Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 17.8 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 28,935
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 675
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 82.4 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases IMPROVED and deaths IMPROVED
- Covid-19 linked to nearly 1 million excess deaths in 29 high-income countries last year
- The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine can now be stored in undiluted, thawed vials for up to 1 month in a refrigerator
- COVID Vax Protects the Unvaccinated in Nursing Homes
- Why are some Covid-19 vaccines working better for men than women?
- Paying More Will Solve The Labor Shortage Illusion
- Two more coronaviruses can infect people, studies suggest
- Two new SARS-like coronaviruses described in Russian horseshoe bats
- A mix-and-match vaccine strategy proved promising in preliminary data from the Spanish CombivacS trial.
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Does COVID Vax Protect the Unvaccinated in Nursing Homes? – MedPage
COVID-19 vaccines showed real-world effectiveness in nursing homes, with reduced cases among both vaccinated and unvaccinated residents, researchers found.
Among over 13,000 fully vaccinated residents, COVID-19 cases dropped from 822 incident cases within 0 to 14 days of the first dose to 38 cases at 14 days after the second dose, reported Elizabeth White, PhD, of Brown University School of Public Health in Providence, Rhode Island, and colleagues.
Cases also declined among the almost 4,000 unvaccinated residents, dropping from 173 cases within 0 to 14 days after the first vaccination clinic to 12 cases at more than 42 days after the clinic, they wrote in a correspondence in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Most infections in both groups were asymptomatic, ranging from 66.5% of cases in unvaccinated residents at 0-14 days after the first vaccination clinic to 83.3% of cases at more than 42 days afterwards.
“Robust vaccine coverage among residents and staff; together with the continued use of face masks and other infection-control measures, is likely to afford protection for small numbers of unvaccinated residents in congregate settings,” they wrote.
The authors noted the lack of “individual level data” about vaccine effectiveness in nursing homes because this population is absent from clinical trials, and because they can have impaired immune responses.
Low wages seem normal – New York Times
Why the continuing complaints about a labor shortage, then?
They are not totally misguided. For one thing, some Americans appear to have temporarily dropped out of the labor force because of Covid-19. Some high-skill industries may also be suffering from a true lack of qualified workers, and some small businesses may not be able to absorb higher wages. Finally, there is a rollicking partisan debate about whether expanded jobless benefits during the pandemic have caused workers to opt out.
For now, some combination of these forces — together with a rebounding economy — has created the impression of labor shortages. But companies have an easy way to solve the problem: Pay more.
That so many are complaining about the situation is not a sign that something is wrong with the American economy. It is a sign that corporate executives have grown so accustomed to a low-wage economy that many believe anything else is unnatural.
The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine can now be stored in undiluted, thawed vials for up to 1 month in a refrigerator – FDA
- Based on a review of recent data submitted by Pfizer Inc. today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is authorizing undiluted, thawed Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine vials to be stored in the refrigerator at 2°C to 8°C (35°F to 46°F) for up to 1 month. Previously, thawed, undiluted vaccine vials could be stored in the refrigerator for up to 5 days.
- Pfizer Inc. submitted data to the FDA to demonstrate that undiluted, thawed vials of its COVID-19 vaccine are stable at refrigerator temperatures for up to 1 month.
- The updated Fact Sheet for Healthcare Providers Administering Vaccine (Vaccination Providers) is intended to help frontline workers understand the revised storage time. The Fact Sheet is available on the FDA’s web site.
A mix-and-match vaccine strategy proved promising in preliminary data from the Spanish CombivacS trial. – Nature
Vaccinating people with both the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines produces a potent immune response against the virus SARS-CoV-2, researchers conducting a study in Spain have found.
Preliminary results from the trial of more than 600 people — announced in an online presentation on 18 May — are the first to show the benefits of combining different coronavirus vaccines. A UK trial of a similar strategy reported1 safety data last week, and is expected to deliver further findings on immune responses soon.
Because of safety concerns, several European countries are already recommending that some or all people who were given a first dose of the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford, UK, and AstraZeneca in Cambridge, UK, get another vaccine for their second dose. Researchers hope that such mix-and-match COVID-19 vaccination regimens will trigger stronger, more robust immune responses than will two doses of a single vaccine, while simplifying immunization efforts for countries facing fluctuating supplies of the various vaccines.
“It appears that the Pfizer vaccine boosted antibody responses remarkably in one-dose AstraZeneca vaccinees. This is all around wonderful news,” says Zhou Xing, an immunologist at McMaster University in Hamilton, Canada.
Two more coronaviruses can infect people, studies suggest – Science
Eight children hospitalized with pneumonia in Malaysia several years ago had evidence of infections with a novel coronavirus similar to one found in dogs, a research team reports today. Only seven coronaviruses were previously known to infect people, the latest being SARS-CoV-2, the spark of the COVID-19 pandemic. The discovery of this likely new human pathogen, along with the report of an instance of a coronavirus that appears to have jumped from pigs to people many years ago, could significantly expand which members of the viral family pose another global threat.
