Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 23.7 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.7 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 14,144
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 189
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 85.4 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases were little changed and deaths improved
- ‘Not convinced’ COVID-19 developed naturally, need more open investigations: Dr Anthony Fauci
- New information on Wuhan researchers’ illness furthers the debate on pandemic origins
- Dr. Scott Gottlieb says vaccinations are not the only factor driving U.S. Covid cases down
- Many unvaccinated Republicans and minorities have something in common: They are working class
- Regular, moderate to vigorous physical activity is associated with reduced risk of community-acquired infectious diseases and infectious disease mortality, enhances the first line of defence of the immune system, and increases the potency of vaccination.
- Little evidence for mRNA COVID-19 vaccine-associated thrombocytopenia
- Doctors Claim A Cocktail Of Cheap Drugs Could Help India Extinguish COVID Crisis
- First Vaccine Data Against Indian Variant
- Proof that face masks reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission
- Good news: Mild COVID-19 induces lasting antibody protection
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Covid’s ‘deaths of despair’ – New York Times
It is common to hear about two different demographic groups that are hesitant to receive a Covid-19 vaccination: Republican voters and racial minorities, especially Black and Latino Americans.
The two groups seem to have different motivations. For Republicans, the attitude is connected to a general skepticism of government and science. For Black and Hispanic Americans, it appears to stem from the country’s legacy of providing substandard medical treatment, and sometimes doing outright harm, to minorities.
These ideas all have some truth to them. But they also can obscure the fact that many unvaccinated Republicans and minorities have something in common: They are working class. And there is a huge class gap in vaccination behavior.
Here is a look at vaccination behavior by racial groups and political identification, based on polling by the Kaiser Family Foundation:
By The New York Times | Source: Kaiser Family FoundationHere are those same groups subdivided by class, using a four-year college degree as the dividing line between working class and professional:
By The New York Times | Source: Kaiser Family FoundationAs you can see, working-class members of every group are less likely to have received a vaccine and more likely to be skeptical.
Doctors Claim A Cocktail Of Cheap Drugs Could Help India Extinguish COVID Crisis – ZeroHedge
Last week, we reported that several increasingly desperate communities across India have been embracing a controversial (at least, in the US) strategy for trying to mitigate the fallout from the crisis. Communities have been doling out inexpensive anti-malaria drugs as a prophylactic against COVID-19, citing scant data showing it could help lower mortality and hospitalization rates – which is critical given India’s nationwide shortage of hospital beds and oxygen to sustain seriously ill patients.
The drug in question, ivermectin, is in some ways similar to hydroxychloroquine, which also showed some evidence of being an effective prophylactic to protect the most vulnerable against COVID-19 (President Trump memorably informed the press that he was taking it daily at one point). But since India is mostly cut off from adequate supplies of vaccines and therapeutics like Gilead’s remdesivir (which studies have shown isn’t all that effective anyway), public health officials have been forced to improvise.
The Times of India published an editorial this week signed by Dr. Vikas Sukhatme and Vidula Sukhatme, two American academics and medical professionals, suggesting a handful of cheap, commonplace drugs that could be taken as prophylactics by the most vulnerable patients in India. The drugs aren’t approved to treat COVID, but nevertheless have shown “remarkable promise in preventing or treating the new coronavirus.” Deploying them would likely reduce mortality and hospitalizations. While some of the drugs are currently being tested in large-scale randomized trials, there’s no time to wait for the outcome.
Instead, Indian health authorities should issue guidelines recommending use of the most promising drugs for each stage of COVID-19. By so doing, physicians will be encouraged to prescribe them as interventions. The resulting data should of course be tracked for any insights it might show.
The two main drugs cited by the doctors, ivermectin and fluvoxamine, have proven effective, and anecdotal unpublished data from more than 400 acutely ill COVID-19 patients suggests that prescribing fluvoxamine and ivermectin together may be even more efficacious.
‘Not convinced’ COVID-19 developed naturally, need more open investigations: Dr Anthony Fauci – Zee
Dr Anthony Fauci, America’s top health expert and the director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), has said that he is “not convinced” that the COVID-19 virus which affected millions across the globe developed naturally.
