Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 450 K to 493 K (consensus 460 K), and the Department of Labor reported 444,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 535,250 (reported last week as 534,000) to 504,750
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 82,742,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 15,975,448 , down from last week’s 16,862,016
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 81 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 83 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending May 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 5,000 from 473,000 to 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 504,750, a decrease of 30,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 534,000 to 535,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7 percent for the week ending May 8, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 8 was 3,751,000, an increase of 111,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 15,000 from 3,655,000 to 3,640,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,681,000, an increase of 24,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 8,750 from 3,665,000 to 3,656,250.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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