Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 28.5 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.4 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 5,602
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 150
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 88.2 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Vitamin D may be ineffective in protecting against COVID-19
- Homeland Security Walks Back Director’s Claim US Taking “Close Look” At Vaccine Passports
- Washington Post Becomes Latest Media Outlet To Walk Back “Debunked Conspiracy Theory” Wuhan Lab Leak Coverage
- CDC investigating cases of myocarditis and pericarditis after injection with mRNA vaccines
- COVID Vaccines “May” Bring Avalanche of Neurological Disease
- The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission explains how companies can mandate vaccines for workers
- US debates fairest way to share spare vaccine with the world
- Fauci will be gone in 90 days
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Who benefits? US debates fairest way to share spare vaccine – AP
In April, the Biden administration announced plans to share millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses with the world by the end of June. Five weeks later, nations around the globe are still waiting — with growing impatience — to learn where the vaccines will go and how they will be distributed.
To President Joe Biden, the doses represent a modern-day “arsenal of democracy,” serving as the ultimate carrot for America’s partners abroad, but also as a necessary tool for global health, capable of saving millions of lives and returning a semblance of normalcy to friends and foes alike.
The central question for Biden: What share of doses should be provided to those who need it most, and how many should be reserved for U.S. partners?
The answer, so far at least, appears to be that the administration will provide the bulk of the doses to COVAX, the U.N.-backed global vaccine sharing program meant to meet the needs of lower income countries. While the percentage is not yet finalized, it would mark a substantial — and immediate — boost to the lagging COVAX effort, which to date has shared just 76 million doses with needy countries.
The Biden administration is considering reserving about a fourth of the doses for the U.S. to dispense directly to individual nations of its choice.
The growing U.S. stockpile of COVID-19 vaccines is seen not only as a testament to American ingenuity, but also its global privilege.
More than 50% of Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and more than 135 million are fully vaccinated, helping bring the rate of cases and deaths in the U.S. to the lowest level since the earliest days of the pandemic.
Homeland Security Walks Back Director’s Claim US Taking “Close Look” At Vaccine Passports – ZeroHedge
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Friday walked back comments made by the agency’s chief, who suggested earlier in the day that the federal government was “taking a very close look” at the idea of requiring vaccine passports to enter or leave the United States.
“Looking ahead to summer, Europe and other countries are going to open up. Could we see vaccine passports to travel internationally either into or out of the U.S.?” an ABC “Good Morning America” host asked Alejandro Mayorkas, head of the DHS.
“We’re taking a very close look at that,” Mayorkas responded.
But DHS said Mayorkas was only talking about how Americans will need to use such passports to enter other countries.
“We’ve always said we’re looking at how we can ensure Americans traveling abroad have a quick and easy way to enter other countries. That’s what the secretary was referring to; ensuring that all U.S. travelers will be able to easily meet any anticipated foreign country entry requirements,” an agency spokesperson told news outlets.
“There will be no federal vaccinations database and no federal mandate requiring everyone to obtain a single vaccination credential,” the department also said.
The White House had responded to Mayorkas’ statement by saying the same thing.
Asked to explain his comments, spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Air Force One:
“Again, the U.S. government recognizes that other countries have or may have foreign-entry requirements. We will be monitoring these and helping all U.S. travelers meet those, but we will not be—there will be no federal mandate requiring anyone to obtain a single vaccination credential.”
The Biden administration has previously said multiple times that it will not require vaccine passports, or proof of vaccination, on the federal level.
However, the administration is working with private companies to set guidelines for passport systems.
Fauci will be gone in 90 days – American Thinker
A lot has happened in the last two weeks that may result in the retirement of Dr. Anthony Fauci. The face of the government’s Covid-19 response may have finally met his Waterloo. The way things are going, a forced retirement at age 80 may be the best outcome that “Dr. Doom” can expect.
It turns out that all roads to Covid-19 – even more than we expected – lead back to Fauci. Finally, after a year of stonewalling and obfuscation, the news about Fauci’s apparent role in directing U.S. government funding to the notorious Wuhan Virology Lab – and the identification of that facility as the source of the worldwide Covid-19 pandemic – have gone incredibly mainstream. Previously, reporting and analysis on these issues had been the province of political outliers like Stephen K. Bannon and the guests on his six-day-a-week War Room Pandemic internet program – which is now getting renewed attention.