Dr Fauci even called for an open investigation into the origin of the deadly virus. The top US health expert made these remarks during an event, United Facts of America: A Festival of Fact-Checking event.
“There’s a lot of cloudiness around the origins of COVID-19 still, so I wanted to ask, are you still confident that it developed naturally?” he said. He said this in response to a question asked by PolitiFact’s Katie Sanders.
“I am not convinced about that, I think we should continue to investigate what went on in China until we continue to find out to the best of our ability what happened,” he said during the event, which was held earlier this month but overlooked by most media outlets.
“Certainly, the people who investigated it say it likely was the emergence from an animal reservoir that then infected individuals, but it could have been something else, and we need to find that out. So, you know, that’s the reason why I said I’m perfectly in favor of any investigation that looks into the origin of the virus,” Dr Fauci said, according to Fox News.
New information on Wuhan researchers’ illness furthers debate on pandemic origins – CNN
A US intelligence report found that several researchers at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology fell ill in November 2019 and had to be hospitalized, a new detail about the severity of their symptoms that could fuel further debate about the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, according to two people briefed on the intelligence.
A State Department fact sheet released by the Trump administration in January said that the researchers had gotten sick in autumn 2019 but did not go as far as to say they had been hospitalized. China reported to the World Health Organization that the first patient with Covid-like symptoms was recorded in Wuhan on December 8, 2019.
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the intelligence surrounding the earlier hospitalizations.
Importantly, the intelligence community still does not know what the researchers were actually sick with, said the people briefed, and continues to have low confidence in its assessments of the virus’ precise origins beyond the fact that it came from China. “At the end of the day, there is still nothing definitive,” said one of the people who has seen the intelligence.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told lawmakers during the Worldwide Threats Hearing last month that “the intelligence community does not know exactly where, when, or how Covid-19 virus was transmitted initially,” an assessment that has not changed, said two of the people briefed on the intelligence.
The current intelligence reinforces the belief that the virus most likely originated naturally, from animal-human contact, the sources said. But that does not preclude the possibility that the virus was the result of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute, where coronavirus research was being conducted on bats.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb says vaccinations are not the only factor driving U.S. Covid cases down – CNBC
- Covid vaccinations are not the only reason U.S. coronavirus cases keep falling, Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday.
- Other factors include warming weather, cautious behavior and the fact that a portion of unvaccinated Americans have been previously infected, according to the former FDA chief.
- “I think we’re going to have a very quiet summer with respect to coronavirus spread and then have to contend with it again as we head into the winter,” Gottlieb said.
First Vaccine Data Against Indian Variant – MedPage
Both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines showed effectiveness against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, the so-called Indian variant, British researchers found.
Two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine showed 87.9% efficacy (95% CI 78.2%-93.2%) against the variant, while two doses of AstraZeneca’s showed 59.8% efficacy (95% CI 28.9%-77.3%), reported Jamie Lopez Bernal, PhD, of Public Health England in London, and colleagues in a preprint manuscript online.
Vaccine effectiveness after one dose against B.1.617.2 was similarly low for both vaccines, at 33%.
[editor’s note: also read Two doses of Covid vaccines provide protection against variants, study finds]
Regular, moderate to vigorous physical activity is associated with reduced risk of community-acquired infectious diseases and infectious disease mortality, enhances the first line of defence of the immune system, and increases the potency of vaccination.
Higher level of habitual physical activity is associated with a 31% risk reduction (hazard ratio 0.69, 95% CI 0.61-0.78, 6 studies, N = 557,487 individuals) of community-acquired infectious disease and 37% risk reduction (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.59-0.70, 4 studies, N = 422,813 individuals) of infectious disease mortality. Physical activity interventions resulted in increased CD4 cell counts (32 cells/µL, 95% CI 7-56 cells/µL, 24 studies, N = 1112 individuals) and salivary immunoglobulin IgA concentration (standardised mean difference 0.756, 95% CI 0.146-1.365, 7 studies, N = 435 individuals) and decreased neutrophil counts (704 cells/µL, 95% CI 68-1340, 6 studies, N = 704 individuals) compared to controls. Antibody concentration after vaccination is higher with an adjunct physical activity programme (standardised mean difference 0.142, 95% CI 0.021-0.262, 6 studies, N = 497 individuals).
