistle-blowers’ claims of tax dodges.
A comprehensive survey of the 200 highest-paid chief executives at publicly traded companies revealed some of the biggest pay packages on record.
Why it’s been easy to vaccinate against COVID compared to HIV
More than 2M screened by the TSA, a pandemic milestone for travel
F.D.A. details failures at a Baltimore plant that led to unusable vaccine doses.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
Commercial Banks Appear Resilient Despite Pandemic
Wage Pressures In The Labor Market: What Do They Say?
Sophisticated And Unsophisticated Runs
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 13June 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 13June 2021
Where Investors Earned The Most From Bitcoin In 2020
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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