Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 25.0 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 14.8 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 22,581
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 695
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 85.8 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Biden Shut Down State Department investigation into Wuhan Lab Investigation Probing COVID-19 Origins
- Finding SARS-CoV-2 Origin a ‘Critical Priority’ for White House
- Most Voters Like Dr. Fauci, But Believe Politics Influenced His COVID-19 Decisions
- Why is Chinese state media targeting Fauci amid Wuhan lab controversy?
- The FDA said it may decline to process new emergency use authorization requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the rest of the pandemic if discussions with the company have not already started.
- Methotrexate Impairs COVID Vax Response
- Intensity and duration of SARS-CoV-2 immunity may depend on ABO blood group
- Vaccine inequality in India sends many falling through gaps
- There’s a downside to returning to pre-COVID-19 hygiene habits — colds and sore throats are back, doctors say
- Royal Caribbean is first cruise line to receive CDC approval for a test sailing in US waters
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Methotrexate Impairs COVID Vax Response – MedPage
One-third of patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases being treated with methotrexate showed attenuated responses to the COVID-19 vaccine, researchers reported.
In two independent cohorts, robust antibody responses were observed in 98.1% of healthy controls and in 91.9% of patients with immune-mediated diseases not on methotrexate, but in only 62.2% of patients receiving methotrexate (P<0.001), reported Jose U. Scher, MD, of NYU Langone Health in New York City, and colleagues.
“Our results suggest that the optimal protection of patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases against COVID-19 will require further studies to determine whether additional doses of vaccine, dose modification of methotrexate, or even temporary discontinuation of this drug can boost immune response as has been demonstrated for other viral vaccines in this patient population,” they wrote in Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases.
Patients with immune-mediated diseases have an increased susceptibility to viral infections both because of the underlying disease and the medications used to control it. Previous experience, particularly with the influenza vaccine, has suggested that vaccine responses were less robust among patients receiving certain conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs).
The latest chapter on the C.D.C.’s description of outdoor Covid risks. – New York Times
.. When Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the C.D.C. director, appeared before a Senate committee this month and defended the agency’s description of how often Covid-19 is transmitted outdoors, she cited a single academic study.
She was responding to a question from Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who had asked why some C.D.C. guidelines seemed inconsistent with the available data. Collins quoted from that day’s edition of this newsletter and argued that the C.D.C. was exaggerating the risk of outdoor activities by claiming that “less than 10 percent” of Covid transmission occurred outside.
Anything close to 10 percent would mean that outdoor infections were a huge problem. Yet the true share appears to be closer to 0.1 percent.
Walensky replied that the 10 percent number came from a study published in The Journal of Infectious Diseases. The study was “a meta-analysis,” she explained, which means it synthesized data from other studies. “The topline result of all studies that were included in the systematic review said less than 10 percent of cases were transmitted outdoors,” she said.
… Later that day, one of the study’s authors posted several messages on Twitter, and the story got more complicated.
The tweets came from Dr. Nooshin Razani, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco. In them, she emphasized that the study’s results suggested that the share of Covid occurring outdoors was “much lower than 10 percent.”
… For unvaccinated adults indoors or in close conversation outdoors, the costs of a mask are vastly lower than the risks from Covid. But the trade-offs are different in most outdoor settings, and they are different for children. The Covid risks for children are similar to those from a normal flu (as these charts show).
There does not appear to be much scientific reason that campers and counselors, or most other people, should wear a mask outdoors all summer. Telling them to do so is an example of extreme caution — like staying out of the ocean to avoid sharks — that seems to have a greater cost than benefit.
The C.D.C., as I’ve written before, is an agency full of dedicated people trying their best to keep Americans healthy. Walensky, a widely admired infectious-diseases expert, is one of them. Yet more than once during this pandemic, C.D.C. officials have acted as if extreme caution has no downsides.
Vaccine inequality in India sends many falling through gaps – AP
The pandemic’s disparities already were stark in India, where access to health care is as stratified and unequal as many other parts of society. Now wealth and technology is further widening those chasms, and millions are falling through the gaps.
That worries health experts, who say vaccine inequality could hamper India’s already difficult fight against a virus that has been killing more than 4,000 people a day in recent weeks.
“Inequitable vaccination risks prolonging the pandemic in India,” said Krishna Udayakumar, founding director of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center at Duke University in North Carolina. “Reducing barriers for the most vulnerable populations should be a priority.”
India’s vaccination campaign began in January with a goal of inoculating 300 million of its nearly 1.4 billion people by August. So far, however, it has fully vaccinated a little over 42 million people, or barely 3% of its population.
