Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 20.5 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 15.0 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 27,620
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,339
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 86.9 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened and deaths worsened
- Problems with coronavirus death counts
- US Sitting On ‘Raft’ Of Unexamined Virus Intel; Former Official Says ‘Almost No Evidence’ Of Natural Origin
- Study Shows How to Safely Hold an Indoor Mass Gathering
- Why Scientific Studies Are So Often Wrong: The Streetlight Effect
- Results of the COLCORONA study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine
- DHS secretary: ‘We’re taking a very close look at’ vaccine passports
- Drug that blocks multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants in mice
- Britain’s COVID-19 Cases Jump 24% In One Week, Stoke Fears of Variant Spread, Lockdown
- How India Tamed COVID in “Slumdog Millionaire’s” Town
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Results of the COLCORONA study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine – EurekAlert
The Montreal Heart Institute (MHI) announces that the COLCORONA study results are published today in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. The article, which is entitled Colchicine for community-treated patients with COVID-19 (COLCORONA): a phase 3, randomised, double-blinded, adaptive, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial, concludes that, given the lack of oral therapies available to prevent COVID-19 complications among non-hospitalized patients and the observed benefit of colchicine in patients with a PCR-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, this anti-inflammatory drug could be considered as a treatment for those at risk of complications.
“Given the current pandemic, while awaiting collective immunity through vaccination around the world, the need for treatments to prevent COVID-19 complications among patients who contract the disease remains”, said Dr. Jean-Claude Tardif, Director of the MHI Research Centre, Professor at the Faculty of Medicine of the Université de Montréal and Principal Investigator of COLCORONA. “Our study showed that colchicine could be used to reduce the risk of complications for some patients with COVID-19.”
Problems with coronavirus death counts – PJ Media
I have been railing against the context-less reporting of death counts since the beginning of the pandemic. While writing for another outlet, I noted the bizarre instructions issued by the National Center for Health Statistics after CNN reporter Jim Acosta called any questioning of the counts a conspiracy theory. If Acosta is attacking an idea, there is almost certainly some truth to it. As testing protocols blossomed to the point where every inpatient received one, and the number of asymptomatic individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 became clear, there was even more reason to question the counts.
Then in December, two Minnesota lawmakers said that deaths in their state could have been inflated by as much as 40%. They reviewed thousands of death certificates, and concluded that something was off:
State Rep. Mary Franson and state Sen. Scott Jensen released a video last week revealing that after reviewing thousands of death certificates in the state, 40% did not have COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death.
“I have other examples where COVID isn’t the underlying cause of death, where we have a fall. Another example is we have a freshwater drowning. We have dementia. We have a stroke and multiorgan failure,” Franson said in the video.
This finding followed a study in New Jersey hospitals that found that almost 90% of patients who had COVID-19 listed as a cause of death had a Do Not Resuscitate Order in place before their hospitalization. From the study:
The significance of DNR status as an independent risk factor for mortality has not been documented previously in COVID19 patients. The present study analyzed data of 1270 patients with COVID-19, who were admitted to our institutions during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Jersey. DNR patients had higher hazard ratios for risk of death and lower survival outcomes compared to non-DNR patients. The association between DNR status and poor clinical outcomes remained independently significant after adjustment for important clinical factors, including age, gender, COVID-19 symptoms at the time of admission and comorbidities.
So, if your doctor felt your health was poor enough to determine that resuscitating you or using lifesaving treatment would not maintain any quality of life, no matter your age, primary diagnosis, or related symptoms, you were more likely to die with COVID-19 on your chart.
Information like this was never shared with the public by the vaunted experts preferred by the legacy media. That may have led to the wildly inaccurate assessments of personal risk for severe disease from COVID-19 among the public.
US Sitting On ‘Raft’ Of Unexamined Virus Intel; Former Official Says ‘Almost No Evidence’ Of Natural Origin – ZeroHedge
Hours after President Biden promised to release the ‘full report’ from US Intelligence community’s 90-day examination of where COVID-19 originated – unless there’s something he’s unaware of……the New York Times reports, there’s things he’s unaware of.
Namely, ‘a raft of still-unexamined evidence that required additional computer analysis that might shed light on the mystery,” according to anonymous senior administration officials.
In other words, the US government has been sitting on a large collection of intelligence in perhaps the most important investigation into an economy-wrecking global pandemic, as China destroyed evidence and has refused to cooperate with international probes. According to the report, Biden’s call for the new investigation was in response to the ‘new’ evidence.
While officials declined to describe the new evidence, they are hoping to apply ‘an extraordinary amount of computer power’ to analyze what the Times speculates may be ‘databases of Chinese communications, the movement of lab workers and the pattern of the outbreak of the disease around the city of Wuhan.”
