Written by Steven Hansen
CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) home prices recorded a 13% annual gain, the highest since February 2006.
… Baby boomers are staying in their homes longer, slowing the pace with which existing homes come on the for-sale market. Owner occupants today have been in their homes for a median of 13 years, about 50% longer than the previous generation …
Analyst Opinion of CoreLogic’s HPI
Home prices are continuing to rise being exasperated by low inventory.
According to CoreLogic:
…. revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic stated:
Baby boomers are staying in their homes longer, slowing the pace with which existing homes come on the for-sale market. Owner occupants today have been in their homes for a median of 13 years, about 50% longer than the previous generation
HPI Case-Shiller Trends – Year-over-Year Growth.
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Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic stated:
As older homeowners become more comfortable with listing their homes, they are faced with the reality that if they sell, they may get a smaller home for the same price as what they already have. Rather than decreasing their financial burden and cashing out equity to support their retirement, baby boomers may choose to stay put — which could exacerbate inventory challenges.
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Caveats Relating to Home Price Indices
There is no such thing as an “accurate” home price index. CoreLogic HPI is a repeat sales-type index that should not be skewed by changes in the mix of home sales. For more information, please read: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2014/house-price-indexes.pdf
From CoreLogic:
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—”Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
Source: CoreLogic
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