“I think the more we look, the more we will find that these coronaviruses are crossing species everywhere,” says Stanley Perlman, a virologist at the University of Iowa who was not involved in the new work.
The researchers have not definitely linked either new virus to human disease. And there’s no evidence that the two new coronaviruses can transmit between people—each infection may have been a dead-end jump into a person from a nonhuman host. But many researchers worry the viruses may evolve that ability within a person or the animals they normally infect. A complete genome sequence of the virus found in one Malaysian patient, reported today in Clinical Infectious Diseases, reveals a chimera of genes from four coronaviruses: two previously identified canine coronaviruses, one known to infect cats, and what looks like a pig virus.
This is the first report suggesting a caninelike coronavirus can replicate in people, and further studies will need to confirm the ability. The researchers have grown the virus in dog tumor cells but not yet in human cells.
Two new SARS-like coronaviruses described in Russian horseshoe bats – News-Medical
Horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus sp.) are known reservoirs of zoonotic coronaviruses (CoVs). Over the last twenty years, viruses thought to have originated from these bats have given rise to two severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic outbreaks in humans: SARS-CoV-1 in 2002/2003, which was limited mostly to Asia, and the currently globally circulating SARS-CoV-2, first identified in December 2019.
Several species of horseshoe bat are distributed across much of Eurasia and Northern Africa, and host a number of as yet unidentified SARS-like coronaviruses. As much of the world remains in the grip of the 2019 SARS-CoV-2 outbreak almost 18 months on, it is of great importance to identify and determine the prevalence of SARS-adjacent coronaviruses in horseshoe bat populations where future epidemics could arise from.
A group of Russian scientists, led by Dr. Sergey Alkhovsky of the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, have identified two novel coronaviruses circulating in local Russian horseshoe bat populations. Their data provide critical insights into the genetic diversity of bat coronaviruses, as well as regional and temporal conditions that may encourage the spread of infection.
The preprint research paper is available to read on the bioRxiv* server.
Why are some Covid-19 vaccines working better for men than women? – EurekAlert
MSU researcher is studying, raising awareness about the role of sex in the efficacy of vaccines that make use of nanomedicine.
If there’s one take-home message for the general public about the coronavirus vaccines approved in the U.S., it’s that they are remarkably effective.
But Michigan State University’s Morteza Mahmoudi is raising awareness about an important subtlety: The vaccines developed by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech appear to work slightly better for men than for women.
Both vaccines use tiny orbs, or nanoparticles, to deliver their active ingredients to cells in our immune systems. For years, Mahmoudi has been studying how and why nanomedicines — therapies that use nanoparticles — can affect patients differently based on their sex and he believes this could be a factor with the vaccines.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also drawn attention to sex differences because its rare blood-clotting side effect has affected predominantly women. The J&J vaccine, however, uses modified adenoviruses rather than nanoparticles to help teach our immune systems to fight off the coronavirus. That said, Mahmoudi has shown in earlier work that viruses can transfect the cells of men and women differently.
Now, he’s focusing on the nanomedicine component. He’s published three peer-reviewed papers calling attention to the role of sex in nanomedicine studies, both in general and as they relate to coronavirus vaccines.
“We need to monitor these sex differences and report them to the scientific community and the public,” said Mahmoudi, an assistant professor in the Department of Radiology and the Precision Health Program. “It can be very helpful in developing future strategies and as we prepare for future threats.”
First vaccine boosters could be needed as soon as September, executives say – The Hill
The first Americans who received their COVID-19 vaccines could need a “booster” shot as soon as September, the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna told Axios.
“The data that I see coming, they are supporting the notion that likely there will be a need for a booster somewhere between eight and 12 months.” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said during a virtual event with the news outlet on Wednesday.
That means that those who received the vaccine early this year could require a booster shot in September or October to help protect against contracting, or spreading, COVID-19.
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel confirmed the timeline, according to Axios.
“I think as a country we should rather be two months too early, than two months too late with outbreaks in several places,” Bancel said in an email.
“People at highest risks (elderly, healthcare workers) were vaccinated in December/January,” he wrote. “So I would do [a] September start for those at highest risk.”
Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also told Axios during the event that Americans will “almost certainly” require a COVID-19 booster shot.
COVID Vaccine Push Produced 9 New Billionaires, Nonprofit Says in Call to End Drug Monopolies – Newsweek
The push to develop and distribute vaccines against the coronavirus has created nine new billionaires, according to a nonprofit group pushing to end drug monopolies.
The People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of organizations and activists, said in a press release Thursday that the newfound billionaires gained their wealth “thanks to the excessive profits pharmaceutical corporations with monopolies on COVID vaccines are making.”
“Between them, the nine new billionaires have a combined net wealth of $19.3 billion, enough to fully vaccinate all people in low-income countries 1.3 times,” the group said. “Meanwhile, these countries have received only 0.2 percent of the global supply of vaccines, because of the massive shortfall in available doses, despite being home to 10 percent of the world’s population.”
