Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 18.1 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 5.7 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 29,387
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 385
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 82.1 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases were little changed and deaths worsened
- Coronavirus vaccines may not work in some people. It’s because of their underlying conditions
- CDC updates cruise guidance, says vaccinated passengers don’t need COVID test
- Deadly Fungi Are the Newest Emerging Microbe Threat All Over the World
- Mucormycosis: The ‘black fungus’ maiming Covid patients in India
- Superfast, portable COVID-19 testing method detects the virus much faster than currently available methods
- India reports record day of virus deaths as cases level off
- What Is SM-102? Moderna COVID Vaccine Ingredient Claim Debunked by Scientists
- China’s Sinopharm COVID Vaccine Gets Third Shot in UAE
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
India reports record day of virus deaths as cases level off – AP
India’s total virus cases since the pandemic began swept past 25 million on Tuesday as the country registered more than 260,000 new cases and a record 4,329 fatalities in the past 24 hours.
The numbers continue a trend of falling cases after infections dipped below 300,000 for the first time in weeks on Monday. Active cases in the country also decreased by more than 165,000 on Tuesday — the biggest dip in weeks.
But deaths have continued to rise and hospitals are still swamped by patients.
India has recorded nearly 280,000 virus deaths since the pandemic began. Experts warn that both the number of deaths and total reported cases are likely vast undercounts.
Infections in India have surged since February in a disastrous turn blamed on more contagious variants as well as government decisions to allow massive crowds to gather for religious festivals and political rallies.
Coronavirus vaccines may not work in some people. It’s because of their underlying conditions. – Washington Post
Vaccine makers excluded immunocompromised people from their clinical trials in an understandable rush to develop a way to protect as many people as quickly as possible. As a result, there’s limited information about how this group is reacting to the shots, as well as to the loosening of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention restrictions.
The ability of such patients to fend off the novel coronavirus is not just a footnote in the pandemic involving one unlucky group — but potentially a critical part of the narrative about how new, more contagious variants are continuing to emerge worldwide.
The interaction between immunocompromised people and the virus is perhaps one of the pandemic’s most fraught questions. Case studies have detailed how some patients can have active infections for many months — resulting in questions about whether they can act as incubators for mutations that lead to new variants and underscoring the need for an effective vaccine strategy not just for their sake, but for the greater good.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky and White House adviser Anthony S. Fauci highlighted the challenges of such patients and the vaccines in a recent news briefing in which they acknowledged that the first documented case of the so-called New York variant, B. 1.526, was found in a patient with advanced AIDS.
“Early studies actually show that these variants could emerge in a single host — in a single immunocompromised host,” Walensky said.
But neither the federal government nor vaccine makers Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna has stepped up to do a comprehensive study about whether the vaccines protect people with immune issues. As such, most of the research has been conducted piecemeal in academic centers — and many are reaching differing, sometimes conflicting, conclusions.
Early data suggest that the vaccines offer some protection, although perhaps to a lesser degree, for most patients with HIV and autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis. But there’s worry about people with blood cancers and transplant recipients. Some of the weakened response appears to be related to certain immunosuppressive drugs, and potentially a commonly prescribed steroid.
CDC updates cruise guidance, says vaccinated passengers don’t need COVID test – USA Today
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention late Friday updated its technical guidance for test cruises and initial cruises with paying passengers.
Significantly in the new guidance, the agency says that fully vaccinated passengers do not need to be tested during embarkation and disembarkation, nor during their sailings – unless they are showing COVID-19 symptoms or have been exposed to the virus within 14 days of their sailing.
Testing is required for all unvaccinated passengers.
The agency further advised cruise lines it’s acceptable to use approved antigen testing, with PCR testing preferred. The agency also added wording in several areas leaving decisions to the discretion of the cruise lines, such as whether a vaccinated passenger who has been exposed to the virus but has no symptoms may board.
On Saturday, Royal Caribbean President and CEO Michael Bayley posted on Facebook that the latest updates: “All reflect the significant progress made with the vaccines. Reading the updates last night and this morning gives me increased optimism.”