The government didn’t reserve enough shots for the campaign and it was slow to scale up vaccine production. Then, with the country recording hundreds of thousands of new infections daily, the government on May 1 opened up vaccination to all adults.
That made an already bad shortage even worse.
Amid those challenges, the federal government also changed its policy on who can get vaccines and who must pay for them. It allotted itself half of the shots in the country and said it would give free shots to front-line workers and those 45 and older.
Individual states and private hospitals could then negotiate deals with the country’s vaccine-makers for the other half of the shots, the government said. That effectively put the burden for inoculating everyone under 45 on states and the private sector, who often ask members of the public to pay as much as $20 for a shot.
The disparities already are showing in rich states where private hospitals tend to be concentrated.
The capital of New Delhi has given first shots to 20% of its residents, while Bihar state, one of the poorest, has only given shots to about 7.6% of its population. And even states that are providing free shots often can’t keep them in stock — both because of the shortage and competition with the private sector.
Many things Americans gave up over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic are coming back, from parties and meals out to hugs and movies. Normalcy also has a downside: the return of colds, sore throats and the sniffles
“People are taking off their masks, they’re no longer socially distancing, they’re not washing their hands as much, and they’re getting sick again,” said Dr. Aaron Glatt, CEO of Mount Sinai hospital in South Nassau, New York.
Getting back to normal “comes at a price,” said Glatt, who is also a fellow with the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
After a year of almost no colds, no runny noses and no watery eyes, the minor viruses kept in control by COVID-19 restrictions are making a comeback.
Of most importance was influenza, which was at an all-time low this year. The flu season ends in April or May, so it’s not likely to rear up during the summer. But other annoying, though less dangerous viruses, are still out there.
Royal Caribbean is first cruise line to receive CDC approval for a test sailing in US waters – USA Today
Royal Caribbean International is the first cruise line to receive approval from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for one of its ships to do a test sailing in U.S. waters.
“CDC has provisionally approved one cruise ship from Royal Caribbean to begin simulated voyages in June, following a request to conduct a simulated voyage and the submission of an accurate and complete port agreement,” Caitlin Shockey, spokesperson for the CDC, told USA TODAY Tuesday.
“After 15 months and so much work by so many during very challenging times,” Michael Bayley, CEO of Royal Caribbean International, wrote on Facebook.
The cruise line’s Freedom of the Seas ship will be allowed to sail with volunteer passengers. Vaccine requirements are not mandatory for test sailings per the CDC’s Framework for Conditional Sailing Order.
All volunteers for test cruises must be 18 years of age or older, but passengers aren’t required to be vaccinated against COVID-19, though if they aren’t, they must have written documentation from a health care provider or must self certify that they aren’t at a heightened risk for COVID-19, according to the CDC. And all must agree to be evaluated for COVID-19 symptoms before embarking, and after disembarking along with an agreement to be tested for COVID-19 three to five days following the cruise.
Biden Shut Down Wuhan Lab Investigation Probing COVID-19 Origins: Report – ZeroHedge
The Biden administration pulled the plug on a Trump-era State Department investigation into whether COVID-19 originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, according to a Tuesday evening report by CNN.
The effort, led by then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, also sought to determine whether China’s biological weapons program may have played a role in the pandemic. According to the report, it was met with internal opposition from officials who thought it was simply a politicized witch hunt to blame China for the virus.
According to three unnamed sources, when Biden was briefed on the investigations’ findings in February and March, he pulled the plug – and instead opted to trust the findings of the World Health Organization, which conducted an ‘investigation’ earlier this year which turned out to be nothing more than political theater, the cast of which included the highly conflicted Peter Daszak, the Fauci-funded virologist who was studying bat viruses at the Wuhan lab.
“The way they did their work was suspicious as hell,” said one former State Department official who (we’re guessing was rooting for team Schiff during Trump’s impeachment).
Pompeo, meanwhile, said in May 2020 that there was “enormous evidence” and a “significant amount of evidence” to support the lab-escape theory. And according to former senior State Department official David Feith, “People in the US government were working on the question of where Covid-19 came from but there was no other effort that we knew of that took the lab leak possibility seriously enough to focus on digging into certain aspects, questions and uncertainties.“
The revelation that Biden shut down the inquiry is awkward at best, after the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were so sick in November of 2019 that they sought hospitalization, citing the intelligence report that Biden rejected.
… And of course now we know that the ‘venerable Dr. Fauci’ was involved in funding research in Wuhan via EcoHealth Alliance, and now admits “there’s no way of guaranteeing” that American taxpayer funds didn’t go towards “gain-of-function” research to make bat coronaviruses better-infect humans.
