Written by Steven Hansen
The ISM Manufacturing survey improved and remains in expansion. The Markit PMI manufacturing index improved and remains in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of the Manufacturing Surveys
Based on these surveys and the district Federal Reserve Surveys, one would expect the Fed’s Industrial Production index growth rate to be better than last month. Overall, surveys do not have a high correlation to the movement of industrial production (manufacturing) since the Great Recession. No question these surveys suggest the economy is no longer in recession.
From Econoday:
| Consensus Range | Consensus | Actual | |
| Markit Manufacturing | 60.3 to 61.5 | 61.5 | 62.1 |
| ISM Manufacturing | 60.3 to 61.5 | 60.9 | 61.2 |
From the Markit PMI Manufacturing Index:
Production growth accelerates amid stronger client demand, but supply chain disruption remains marked
- Output expands at faster rate as growth in new order inflows strengthens
- Supply chain disruption leads to soaring cost pressures
- Backlogs of work rise at quickest pace on record
- May PMI data from IHS Markit indicated a substantial improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector, with the rate of overall growth accelerating to a fresh record high. The upturn was supported by stronger expansions in output and new orders, with the pace of the latter reaching the fastest on record. Nonetheless, constraints on production capacity were exacerbated further during the month, as severe supply-chain disruptions led to a marked accumulation of backlogs of work and one of the fastest rises in input prices since data collection began in May 2007. Although firms were able to partially pass on higher cost burdens, supply shortages and the potential for future strain on capacity pushed output expectations down to their lowest for seven months.
- The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 62.1 in May, up from 60.5 in April and from the earlier release ‘flash’ estimate of 61.5. The increase in business activity signalled among U.S. manufacturers was among the strongest in the 14-year series history. Contributing to the uptick in the headline figure was a significant expansion of production during May. The increase in output was widely attributed to stronger client demand and a further marked rise in new order inflows. The accelerated pace of growth in production was the second-strongest since late-2014. That said, component shortages and supplier delays reportedly continued to limit operating capacity, and stymied the upturn. Although the extent to which lead times for inputs length
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From the Institute of Supply Management report:
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in May, with the overall economy notching a 12th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
“The May Manufacturing PMI® registered 61.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of 60.7 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 12th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 67 percent, increasing 2.7 percentage points from the April reading of 64.3 percent. The Production Index registered 58.5 percent, a decrease of 4 percentage points compared to the April reading of 62.5 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 70.6 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher compared to the April reading of 68.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 50.9 percent; 4.2 percentage points lower than the April reading of 55.1 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 78.8 percent, up 3.8 percentage points from the April figure of 75 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50.8 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the April reading of 46.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 88 percent, down 1.6 percentage points compared to the April reading of 89.6 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point compared to the April reading of 54.9 percent. The Imports Index registered 54 percent, a 1.8-percentage point increase from the April reading of 52.2 percent.”
Fiore continues, “The manufacturing economy continued expansion in May. Business Survey Committee panelists reported that their companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing levels of demand. Record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are continuing to affect all segments of the manufacturing economy. Worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to part shortages, and difficulties in filling open positions continue to be issues that limit manufacturing-growth potential. Optimistic panel sentiment increased, with 36 positive comments for every cautious comment, compared to an 11-to-1 ratio in April. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index growing at a strong level, supported by the New Export Orders Index continuing to expand, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index hitting another all-time low and (3) Backlog of Orders Index continuing at a record-high level. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) indicated slowing expansion, posting a combined 8.2-percentage point decrease to the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index expanded for the sixth straight month, but panelists continue to note significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities. Consumption was clearly limited due to labor issues and supply constraints as demand remains very high. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories, and imports — continued to support input-driven constraints to production expansion, at higher rates compared to April, due to continued trouble in supplier deliveries. Inputs positively contributed to the PMI® calculation, by a combined 8.1 percentage points. Importation of items slightly improved in the period. (The Inventories and Supplier Deliveries indexes directly factor into the PMI®; the Imports Index does not.) The Prices Index expanded for the 12th consecutive month, indicating continued supplier pricing power and scarcity of supply chain goods.
“All of the six biggest manufacturing industries — Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products, in that order — registered moderate to strong growth in May.
“Manufacturing performed well for the 12th straight month, with demand, consumption and inputs registering strong growth compared to April. Panelists companies and their supply chains continue to struggle to respond to strong demand due to the difficulty in hiring and retaining direct labor. Record backlog, customer inventories and raw material lead times are being reported. The manufacturing recovery has transitioned from first addressing demand headwinds, to now overcoming labor obstacles across the entire value chain,” says Fiore.
Sixteen of 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in May, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; Paper Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The only industry reporting contraction in May is Printing & Related Support Activities.
Relatively deep penetration of this index below 50 has normally resulted in a recession.
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Readings above 50 in the ISM manufacturing index signal month-to-month growth for U.S. manufacturing as a whole, while those below 50 indicate monthly contraction. For the economy as a whole, readings above 60 signal national GDP growth of 5 percent, while those below 43 signal GDP contraction.
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It is interesting to note that ISM Manufacturing represents less than 10% of USA employment and approximately 20% of the business economy. Historically, it could be argued that the production portion of ISM Manufacturing leads the Fed’s Industrial Production index – however, the correlation is not strong when looking at trends.
However, holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from the Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the ISM Manufacturing Survey (purple bar).
Caveats on the use of the ISM Manufacturing Index:
This is a survey, a quantification of opinion – not facts and data. However, as pointed out above, certain elements of this survey have good to excellent correlation to the economy. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months and can provide early insight into changing conditions.
Many use ISM manufacturing for guidance in estimating manufacturing employment growth. Econintersect has run correlation coefficients for the ISM manufacturing employment and the BLS manufacturing employment data series above going back to 1988, using quarterly data. The coincident correlations are actually negative, but poor (r = -0.2 to -0.4 for various time periods examined). See here for definitions.
Before 2000 the ISM employment data had a weak positive correlation to the BLS data 4 to 7 quarters later (r values above 0.6). Since 2000 the correlations for ISM manufacturing employment as a leading indicator for the BLS manufacturing employment have been between 0 and 0.3 for r (correlation coefficient). These values define correlations as none to poor.
In other words, the ISM employment index is not useful in understanding manufacturing jobs growth.
The ISM employment index appears useful in predicting turning points which can lead the BLS data up to one year.
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