Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 18.7 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 23.0 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 13,927
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 373
- Container shipping grapples with China ports operational delays
- U.S. CDC eases travel recommendations on some 110 countries, territories including Japan
- ‘Hackers are going to have a field day:’ Security expert says amid launch of Amazon Sidewalk
- Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
- No point vaccinating those who’ve had COVID-19: Findings of Cleveland Clinic study
- COVID vaccine linked to low platelet count, nationwide study suggests
- Fauci on Blackburn video: ‘No idea what she is talking about’
- Plus many more COVID headlines
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission – Science
Airborne transmission by droplets and aerosols is important for the spread of viruses. Face masks are a well-established preventive measure, but their effectiveness for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission is still under debate. We show that variations in mask efficacy can be explained by different regimes of virus abundance and related to population-average infection probability and reproduction number. For SARS-CoV-2, the viral load of infectious individuals can vary by orders of magnitude. We find that most environments and contacts are under conditions of low virus abundance (virus-limited) where surgical masks are effective at preventing virus spread. More advanced masks and other protective equipment are required in potentially virus-rich indoor environments including medical centers and hospitals. Masks are particularly effective in combination with other preventive measures like ventilation and distancing.
U.S. CDC eases travel recommendations on some 110 countries, territories including Japan – Reuters
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has eased travel recommendations for more than 110 countries and territories, including Japan just ahead of the Olympics.
The CDC’s new ratings, first reported by Reuters and posted on a CDC website on Monday, include 61 nations that were lowered from its highest “Level 4” rating that discouraged all travel to recommending travel for fully vaccinated individuals, the agency confirmed on Tuesday.
An additional 50 countries and territories have been lowered to “Level 2” or “Level 1,” a CDC spokeswoman said. Countries ranked lowest for COVID-19 risks now include Singapore, Israel, South Korea, Iceland, Belize and Albania.
Among those now listed at “Level 3,” are France, Ecuador, the Philippines, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, Honduras, Hungary and Italy.
The U.S. State Department said it had updated its recommendations to reflect the recent methodology update, but noted not all ratings were revised because of other factors including “ commercial flight availability, restrictions on U.S. citizen entry, and impediments to obtaining COVID test results within three calendar days.”
… The agency added that many countries have lower ratings “because of the criteria changes or because their outbreaks are better controlled.” The CDC said it expects more countries to get lower, more favorable travel ratings.
Other countries being lowered to “Level 3” include Honduras, Indonesia, Jordan, Libya, Panama, Poland, Denmark and Malaysia.
Many of the countries that now have lower ratings remain on the U.S. government’s list of countries subject to severe travel restrictions – and most have been subject to the restrictions since early 2020.
The United States bars nearly all non-U.S. citizens who have within the previous 14 days been to China, the United Kingdom, Ireland, India, South Africa, Brazil, Iran and the 26 Schengen nations in Europe without border controls.
Surprise Jump in U.S. Wages Gives Inflation Debate a New Twist – Bloomberg
An unexpected jump in U.S. wages has given financial markets a new reason to worry that higher inflation may be here to stay.
Consumer prices are rising quickly as the economy reopens after the pandemic. A closely watched data release on Thursday is expected to show prices rose another 0.4% in May — pushing annual inflation above April’s 4.2%, already the highest in more than a decade.
Many policy makers and economists see the price spike as temporary — partly because they haven’t been anticipating much in the way of wage growth, which has been relatively stagnant for years at the lower end of the pay scale.
Employment is still way down from pre-pandemic levels, suggesting an ample pool of workers from which to draw, and most jobs being created right now are in low-wage industries like restaurants and tourism.
But last week’s jobs report showed a larger-than-forecast pickup in average hourly wages for a second straight month. It turns out that whatever the unemployment numbers say, there’s a shortage of people ready to work at the going rate of compensation — prompting many employers to boost pay or offer bonuses in order to staff up.
Container shipping grapples with China ports operational delays – S&P Global
Many container shipping companies have been forced to draw contingency plans to mitigate supply chain disruptions stemming from operational delays in China as new COVID-19 related cases emerge in Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
While Shenzhen has ports like Yantian and Shekou, Guangzhou houses Nansha port.
Yantian International Container Terminals, or YICT, yard density remains elevated with disinfection and quarantine measures being continuously implemented by local authorities to prevent the spread of COVID-19, Maersk said in an advisory on June 8.
“We expect continued terminal congestion and vessel delays upwards of 15 days in the coming week,” it said.
‘Hackers are going to have a field day:’ Security expert says amid launch of Amazon Sidewalk – Click Orlando
The Amazon Sidewalk is the latest virtual expansion to improve a user’s experience, but some security experts have some concerns about the launch.
Hacking expert and author Chris Hadnagy said the consequences of the new network are unknown.
“Hackers are going to have a field day looking for the vulnerabilities here,” Hadnagy said.
[RELATED: Amazon Sidewalk launches, sharing your internet with others. Here’s how to opt out]
Amazon said the Sidewalk uses the Wi-Fi signal from someone’s home and connects it through another Amazon device. The idea is a device will not lose signal and devices such as security cameras can be placed further outside a home.