Deadly Fungi Are the Newest Emerging Microbe Threat All Over the World – Scientific American
Tom Chiller looked up from his e-mails and scrubbed his hands over his face and shaved head. Chiller is a physician and an epidemiologist and, in normal times, a branch chief at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
… Shrugging off exhaustion, Chiller focused on his in-box again. Buried in it was a bulletin forwarded by one of his staff that made him sit up and grit his teeth. Hospitals near Los Angeles that were handling an onslaught of COVID were reporting a new problem: Some of their patients had developed additional infections, with a fungus called Candida auris. The state had gone on high alert.
… C. auris did enter the U.S. Before the end of 2016, 14 people contracted it, and four died. Since then, the CDC had been tracking its movement, classifying it as one of a small number of dangerous diseases that doctors and health departments had to tell the agency about. By the end of 2020 there had been more than 1,500 cases in the U.S., in 23 states. And then COVID arrived, killing people, overwhelming hospitals, and redirecting all public health efforts toward the new virus and away from other rogue organisms.
… But from the start of the pandemic, Chiller had felt uneasy about its possible intersection with fungal infections. The first COVID case reports, published by Chinese scientists in international journals, described patients as catastrophically ill and consigned to intensive care: pharmaceutically paralyzed, plugged into ventilators, threaded with I.V. lines, loaded with drugs to suppress infection and inflammation. Those frantic interventions might save them from the virus—but immune-damping drugs would disable their innate defenses, and broad-spectrum antibiotics would kill off beneficial bacteria that keep invading microbes in check. Patients would be left extraordinarily vulnerable to any other pathogen that might be lurking nearby.
Chiller and his colleagues began quietly reaching out to colleagues in the U.S. and Europe, asking for any warning signs that COVID was allowing deadly fungi a foothold. Accounts of infections trickled back from India, Italy, Colombia, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and France. Now the same deadly fungi were surfacing in American patients as well: the first signs of a second epidemic, layered on top of the viral pandemic. And it wasn’t just C. auris. Another deadly fungus called Aspergillus was starting to take a toll as well.
[editor’s note: this post deserves a full read. ]
Mucormycosis: The ‘black fungus’ maiming Covid patients in India – BBC
Mucormycosis is a very rare infection. It is caused by exposure to mucor mould which is commonly found in soil, plants, manure, and decaying fruits and vegetables. “It is ubiquitous and found in soil and air and even in the nose and mucus of healthy people,” says Dr Nair.
It affects the sinuses, the brain and the lungs and can be life-threatening in diabetic or severely immunocompromised individuals, such as cancer patients or people with HIV/AIDS.
Doctors believe mucormycosis, which has an overall mortality rate of 50%, may be being triggered by the use of steroids, a life-saving treatment for severe and critically ill Covid-19 patients.
Steroids reduce inflammation in the lungs for Covid-19 and appear to help stop some of the damage that can happen when the body’s immune system goes into overdrive to fight off coronavirus. But they also reduce immunity and push up blood sugar levels in both diabetics and non-diabetic Covid-19 patients.
It’s thought that this drop in immunity could be triggering these cases of mucormycosis.
“Diabetes lowers the body’s immune defences, coronavirus exacerbates it, and then steroids which help fight Covid-19 act like fuel to the fire,” says Dr Nair.
Patients suffering from the fungal infection typically have symptoms of stuffy and bleeding nose; swelling of and pain in the eye; drooping of eyelids; and blurred and finally, loss of vision. There could be black patches of skin around the nose.
Doctors say most of their patients arrive late, when they are already losing vision, and doctors have to surgically remove the eye to stop the infection from reaching the brain.
In some cases, doctors in India say, patients have lost their vision in both eyes. And in rare cases, doctors have to surgically remove the jaw bone in order to stop the disease from spreading.
An anti-fungal intravenous injection which costs 3,500 rupees ($48) a dose and has to be administered every day for up to eight weeks is the only drug effective against the disease.
