Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 23.3 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 4.6 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 23,604
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 964
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 86.5 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases were little changed and deaths worsened
- FDA Allows New Antibody in Less-Severe COVID-19
- Amid emerging new information, Facebook lifts ban on posts that claim COVID-19 was man-made
- Why CDC Changed Its ‘Breakthrough Case’ Definition
- Disproportionate number of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections are caused by variants of concern
- COVID-19 increases rate of heart attacks in people at genetic risk for heart disease
- Coronavirus Variants Seen More Often in Young US Children
- CDC Gives Green Light For First Royal Caribbean Test Cruise From Miami
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Why CDC Changed Its ‘Breakthrough Case’ Definition – MedPage
The CDC’s recent shift in monitoring breakthrough COVID-19 infections after vaccination hasn’t sat well with everyone, as some scientists are concerned it could miss the full picture of what is happening with these breakthrough cases.
As of May 1, the agency went from monitoring all breakthrough infections after COVID-19 vaccination to focusing on only hospitalized or fatal cases.
The rationale for this change is to focus on cases that are of “most importance to public health,” and it is “not a resource limitation question,” said Tom Clark, MD, MPH, deputy director of the division of viral diseases at the CDC and lead of the agency’s vaccine evaluation team.
“We’re focusing on breakthrough cases that have contact with the health system,” he told MedPage Today.
Recent CDC data on breakthrough cases indicate that “the vaccines are working well,” Clark added.
Data from the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report found out of 101 million fully vaccinated individuals, around 10,000 reported a breakthrough infection. Of specimens available for sequencing, 64% were variants of concern.
“The variants we identified in breakthrough cases looked very similar to the ones we identified in our strain surveillance nationwide. There were no red flags,” Clark said. “What we’re learning from vaccine effectiveness studies is that the vaccines are protecting well against strains that are circulating in the U.S.”
Even though he characterized this data as “really reassuring,” some scientists have been concerned that focusing only on more severe breakthrough cases could miss important information.
Understanding as much as we can about breakthrough cases is “essential,” according to Michael Kinch, PhD, of Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri. Kinch has done research on drug discovery for cancer and infectious diseases.
“I’m not supportive of this change. I’d rather err on the side of having too much information,” he told MedPage Today. “My worry is that missing variants could potentially evade the effectiveness of vaccines. When we find a variant like that, we want to try to snuff it out as quickly as we can.”
Because the same viral strain may cause only mild illness in one person but deadly illness in another, not tracking mild breakthrough cases could risk missing out on the “full picture,” of SARS-CoV-2 infection, he added.
Suddenly, talk of the Wuhan lab-leak theory seems to be everywhere. – New York Times
The origin of the virus remains unclear. Many scientists have long believed that the most likely explanation is that it jumped from an animal to a person, possibly at a food market in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. Animal-to human transmission — known as zoonotic spillover — is a common origin story for viruses, including Ebola and some bird flus.
But some scientists have pointed to another possibility: that it escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As in other laboratories, researchers there sometimes modify viruses, to understand and treat them.
“It is most likely that this is a virus that arose naturally, but we cannot exclude the possibility of some kind of a lab accident,” Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, told senators yesterday.
The subject is getting more attention because some scientists who were once skeptical of the laboratory theory have expressed new openness to it.
Two weeks ago, 18 scientists wrote a letter to the journal Science calling for a new investigation and describing both the animal-to-human theory and the lab-leak theory as “viable.” And three scientists who last year dismissed the lab-leak explanation as a conspiracy theory have told The Wall Street Journal that they now consider it plausible.
Among the reasons: Chinese officials have refused to allow an independent investigation into the lab and have failed to explain some inconsistencies in the animal-to-human hypothesis. Most of the first confirmed cases had no evident link to the food market.
In some ways, not much has not changed. From the beginning, the virus’s origin has been unclear. All along, some scientists, politicians and journalists have argued that the lab-leak theory deserves consideration.
Almost 15 months ago, two Chinese researchers wrote a paper concluding that the virus “probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.” Alina Chan, a molecular biologist affiliated with Harvard and M.I.T., made similar arguments. David Ignatius and Josh Rogin, both Washington Post columnists, wrote about the possibility more than a year ago. Joe Biden, then a presidential candidate, didn’t mention the lab-leak theory in early 2020 but he did argue that the U.S. should “not be taking China’s word” for how the outbreak started.