[editor’s note: also read Top U.S. health official calls for follow-up investigation into pandemic’s origins and Task Force Leaders Push for Stronger Probe Into COVID’s Origin. And who knows what the truth is – see next headline :)]
Finding SARS-CoV-2 Origin a ‘Critical Priority’ for White House – Medscape
The Biden administration will conduct a deep-dive investigation into the origin and initial transmission of the novel coronavirus, said the White House COVID-19 response team during a news conference Tuesday — just days after a US intelligence report found that three researchers at a lab in China fell ill in November 2019.
“It’s our position that we need to get to the bottom of this,” said White House senior COVID-19 adviser Andy Slavitt. “We need a completely transparent process with China, we need the WHO [World Health Organization] to assist in that matter, we don’t feel like we have that now, but we need to get to the bottom of this whatever the answer may be and that’s a critical priority for us.”
While conspiracy theories claiming the virus was created in a lab have largely been debunked, a recent report by the Wall Street Journal citing US intelligence documents suggests that several workers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology came down with a mysterious illness before the outbreak. The workers reportedly were hospitalized for their illnesses with symptoms consistent with COVID-19.
Though authorities have spent a majority of the pandemic’s duration hypothesizing that the virus was passed from animals — likely bats — to humans, that has changed in recent days.
Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was quoted Monday in multiple media reports saying that he is “not convinced” that the virus occurred naturally outside the lab.
[editor’s note: also read Fauci Defends Chinese Scientists But Says No Guarantee China Lab Didn’t Use U.S. Funding for Research and Trump Says He ‘Usually Did the Opposite’ Of What Fauci Wanted on COVID]
Most Voters Like Dr. Fauci, But Believe Politics Influenced His COVID-19 Decisions – Rasmussen
How much do voters trust Dr. Anthony Fauci? Less than they did a year ago, and a majority believe that the government’s COVID-19 expert has been influenced by politics.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters have a favorable opinion of Fauci, including 34% who have a Very Favorable view of the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. That’s down from 68% and 42%, respectively, in May last year. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters now have an unfavorable opinion of Fauci, including 26% who have a Very Unfavorable view of him. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Forty percent (40%) of voters say that over the past year they have become less confident in Fauci’s COVID-19 recommendations. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say they are now more confident in Fauci’s recommendations than they were a year ago, while 28% say their level of confidence is unchanged.
Why is Chinese state media targeting Fauci amid Wuhan lab controversy? All you need to know – Hindustan Times
The theories over the origins of coronavirus have been contested since the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak as many experts suggested a possible laboratory accident in Wuhan.
The recent remark by top US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci on the origins of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has drawn the ire of the Chinese state media. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of Global Times, wrote a blistering opinion piece on Tuesday, accusing Dr Fauci of attempting to hype “the old and groundless narrative” of coronavirus leaking from a Wuhan laboratory. “In terms of expertise and influence, American experts such as Fauci can hardly match Chinese top experts,” wrote Hu.
“American experts are weaker than their Chinese counterparts in understanding the epidemic and influencing the anti-virus fight,” he added.
The theories over the origins of coronavirus have been contested since the early days of the outbreak as many experts suggested a possible laboratory accident in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the first epicentre of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic. But a global study, convened by the World Health Organization (WHO), deemed it “extremely unlikely”.
Why is Dr Fauci ‘not convinced’?
An international team of experts, who visited Wuhan in January to probe the origins of the virus, identified two most likely scenarios that might have caused SARS-CoV-2 transmission to the human population, including the one involving intermediary host species. At a virtual event titled ‘United Facts of America: A Festival of Fact-Checking’, Fauci was asked whether he was fully convinced with the theory that the virus “developed naturally.”
“I am not convinced…I think we should continue to investigate what went on in China until we find out to the best of our ability exactly what happened,” said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
“Certainly, the people who investigated it say it likely was the emergence from an animal reservoir that then infected individuals, but it could have been something else, and we need to find that out. So, you know, that’s the reason why I said I’m perfectly in favour of any investigation that looks into the origin of the virus,” he added.
The FDA said it may decline to process new emergency use authorization requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the rest of the pandemic if discussions with the company have not already started. – FDA
the FDA updated its guidance, Emergency Use Authorization for Vaccines to Prevent COVID-19, to include a new section that clarifies how the agency intends to prioritize review of EUA requests for the remainder of the COVID-19 public health emergency. As noted in the guidance, for the remainder of the current pandemic, the FDA may decline to review and process further EUA requests other than those for vaccines whose developers have already engaged with the agency as described in the agency’s guidance, “Emergency Use Authorization Vaccines to Prevent COVID-19.”
