Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 21.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 5.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 29,701
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 654
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 82.9 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases IMPROVED and deaths IMPROVED
- Low Supply, High Demand: Pandemic Woes Send Food Prices Soaring
- Here’s Why This Doctor Got a Third Vaccine Dose
- Just 2% of SARS-CoV-2−positive individuals carry 90% of the virus circulating in communities
- Unvaccinated Americans are less worried about traveling than vaccinated Americans are, study says
- Old records shed new light on smallpox outbreaks in 1700s
- New Coronavirus Detected In Patients At Malaysian Hospital; The Source May Be Dogs
- FDA recommends not using syringes from Chinese firm after safety issues with vaccine injections
- Plus Many More National and International Headlines
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Here’s Why This Doc Got a Third Vaccine Dose – MedPage
A month after his second dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, Robert Montgomery, MD, found his antibody response lacking.
The surgeon and director of the NYU Langone Transplant Institute in New York City is himself a heart transplant recipient — placing him among the immunocompromised and making him keenly aware that being fully vaccinated didn’t necessarily mean he’d be immune to COVID-19.
So Montgomery stepped into uncharted territory when he took a third vaccine dose, crossing over to the Johnson & Johnson shot.
“It now looks like I have a normal response, similar to someone who is not immunocompromised,” Montgomery told MedPage Today.
He cautioned that he’s an “n-of-1” and that many questions need to be addressed before making wide recommendations for immunosuppressed patients, but noted that the potential benefits of a third dose outweighed its unknown risks in his case.
It’s estimated that there are about 10 million immunocompromised patients in the U.S. Some 500,000 of them are transplant recipients, while the rest have other autoimmune conditions — like rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, and multiple sclerosis — and are taking immunosuppressive drugs.
The pandemic may now be in permanent retreat in the U.S. – New York Times
I want to end this week by showing you two Covid-19 charts. They contain the same message: The pandemic is in retreat.
By The New York Times | Sources: State and local health agencies and hospitals
In the United States, there is now an excellent chance that the retreat is permanent. Victory over Covid has not yet arrived, but it is growing close. After almost a year and a half of sickness, death, grieving and isolation, the progress is cause for genuine joy.More than 60 percent of American adults have received at least one vaccine shot, and the share is growing by about two percentage points per week. Among unvaccinated people, a substantial number have already had Covid and therefore have some natural immunity. “The virus is running out of places to be communicable,” Andy Slavitt, one of President Biden’s top Covid advisers, told me.
The share of Covid tests coming back positive has fallen below 3 percent for the first time since widespread testing began, and the number of hospitalized patients has fallen to the lowest point in 11 months, Dr. Eric Topol of the Scripps Research Translational Institute noted. For the first time since March 5 of last year, San Francisco General Hospital yesterday had no Covid patients — “a truly momentous day,” Dr. Vivek Jain said.
There are still important caveats. Covid remains especially dangerous in communities with low vaccination rates, as Slavitt noted, including much of the Southeast; these communities may suffer through future outbreaks. And about 600 Americans continue to die from the disease every day.
But the sharp decline in cases over the past month virtually guarantees that deaths will fall over the next month. The pandemic appears to be in an exponential-decay phase, as this helpful Times essay by Zoë McLaren explains. “Every case of Covid-19 that is prevented cuts off transmission chains, which prevents many more cases down the line,” she writes.
This isn’t merely a theoretical prediction. In Britain, one of the few countries to have given a shot to a greater share of the population than the U.S., deaths are down more than 99 percent from their peak.
Old records shed new light on smallpox outbreaks in 1700s – AP
A highly contagious disease originating far from America’s shores triggers deadly outbreaks that spread rapidly, infecting the masses. Shots are available, but a divided public agonizes over getting jabbed.
Sound familiar?
Newly digitized records — including a minister’s diary scanned and posted online by Boston’s Congregational Library and Archives — are shedding fresh light on devastating outbreaks of smallpox that hit the city in the 1700s.
And three centuries later, the parallels with the coronavirus pandemic are uncanny.
“How little we’ve changed,” said CLA archivist Zachary Bodnar, who led the digitization effort, working closely with the New England Historic Genealogical Society.
“The fact that we’re finding these similarities in the records of our past is a very interesting parallel,” Bodnar said in an interview. “Sometimes the more we learn, the more we’re still the same, I guess.”
Smallpox was eradicated, but not before it sickened and killed millions worldwide. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say the last natural outbreak of smallpox in the United States occurred in 1949. In 1980, the World Health Organization’s decision-making arm declared it eradicated, and no cases of naturally occurring smallpox have been reported since.