But these voices were in the minority. The World Health Organization initially dismissed the lab-leak theory as implausible.
The virus’s origin does not affect many parts of the fight against Covid. The best mitigation strategies — travel restrictions, testing, contact tracing, social distancing, ventilation and masking — are still the best mitigation strategies.
But there are at least three concrete ways, in addition to the inherent value of truth, in which the origin matters.
First, if the virus really did come from a lab, an immediate airing of the details might have led to even faster vaccine development and more effective treatments. Second, a leak that caused millions of deaths could lead to widespread change in laboratories’ safety precautions. Third, confirmation of a leak would affect the world’s view of China — and would put pressure on China to bear the burden of vaccinating the world as quickly as possible.
[editor’s note: also read China: U.S. Turning ‘Blind Eye’ to WHO’s ‘Official Conclusion’ on Lab Leak and American Journalists Shielded China and Erased the Lab Leak Theory and What Fauci Said About Wuhan Lab Theory in 2020, and What He’s Saying Now and Senate Approves Amendment Blocking Funds to Wuhan Institute of Virology and US intelligence community still “does not know” how Covid-19 originated, but has 2 working theories]
The Senate unanimously passed a bill to declassify intel on the origins of COVID-19, including the Wuhan lab – Business Insider
- The Senate passed a bill to declassify what the US government knows about the origins of COVID-19.
- Earlier Wednesday, President Joe Biden gave US intel 90 days to produce a report on the matter.
- Calls to investigate the origins of the coronavirus, especially the lab-leak theory, have grown.
Amid emerging new information, Facebook lifts ban on posts that claim COVID-19 was man-made – USA Today
Facebook will no longer take down posts claiming that COVID-19 was man-made or manufactured, a move that could fuel more speculation and conspiracy theories on how the deadly virus started.
The social network’s change in policy comes as the White House has called for the U.S. intelligence community to conduct a deeper probe into the origins of COVID-19 after reports that three scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China were hospitalized in late 2019 with symptoms that are consistent with COVID.
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden said in a statement he asked the intel agencies to report within 90 days on the likely origins of COVID-19, with the hopes “will collect and analyze information that could bring us closer to a definitive conclusion.” The move is a sharp departure from the White House’s stance that the World Health Organization (WHO) should take the lead to reveal the virus came from.
CDC Gives Green Light For First Royal Caribbean Test Cruise From Miami – Cruise Critic
The CDC has given the green light for Royal Caribbean to carry out the first test cruise ahead of the resumption of sailing from the U.S.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gave the line approval to conduct a simulated cruise onboard Freedom of the Seas from June 20 to 22, sailing from Miami, as part of the CDC’s Conditional Sail Order (CSO).
It is the clearest signal yet that cruises will resume from the U.S. by early July.
Royal Caribbean’s CEO Michael Bayley broke the news on his Facebook page:
“After 15 months and so much work by so many during very challenging times. To all our colleagues, loyal guests and supporters all over the world I am proud and pleased to share some bright and wonderful news ! Boom ! Onwards and upwards team !”
Royal Caribbean released the following statement:
“After 15 months of hard work and collaboration, today’s approval of our simulated cruises is the latest promising step in our path to return to sailing in the U.S. We look forward to welcoming our crew, loyal guests and supporters from around the world this summer.”
This summer we are likely to see both fully vaccinated cruises and those that are sailing with a mixture of vaxxed and unvaxxed. Test cruises are for lines that will not be carrying vaccinated passengers; those lines going down the fully vaccinated route are not obliged to run test cruises. Test cruises will alllow family-friendly lines such as Royal Caribbean to bypass the ruling that requires COVID-19 vaccinations for 98 percent of passengers and 95 percent of crew.
Earlier this month, the CDC released further guidance on how the cruise industry could conduct the test cruises. The agency said it planned for its guidance to help cruising resume by mid-July. Cruise ships that pass the test cruise phase will be permitted to sail with passengers, the CDC said.