However, Hadnagy said this could make your home’s private network vulnerable to literal strangers, walking outside, on the sidewalk.
“I’m having a hard time with the pros, to be honest as a security professional,” Hadnagy said. “Now someone who is sitting out on the sidewalk can access your cameras and see your family? See your kids? Your daughter walking around the house? There are just so many things that go through my mind that are like, oh no! We don’t know how this works.”
No point vaccinating those who’ve had COVID-19: Findings of Cleveland Clinic study – News-Medical
Scientists from the Cleveland Clinic, USA, have recently evaluated the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19) vaccination among individuals with or without a history of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
The study findings reveal that individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection do not get additional benefits from vaccination, indicating that COVID-19 vaccines should be prioritized to individuals without prior infection. The study is currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server.
COVID vaccine linked to low platelet count, nationwide study suggests – EurekAlert
A condition that affects the blood, known as idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), may be associated the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in rare cases, research suggests.
The very small increased risk of the condition – which is characterised by low platelet counts – is estimated to be 11 per million doses, similar to figures seen in vaccines for flu and MMR.
A low number of platelets – blood cells that help prevent blood loss when vessels are damaged – can result in no symptoms or can lead to an increased risk of bleeding or, in some cases, clotting.
Researchers say that the increased chance of developing ITP after receiving the vaccine remains smaller than the risk of developing it because of Covid-19 and should not deter the roll out of the vaccine programme.
The same risk was not found for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Other vaccines were not included in the study.
Fauci on Blackburn video: ‘No idea what she is talking about’ – The Hill
Anthony Fauci on Wednesday said he had “no clue” what Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) was referencing in a recent video she posted to her official Twitter account.
In the 50-second video, which Blackburn captioned “the facts on Fauci that big tech doesn’t want you to know,” the GOP senator accuses the nation’s top infectious diseases doctor of nefariously coordinating a “narrative” about the origins of the coronavirus with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
“I don’t have a clue what she just said. I have no idea what she’s talking about,” Fauci said during an interview with Chuck Todd on MSNBC. “I’m sorry, I don’t want to be pejorative against a United States senator but I have no idea what she’s talking about.”
[editor’s note: also read Marjorie Taylor Greene Says Fauci Liable for Creating COVID-19 ‘Bioweapon’]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Africa desperately short of COVID vaccine
Haiti Still Awaiting First COVID Vaccines as Virus Cases Spike
Man Reportedly Dies From ‘Black Fungus’ Infection in Mexico
China Calls US Probe Into COVID Lab Leak Theory ‘Ridiculous Conspiracy’
5 African Countries Have not Given any COVID Vaccines Amid Shortages
Infections are rising in Mongolia, where half the people have received the Sinopharm vaccine.
Olympic athletes will likely be subject to tracking upon arrival in Japan
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The news organization ProPublica published a scoop, based on the tax returns of thousands of wealthy Americans, including Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg. An anonymous source sent ProPublica the material after the organization had published articles about the I.R.S.’s lax enforcement of taxes on the wealthy. (Here’s ProPublica’s explanation of why it decided to publish the new story, despite privacy concerns.) The tax returns offer details on a story that has long been clear: The wealthy now pay strikingly low tax rates.
By a wide margin, the Senate passed a bipartisan bill to fund technology and manufacturing to counter China.
Criminals thought they were chatting on encrypted phones, but the F.B.I. was behind the devices. The global sting led to more than 800 arrests, officials said.
Pfizer and BioNTech began testing COVID vaccines in children under 12; Moderna said results of its testing in kids as young as 5 could be available in the fall.
US increasingly unlikely to meet Biden’s July 4 vax goal
Not even ProPublica knows the source who provided blockbuster ‘Secret IRS Files’
The highly transmissible Delta variant first identified in India accounts for 6% of new U.S. infections and vaccines appear to be highly effective against it, the Biden administration said.
J&J COVID-19 vaccine protects against virus variants, study finds
Just over 61% of the vaccine-eligible U.S. population (age 12 and up) have received a COVID shot and 50.1% are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.
The Pentagon is shuttering most mass vaccination sites it opened alongside FEMA as demand for the shot slows.
Houston Methodist suspended 178 hospital workers who failed to show they were fully vaccinated by a June 7 deadline.
Brain Vein Clots Less Likely With Vaccine Than With Severe COVID
Two Carnival ships get CDC approval to resume passenger sailings out of US
Mix and match COVID-19 vaccines safe and effective: German study
SARS-CoV-2 immunity persists for up to 11 months after natural infection
SARS-CoV-2 detectable — though likely not transmissible — on hospital surfaces
Large Share of COVID-19 Misinformation on Social Media Spread by Bots
US will donate 500 million Pfizer doses to other countries: reports
Mississippi Will Need Nearly A Year to Get 70% COVID Vaccinated at Current Pace
Cruise lines want to sail out of Florida, but a vaccine passport ban stands in the way.
Most states have administered fewer than half of the J&J doses they’ve received
FDA looking at extending J&J vaccine expiration dates
J&J says its working to extend the shelf-life of its Covid-19 vaccine
About half of US states have scaled back daily Covid-19 data reporting
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recession With Hyperlinks
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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