As I reported here in “Dr. Fauci Finally Unmasked” on May 17, the cat was coming out of the bag – and “inevitably the truth will out.” But I could not have imagined how quickly the tide against Fauci would turn.
The new bottom line was articulated by Dr. Peter Navarro, who was a top assistant to President Trump during POTUS 45’s entire four years in the White House. Since last fall, Navarro has been indefatigable in his probing of last November’s election fraud and the equally monstrous frauds, cover-ups, and PsyOps surrounding the Covid-19 Plandemic.
Last week, speaking on an episode of Bannon’s War Room Pandemic where he is a frequent guest, Navarro said out loud “Fauci will be gone in 90 days.” This prediction seems like less of a pipe dream every day as the mainstream media does a 180 degree turn on their previous disinterest in the stories of Covid-19’s origin and Fauci’s possible role in it – not only in failing miserably to control the virus but in being an accomplice to its creation in the first place.
[editor’s note: this post is opinion. I personally think Dr. Fauci has done several things that need much further probing]
New Research: COVID Infection Antibodies Could Last Years – Mercola
- Data suggest antibodies developed during a mild COVID-19 illness may produce long-lasting antibodies that protect you against another infection
- Cardiologist and vaccine advocate R. Hooman Noorchashm warns people to avoid the vaccine if they had COVID-19 in concern that a hyperinflammatory response may increase your risk of adverse side effects
- Deaths from the COVID-19 vaccines have exceeded all other vaccines in the last 15 years; early treatment may have prevented 85% of deaths from COVID-19
- Deaths from the vaccine may rise further in the fall and winter months if the vaccine triggers an antibody-dependent enhancement in the immune system, increasing the risk of severe disease
Quit Ignoring Natural COVID Immunity – MedPage
Epidemiologists estimate over 160 million people worldwide have recovered from COVID-19. Those who have recovered have an astonishingly low frequency of repeat infection, disease, or death. That immunity from prior infection protects many people now where vaccines are not yet available.
Earlier this month the World Health Organization released a scientific update stating that most people who have recovered from COVID-19 develop a strong protective immune response. Importantly, they summarize that within 4 weeks of infection, 90% to 99% of people who recover from COVID-19 develop detectable neutralizing antibodies. Furthermore, they conclude — given the limited amount of time to observe cases — that the immune response remains strong for at least 6 to 8 months after infection.
This update echoes what the NIH reported in January 2021: The immune response of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID-19 had durable memories of the virus up to 8 months after infection. The NIH went further to state that those findings “provide hope” that people who get vaccinated will develop similar lasting immunity.
So why are we so focused on vaccine-induced immunity — in our goals to reach herd immunity, our gatekeeping on travel, public or private events, or mask use — while ignoring natural immunity? Shouldn’t those who have natural immunity also be able to return to “normal” activities?
Numerous scientists have found that there is a decreased risk of re-infection and extremely low rates of hospitalization and death due to repeat infection. The range of reduction of re-infection from COVID-19 was between 82% to 95% among six studies that encompassed nearly 1 million people conducted in the U.S., the U.K., Denmark, Austria, Qatar, and among U.S. Marines. The study in Austria also found that the frequency of re-infection from COVID-19 caused hospitalization in only five out of 14,840 (0.03%) people and death in one out of 14,840 (0.01%).
In addition, newer U.S. data, released after the January NIH announcement, found protective antibodies lasting up to 10 months following infection.
The Washington Post has become the latest media outlet to reverse its earlier insistence that the Wuhan lab leak theory was a “debunked conspiracy theory.”
The newspaper published an article in February 2020 by Paulini Firozi labeling the explanation a “debunked conspiracy theory” but has now been forced to issue a retraction.
“Earlier versions of this story and its headline inaccurately characterized comments by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) regarding the origins of the coronavirus,” states the retraction.
“The term “debunked” and the Post’s use of “conspiracy theory” have been removed because, then as now, there was no determination about the origins of the virus.”
The correction was made after independent journalist Michael Tracey “reported that journalist @paulina_milla had flagrantly mischaracterized a key expert she quoted in the article.”