[editor’s note: also read Shortage of antifungal drug as mucormycosis cases rise in India, states press panic button and Govt asks to hike production of drug to treat ‘black fungus’]
Superfast, portable COVID-19 testing method detects the virus much faster than currently available methods – EurekAlert
Detecting the presence of the virus requires amplifying the numbers of the biomarker, such as the copies of viral ribonucleic acid in the common polymerase chain reaction technique for COVID-19 detection, or amplifying the binding signal for a target biomarker. The group’s method amplifies the binding signal for a target biomarker.
“Our biosensor strip is similar to commercially available glucose test strips in shape, with a small microfluidic channel at the tip to introduce our test fluid,” said Xian. “Within the microfluidic channel, a few electrodes are exposed to fluid. One is coated with gold, and COVID-relevant antibodies are attached to the gold surface via a chemical method.”
During measurement, sensor strips are connected to a circuit board via a connector, and a short electrical test signal gets sent between the gold electrode bonded with COVID antibody and another auxiliary electrode. This signal is then returned to the circuit board for analysis.
“Our sensor system, a circuit board, uses a transistor to amplify the electrical signal, which then gets converted into a number on the screen,” said Xian. “The magnitude of this number depends on the concentration of antigen, the viral protein, present within our test solution.”
While the system’s sensor strips clearly must be discarded after use, the test circuit board is reusable. This means the cost of testing may be greatly reduced. The versatility of this technology goes far beyond detecting COIVD-19.
CDC Recommends US Schools Continue to Use Masks – Reuters
Schools in the United States should continue to use masks for the 2020-2021 academic year as all students will not be fully vaccinated, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Saturday.
The CDC in its latest guidance https://bit.ly/3olfGyP said all kindergarten through grade 12 schools “should implement and layer prevention strategies and should prioritize universal and correct use of masks and physical distancing.”
The recommendation comes after the agency on Thursday said fully vaccinated people do not need to wear masks outdoors and can avoid wearing them indoors in most places.
The CDC said masks should be worn at all times by all people in school facilities and buses, while maintaining a six foot distance between teachers and students.
China’s Sinopharm COVID Vaccine Gets Third Shot in UAE – Newsweek
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will offer a third shot to recipients of the Chinese state-back Sinopharm vaccine six months after the initial two-shot vaccination, officials said Tuesday.
Recipients in the UAE have voiced concerns about the Sinopharm vaccine’s efficacy, with some already receiving a third shot. China’s top disease control official said in April that current vaccines offer limited protection against COVID-19.
“As part of the state’s proactive strategy to provide maximum protection for society, the door has been opened for the public to receive an additional supportive dose of Sinopharm vaccine for people who have received the vaccine previously and who have completed more than six months on the second dose,” said Dr. Farida al-Hosani, an Emirati health spokeswoman, during a statement broadcast on state television.
The UAE initially said the vaccine was 86% effective in the first public release of information on the shot’s efficacy. But in the time since, it has offered no study data to support its figures.
In March, an official from a state-linked company distributing Sinopharm in the UAE acknowledged “a very small number” had already received booster shots of Sinopharm in the UAE. That interview with a state-owned radio network sparked confusion among those who already received Sinopharm and were later told they couldn’t then change to another vaccine.
What Is SM-102? Moderna COVID Vaccine Ingredient Claim Debunked by Scientists – Newsweek
A conspiracy theory regarding the Moderna vaccine is being circulated on social media, in which anti-vaccination proponents raise concerns that the shot contains an ingredient that is unsafe for human use.
The conspiracy theory being spread by users on Twitter and TikTok highlights one Moderna vaccine ingredient; a lipid, or type of fat, known as SM-102.
According to Moderna, SM-102 is indeed listed among the ingredients of the vaccine.
Many of the social media posts and videos then highlight U.S. biochemical manufacturing company Cayman Chemical, which sells SM-102 as a research chemical.
The site states that the SM-102 product it sells is “for research use only, not for human or veterinary use.”
It also includes a safety sheet that identifies hazards such as flammability and “harmful if swallowed,” among others.
