Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 26.0 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 9.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 16,270
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 598
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 88.6 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened and deaths worsened
- Former Head of British Intelligence Says China Likely Destroyed Any Evidence of COVID Lab Leak Theory
- Slow to start, China mobilizes to vaccinate at headlong pace
- Known pharmaceutical compounds could provide new therapies for COVID-19
- Scientists Find Genetic Link to Loss of Smell Among COVID-19 Patients
- How to obtain immune bovine milk to strengthen the body against COVID-19
- Moderna Plans Mix of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses With New Lonza Deal
- These are the countries set to receive the first round of Covid-19 vaccine doses from the US
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Slow to start, China mobilizes to vaccinate at headlong pace – AP
In the span of just five days last month, China gave out 100 million shots of its COVID-19 vaccines.
After a slow start, China is now doing what virtually no other country in the world can: harnessing the power and all-encompassing reach of its one-party system and a maturing domestic vaccine industry to administer shots at a staggering pace. The rollout is far from perfect, including uneven distribution, but Chinese public health leaders now say they’re hoping to inoculate 80% of the population of 1.4 billion by the end of the year.
As of Wednesday, China had given out more than 704 million doses — with nearly half of those in May alone. China’s total is roughly a third of the 1.9 billion shots distributed globally, according to Our World in Data, an online research site.
The call to get vaccinated comes from every corner of society. Companies offer shots to their employees, schools urge their students and staffers, and local government workers check on their residents.
That pressure underscores both the system’s strength, which makes it possible to even consider vaccinating more than a billion people this year, but also the risks to civil liberties — a concern the world over but one that is particularly acute in China, where there are few protections.
[editor’s note: also read China Administering COVID Vaccines at Rate of 19 Million Shots Per Day]
Scientists Find Genetic Link to Loss of Smell Among COVID-19 Patients – 23andMe
Researchers at 23andMe have identified a new genetic variant associated with COVID-19 induced loss of smell and taste.
The findings, published in a preprint released on medRxiv, note that the genetic variant is near two olfactory genes. Loss of smell and, or taste — also called anosmia — is a hallmark symptom of COVID-19. It is often the earliest indication of infection, and in some cases, the only symptom. An individual with one copy of the variant is about 11.5 percent more likely to lose their sense of smell or taste if infected compared to someone with zero copies.
The research adds another piece to the COVID-19 puzzle, and it builds on the work already done by 23andMe over the last year that includes new findings around the role blood type plays in severity and susceptibility to the virus. This piece of the puzzle is intriguing because the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 first enters the body and accumulates in olfactory support cells. The findings may offer researchers important insights into the biological pathway for infection.
For these findings, the researchers again used data from more than one million people who consented to participate in 23andMe’s COVID-19 Study. By examining the differences in the genome between COVID-19 cases who did and did not experience loss of taste or smell, our scientists identified an association on chromosome 4 near the olfactory genes UGT2A1 and UGT2A2 .
In an email dated February 1, 2020, Fauci wrote to the National Institutes for Allergies and Infectious Disease (NIAID) deputy director, Hugh Auchincloss, instructing him to read a paper and an article discussing SARS research, adding that they urgently needed to speak. “You have tasks today that must be done,” Fauci said.
The email included an attachment, “SARS gain of function.pdf”. The file contained a paper published in Nature in 2015 called “A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence.”
Auchincloss wrote back saying that the paper “says the experiments were performed before the gain of function pause but have since been reviewed and approved by NIH.” He added that a colleague was trying to determine “if we have any distant ties to this work abroad
Gain-of-function research involves lab experiments on pathogens to make them either more contagious or more fatal. The research is billed as a way to help better understand how viruses work and prevent pandemics.
A day later, on February 2, Fauci was made aware of a now-withdrawn paper that claimed Covid-19 shared similarities with HIV. In an email titled “More on evolution of coronavirus,” NIH Director Francis Collins shared the paper with Fauci, describing it as “roundly debunked.”
“The Indian paper is really outlandish,” Fauci responded.
In another email exchange from the same day, Fauci was told by Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, a London-based charity that focuses on health research, that World Health Organization Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Bernhard Schwartlander, his cabinet chief, were in “conclave,” presumably to discuss the WHO’s response to Covid-19.
“If they do prevaricate, I would appreciate a call with you later tonight or tomorrow to think how we might take forward,” Farrar wrote, using a rather eloquent term for “evade.”
Farrar then added: “Meanwhile….,” and included a link to a ZeroHedge article about the HIV-Covid paper, titled: “Coronavirus Contains ‘HIV Insertions’, Stoking Fears Over Artificially Created Bioweapon.”
Fauci long maintained that Covid-19 was likely transmitted to humans by animals, but last month he conceded it was possible that the virus may be man-made. Although initially dismissed by media outlets, the theory that the virus may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology has gained prominence, as experts and intelligence officials state that it has merit.
