Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was little changed and remains well into expansion.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline was immediate. In theory, this index is now indicating that in the second or third quarter of 2021 the economy should be in expansion year-over-year
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 159.5, a record high. The growth rate edged down to 23.5%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s recent performance, please see the chart below.
The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)
Review ECRI’s current real-time track record.
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U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth was unchanged and continued in expansion.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth improved but remains in contraction.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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