Biden’s call was also meant to spur American allies and intelligence agencies to scour their own evidence, such as “intercepts, witnesses or biological evidence — as well as hunt for new intelligence,” to assess whether the Chinese government covered up what happened.
Astute readers will note that the NYT substitutes its own facts, framing any lab release as of course “accidental,” and suggesting that Biden only dismissed the lab origin theory “until the Chinese government this week rejected allowing further investigation by the World Health Organization.”
In reality, plenty of evidence existed which the entire leftist establishment and their media surrogates flatly branded a ‘debunked conspiracy theory’ after then-President Trump promoted it, while the World Health Organization (WHO) and US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) parroted CCP propaganda that the virus could have only emerged via ‘natural origin’ (as opposed to the Chinese lab manipulating bat coronaviruses in the same city that the pandemic started).
[editor’s note: also read Intelligence officials told the White House there was unexamined evidence about the virus’s origins.]
Scientists claim to have solved Covid vaccine blood-clot puzzle – Financial Times
Scientists in Germany claim to have cracked the cause of the rare blood clots linked to the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccines and believe the jabs could be tweaked to stop the reaction happening altogether. Rolf Marschalek, a professor at Goethe university in Frankfurt who has been leading studies into the rare condition since March, said his research showed the problem sat with the adenovirus vectors that both vaccines use to deliver the genetic instructions for the spike protein of the Sars-Cov-2 virus into the body. The delivery mechanism means the vaccines send the DNA gene sequences of the spike protein into the cell nucleus rather than the cytosol fluid found inside the cell where the virus normally produces proteins, Marschalek and other scientists said in a preprint paper released on Wednesday. Once inside the cell nucleus, certain parts of the spike protein DNA are spliced, or split apart, creating mutant versions, which are unable to bind to the cell membrane where important immunisation takes place. The floating mutant proteins are instead secreted by cells into the body, triggering blood clots in roughly one in 100,000 people, according to Marschalek’s theory. In contrast, mRNA-based vaccines, such as the jabs developed by BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna, deliver the spike’s genetic material to the cell fluid and it never enters the nucleus. “When these . . . virus genes are in the nucleus they can create some problems,” Marschalek told the Financial Times.
…But Marschalek believes there is a straight forward “way out” if the vaccine developers can modify the gene sequence that codes for the spike protein to prevent it splitting apart. J&J had already contacted Marschalek’s lab to ask for guidance and was looking at ways to adapt its vaccine to prevent splicing, he said. The instructions for the spike protein in the J&J shot were already less prone to “splicing” than the instructions for the spike protein in the AstraZeneca jab, making the reaction less common, according to Marschalek. In the US, eight of the 7.4m recipients of the J&J shot have reported the rare reaction.
Study Shows How to Safely Hold an Indoor Mass Gathering – MedPage
There was no COVID-19 transmission following an indoor music event with appropriate public health precautions, Spanish researchers found in a randomized trial.
When the use of masks, adequate air circulation, and rapid testing were all employed, 0% of concert attendees tested positive for COVID-19 at 8 days after the concert compared to less than 1% of people who did not attend (control group), reported Josep Llibre, MD, PhD, and colleagues from University Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol in Badalona, Spain.
Interestingly, 3% of participants in the control group tested positive and 3% of the concert attendee group tested positive before the concert using a transcription-mediated amplification (TMA) test, but tested negative via rapid antigen testing, the authors wrote in the Lancet Infectious Diseases.
“These results confirm that with the implementation of these measures, these indoor events are not super spreading events, as they had been previously classified. In addition, the results do not support any increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the event,” Llibre told MedPage Today.
While this study made news when the authors shared their findings via press release, this was the first time the results were written up in a peer-reviewed journal.
This represents the first randomized trial to evaluate the safety of indoor mass-gatherings for a live music concert during the COVID-19 era using testing to detect viral transmission, the authors said. The findings offer hope for the possibility of mass-cultural and music events to safely return to societies by using preventative measures.
How India Tamed COVID in “Slumdog Millionaire’s” Town – Economic Times
After reporting up to 99 COVID-19 cases daily in April, Mumbai’s slum colony of Dharavi has seen a gradual drop in single-day infections – below 5 – in the last couple of days with the tally of patients under treatment dropping to 50, marking a turnaround in the second wave. The ‘Dharavi model’ of COVID-19 management and the vaccination drive have helped in successfully containing the second wave in the area, officials said.
A steady drop in coronavirus cases in Dharavi, a sprawling and congested shanty town which was once a COVID-19 hotspot, has brought huge relief to the civic authorities in Mumbai.
