Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 22.6 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 25,595
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 416
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 85.8 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases were little changed and deaths were little changed
- The Jury Is Out on COVID Boosters
- Researchers develop a novel probiotic formulation with high anti-SARS-CoV-2 potency
- In a genomic surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S., variants of concern appeared disproportionately more frequent in kids under 12
- GI Disruption Lasts for Months in Many COVID Survivors
- Pfizer begins testing use of pneumococcal vaccine along with COVID-19 booster shot
- Overseas Americans can travel back to US on expired passports
- Do vaccinations result in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in human milk?
- ‘Breakthrough’ COVID Found in More Than 10K Vaccinated Americans: CDC
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Overseas Americans can travel back to US on expired passports – for now – USA Today
Americans overseas will be allowed to travel back to the U.S. using a recently expired passport, the U.S. State Department announced Monday night, though travelers must meet certain conditions.
U.S. citizens who are currently overseas and whose passports expired on or after Jan. 1, 2020, can use those passports for direct return travel to the U.S. until Dec. 31.
Customs and Border Protection officers will accept certain expired U.S. passports for those reentering the country. Travelers must meet certain criteria, including that they are flying directly to the U.S. (airport connections through foreign countries will be allowed), their passport must have been originally valid for 10 years (or five years if they were a child when it was issued). The expired passport must be undamaged, unaltered and in the traveler’s possession.
The move is “to alleviate travel difficulties and unprecedented appointment backlogs created by the global COVID-19 pandemic,” according to the State Department announcement.
Overseas Americans can’t travel with expired passports to other international destinations, and the passport relief won’t help Europe-bound vacationers in the United States. Many travelers hoping to visit Europe this summer have been stymied by passport backlogs.
The Jury Is Out on COVID Boosters – MedPage
As we continue to roll out COVID-19 vaccination here in the U.S. and, far too slowly, around the world, our next potential challenge is already looming on the horizon: the potential need for booster vaccinations. As we gather and weigh evidence on the necessity of boosters, we must not lose sight of the COVID-19 vaccine strategy that will protect us best and save the most lives.
Vaccine makers have suggested that we will need boosters and the Biden administration is reportedly working to ensure they will be available if necessary. And although it is absolutely right to prepare for the possibility that we may need boosters, in reality, we don’t yet know if we’ll need them and, if so, when. It appears that COVID-19 vaccines licensed in the U.S. provide excellent protection against mild and severe disease and against hospitalization and death, and the protection offered by both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines reportedly lasts for many months.
Determine the Right Vaccine Schedule
Different vaccines need to be given on different schedules to have the greatest protective effect. For seasonal influenza, we give a new vaccine every year because different strains of flu — which are more genetically different from one another than current SARS-CoV-2 variants are from each other — circulate each year, and because immunity conferred by influenza vaccines may wane rapidly.
Recommendations on when to boost vaccines may be guided by evidence on immunity generated by initial vaccine doses or by a person’s risk of exposure or severe disease. We boost some vaccines if exposure has potentially occurred (e.g., tetanus) or if exposure may occur due to travel to an endemic area (e.g., typhoid) or during an outbreak (e.g., measles). We boost other vaccines if underlying medical conditions put someone at higher risk of severe disease (e.g., meningitis). In some circumstances, antibody titers may be checked to assess for evidence of immunity from prior vaccination or infection (e.g., rubella among pregnant women or hepatitis B among healthcare workers).
Gather More Data on COVID-19 Vaccines
Just as we have done for other vaccines, to establish clear guidelines for whether and when to boost, we need: a better understanding of the duration of protection against COVID-19 after vaccination; evidence on how markers of immunity change after COVID-19 vaccination over time; and robust data on how those markers correlate with protection. Levels of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 may decay over time, as they can after other vaccines. However, we don’t know what levels of antibodies correlate with protection against COVID-19. In part, this is because it’s not just antibodies that offer protection after vaccination: T cells may also offer robust, long-lasting immunity.
Vox Stealth Edits March 2020 Article “Debunking” Lab Origin Of COVID – ZeroHedge
Left-wing website Vox has been caught stealth editing an old article from March 2020 “debunking” the lab origin of COVID following numerous prominent officials now saying the lab origin is a distinct possibility.
Writer and investor Paul Graham documented the edits, tweeting, “Some of the stealth edits that Vox made to its article debunking “conspiracy theories” that Covid-19 originated in a lab leak between its original publication in March 2020 and now.”
The edits include removing the words that the virus definitively did “not come from the Wuhan lab” and saying that the fact the virus emerged in the same city in which the lab is located “appears to be pure coincidence” rather than the previously more definitive “is pure coincidence.”
“Vox is editing it articles “debunking” the coronavirus lab leak theory. These edits aren’t being disclosed to readers,” tweeted Mike Cernovich. “Vox is a disinformation website.”
As we highlighted earlier, new information based on a US intelligence report reveals that three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology became so sick in November 2019 that they required hospital treatment.
This followed Dr. Anthony Fauci acknowledging for the first time that the origin of COVID-19 “could have been something else, and we need to find that out.”