[editor’s note: Anthony Fauci Says Email Comments ‘Ripe To Be Taken Out of Context’ and Meadows Slams ‘Backchannel’ With Chinese Scientists After Fauci Email Dump and Dr. Anthony Fauci Book Scrubbed From Amazon After Email Dump and Most Americans Now Think COVID Came From Wuhan Lab, New Survey Shows and Fauci calls idea of deliberate coronavirus lab leak “quite far-fetched” and Knowing what he knows now, Fauci says “of course” he would have done some things differently and Fauci responds to critics who say email from Wuhan lab funder was too “cozy”]
First in line, still no shot: Surprising number of hospital workers refuse vaccines – MSN
Hospital workers, many of whom risked their lives during this pandemic and saw the ravages of the virus up close, were first in line for the vaccines. Yet Nevens is among a sizable group of hospital workers still not vaccinated.
USA TODAY surveyed some of the largest hospital networks and public hospitals in the country. At the nine networks that responded, fully vaccinated rates ranged from 53% to 72%. Rates among 15 of the nation’s largest public hospitals ranged from 51% to 91%.
The survey encompassed 276 hospitals, or about 4.5% of the nation’s hospitals. Most fell below President Joe Biden’s goal of 70% by July 4. Staff included ranged from workers with medical training, such as doctors and nurses, to those in support roles, such as cafeteria workers.
The fact that so many hospital workers remain unvaccinated is troubling news for public health officials who are counting on the vaccines to stop the spread of the virus. Experts worry that the rest of the population will follow suit.
“I think it’ll be a bit of a struggle to get to that 70-to-75% vaccination rate,” said Stacey Gabriel, the chief executive officer of the 80-bed Hocking Valley Community Hospital in Logan, Ohio, where only 50% of her workers are vaccinated.
Known pharmaceutical compounds could provide new therapies for COVID-19 – News-Medical
… From the thousands of drugs screened, 90 compounds showed particularly promising outcomes in reducing viral replication in at least one of the human cell lines cultured. Such a promising number of initial candidates were then further divided to identify the most promising outcomes.
From the 90 selected compounds, 13 had a high potential to act as effective COVID-19 treatments. This was primarily based upon their pharmaceutical profile, characterized by drug potency and cell line-independent activity or a likely mechanism of action, pharmacokinetic properties as well as human safety profiles.
A further 4 of those 13, halofantrine, nelfinavir, simeprevir, and manidipine, are already FDA-approved drugs and 9 others are in various stages of the drug development process.
“Our results raise the possibility of a number of promising avenues for repurposing existing oral medications with efficacy against SARS-CoV-2,” he adds. “We have identified promising existing drugs and are also leveraging our findings to develop optimized antivirals that will be more effective against SARS-CoV-2, including variants and drug-resistant strains, as well as against other coronaviruses that currently exist or might emerge in future.”
Moreover, when using a combination of drug screening, researchers found a total of 19 drugs displaying additive effects when administered alongside an existing antiviral treatment, remdesivir. This FDA-approved treatment is currently used for patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and further compounds found in this study could benefit treated individuals when applied with it. In addition, 2 drugs, riboprine and 10- deazaaminopterin, actually had a synergistic effect when used with remdesivir, amplifying the antiviral abilities of remdesivir even further.
How to obtain immune bovine milk to strengthen the body against COVID-19 – EurekAlert
Physiologically, milk contains biocomponents that are highly protective against infections. In light of this, the AGR-149-Infectious Diseases group at the University of Cordoba’s Department of Animal Health is doing research that focuses on cow’s milk as a possible source of Covid-19 control. The results have been published, partially, in the journal Frontiers in Immunology.
This is possible due to “crossed immunity”, and there is already evidence of the protection it provides, explained one of the principal investigators, Mari Carmen Borge. “It has been shown that the immune cells that the vaccinated animal generates against bovine coronavirus are capable of controlling other coronaviruses as well, such as SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid-19”.
Antonio Arenas, principal investigator on the project, spoke of the similarity that exists between Bovine Coronavirus (BCoV) and SARS-CoV-2 to explain the effectiveness of this technique. “There are a number of highly conserved structures of the virus that are similar in both viruses. In fact, both belong to the genus Betacoronavirus. Thus, cow’s milk could have a total or partial blocking action against SARS-CoV-2”.
In this way, these bovine antibodies could neutralize the virus in people who are already infected, or help prevent the disease in those who have not been vaccinated, or who have been, but have not developed immunity.
Thus, the aim is to come up with a supplement that would boost the immune system through a dairy preparation with a high level of antibodies, helping the system control infection through different immune pathways.
Moderna Plans Mix of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses With New Lonza Deal – Medscape
Moderna is gearing up to halve the dose of its COVID-19 vaccine, the U.S. drugmaker said on Wednesday, so that it can also be used to combat variants and inoculate children.
It has agreed a deal with Swiss-based drugmaker Lonza which said a new drug substance production line in Geleen, Netherlands, will have capacity to make ingredients for up to 300 million doses annually at 50 micrograms per dose.