BMC (Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) officials said the slum cluster, spread across 2.5 square km and located on the border of the island city, reported three and four cases on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, while Mumbai is still witnessing daily coronavirus cases in four digits.
They said Dharavi’s active cases have come down to just 50 (6,398 of the total 6,802 COVID-19 patients have recovered, while 354 have died).
This was in sharp contrast to the adjoining Dadar and Mahim areas, which have 204 and 254 active cases, respectively.
[editor’s note: this is an interesting article which deserves a full read]
Why Scientific Studies Are So Often Wrong: The Streetlight Effect – Discover
Researchers tend to look for answers where the looking is good, rather than where the answers are likely to be hiding.
A bolt of excitement ran through the field of cardiology in the early 1980s when anti-arrhythmia drugs burst onto the scene. Researchers knew that heart-attack victims with steady heartbeats had the best odds of survival, so a medication that could tamp down irregularities seemed like a no-brainer. The drugs became the standard of care for heart-attack patients and were soon smoothing out heartbeats in intensive care wards across the United States.
But in the early 1990s, cardiologists realized that the drugs were also doing something else: killing about 56,000 heart-attack patients a year. Yes, hearts were beating more regularly on the drugs than off, but their owners were, on average, one-third as likely to pull through. Cardiologists had been so focused on immediately measurable arrhythmias that they had overlooked the longer-term but far more important variable of death.
The fundamental error here is summed up in an old joke scientists love to tell. Late at night, a police officer finds a drunk man crawling around on his hands and knees under a streetlight. The drunk man tells the officer he’s looking for his wallet. When the officer asks if he’s sure this is where he dropped the wallet, the man replies that he thinks he more likely dropped it across the street. Then why are you looking over here? the befuddled officer asks. Because the light’s better here, explains the drunk man.
That fellow is in good company. Many, and possibly most, scientists spend their careers looking for answers where the light is better rather than where the truth is more likely to lie. They don’t always have much choice. It is often extremely difficult or even impossible to cleanly measure what is really important, so scientists instead cleanly measure what they can, hoping it turns out to be relevant. After all, we expect scientists to quantify their observations precisely. As Lord Kelvin put it more than a century ago, “When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it.”
[editor’s note: this is a great think piece post which deserves a full read. My position is that most studies on COVID are flawed in varying degrees, and new studies tend to leap-frog off the flawed existing studies. The truth is always hard to identify]
Researchers discover cross-reactive coronavirus antibody triggered during COVID-19 infection – News-Medical
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, most people in the United States already had been sick with a coronavirus, albeit a far less dangerous one. That’s because at least four coronaviruses in the same general family as SARS-CoV-2 cause the benign yet annoying illness known as the common cold.
In a new study that appears in Nature Communications, scientists from Scripps Research investigated how the immune system’s previous exposure to cold-causing coronaviruses impact immune response to COVID-19. In doing so, they discovered one cross-reactive coronavirus antibody that’s triggered during a COVID-19 infection.
The findings will help in the pursuit of a vaccine or antibody treatment that works against most or all coronaviruses, says senior author Raiees Andrabi, PhD, an investigator in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology.
“By examining blood samples collected before the pandemic and comparing those with samples from people who had been sick with COVID-19, we were able to pinpoint antibody types that cross reacted with benign coronaviruses as well as SARS-CoV-2,” says Andrabi, who works closely with the laboratory of professor Dennis Burton, PhD.
In later tests, the antibody also neutralized SARS-CoV-1, the coronavirus that causes SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Drug that blocks multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants in mice – EurekAlert
The drug diABZI — which activates the body’s innate immune response — was highly effective in preventing severe COVID-19 in mice that were infected with SARS-CoV-2, according to scientists in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. The findings, published this month in Science Immunology, suggest that diABZI could also treat other respiratory coronaviruses.
“Few drugs have been identified as game-changers in blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection. This paper is the first to show that activating an early immune response therapeutically with a single dose is a promising strategy for controlling the virus, including the South African variant B.1.351, which has led to worldwide concern,” said senior author Sara Cherry, PhD, a professor of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine and scientific director of the High-Throughput Screening (HTS) Core at Penn Medicine. “The development of effective antivirals is urgently needed for controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease, especially as dangerous variants of the virus continue to emerge.”
The SARS-CoV-2 virus initially targets epithelial cells in the respiratory tract. As the first line of defense against infection, the respiratory tract’s innate immune system recognizes viral pathogens by detecting their molecular patterns. Cherry and her research team first sought to better understand this effect by observing human lung cell lines under the microscope that had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. They found that the virus is able to hide, delaying the immune system’s early recognition and response. The researchers predicted that they may be able to identify drugs — or small molecules with drug-like properties — that could set off this immune response in the respiratory cells earlier and prevent severe SARS-CoV-2 infection.