Just 2% of SARS-CoV-2−positive individuals carry 90% of the virus circulating in communities – PNAS
We analyze data from the fall 2020 pandemic response efforts at the University of Colorado Boulder, where more than 72,500 saliva samples were tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using qRT-PCR. All samples were collected from individuals who reported no symptoms associated with COVID-19 on the day of collection. From these, 1,405 positive cases were identified. The distribution of viral loads within these asymptomatic individuals was indistinguishable from what has been previously observed in symptomatic individuals. Regardless of symptomatic status, ∼50% of individuals who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 seem to be in noninfectious phases of the disease, based on having low viral loads in a range from which live virus has rarely been isolated. We find that, at any given time, just 2% of individuals carry 90% of the virions circulating within communities, serving as viral “supercarriers” and possibly also superspreaders.
Low Supply, High Demand: Pandemic Woes Send Food Prices Soaring – The Tablet
Nick Freudenberg, the director of the Urban Food Policy Institute at the City University of New York, attributes the rise to supply and demand.
“I think the food sector has been profoundly disrupted and it’s been disrupted on every front,” Freudenberg said. “Because they didn’t follow safety precautions in some of those big meatpacking plants and a lot of their workers got sick so they had to slow down.”
There’s a similar problem with distribution, according to Phil Lempert, who leads Insight Consumer Group and is known as the “Supermarket Guru.”
“It broke the supply chain,” Lempert said of the pandemic. “We didn’t have trucks where we needed them. There’s containers that used to bring in imported foods that are stuck in other countries.”
Even as much of the U.S. begins to reopen, the factors that lead to higher food prices are expected to linger. Even before COVID-19, food prices were already rising along with increases to minimum wage.
“Somebody’s got to pay for that,” Lempert said, “and that’s going to be you and me.”
Unvaccinated Americans are less worried about traveling than vaccinated Americans are, study says – CNBC
Vaccinated and unvaccinated Americans have different attitudes about the idea of traveling this spring, according to the findings from a marketing technology company. And they’re not different in the way you might assume.
With travel bookings surging, data from New York-based Zeta Global indicates that unvaccinated Americans appear more comfortable traveling — and to more densely-populated places — than vaccinated people.
Vaccinated people waiting longer to travel
Zeta Global conducted a survey of 3,700 U.S. consumers in mid-March and combined the results with information on those respondents’ hotel and airport visits in February and March.
In the survey, 67% of vaccinated respondents said they will not travel until the end of May, but only 59% of unvaccinated Americans indicated they would wait that long.
Vaccinated care more about health measures
More than 80% of vaccinated people who took the survey said they were concerned about the public health restrictions in place at intended destinations, compared with only 38% of unvaccinated travelers who shared that concern.
It’s possible that vaccinated people feel more comfortable traveling when there are health restrictions in place, while unvaccinated travelers are more interested in how local restrictions will limit their trip, said David Steinberg, Zeta Global’s CEO.
The survey indicated that 62% of unvaccinated travelers are “not at all” concerned with public health restrictions at their travel destinations, while only 19% of vaccinated travelers said the same.
New Coronavirus Detected In Patients At Malaysian Hospital; The Source May Be Dogs – NPR
When the COVID-19 pandemic first exploded, Dr. Gregory Gray started to wonder whether there might be other coronaviruses out there already making people sick and threatening to trigger another outbreak.
The problem was that he didn’t have a tool to look for them. The test for COVID-19, he says, is extremely limited. It tells whether one particular virus — SARS-CoV-2 — is present in a person’s respiratory tract, and nothing else.
“Diagnostics are very specific. They generally focus on known viruses,” says Gray, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Duke University’s Global Health Institute.
So he challenged a graduate student in his lab, Leshan Xiu, to make a more powerful test — one that would work like a COVID-19 test but could detect all coronaviruses, even the unknown ones.
Xiu not only rose to the challenge, but the tool he created worked better than expected.
In the first batch of samples tested last year, Gray and Xiu found evidence of an entirely new coronavirus associated with pneumonia in hospitalized patients — mostly in kids. This virus may be the eighth coronavirus known to cause disease in people, the team reports Thursday in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
The samples came from patients at a hospital in Sarawak, Malaysia, taken by a collaborator in 2017 and 2018. “These were deep nasal swabs, like doctors collect with the COVID-19 patients,” says Gray.
The patients had what looked like regular pneumonia. But in eight out of 301 samples tested, or 2.7%, Xiu and Gray found that the patients’ upper respiratory tracts were infected with a new canine coronavirus, i.e., a dog virus.
“That’s a pretty high prevalence of a [new] virus,” Gray says. “That’s remarkable.” So remarkable, in fact, that Gray actually thought maybe he and Xiu had made a mistake. Perhaps Xiu’s test wasn’t working quite right. “You always wonder if there was a problem in the lab,” he says.
[editor’s note: also read Researchers discover new coronavirus in East Malaysia]
FDA recommends not using syringes from Chinese firm after safety issues with vaccine injections – Reuters
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday asked healthcare providers to stop using certain syringes and needles manufactured by Chinese medical device maker Guangdong Haiou Medical Apparatus Co (HAIOU).