CDC investigating cases of myocarditis and pericarditis after injection with mRNA vaccines – CDC
Since April 2021, increased cases of myocarditis and pericarditis have been reported in the United States after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna), particularly in adolescents and young adults. There has not been a similar reporting pattern observed after receipt of the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine (Johnson & Johnson).
In most cases, patients who presented for medical care have responded well to medications and rest and had prompt improvement of symptoms. Reported cases have occurred predominantly in male adolescents and young adults 16 years of age and older. Onset was typically within several days after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, and cases have occurred more often after the second dose than the first dose. CDC and its partners are investigating these reports of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.
CDC continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for everyone 12 years of age and older given the risk of COVID-19 illness and related, possibly severe complications, such as long-term health problems, hospitalization, and even death.
Recommendations for Clinicians
- CDC continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for everyone 12 years of age and older given the greater risk of other serious complications related to COVID-19, such as hospitalization, multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), or death.
- Report all cases of myocarditis and pericarditis post COVID-19 vaccination to VAERSexternal icon.
- Consider myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents or young adults with acute chest pain, shortness of breath, or palpitations. In this younger population, coronary events are less likely to be a source of these symptoms.
- Ask about prior COVID-19 vaccination if you identify these symptoms, as well as relevant other medical, travel, and social history.
- For initial evaluation, consider an ECG, troponin level, and inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. In the setting of normal ECG, troponin, and inflammatory markers, myocarditis or pericarditis are unlikely.
- For suspected cases, consider consultation with cardiology for assistance with cardiac evaluation and management. Evaluation and management may vary depending on the patient age, clinical presentation, potential causes, or practice preference of the provider.
- For follow-up of patients with myocarditis, consult the recommendations from the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiologyexternal icon.
- It is important to rule out other potential causes of myocarditis and pericarditis. Consider consultation with infectious disease and/or rheumatology to assist in this evaluation.
- Where available, evaluate for potential etiologies of myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly acute COVID-19 infection (e.g., PCR testing), prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (e.g., detection of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies), and other viral etiologies (e.g., enterovirus PCR and comprehensive respiratory viral pathogen testing).
COVID Vaccines May Bring Avalanche of Neurological Disease – Mercola
[editor’s note: I do not consider this Mercola post as fact but more of a postulation of what may or may not happen. I find in life, most postulated negative scenarios do not happen but I keep them in memory for a time when data starts to imply that it is happening]
- The typical unprecedented vaccine takes 12 years to develop, and of all the unprecedented vaccines in development, only 2% are projected to ever make it through all Phase 2 and 3 clinical phases of testing
- The COVID-19 vaccine was developed with Operation Warp Speed in less than one year, which makes it virtually impossible to assess safety and efficacy, as the vaccine has not been adequately tested
- Five months into the vaccination campaign, statistics tell a frightening story. Research shows deaths are 15 times higher during the first 14 days after the first COVID injection among people over the age of 60, compared to those who aren’t vaccinated
- Another study shows that after COVID-19 vaccines were implemented, overall death rates have increased, with the exception of a few areas. It appears countries in which COVID-19 vaccines have not raised mortality rates are also not using glyphosate
- In the next 10 to 15 years, we are likely to see spikes in prion diseases, autoimmune diseases, neurodegenerative diseases at younger ages, and blood disorders such as blood clots, hemorrhaging, stroke and heart failure
Vitamin D may be ineffective in protecting against COVID-19 – News-Medical
A new study published in PLOS Medicine suggests that genetic evidence does not support vitamin D as a protective measure against COVID-19.
The ability of vitamin D to protect against COVID-19 is of valuable interest for public health but has limited supporting evidence. Previous studies using observational data have suggested that increased vitamin D levels may protect against COVID-19. However, these findings proved inconclusive and possibly subject to confounding, with limited consideration of genetic factors.
However, results from researchers based at McGill University in Quebec, Canada, including Guillaume Butler-Laporte and Tomoko Nakanishi and colleagues now indicate that the association between Vitamin D production and COVID-19 protection is uncertain.
The team conducted a Mendelian randomization study using genetic variants strongly associated with increased vitamin D production to assess the relationship between vitamin D levels and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. Genetic data was collected from 4,134 individuals with COVID-19, and 1,284,876 without COVID-19 from 11 countries.
