Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 21.3 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 28,849
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 694
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 83.5 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases were little changed and deaths worsened
- BioNTech CEO Says Vaccine Up to 75% Effective Against India Variant
- Current coronavirus vaccines unlikely to protect against new variants in future
- New COVID-19 rapid test kit receives scientific seal of approval
- Antibodies against coronavirus variants weaken in 6-12 months
- Face masks effectively limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission
- Australian discovery could speed up SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development
- Fact check: No link between India’s falling COVID-19 cases and hydroxychloroquine
- When COVID-19 is severe, rogue antibodies attack body tissues and organs
- Ventilation and surveillance testing can help keep U.S. schools open in the fall
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
New COVID-19 rapid test kit receives scientific seal of approval – EurekAlert
Simon Fraser University researchers have validated a faster, cheaper COVID-19 test that could kickstart the expansion of more widespread rapid testing. Study results have been published in The Journal of Molecular Diagnostics.
“This research offers a cheaper, faster alternative to the most reliable and sensitive test currently used worldwide, without sacrificing sensitivity and reproducibility,” says molecular biology and biochemistry professor Peter Unrau, who led the team evaluating the COVID-19 test kit.
The researchers suggest the test could be deployed in remote locations, clinics and airports due to its ease of use and portability.
The microchip real-time PCR test can provide accurate results in 30 minutes and requires 10 times less reagents than the tube-based RT-PCR tests approved by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Supply chain shortages of reagents and test kits during the pandemic has slowed the rapid expansion of clinical testing. This new COVID-19 test kit is another tool in the toolbox that uses less of the supply constrained reagents to achieve fast and accurate results.
When COVID-19 is severe, rogue antibodies attack body tissues and organs – News-Medical
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), impacts patients in various ways. While most people develop only mild to moderate symptoms, some patients experience severe and potentially fatal symptoms.
COVID-19 presents with a wide range of clinical manifestations characterized by misdirected and exaggerated innate immune responses. The role of autoantibodies in disease progression is unknown, but these activations have been well documented for patients with severe disease.
A cytokine storm has been cited as a significant contributor to severe symptoms. This is because of the immune system going haywire and causing massive damage to vital organs. Much remains unknown about the path the virus takes in severe cases, but past evidence shows a hyperactive immune response is tied to COVID-19 death.
Researchers at Yale University showed that the development of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 infection might go berserk and rogue, causing severe cases of COVID-19. These antibodies target and react with the body’s tissues and organs, similar to those that cause autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis and lupus.
The study, published in the journal Nature, sheds light on the disease mechanism of COVID-19 and how the virus causes a faulty immune system.
IDSA Sees ‘Widespread’ Confusion, Frustration Over CDC Mask Policy – MedPage
The CDC’s announcement last week that people who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 no longer have to wear masks came as a surprise “bombshell” for infectious disease experts and policymakers across the nation, top officials of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) said during a Thursday news conference.
The interim announcement on May 13 from CDC director Rochelle Walensky, MD, was “abrupt, and I think as you see, was misinterpreted by many as ‘mask mandates are over,’ and even to some that the COVID-19 outbreak threat is over,” said Jeffrey Duchin, MD, a member of the IDSA board of directors and a public health officer for Seattle and King County in Washington
The seemingly sudden shift has led to “widespread confusion and frustration,” and has put public health officials like himself in a rough spot because it “was unexpected and lacked needed context for implementation by state and local public health communities,” he added.
When asked what the agency should have done differently, Duchin said that the CDC should have communicated sound reasons for why vaccinated people may want to continue to mask “until we know that everyone is safe and vaccination rates are high and disease rates are low enough.”
Additionally, it should have appreciated the implementation challenges for businesses, schools, and public health officials trying to determine who is vaccinated and who isn’t. “If you’re going to have policies that say only the vaccinated can go unmasked, that’s very hard, in fact, to apply in the real world,” he noted. Those who must implement the policy are unable to verify vaccination status of unmasked people in public settings, and the potential impact of unvaccinated people no longer masking is unknown, he added.