“We’re assuming that as of 2022, we are going to have a mix of dose levels on the market,” a spokeswoman for Moderna said, following the announcement of Lonza’s new production.
Moderna, which has been studying lower-dose versions to help stretch supplies of its vaccine, has been delivering an approved 100-microgram dose to date.
The drugmaker has said early booster shot data for a 50-microgram version showed it helped protect against emerging virus variants. Lower-doses may also be given to children who may not require a full one.
Combined with a previous deal with Spain’s Rovi, Moderna’s pact with Lonza brings 50-microgram production in Europe to up to 600 million doses annually, with the capacity due to come on line this year.
Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of British intelligence service MI6, said he believes that China destroyed any possible evidence that the coronavirus leaked from a lab in Wuhan.
Although the possibility that the COVID-19 virus leaked from a Chinese lab was initially dismissed by a number of prominent scientists, many scientists and President Joe Biden have recently said the theory should be investigated further. Last week, Biden ordered intelligence officials to “redouble” their efforts to investigate the pandemic’s origins—including the theory that it leaked from a top research lab in Wuhan. But Dearlove told the Telegraph newspaper’s Planet Normal podcast on Thursday that any evidence would likely have been destroyed already by the Chinese.
“We don’t know that’s what’s happened, but a lot of data has probably been destroyed or made to disappear, so it’s going to be difficult to prove definitely the case for a gain-of-function chimera being the cause of the pandemic,” Dearlove, who led MI6 from 1999 to 2004, said.
He warned that China is “a pretty terrifying regime and does some things we consider unacceptable and extreme in silencing opposition to the official line of the government.” Dearlove criticized what he referred to as “extraordinary behavior” from scientists in Western countries who had “shut down any debate” over the origins of the virus.
These are the countries set to receive the first round of Covid-19 vaccine doses from the US – CNN
The Biden administration on Thursday announced a plan to share the first 25 million Covid-19 vaccine doses with the rest of the world and an overall framework of distributing at least 80 million doses by the end of June.
At least 75% of these donated vaccines will be shared with the COVAX global vaccination program, and 25% will be shared directly with countries in need, the White House said.
As part of the first round of 25 million doses being distributed, 19 million will be shared through COVAX, which is an initiative led by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, along with the World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.
Here’s a breakdown of where the doses will be distributed:
- Approximately 6 million doses will be sent to South and Central America — specifically to Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, Bolivia, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Haiti and other Caribbean Community countries, as well as the Dominican Republic.
- Approximately 7 million doses will be distributed in Asia to India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Maldives, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Papua New Guinea, Taiwan and the Pacific Islands.
- Approximately 5 million doses will be sent to Africa to be shared with countries that will be selected in coordination with the African Union.
The other 6 million doses from the first round of 25 million will be sent to Mexico, Canada, South Korea, West Bank and Gaza, Ukraine, Kosovo, Haiti, Georgia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Yemen, and will be used to vaccinate United Nations frontline workers.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Global Food Prices Surge to Near Decade High, UN Says
594 doctors have died due to COVID-19 in second wave: Indian Medical Association
Delays Expected at China’s Yantian Port on Covid Outbreak
In a South African trial of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID shot, thromboembolic events were seen in five health workers with known risk factors, but there were no cases of vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia.
US urging Americans to leave Afghanistan due to sharp COVID-19 rise
Thousands of Olympic volunteers quit ahead of Tokyo Games
International Lawmakers Push for U.S.-Canada Border Reopening
Bahrain Urges Some Immunized with China’s COVID Vaccine to Get Second Shot
As vaccine delays grind on across Africa, the coronavirus surges.
Canada will soon allow vaccine mixing for second doses.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
U.S. inflation is transitory but could become more persistent, says ex-Fed official Dudley
President Biden announced programs to pick up the U.S. vaccination rate, including free child care and sports tickets.
Pandemic stimulus checks sharply cut food shortages, depression and other measures of hardship.
Wisconsin lawmakers are advancing a slate of bills that would bar business owners, university leaders or government officials from requiring the COVID-19 vaccination or treating unvaccinated people differently.
School scholarships, custom hunting rifles and shotguns, and over $2 million in cash are being used to entice vaccine holdouts in West Virginia.
Over 60% of the vaccine-eligible U.S. population (age 12 and up) have received a COVID shot, with 49% fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.
A dozen states have now partially or fully vaccinated 70% of adults.
Abbott said it expects to take a financial hit due to the plummeting demand in COVID testing.
Vaccine requirements at U.S. universities present new hurdles for international students.
Who Fact Checks Health and Science on Facebook?
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2021 ADP Employment Grew 978,000
May 2021 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Improve And Remain Well Into Expansion
29 May 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Modestly Declines
1Q2021 Final Headline Productivity Improves
29 May 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improvement Continues
May 2021 Job Cuts Remain Low At The Start Of Summer
The ‘Grief Pandemic’ Will Torment Americans For Years
Korean Exports Show Strength In Crisis
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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