Among the list of new billionaires are Stéphane Bancel, Moderna’s CEO; Ugur Sahin, BioNTech‘s CEO and co-founder; Timothy Springer, an immunologist and founding investor of Moderna; and Noubar Afeyan, Moderna’s chairman; Juan Lopez-Belmonte, chairman of ROVI, a company that manufactures and packages the Moderna vaccine; Robert Langer, a scientist and founding investor in Moderna; Zhu Tao, co-founder of CanSino Biologics; Qiu Dongxu, co-founder and senior vice president at CanSino Biologics; and Mao Huinhoa, also a co-founder and senior vice president at CanSino Biologics.
In addition to the nine new billionaires, the alliance also found that eight existing billionaires have seen their combined wealth increase by more than $32 billion—or enough to fully vaccinate India, according to the group.
The People’s Vaccine Alliance said they combed through the Forbes Rich List to “highlight the massive wealth being generated for a handful or people from vaccines which were largely public funded.”
Covid-19 linked to nearly 1 million excess deaths in 29 high-income countries last year, study finds – CNN
The pandemic likely contributed to an additional 979,000 deaths in 2020 across 29 high-income countries, according to a study led by an international team of scientists and published Wednesday in the British Medical Journal.
Researchers looked at data from 29 countries included in the Human Mortality Database, which collects data from national agencies and is run by scientists at the University of California Berkeley and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany.
These countries, which included the United States, Germany, and South Korea are all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). They compared the number of recorded deaths in 2020 to the number that would normally be expected based on data from the previous few years.
About 458,000 of the excess deaths, or nearly half, occurred in the US. The official Covid-19 death toll in the US in 2020 was 339,014.
The United Kingdom and Italy were also in the top three, with 94,000 and 89,000 excess deaths respectively.
“In most countries, the estimated number of excess deaths exceeded the number of reported deaths from Covid-19,” the team, led by Dr. Nazrul Islam of the Nuffield Department of Population Health at the University of Oxford, wrote. “For example, in both the US and the UK (that is, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland combined), the estimated excess deaths were more than 30% higher than the number of reported Covid-19 deaths, and they were more than 50% higher in some other countries, including Spain, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Lithuania, Slovakia, Estonia, and South Korea.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico will remain restricted through at least June 21, with only trade and essential travel allowed until then, the Department of Homeland Security said Thursday.
The E.U. is reopening to fully vaccinated visitors or those coming from countries considered Covid-safe.
Once a COVID success story, Taiwan now has multiple community outbreaks disrupting daily life.
COVID-19 cases in summer 2020 was not as low as previously thought, new genome-based model suggests
UK Begins ‘Booster’ Shot Trial of 7 Different COVID-19 Vaccines
EU officially approves entry for vaccinated travelers
Hungary Opts Out of EU’s Pfizer COVID Vaccine Deal. The European Union’s executive arm on Thursday finalized a third vaccine contract with Pfizer and BioNTech through 2023 for an additional 1.8 billion doses of their COVID-19 shot to share between the bloc’s countries,
China Blasts ‘Some Countries’ for Vaccinating Citizens Before Sharing Shots
Brazil detects first case of coronavirus variant first found in India
Argentina reports record number of Covid-19 cases as new restrictions are set to begin
UK defends allowing direct flights from India as variant cases rise 28% in 2 days
1.5 million people in Nepal unable to get second Covid-19 vaccine dose as India curbs exports
Malaysia records highest daily increase in Covid-19 cases
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
How America failed students with disabilities during the pandemic
U.S. state laws vary for minors trying to get vaccinated without a parent’s permission.
The vast majority of U.S. nursing homes has had at least one COVID-19 outbreak, with an average of three outbreaks per center, according to GAO analysis of CDC data.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta reminded the public that making counterfeit COVID-19 vaccination cards constitutes forging of an official document, a federal crime.
Actress Salma Hayek reveals that she suffered from COVID-19 last year and continues to feel less energetic than usual.
Nearly 3% of Americans take immune-weakening drugs that may limit COVID vaccine response
Emergent CEO: J&J vaccine production could resume in days
CNN Acknowledges ‘Inappropriate’ Conduct by Chris Cuomo in Advising Brother
Struggling renters can get assistance for up to 18 months. Here’s everything you need to know
U.S. reports fewer than 30,000 Covid cases for five straight days
Average daily pace of Covid-19 vaccinations down 46% from peak in April, CDC data shows
Biden signs bill to counter rise in anti-Asian hate crimes during Covid-19 pandemic
White House leaves possibility open to using unused Covid-19 relief money for infrastructure
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2021 Leading Economic Index Increased
15 May 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Improved
Work-from-home For Life? Why Companies Around The World Want To Make Remote Work Permanent.
May 2021 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Index Declined
15 May 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improvement Continues
Infographic Of The Day: The State Of Household Debt In America
3 Lessons The COVID-19 Pandemic Can Teach Us About Preventing Chronic Diseases
European Union Seeks To Open Its Borders To Vaccinated Travelers This Summer
Hundreds Of PPP Loans Went To Fake Farms In Absurd Places
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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