However, what the videos and posts do not show is that the SM-102 product sold by Cayman is a mixture of two substances—SM-102 and chloroform. It lists chloroform as the dangerous component, and not SM-102, which is listed as “other.”
Substances are often prepared mixed-in with other chemicals that help them to dissolve. These substances that help with the dissolving process are known as solvents, and chloroform is used in this way. Even water can be used as a solvent.
Al Edwards, impact lead for the pharmacy research division at the University of Reading, told Newsweek: “Some solvents are often used to prepare things like lipids, but are removed after use.
“I don’t know the exact process used to make the Moderna vaccine, but even if it did involve dissolving the lipid in a solvent such as chloroform, any residual amount of solvent left in the vaccine—if not fully removed—would be measured very precisely and listed as an ingredient. It would also only be allowed if it was known to be safe.”
Chloroform is not listed as an ingredient in the Moderna vaccine.
Ed Hutchinson, a lecturer at the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Virus Research, told Newsweek it is “entirely normal” for chemicals to be supplied in different grades of purity and that ones destined for human use would be treated with the greatest care.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Once a covid success story, Taiwan struggles with a vaccine shortage
The Political Fix: As brutal Covid-19 second wave moves into rural India, Modi deploys spin doctors
How India Can Survive the Virus
Delhi government announces compensation for families of Covid-19 victims
New Delhi’s cases drop, but worries are shifting to India’s countryside.
Heavy Rains Expose Hundreds of Shallow Graves in India
India Says ‘Minuscule’ Clotting Cases After AstraZeneca Vaccine
India’s Serum Institute hopes to start delivering Covid-19 vaccines to COVAX by end of 2021
People who have had dengue are twice as likely to develop symptomatic COVID-19
Cancel The Olympics, Says Tokyo Doctors Association
A new poll in Japan finds 83 percent don’t want the Olympics this summer.
An Israeli airstrike damaged Gaza’s only lab for processing coronavirus tests, officials said.
Macau will require some travelers to quarantine for over a month.
Taiwan to close all schools amid rising Covid-19 cases
Thailand reports highest surge in daily Covid-19 deaths
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Oxford scientist: “Morally wrong” to vaccinate kids before high risk citizens in poorer countries
Credit Card Balance Declines Are Largest Among Older, Wealthier Borrowers
Even Dialysis Patients Can Maintain COVID Antibodies for Months
Airlines could soon start weighing passengers before flights
Strippers are back on the job but COVID rules are hurting their pay
Fact-checking the Paul-Fauci flap over Wuhan lab funding
Vaccines didn’t stop the Yankees’ covid-19 outbreak. But the case proves how well they work.
With more than a third of the U.S. population fully vaccinated, rates of vaccination uptick across the country are slowing, and cities and states are trying to find creative ways to incentivize the shots.
As of May 8, the B.1.617 variant made up 3% of all cases in the U.S., according to the CDC.
Anne Schuchat, MD, the second-highest-ranking official at the CDC, announced she will leave the agency this summer, the second exit of a high-profile official in the last few months.
The Infectious Diseases Society of America backed the CDC’s masking guidance in a statement, but warned that the recommendations “should not send the message that the pandemic is over.”
Weekly COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. fell to the lowest it’s been in 14 months, with new cases on the decline for the fifth week in a row.
Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate produced strong immune responses in early-stage clinical trials; an international phase III trial will launch in the coming weeks.
Even Dialysis Patients Can Maintain COVID Antibodies for Months
Around half of U.S. parents unwilling to vaccinate their children against COVID-19
GOP candidate for Nevada governor tests positive for COVID-19
Ohio reports higher vaccination rate after announcing lottery for shots
Large US hospital chain suing patients amid pandemic
CDC study finds disparities in Covid vaccine rates between rural and urban areas
CDC says 600,000 kids ages 12 to 15 have received Covid vaccine shots in last week
About 60% of people 18 and older in the US have had at least one Covid-19 vaccine
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2021 Residential Building Growth Mixed
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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