The analysis aimed to determine whether genetic predisposition for higher vitamin D levels was associated with less severe disease outcomes in people with COVID-19. Such a relationship would prove a link between Vitamin D levels and disease resilience.
Results of the analysis revealed no association between genetically determined Vitamin D levels and the outcome of COVID-19 infection. Indeed, individuals showed no differences in susceptibility, hospitalization, or severe disease.
The E.E.O.C. explains how companies can mandate vaccines for workers. – New York Times
At the urging of business groups, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has made clear how companies can issue vaccine mandates to workers coming back to the office, and what incentives those employers can offer to promote inoculation.
Companies can require vaccines only of employees returning to the workplace, and not those who work outside the office, the E.E.O.C. said in guidance released on Friday. But doing so still counts as a mandate, so companies must give the same legally required considerations that companywide vaccine requirements would entail, like making accommodations under the Americans with Disabilities Act for employees who can’t receive the vaccine. That means allowing for exceptions for those who may be unable to take the vaccine for health reasons, like an allergy.
Jessica Kuester, an employment benefits lawyer at the law firm Ogletree Deakins, said that specification was important. “I worry that some employers were sort of going down the wrong path, and thinking that it wasn’t that big of a deal to have a vaccination requirement,” she said.
The E.E.O.C. acknowledged in its guidance there may be other laws — like state laws — that offer opposing views. And it reminded employers to consider the fact that access to the vaccine is not yet equitably distributed.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
China reports surge of new COVID-19 cases in Guangzhou city, triggering flight cancellations – Economic Times
WHO renames coronavirus variants with ‘non-stigmatizing’ Greek letters
WHO’s top emergency expert said the search for COVID’s origin is being “poisoned by politics“; separately, the head of the organization called for an international treaty to strengthen pandemic preparedness and fight future outbreaks.
On Friday, the EU’s drug regulator approved the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for use in kids ages 12 to 15.
Peru said its true COVID-19 death toll is nearly three times the reported count, making it one of the hardest-hit countries in the world.
Following detection of a new coronavirus variant, Vietnam banned all nonessential activities in Ho Chi Minh City, and plans to test all 9 million residents.
In the U.K., all people employed by the public healthcare system may be required to get the COVID-19 vaccine.
No Covid-19 deaths recorded in UK for first time since pandemic began
Heathrow to Funnel Travelers from COVID Hotspots Through One Terminal
EU’s digital COVID-19 certificate program for travelers goes live
Israel lifts most COVID-19 restrictions
Japan begins vaccinating Olympic athletes, organizers say
Japan Set Sights on 1 Million COVID Vaccines a Day Ahead of Olympic Games
China’s Sinovac COVID-19 Vaccine With 50% Efficacy Rate Gets WHO Approval
Australia’s softball players are among the first Olympic athletes to arrive in Japan.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Covid shots are free. Some unvaccinated adults don’t believe that.
Fueling box-office rebound, ‘Quiet Place’ opens with $58.5M
Gasoline demand reaches new high as more travelers hit the road
California Restaurant Owner Tacks On $5 Fee For Customers Who Refuse To Remove Masks
More than 2 million people passed through airport security checkpoints on Friday, the highest number of travelers since the start of the pandemic.
Some of the relaxed state regulations on telemedicine, liquor, and medical marijuana — put in place to make COVID restrictions more bearable — might be here to stay.
Moderna filed for full FDA approval of its COVID-19 vaccine, the company announced.
The agency also relaxed its mask guidance for summer camps, saying fully vaccinated kids and counselors can go maskless.
The FDA warned an online vendor to stop marketing bleach products as a treatment for COVID-19.
Little-known illnesses turning up in Covid long-haulers
SARS-CoV-2 variants have higher transmissibility and a longer infectious period
Study: Parler provided echo chamber for vaccine misinformation, conspiracy theories
COVID-positive people have more severe strokes, Geisinger-led study finds
Medical AI models rely on ‘shortcuts’ that could lead to misdiagnosis of COVID-19
New Mexico launching vaccine sweepstakes with $10M in prizes
Some U.S. states have higher vaccination rates inside prisons than outside.
What fueled pandemic shortages? Companies’ drive to limit inventories. [editor’s note: another bullshit article complements of the New York Times]
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2021 ISM and Markit Manufacturing Surveys Continue To Show Strong Growth
April 2021 Construction Spending Improves
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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