Duchin emphasized that the agency’s guidance was based on facts. It’s true that vaccinated people have a very high level of protection against COVID-19 compared with the unvaccinated, and a much lower chance of getting sick or spreading COVID-19 to others. “The return to normal activities is safe for vaccinated people. There is no debate about this fact.”
But “ending the indoor mask mandate at this time in some areas can lead to increased risk in public spaces and workplaces, with preventable COVID-19 spread primarily among the unvaccinated,” he added.
BioNTech CEO Says Vaccine Up to 75% Effective Against India Variant – Medscape
BioNTech SE Chief Executive Ugur Sahin said on Thursday the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with Pfizer Inc is expected to be 70% to 75% effective in protecting against infections caused by the coronavirus variant first detected in India.
“So far we’ve had the chance to test our vaccine against more than 30 variants of the virus. It has proven effective against mutations so far,” said Sahin, a German scientist with Turkish parents, speaking Turkish in televised comments.
Tests this week have focused on the India variant, he said. “We expect (our vaccine) to protect against infections by 70% to 75%,” he said after virtually attending the Turkish government’s science council meeting.
Since the concerning COVID-19 variant, known as B.1.617, was first identified in India, it has ravaged that country and spread to at least 26 nations out of the 53 in the World Health Organization’s (WHO) European Region, the organization said.
Last week, the WHO added B.1.617 to its list of variants of concern (VOC). On May 7, the UK designated the B.1.617.2 sublineage, whose prevalence is growing there, as a VOC.
The WHO’s regional director said on Thursday COVID-19 vaccines being deployed in Europe, including the Pfizer/BioNTech shot, appear able to protect against circulating virus variants that have caused concern because they are more easily transmitted.
Ventilation and surveillance testing can help keep U.S. schools open in the fall, new studies suggest. – New York Times
Several Covid-19 mitigation measures — including improving ventilation, requiring adults to wear face masks and conducting frequent surveillance testing — can help schools stay open and students remain safe, two new studies suggest.
The studies, published on Friday, come as many school districts are drawing up their plans for the fall. They also follow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance that all schools teaching students from kindergarten through grade 12 should continue to implement mask-wearing policies through the end of the 2020-2021 school year, after the agency’s recent move to allow for vaccinated people to forego masks indoors. The agency also kept in place its suggestions to observe physical distancing and to test for coronavirus infections.
In one of the new studies, researchers from the C.D.C. and the Georgia Department of Public Health surveyed 169 elementary schools in Georgia that offered in-person learning last fall. The group asked the schools about their pandemic responses and collected data on the coronavirus cases detected between Nov. 16 and Dec. 11, before vaccines were in use in the United States.
The researchers found that the incidence of the virus was 35 percent lower in schools that had improved their ventilation — by opening windows or doors, or using fans — than in schools that did not adopt these practices. In schools that combined better ventilation with air filtration — through the use of HEPA filters, for instance — case rates were 48 percent lower.
Requiring all teachers and staff members to wear masks reduced the incidence of the virus by 37 percent, the researchers found. Schools that required students to wear masks had a 21-percent-lower incidence of the virus, but that reduction was not statistically significant, the scientists found. That may be a result of the fact that adults are more likely to transmit the virus than children are, or simply because of a small sample size.
Vaccinated? The White House highlights a plan to encourage singles to swipe right. – New York Times
With a non-zero amount of awkwardness, the Biden administration on Friday highlighted a new plan to encourage more people to get vaccinated: an effort by a number of popular dating apps that will encourage pent-up young singles to promote their vaccination status, as the promise of a maskless summer grows tantalizingly within reach.
“We have finally found the one thing that makes us all more attractive: a vaccination,” Andy Slavitt, one of President Biden’s top coronavirus advisers, deadpanned during a virtual briefing for reporters. He later added, “In all seriousness, people are interested in other things in life besides their vaccine.”
Mr. Slavitt said that popular apps like Tinder, OkCupid, and Hinge — along with a suite of others, including BLK and Chispa, that cater to daters in specific communities — will add new features designed to reach a population of young people who may have been largely isolated from each other during the course of the pandemic, and will promote the idea that getting a shot could help users get a date. Tinder plans to launch a “Vaccine Center” to help users find nearby vaccination sites.