Intensity and duration of SARS-CoV-2 immunity may depend on ABO blood group – News-Medical
By analyzing various host factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility, the scientists established a positive correlation between age and time required for viral clearance. Moreover, they observed that participants with A+ blood group required significantly higher time (23 days) for viral clearance than those with O+ blood group (13 days).
Furthermore, they observed significantly higher levels of IgG-specific anti-A antibodies in asymptomatic participants compared to that in mildly symptomatic participants. Similarly, among participants with O+ blood group, they observed significantly higher levels of IgG-specific anti-B antibodies in participants with a low viral load than those with a high viral load.
With further analysis, they observed that the incidence of lymphopenia (low lymphocyte count) was more frequent in participants with the A-blood group. Importantly, they observed that although initially presented with robust cellular and humoral immunity, participants with the A-blood group showed a gradual reduction in immune response over time. In contrast, participants with the O-blood group showed exactly the opposite trend with long-lasting immunity against COVID-19.
Immunity to the coronavirus may persist for years, scientists find. – New York Times
Immunity to the coronavirus lasts at least a year, possibly a lifetime, improving over time especially after vaccination, according to two new studies. The findings may help put to rest lingering fears that protection against the virus will be short-lived.
Together, the studies suggest that most people who have recovered from Covid-19 and who were later immunized will not need boosters. Vaccinated people who were never infected most likely will need the shots, however, as will a minority who were infected but did not produce a robust immune response.
Both reports looked at people who had been exposed to the coronavirus about a year earlier. Cells that retain a memory of the virus persist in the bone marrow and may churn out antibodies whenever needed, according to one of the studies, published on Monday in the journal Nature.
The other study, which is also under review for publication in Nature, found that these so-called memory B cells continue to mature and strengthen for at least 12 months after the initial infection.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
India has recorded more than 300,000 deaths. The real toll could be 2 to 10 times greater.
Will the Tokyo Olympics happen this summer? The chorus of critics is growing.
Popular French and German YouTubers and bloggers were offered money by an agency with possible Russian ties to falsely claim the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was responsible for hundreds of deaths.
Large Vessel Stroke Linked to AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine
EU Expects to Get More Than a Billion COVID Shots by September
EU Again Says AstraZeneca Favors U.K., Others With COVID Vaccine Deliveries
The E.U. may seek billions in penalties if AstraZeneca’s vaccine deliveries fall short.
The fate of the Tokyo Olympics could largely rest in the hands of the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee (USOPC), which remains adamant that it will be safe for athletes to compete in Japan despite the country’s growing coronavirus crisis.
Singapore gives initial approval to a breathalyzer test that researchers say can detect Covid-19.
France will introduce mandatory quarantine for travelers coming from the UK
WHO reports 14% drop in global Covid-19 cases
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
A majority of people infected by COVID-19 still have antibodies against the virus 10 months later, according to a study by Labcorp, a life sciences company that specializes in diagnostics and drug development. Labcorp took samples from 39,086 patients, making it the largest real-world study since the start of the pandemic.
Memorial Day weekend collides with surging travel costs
Protesters in Massachusetts called for children to be able to attend school mask-free: “Why are they being made to wear what is essentially a ‘scarlet letter’ on their face for a virus that will not severely affect them?”
Vaccine hesitancy dropped especially among Hispanic and Black survey participants in the Understanding America Study from October 2020 to March 2021.
Tissue-resident memory T cells found in lungs of people who had COVID-19 10 months ago
Vermont Expected to Reach 80% Eligible Vaccinated Next Week
Over $140M in Fake Medical Billing Generated Via COVID Testing Scams: DOJ
Donald Trump Sent CIA to Outbid Rival Nations on PPE, Ex-U.K. Aide Says
Despite gains against the virus, the C.D.C. director says unvaccinated people remain at risk.
Covid-19 did not prompt most older Americans to delay retirement
10 US states have reached Biden’s goal of vaccinating 70% of adults against Covid-19, CDC data shows
Variants and people not getting vaccinated keep CDC director up at night
73% of moderate to severe Covid-19 patients had symptoms months later, analysis finds
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2021 Coincident Indices Generally Improved
Has The COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Demand For Office Space?
Consumer Credit Demand, Supply, And Unmet Need During The Pandemic
Checking The Receipts From Pandemic-Related Spending
Coronavirus: So Many Variants, But Vaccines Are Still Effective
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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