Little evidence for mRNA COVID-19 vaccine-associated thrombocytopenia – MedPage
Even as a host of vaccines have been rolled out to counter the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, some serious adverse effects have been reported, in the form of thrombocytopenia. A new study in the journal Vaccine reports the results of an evaluation of reported cases of this condition, using data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
Of the approximately 19 million and 16 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine administered in the USA, respectively, these careful selection criteria identified 15 and 13 cases of thrombocytopenia, corresponding to less than one reported case per million doses of either vaccine. No sex difference was observed, and the median age was 49 years, though the condition was reported from 22 to 82 years.
The median duration from vaccination to onset of thrombocytopenia was 5.5 days, with a range of 1-23 days. Earlier reports on ITP in COVID-19 cases indicated a median time of onset at 13 days. Typically, however, the presentation occurred at 2-3 weeks from symptom onset, with only one in five patients presenting within a week or less.
The short period to onset of thrombocytopenia is not clear since immune reactions typically take longer to set in. Another explanation could be that these patients had previously been infected by the virus, which produced sensitization. In this case, the vaccine acted to produce a hypersensitivity reaction.
However, given the lack of data on a history of COVID-19 in these patients, this can only be hypothetical.
Proof that face masks reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission – News-Medical
Researchers in Germany and China have conducted a study analyzing the efficacy of face masks in mitigating the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the agent that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Hang Su from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and colleagues showed that variations in the efficacy of mask-wearing can be accounted for by differing levels of SARS-CoV-2 abundance and can be related to the population-average infection probability.
The team found that the abundance of the virus is low in most environments, meaning surgical masks would be effective at preventing transmission.
However, in potentially virus-rich indoor environments such as hospitals and medical centers, more advanced masks and other protective equipment would be needed to prevent transmission, says Su and colleagues.
Writing in the journal Science*, the researchers also say that masks are particularly effective when used in combination with other preventive measures such as ventilation and social distancing.
Good news: Mild COVID-19 induces lasting antibody protection – EurekAlert
Months after recovering from mild cases of COVID-19, people still have immune cells in their body pumping out antibodies against the virus that causes COVID-19, according to a study from researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. Such cells could persist for a lifetime, churning out antibodies all the while.
The findings, published May 24 in the journal Nature, suggest that mild cases of COVID-19 leave those infected with lasting antibody protection and that repeated bouts of illness are likely to be uncommon.
“Last fall, there were reports that antibodies wane quickly after infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, and mainstream media interpreted that to mean that immunity was not long-lived,” said senior author Ali Ellebedy, PhD, an associate professor of pathology & immunology, of medicine and of molecular microbiology. “But that’s a misinterpretation of the data. It’s normal for antibody levels to go down after acute infection, but they don’t go down to zero; they plateau. Here, we found antibody-producing cells in people 11 months after first symptoms. These cells will live and produce antibodies for the rest of people’s lives. That’s strong evidence for long-lasting immunity.”
… As expected, antibody levels in the blood of the COVID-19 participants dropped quickly in the first few months after infection and then mostly leveled off, with some antibodies detectable even 11 months after infection. Further, 15 of the 19 bone marrow samples from people who had had COVID-19 contained antibody-producing cells specifically targeting the virus that causes COVID-19. Such cells could still be found four months later in the five people who came back to provide a second bone-marrow sample. None of the 11 people who had never had COVID-19 had such antibody-producing cells in their bone marrow.
“People with mild cases of COVID-19 clear the virus from their bodies two to three weeks after infection, so there would be no virus driving an active immune response seven or 11 months after infection,” Ellebedy said. “These cells are not dividing. They are quiescent, just sitting in the bone marrow and secreting antibodies. They have been doing that ever since the infection resolved, and they will continue doing that indefinitely.”
People who were infected and never had symptoms also may be left with long-lasting immunity, the researchers speculated. But it’s yet to be investigated whether those who endured more severe infection would be protected against a future bout of disease, they said.