“The CDC is committed to working with the cruise industry and seaport partners to resume cruising following the phased approach outlined in the CSO,” the body said in its latest statement.
“Over the past month, senior leadership from CDC have met multiple times a week with cruise line senior executives to discuss the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order (CSO).
“During these meetings, participants asked questions and discussed the fastest path back to sailing without compromising safety. CDC and the cruise industry agree that the industry has what it needs to move forward and no additional roadblocks exist for resuming sailing by mid-summer.”
Under the CSO, the CDC outlines five conditions for the test cruise, including sailing the ship “at least 10 percent of the maximum number of passengers permitted onboard”.
The line is also obliged to advise test passengers of the CDC’s Travel Health Notice for COVID-19 and Cruise Ship Travel ahead of the voyage.
What Is the Single-Pill COVID-19 Cure? – GoodRx
- Pfizer is studying a new treatment for people with mild to moderate COVID-19.
- This treatment will come in a pill and can be taken at home.
- Studies are underway, and the treatment may be available later this year.
FDA Allows New Antibody in Less-Severe COVID-19 – MedPage
Sotrovimab received emergency use authorization (EUA) for patients 12 years and older with mild to moderate COVID-19, who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and are at risk of progression to hospitalization or death. It is not authorized for hospitalized patients, especially patients requiring supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation, as it may worsen clinical outcomes in this population, the FDA said.
“It is important to expand the arsenal of monoclonal antibody therapies that are expected to retain activity against the circulating variants of COVID-19 in the United States,” Patrizia Cavazzoni, MD, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in a statement.
Sotrovimab is administered as a 500 mg intravenous infusion. The agency granted the EUA based on interim results of a phase I-III trial, where 583 non-hospitalized patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 were randomized to either sotrovimab or placebo. Primary outcome was “progression of COVID-19,” defined as hospitalization for more than 24 hours for any reason or death from any cause. Hospitalization or death occurred in 7% of the placebo group compared to 1% of the intervention group, for an 85% reduction in severe outcomes.
Disproportionate number of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections are caused by variants of concern – News-Medical
A study conducted by researchers in the United States has shown that among twenty patients with breakthrough infection following vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the agent that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) – all of the infections were caused by variants of concerns.
The team says that compared with SARS-CoV-2 cases circulating in the general population of Washington State over the same time period, variants of concern were significantly enriched in breakthrough infections detected at University of Washington medical hospitals.
When the researchers compared individual mutations in the viral spike protein between breakthrough and control cases, they identified a single mutation – W258L – that was 15.22-fold enriched in the breakthrough cases.
The spike protein is the main structure SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect host cells and is the primary target of neutralizing antibodies following vaccination or infection.
However, SARS-CoV-2 is now defined by a range of variants containing spike mutations that have been shown to increase transmissibility and to resist neutralization by infection- or vaccine-elicited antibodies.
… All 20 (100%) vaccine breakthrough cases were classified as VOCs, eight (40%) of which were the UK B.1.1.7 variant, one (5%) was the South African B.1.351 variant, two (10%) were the B.1.427 (California) lineage, 8 (40%) were the B.1.429 (California) variant, and one (5%) was the P.1 (Brazil) lineage.
During the same time interval, 68% of the Washington cases were classified as VOCs, 31% of which were B.1.1.7, 1% were B.1.351, 3% were B.1.427, 27% were B.1.429, and 7% were P.1.
“Overall, variants of concern were proportionally over-represented in breakthrough cases,” says Roychoudhury and the team.
Overall, the frequency of VOCs in the breakthrough cases increased 1.47-fold compared with the control group, with 3.38-fold, 1.51-fold, and 1.29-fold increases observed for B.1.427, B.1.429, and B.1.1.7, respectively.
COVID-19 increases rate of heart attacks in people at genetic risk for heart disease – EurekAlert
Individuals with genetic high cholesterol, heart disease or both, who were infected with COVID-19 had more heart attacks according to new research by the FH Foundation. While previous studies have speculated about poorer outcomes if a person with genetic high cholesterol – called familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) contracts COVID-19, this study from the FH Foundation’s national healthcare database is the first to demonstrate higher heart attack rates in the real world. Published online in the American Journal of Preventive Cardiology, the study also importantly confirms that COVID-19 increases heart attack rates in individuals with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).