At least one pharmacist that Reuters spoke to said the syringes had been shipped for use with the Pfizer Inc /BioNTech SE COVID-19 vaccine.
An FDA spokesperson said the devices stopped being shipped in COVID-19 vaccination kits as of March 22. The agency does not believe that stopping use of these syringes will cause vaccination delays.
The FDA said it has received information about quality issues, including certain HAIOU needles detaching from the syringe and getting stuck to the patient’s arm after injection and a few incidents involving accidental needlestick injuries to healthcare providers.
Big Gaps in Vaccine Rates Across the US Worry Health Experts – AP
A steady crowd of people flowed into the New England Patriots’ stadium for their second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine this week in Massachusetts, which is nearing its goal of vaccinating more than 4 million and plans to close its biggest clinics in little more than a month.
In the Deep South, meanwhile, one of the largest clinics in Alabama shut down Wednesday and others will follow in the coming weeks because demand for the shot has plunged.
“They didn’t have long enough to test it,” said James Martin, 68, explaining why he has no plans to get the vaccine as he stopped for cigarettes at a convenience store in Clanton, Alabama. “They don’t know what the long-term effect is. That’s what makes me skeptical.”
A month after every adult in the U.S. became eligible for the vaccine, a distinct geographic pattern has emerged: The highest vaccination rates are concentrated in the Northeast, while the lowest ones are mostly in the South.
Experts say the gap reflects a multitude of factors, including political leanings, religious beliefs, and education and income levels.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
“It’s like hell.” As the Tokyo Olympics approach, a healthcare state of emergency has begun spreading across Japan.
Latin America will be a key beneficiary as the U.S. frees up COVID-19 vaccine doses for export.
European regulators have allowed the conditional use of sotrovimab, an intravenous monoclonal antibody, for treating people at risk for severe COVID-19.
The pricetag for ending the global pandemic? About $50 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund.
WHO: COVID-19 deaths likely two to three times higher than reported
Vaccine group buys 200 million J&J doses for distribution to poor countries
Japan approves the Moderna and AstraZeneca shots, hoping to speed up vaccinations.
Concern Growing Over Deadly ‘White Fungus’ in COVID Cases in India. The white fungus infection is rare, but can affect not just the lungs but also the stomach, kidney and brain.
Fungal infections in Covid patients in India has the government seeking to get a grip on the spread.
More than 3,000 cases of black fungus detected across 5 Indian states
India surpasses 26 million Covid-19 cases
Patients in Africa with severe Covid are more likely to die, research finds.
IMF urges $50 billion spending commitment to help end the coronavirus pandemic
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Corporations scramble to interpret signs of overheating US economy
The death of the office market was greatly exaggerated
Washington wakes up to Covid-fueled investment risks as crypto, SPACs tank
Biden vowed to ‘follow the science,’ but left many out with sudden mask guidance
Early results suggest the vaccine rollout in 12-to-15 year olds has gone “better than expected,” with more than 600,000 having received a shot already.
The vaccination rate in Ohio increased 28% after Gov. Mike DeWine announced a $1 million lottery for five lucky vaccinated residents. Maryland and New York also jumped aboard the vaccination lottery train.
“Thanks, CDC,” say mask manufacturers faced with a massive surplus following the agency’s new guidelines for mask wearing.
A New Jersey congressman faces scrutiny for apparently not following his own advice about profiteering off COVID-19.
Sudden sensorineural hearing loss was reported after people received COVID-19 vaccines but appeared to occur less frequently than expected, a preliminary analysis suggested. Incidence estimates of sudden sensorineural hearing loss after COVID-19 vaccination ranged from 0.3 to 4.1 per 100,000 per year based on Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) data, reported Eric Formeister, MD, MS, of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, and co-authors in JAMA Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery.
Electrospun nanofibrous filters capture 99.9 percent of coronavirus aerosols, study finds
As pandemic eases, many seniors have lost strength, may need rehabilitative services
Total COVID-19 deaths in US counties have been underestimated by 20%, indicates study
Schools that required masks, improved ventilation reported fewer COVID-19 cases: CDC study
Jill Biden recognizes Fauci as an ‘American hero’
Severely Swollen Tongues Are Affecting Some COVID Patients
Georgia Judges Offer Some Reduced Sentences for Offenders Who Get Vaccine
Average daily U.S. Covid cases fall below 30,000 for the first time in 11 months
Covid-19 cases in elementary schools are 37% lower when masks are required for staff, study says
New York and Maryland follow Ohio in creating Covid vaccine lottery
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
14 May 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Marginally Declines
April 2021 Headline Existing Home Sales: Rate Of Growth Continues To Slow
Rail Week Ending 15 May 2021 – Growth Surge Continues
Why We Need To Seriously Reconsider COVID-19 Vaccination Passports
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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