Last week, Biden’s CDC Director said she remained open to the possibility that the virus was leaked from the Wuhan lab and scientific groups have also asserted that the lab leak is the most likely source.
[editor’s note: The Wuhan “lab leak” theory now turns to an abandoned copper mine where six workers fell ill in 2012 after clearing bat guano. Also read COVID-19 Wuhan lab theory gets more serious look and Timeline of What Dr. Fauci Has Said About the Wuhan Lab and COVID’s Origins and WHO team pinpoints overlooked Chinese data for further study, source says]
Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the pediatric population of the United States – medRxiv
[editor’s note: In a genomic surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S., variants of concern appeared disproportionately more frequent in kids under 12]
The evolution of SARS-CoV2 virus has led to the emergence of variants of concern (VOC). Children, particularly <12 years old not yet eligible for vaccines, continue to be important reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 yet VOC prevalence data in this population is lacking. We report data from a genomic surveillance program that includes 9 U.S. children’s hospitals. Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 2119 patients <19 years old between 03/20 to 04/21 identified 252 VOCs and 560 VOC signature mutations, most from 10/20 onwards. From 02/21 to 04/21, B.1.1.7 prevalence increased from 3.85% to 72.22% corresponding with the decline of B.1.429/B.1.427 from 51.82% to 16.67% at one institution. 71.74% of the VOC signature mutations detected were in children <12 years old, including 33 cases of B.1.1.7 and 119 of B.1.429/B.1.427. There continues to be a need for ongoing genomic surveillance, particularly among young children who will be the last groups to be vaccinated.
GI Disruption Lasts for Months in Many COVID Survivors – MedPage
Italians who had COVID-19 during the early waves last year were at substantial risk of showing continued gastrointestinal symptoms long after recovering from the infection — especially those who experienced diarrhea during the acute phase, a researcher reported.
Some 18% of COVID-19 survivors in the Lombardy region who responded to a survey said they were still having loose stools, and a number of other GI symptoms appeared more severe in these individuals than in controls who had avoided infection, said Daniele Noviello, MD, of the University of Milan.
Moreover, one-third of the COVID survivors reported chronic fatigue, compared with 14% of controls, Noviello told attendees at the virtual Digestive Disease Week annual meeting.
The report follows many others documenting persistent post-recovery symptoms in a significant minority of COVID survivors, which appear to run the gamut from respiratory difficulties to neurological and psychiatric abnormalities, and now gastrointestinal symptoms.
Because diarrhea and other GI complaints are among the hallmark non-respiratory symptoms of COVID-19, and because Italy was an early hotbed for the infection — centered in the region around Milan — Noviello and colleagues sought to examine how their patients were faring in terms of continued symptoms.
Pfizer begins testing use of pneumococcal vaccine along with COVID-19 booster shot – Reuters
Pfizer Inc said on Monday it began testing fully vaccinated adults over 65 in a new study that uses the company’s 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (20vPnC) candidate with a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 shot.
The aim of the study is to understand if the combination of the vaccines is safe, and the immune response after adding the pneumonia vaccine to the existing COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer said.
The vaccine candidate, 20vPnC, is being developed to help protect adults against 20 serotypes responsible for the majority of invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia.
The new study will include 600 adults who will be recruited from the two companies’ late-stage COVID-19 vaccine study, after having received their second dose of the vaccine at least six months before entering the co-administration study.
Researchers develop a novel probiotic formulation with high anti-SARS-CoV-2 potency – News-Medical
A team of international scientists recently conducted a randomized clinical trial to assess the safety and efficacy profiles of a novel probiotic formulation in symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.
The findings indicate that the probiotic formulation is highly effective in reducing symptom severity in COVID-19 patients without causing any adverse events. The study is currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server.
… Probiotics are live microorganisms with known health benefits. Some studies have suggested that probiotics could be beneficial in mild respiratory infections, such as the common cold. The most common probiotics are lactic acid bacteria, which are known to play a role in maintaining the gut microbiota.
In the current study, the scientists have evaluated the safety and efficacy of a novel probiotic formulation in COVID-19 patients. The formulation comprises three L. plantarum stains (KABP022, KABP023 and KABP033) and one P. acidilacti strain (KABP021).
Do vaccinations result in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in human milk? – News-Medical
Human breastmilk has been found to be one of the best sources of nutrition for infant health and development while also aiding the maturation of the immune system. This is significant as when a pregnant mother experiences an infection, her antibody response can be transferred to the milk, with specific antibodies reportedly being found in milk. Due to the exclusion of pregnant women from initial clinical trials of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines, there are limited data on the effects of vaccination on breastfeeding women.
… This study investigated whether vaccinations for breastfeeding women impacted the antibody levels within the milk produced by mothers, with possible significant anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels being found. While the results may not be representative of all lactating women, it concluded that vaccinations produced higher levels of IgG and IgA antibodies within breast milk, which could then be transmitted to infants, increasing their natural immunity to COVID-19.