The FH Foundation performed an analysis of 55,412,462 individuals, separating groups into six matched cohorts including diagnosed FH, probable FH, and ASCVD, with and without COVID-19 infection (as identified by the U07.1 ICD-10 code). The researchers found that rates of heart attacks were highest in those with a COVID-19 diagnosis and the presence of diagnosed FH or probable FH with known ASCVD.
“These results are significant because these data underscore the importance of understanding if individuals have underlying cardiovascular disease or genetic high cholesterol when treating for COVID-19 infection or considering vaccination,” said Kelly Myers, study author and chief technology officer of the FH Foundation.
Coronavirus Variants Seen More Often in Young US Children – Medscape
Young children appear to be significant carriers of more contagious variants of the new coronavirus, such as the ones identified in the UK and in California, according to a new U.S. study.
From March 2020 to April 2021, researchers at nine children’s hospitals tested a total of 2,119 COVID-19 patients age 18 or younger for so-called variants of concern, along with key mutations that help the variants become more contagious or hide from the patient’s immune system.
“In total, we identified 560 of these important mutations, and 75% (420/560) … were in children less than 12 years of age, the population that is currently not eligible for COVID-19 vaccines,” said Jennifer Dien Bard of Children’s Hospital Los Angeles, lead author of a report posted on medRxiv ahead of peer review.
The results provide “clear evidence” of the emergence of variants of concern in pediatric patients across diverse geographies and socioeconomic populations in the United States, the researchers said in their paper.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Israel’s vaccine rollout for younger teenagers will start with a one-dose regimen of mRNA vaccine as a safety compromise.
Why has COVAX failed to vaccinate the world’s poorest?
In Baja California, Mexican factory workers employed by U.S. companies will be vaccinated as part of a unique cross-border pilot program.
Belgium suspended Johnson & Johnson vaccination for people under age 41 after a death related to thrombosis and reduced blood platelets.
Cyprus, where British model Stephanie Dubois died days after getting the AstraZeneca vaccine, is setting age restrictions for the shot.
WHO: Africa in ‘urgent need’ of 20 million second vaccine doses within six weeks
Study Determines China’s Sinopharm COVID Vaccine Up to 78% Effective
A lockdown in Victoria State, Australia, follows a variant-fueled outbreak.
Up to 75% of new Covid-19 cases in UK are Indian variant
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
CVS Health announced Thursday that it will allow people who have gotten or will get vaccinated at its stores to enter a sweepstakes giveaway for a variety of prizes, including a trip to the Super Bowl, $5,000 to fund a family reunion, cruises or cash.
Daily Covid deaths in the U.S. have fallen roughly 40 percent since the start of April.
Mild coronavirus infection leaves behind lasting antibody protection, research suggests
In Ohio, about 2.75 million people entered and two people won the state’s first Vax-a-Million drawing Wednesday. One won the $1 million prize and the other a full-ride college scholarship.
New York is trying something similar. Vaccinated kids aged 12 to 17 will have a chance to win a full ride to public universities and colleges in the state. Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the state will raffle off 50 scholarships, which would cover four years of tuition, room and board, books and supplies.
American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that unvaccinated children and teens continue to mask up, even at home if they live at home with at-risk individuals.
Vaccines Appear Safe for ‘Long COVID’ Survivors
Dentures May Harbor More Bacteria During COVID-19
Two new studies indicate COVID-19 vaccine immunity lasts at least a year
Majority of dogs, cats adopted in pandemic remain with owners: survey
Virus alert apps powered by Apple and Google have had limited success.
Memorial Day gas prices are highest in seven years and could stay high
U.S. Covid cases down 53% in May, country averaging 1.7 million vaccine shots per day
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2021 Headline Pending Home Sales Slow
May 2021 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Expands At A Strong Pace
22 May 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Improvement Continues
Headline Durable Goods New Orders Slowed In April 2021
Second Estimate 1Q2021 GDP Growth Unchanged At 6.4%
22 May 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improvement Continues
Does COVID Really Affect Your Heart?
Can People Vaccinated Against COVID-19 Still Spread The Coronavirus?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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