DHS secretary: ‘We’re taking a very close look at’ vaccine passports – The Hill
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Friday that the U.S. is taking “a very close look” at vaccine passports for international travel.
Speaking on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” Mayorkas was asked about the possibility of vaccine passports for traveling into or out of the U.S.
“We’re taking a very close look at that,” Mayorkas said.
“You know, one of our principles that has guided us throughout this pandemic is the value of diversity, equity and inclusion and making sure that any passport that we provide for vaccinations is accessible to all and that no one is disenfranchised,” he said.
Vaccine passports have become a flashpoint for debate amid the nation’s vaccination efforts. Several GOP-led states have banned local governments and businesses from requiring such proof, arguing that they infringe on the personal right to choose to get vaccinated.
The White House has also said there would be no federal mandate for proof of COVID-19 vaccinations.
Britain’s COVID-19 Cases Jump 24% In One Week, Stoke Fears of Variant Spread, Lockdown – Newsweek
The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Britain saw a 24% increase in just one week, with the week’s total reaching 20,765, reported the Associated Press.
Scientists say the U.K. is now going to have a third wave of the pandemic.
There is a growing speculation that the Indian variant of the virus may cause the British government to delay easing up on lockdown restrictions. The variant is believed to be responsible for up to 75% of the new cases in the U.K. and regarded as more transmissible than the previous strain of the virus.
The number of new coronavirus infections in the U.K. hit a near two-month high Friday as British regulators authorized the use of the single-dose vaccine from Johnson & Johnson.
The latest authorization, which takes the number of vaccines in the U.K.’s armory to four, comes amid growing speculation that the new variant of the virus first identified in India may prompt the British government to delay its next planned easing of lockdown restrictions in England.
The number of cases remains well below the daily high of nearly 70,000 recorded in mid-January, during the peak of the second wave, but the upward trend has raised questions about the U.K. government’s plan to lift all remaining social restrictions on June 21. The government, which has lifted restrictions in stages and allowed pubs and restaurants to resume indoor service last week, has said it will make a decision on the next planned easing on June 14.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Mexico just granted emergency use authorization to Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine.
Researchers identify a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant (with the V1230L mutation) in West Bengal, India
India is in talks to obtain 50 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine.
Japanese prime minister extends COVID-19 state of emergency through June 20
North Korea Situation ‘Dire,’ People Attempt to Sell Possessions for Food
U.S., Britain Again Ask China to Commit to COVID-19 Origin Study
Malaysia Imposes 2-Week Lockdown as Country Logs Over 8K New COVID Cases
850 COVID-19 Cases in Malaysia Linked To Eid Festival
EU approves Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for adolescents ages 12 to 15
China counters Biden’s Covid origins lab probe … by calling for a US lab probe
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced the state is ready to dole out $116.5 million worth of incentives, including cash prizes, to get Californians vaccinated ahead of the June 15 reopening.
In a guideline update, the NIH now recommends using either baricitinib (Olumiant) or tocilizumab (Actemra) with dexamethasone alone or plus remdesivir (Veklury) for hospitalized patients on high-flow oxygen or noninvasive ventilation who have evidence of clinical progression or elevated inflammation markers.
A concert in Florida is charging $18 for those with a vaccine card, but $999.99 for unvaccinated attendees.
Pennsylvania (not including Philly) is slated to lift its mask mandate when 70% of the adult population is vaccinated or on June 28 — whichever comes first.
Some researchers are warning against probing into the “lab-leak” theory as it could only heighten tensions between the U.S. and China and fuel online bullying.
Study supports single-dose COVID-19 vaccine strategy for previously infected individuals
A new study by researchers from Taiwan and the US suggests that the removal of unnecessary glycans from spike glycoprotein of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposes highly conserved sequences and opens the door for the development of broadly protective vaccines against the virus and its variants. The study is currently available on the bioRxiv* preprint server.
FDA, J&J to announce vaccine contamination problems at Baltimore plant are resolved: report
18 U.S. States Owe Federal Gov. Over $52 Billion for Unemployment Loans
A new poll suggests that the United States could be on track to vaccinate at least 70 percent of the adult population against Covid-19 by this summer.
1 in 10 Americans have been infected with Covid-19, data shows
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
21 May 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Again Marginally Declines
Final May 2021 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Little Changed
May 2021 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer At Highest Level Since November 1973
April 2021 Real Income And Expenditures – Inflation Now Impacting
Rail Week Ending 22 May 2021 – Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Don’t Expect The World Economy To Resume Its Prior Growth Pattern After COVID-19
Breakthrough Covid-19 Cases Remain Rare In The U.S.
First Quarter GDP Unchanged, But What Happened In April?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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