Current COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to protect against new variants of the virus in the future, the government’s scientific advisers have warned.
In a paper published on Friday, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said coronavirus may continue to evolve for years to come and that “eradication is extremely unlikely”.
The experts warn that eventually it is likely “current vaccines will fail to protect against transmission, infection, or even against disease caused by newer variants”.
The document, which considers the long-term plan for COVID jabs, says that “loss of vaccine effectiveness will result in further economic and social costs” and “a solution is to update vaccines to keep pace with virus evolution”.
The scientists add that “we should also consider whether future vaccination policy will aim to immunise the whole population or only those at risk from severe disease”.
Antibodies against coronavirus variants weaken in 6-12 months: study – Kyodo
Antibodies in people infected by older versions of the novel coronavirus could become weaker in defending against COVID-19 variants over time, a recent study by a Japanese university showed.
The findings by a Yokohama City University research team suggest that people who were infected in the early days of the pandemic, particularly those who had mild or no symptoms, still need to be vaccinated to reduce the risk of being infected by variants from Britain, South Africa, Brazil and India.
In the study, conducted on 250 people between the ages of 21 and 78, who tested positive for COVID-19 between February and April last year, 97 percent of those with mild or no symptoms had antibodies against the coronavirus six months after being infected. One year later, 96 percent of them still had antibodies to the disease.
Those who showed more severe symptoms all had COVID-19 antibodies after one year.
As for the variants, 69 percent of those who experienced mild or no symptoms had antibodies to fight off infections to the mutated strain from South Africa six months later, 75 percent against the Indian strain, 81 percent against the Brazilian variant and 85 percent against the British type, the study showed. The percentages declined slightly more than one year later.
Antibody levels in the blood of former patients who had moderate to severe symptoms weakened only slightly against the virus variants in one year, according to the study.
Through 12 months after testing positive, at least 90 percent of such people had antibodies effective enough to block any of the four types of variants from infecting cells.
The study suggests that people with mild or no COVID-19 symptoms do not trigger an antibody response as strong those who develop a more serious illness, the team said.
Fact check: No link between India’s falling COVID-19 cases and hydroxychloroquine – USA Today
With 26 million confirmed cases and more than 291,000 deaths due to COVID-19, India has been hit hard by the pandemic. The country’s health care system is overwhelmed, its crematoriums are running at full capacity, and just 3% of citizens are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.
An American conservative website says two drugs may be a solution to the crisis.
“Coronavirus cases are plummeting in India thanks to new rules that promote ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine to its massive population,” wrote the Gateway Pundit in a May 17 article.
As evidence, the Gateway Pundit — which has previously published false claims about face masks and election fraud, among other things — linked to a post from the COVID Blog, which says it endeavors to report the “truth about COVID vaccines and the severe adverse effects thereof.” The website cited guidance from India’s Health and Family Welfare Ministry for people with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.
… New daily coronavirus cases in India have fallen since their peak in early May. But there is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin have played a role in that trend.
“Hydroxychloroquine has no efficacy whatsoever for COVID and there are numerous trials showing no benefit. Ivermectin is unproven and its indication is for treatment, not for prevention, of disease,” Dr. Amita Gupta, deputy director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Clinical Global Health Education, said in an email. “So there is no basis for this being the reason for the decrease in cases.”
[editor’s note: There are studies on both sides of this issue]
Face masks effectively limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission – EurekAlert
‘Don’t forget the mask’ – although most people nowadays follow this advice, professionals express different opinions about the effectiveness of face masks. An international team led by researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, has now used observational data and model calculations to answer open questions. The study shows under which conditions and in which way masks actually reduce individual and population-average risks of being infected with COVID-19 and help mitigate the corona pandemic. In most environments and situations, even simple surgical masks effectively reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the effective reproduction number for COVID-19. In environments with potentially high airborne virus concentrations such as medical settings and densely occupied indoor spaces, however, masks with higher filtration efficiency (N95/FFP2) should be used and combined with other protective measures such as intensive ventilation.