For men, low testosterone means high risk of severe COVID-19 – News-Medical
Throughout the pandemic, doctors have seen evidence that men with COVID-19 fare worse, on average, than women with the infection. One theory is that hormonal differences between men and women may make men more susceptible to severe disease. And since men have much more testosterone than women, some scientists have speculated that high levels of testosterone may be to blame.
But a new study from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis suggests that, among men, the opposite may be true: that low testosterone levels in the blood are linked to more severe disease. The study could not prove that low testosterone is a cause of severe COVID-19; low levels could simply serve as a marker of some other causal factors. Still, the researchers urge caution with ongoing clinical trials investigating hormonal therapies that block or lower testosterone or increase estrogen as a treatment for men with COVID-19.
The study appears online May 25 in JAMA Network Open.
“During the pandemic, there has been a prevailing notion that testosterone is bad,” said senior author Abhinav Diwan, MD, a professor of medicine. “But we found the opposite in men. If a man had low testosterone when he first came to the hospital, his risk of having severe COVID-19 — meaning his risk of requiring intensive care or dying — was much higher compared with men who had more circulating testosterone. And if testosterone levels dropped further during hospitalization, the risk increased.”
‘Breakthrough’ COVID Found in More Than 10K Vaccinated Americans: CDC – Medscape
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers report that more than 10,000 fully vaccinated Americans have experienced “breakthrough” COVID-19 through April 30, 2021. They note that the figures are likely an underestimate.
The 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections were reported from January 1 through April 30 in 46 US states and territories. About one quarter of affected people, 27%, were asymptomatic. Two percent, or 160 people, with breakthrough infections died, preliminary data reveal.
A total of 995 people were hospitalized, including 289 hospitalized for asymptomatic infection or for reasons unrelated to COVID-19, lead study author Meseret Birhane, MPH, and colleagues at the CDC note.
The study was published online May 25 in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).
… Because the reporting of breakthrough cases was passive and voluntary, it is likely that the numbers are an underestimate, the CDC researchers note.
The CDC plans to continue collecting information on all COVID-19 breakthrough cases going forward. However, since May 1, the agency has limited its investigation of breakthrough cases to those in which people are hospitalized or die.
[editor’s note: also read Breakthrough infections among vaccinated people are a “small fraction” of Covid-19 cases, CDC report says]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Describing the “scandalous inequity” in global COVID-19 vaccine distribution, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, called on wealthier countries to donate enough supply so that 30% of every nation could be inoculated by year’s end.
Japan says US travel warning for virus won’t hurt Olympians
Russia’s Sputnik V COVID vaccine is “highly effective” against the Brazilian variant, according to a Russian government-led fund and Argentine researchers.
Brazil Senator Says Bolsonaro Never Wanted COVID-19 Vaccines, Preferred Herd Immunity
Russian-Linked Agency Offered Influencers Cash to Discredit Pfizer: Report
Malaysia Sets New COVID Case Record Amid Concerns About New Variant
Model Stephanie Dubois Suffers Blood Clot, Dies After Getting COVID Shot [ AstraZeneca]
More than 75% of all vaccines have been administered in just 10 countries, World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday. “The ongoing vaccine crisis is a scandalous inequity that’s perpetuating the pandemic,” he said.
India reports 196,000 Covid-19 cases — the lowest single-day rise in over a month
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
White House expects US to reach 50% adults fully vaccinated today
More than 150 veterans’ cemeteries, including Arlington, will drop restrictions on gatherings before Memorial Day.
Last week, Biden announced the U.S. would send 20 million doses abroad in addition to the 60 million he promised to India, but experts say the U.S. needs to do more, quickly.
The Moderna vaccine was 93% effective against COVID-19 in children aged 12 to 17 after the first dose and 100% two weeks after the second dose, with no cases reported among vaccinated participants. In addition, no serious safety concerns were identified, data from the company’s trial released Tuesday showed.
Suicide deaths in US dropped at the height of pandemic lockdowns
Summer camps can’t get enough counselors. Thousands are stuck overseas
Immunocompromised face threat from people not vaccinated
How the pandemic pushed restaurant workers over the edge
Las Vegas plans to remove all COVID restrictions June 1, in time for the first large, in-person convention scheduled in the U.S. since the pandemic started.
Repurposed gout medication (probenecid) shows potent inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 replication
U of M Medical School receives $1.5M for nation’s first ivermectin COVID-19 clinical trial
Nearly half of COVID-19 patients left hospital in worse physical condition
US to achieve full vaccinations for half of adults on Tuesday: WH official
United Airlines to Issue Free Flights to Vaccinated Loyalty Members
Children who get sick from the rare but serious Covid-related inflammatory syndrome may surmount their most significant symptoms within six months, but they may still have muscle weakness and emotional difficulties at that time, a new small study suggests.
Fewer than half of Americans are now social distancing, poll finds
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2021 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Little Changed
May 2021 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Marginally Improves
April 2021 Headline New Home Sales Slow
S and P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index March 2021 Year-over-Year Growth Continues
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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