“It could go either way,” said first author Jackson Turner, PhD, an instructor in pathology & immunology. “Inflammation plays a major role in severe COVID-19, and too much inflammation can lead to defective immune responses. But on the other hand, the reason why people get really sick is often because they have a lot of virus in their bodies, and having a lot of virus around can lead to a good immune response. So it’s not clear. We need to replicate the study in people with moderate to severe infections to understand whether they are likely to be protected from reinfection.”
Inside the Race to Find a COVID-19 Treatment Pill – Medscape
… But after almost 18 months of the pandemic, there is still no easy-to-administer treatment proven to be effective against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. That is despite the development of a number of effective COVID-19 vaccines, including one from Pfizer and German partner BioNTech SE, which in December became the first to gain authorization for use in the United States.
Pfizer’s experience underscores the challenges drugmakers face in developing an oral treatment for the virus. Unlike a vaccine, which needs only to trigger the body’s own immune system, an effective antiviral pill must block a virus from spreading throughout the body while also being selective enough to avoid interfering with healthy cells.
Testing antivirals is also difficult, drug company executives say. A drug needs to be given early in the course of an infection, which means finding trial participants who have recently contracted COVID-19. Many people infected with the virus develop only mild symptoms, but studies need to prove that a drug has a meaningful impact on patient health.
Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla has said the company could seek emergency authorization in the United States for a COVID-19 pill as soon as late this year.
“Right now we have very good reason to believe that we can be successful,” Bourla told an economic forum in Greece via video conference last week.
Pfizer and its rivals say the development process has been much faster than the several years it typically takes to produce a drug that can be taken as a pill.
Merck and Roche recently started late-stage human trials and have also said their drugs could be ready by later this year. Merck is developing its drug in partnership with biotech Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP and Roche is working with Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Governments around the world have poured billions of dollars into vaccine development, but Pfizer, Merck and Roche say they have not received government funding to develop oral antivirals for the disease.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
India virus death toll passes 300,000, 3rd highest in world
Japan opens mass vaccination centers 2 months before Games
A recent study found that one dog can screen up to 250 people in an hour, according to researchers with The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Medical Detection Dogs and Durham University. The next stage of research will involve screening infected people in real-world settings.
Moscow Mayor Decries Low Demand for COVID-19 Vaccines
COVID-19 Deaths in Latin America Set to Surpass 1 Mln, as Outbreak Worsens
Canada Could See COVID Resurgence; Only 4 Percent Have Had Both Shots
Couple Get Married on Plane Filled With Guests to Exploit Lockdown Loophole
Hospitals in Japan’s Second Largest City on Brink of Collapse Due to COVID. Osaka has bore the brunt of Japan’s most recent coronavirus surge and officials worry the dire situation will only turn worse as the Olympic games approach.
Tourists from Japan and the UK can visit without testing or quarantines
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Heart inflammation in vaccinated youth: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is reviewing a small number of cases of heart inflammation, known as myocarditis, in vaccinated young adults and teenagers. A group of experts has concluded that cases seem to occur more often in males than females, more often following the second dose, and typically within four days after vaccination.
COVID brings rise in multigenerational home sales
Mount Everest: ‘At least 100 people’ positive for COVID, outfitter…
Daily new case counts and deaths are now at their lowest since last June.
Latest CDC data indicate that 58.2% of the vaccine-eligible U.S. population (12 and up) has received at least one shot of a COVID vaccine, and 46.4% are fully vaccinated.
Could women with polycystic ovary syndrome be at increased risk of COVID-19?
So, what exactly is safe for children who are too young to get vaccinated?
COVID-19 infection rates of dentists remain lower than other health professionals
CDC: Schools Requiring Masks Had Lower Infection Rates
In 25 States, More Than Half Of Adults Are Fully Vaccinated
United Airlines to Issue Free Flights to Vaccinated Loyalty Members
More than 2.7 million Ohioans have registered for state’s Vax-a-Million drawing
North Carolina will give $25 to individuals who get the Covid-19 vaccine
First participants get shots in trial of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine booster
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2021 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Declined
Household Distress During The COVID-19 Pandemic
Where Europeans Get To Work From Home
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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