Face masks are among the most simple, easy-to-use, and effective measure against the airborne transmission of infectious respiratory diseases, but their usefulness against COVID-19 is still under debate. Some earlier investigations found that masks were apparently not effective under certain conditions. Others found high efficacies, but a conclusive explanation for the apparent contradictions and inconsistencies had not been given.
Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC), the Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, and the Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin together with partners from China and the USA used observational data and a novel quantitative model of airborne virus exposure to elucidate how the efficacy of face masks depends on characteristic regimes of airborne virus concentration.
In most situations, even simple surgical masks are effective
“For the airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, we find that usually just a minor fraction of exhaled respiratory particles contains viruses. Most environments and contacts are under virus-limited conditions, where face masks, including simple surgical masks, have a high efficacy in preventing the spread of COVID-19”, explains Yafang Cheng, the head of a Minerva Research Group at the MPIC. “Our study provides a detailed and novel mechanistic understanding of population-average mask efficacy, which explains why regions with a higher percentage of the population wearing masks have better control of the pandemic.”
In virus-rich indoor environments with high infection probability, however, more advanced masks (N95/FFP2) and other protective equipment are required to prevent airborne transmission. The strong dependence of mask efficacy on airborne virus concentration highlights the importance of combining masks with other protective measures such as ventilation and distancing to keep the infection probability low.
Australian discovery could speed up SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development – News-Medical
It has been about 16 months since severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) appeared in Wuhan, China, but the relationship between immunity and clinical protection from SARS-CoV-2 is still unknown. Reliable predictive models of immune protection from infection are still unavailable. Models like these are essential in identifying correlates of protection for SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations in the future.
To address this gap, researchers from Australia recently examined the relationship between levels of in vitro neutralization and the observed protection obtained from SARS-CoV-2 infection. They used data from 7 currently available vaccines and convalescent cohorts. Their research is published in the journal Nature Medicine.
The researchers estimated that the neutralization level needed for 50% protection against detectable infection is 20.2% of the mean convalescent level. The estimated neutralization level for 50% protection from severe SARS-CoV-2 infection was considerably lower at 3% of the mean convalescent level.
“Neutralising antibodies are tiny Y-shaped proteins produced by our body in response to infection or vaccination. They bind to the virus, reducing its ability to infect,” says Dr Deborah Cromer from the Kirby Institute.
“While we have known for some time that neutralising antibodies are likely to be a critical part of our immune response to COVID-19, we haven’t known how much antibody you need for immunity. Our work is the strongest evidence to date to show that specific antibody levels translate to high levels of protection from disease.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Latin America Poised to Benefit as US Raises Exports of COVID-19 Shots: Sources
G20 Leaders to Back COVID-19 Vaccine Voluntary Licensing, No Patent Waiver
Biden: US will provide vaccinations for South Korean service members
Spain welcomes vaccinated Americans starting June 7
Officials worry that recent fighting in Gaza could lead to a coronavirus spike.
Virus deaths are probably two to three times more than official records, the W.H.O. says.
Patients in Africa with severe Covid are more likely to die, research finds.
The rescheduled 2020 Olympics will go on even if a state of emergency is declared in the city this summer, a top Olympics official said Friday, dismissing once again the suggestion that the pandemic might force a postponement or cancellation of a global sports showcase that has already been delayed a year.
For many Europeans, virus rules fall away and freedom arrives.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
We spent a lot of time online during the pandemic. It’s making us sick.
Why ‘getting back to normal’ may actually feel terrifying
Iowa Joins US States Forbidding COVID-19 Mask Mandates in Schools
Dating Apps Are Making It Easier To Swipe Right For A Match Who’s Vaccinated
Oregon unveils $1 million vaccine lottery
New York Mandate Requires Kids Over 2 to Wear Face Masks at Day Care, Camp
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Keeping Borrowers Current In A Pandemic – Part I Of IV
What Happens During Mortgage Forbearance? – Part II Of IV
Small Business Owners Turn To Personal Credit – Part III Of IV
Whats Next For Forborne Borrowers? – Part IV Of IV
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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